A Thai Democrat?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123264907613206837.html
Prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva isn't practicing what he preaches.

By COLUM MURPHY | From today's Wall Street Journal Asia
BANGKOK

"If we can get the economy rolling again, if we achieve a more stable environment . . . then I will look for the appropriate time to return power to the people."

It's a hedged pledge from Thailand's third prime minister in four months, Abhisit Vejjajiva. In the wake of the September 2006 military coup, the 44-year-old Eton- and Oxford-educated economist seems the best hope so far for Thailand to finally embrace full democracy. Mr. Abhisit enjoys a reputation as a liberal, clean and reform-minded leader. Yet even he wasn't elected to his current position by the Thai people; he took office in December 2008 after the last government fell amid street protests.


Tim FoleyThat puts the British-born Mr. Abhisit in an awkward position to get Thailand back on the democratic track. It's important to his people, Thailand's neighbors and its biggest ally -- the United States -- that he succeeds. Thailand is one of Southeast Asia's biggest economies and a major gateway to the region. It's an increasingly important strategic ally for the West as China expands its influence and Burma's generals drive that country deeper into chaos. A politically stable Bangkok could also help fight transnational issues such as human trafficking and trade in illegal narcotics.

"Obviously, I would have preferred to come to power under different circumstances," the prime minister tells me in an interview earlier this month at Government House. "But I think what matters to the people now is whether the government can make sure that the country gets through both the economic and political crises."



The two are, in fact, related. Political crises have discouraged one of the country's main sources of income -- tourists -- from coming to the Land of Smiles. Thailand's export-driven economy has slumped in the face of recessions in its big trading partners. The Ministry of Finance estimates that the country will grow between zero and 2% this year. Unemployment, a key concern, is expected to jump to 900,000 this year from the current half a million.

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Read the complete interview and listen to the podcast at FEER.com.
Mr. Abhisit has reacted fast. He announced an $8 billion "Plan of Action" three weeks ago, which includes low-interest loans to farmers, aid to the elderly and urban poor, job creation and expanded free education. The plan is also a way for an unelected leader to gain popularity among Thailand's poor in the north and northeast provinces -- who historically supported Mr. Abhisit's political rival, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Mr. Abhisit insists that his economic blueprint isn't meant to mimic Mr. Thaksin's spending. While in the past he pledged that any government led by him would not "go down the populist route," today he justifies his actions: "I think it is a standard stimulus package in the Keynesian tradition."

Regardless of the impetus, pouring out cash seems to have been a successful political gambit. Thailand held parliamentary by-elections earlier this month, and Mr. Abhisit's Democrat Party-led coalition came out on top, winning 20 of 29 seats, plus the governorship of the capital, Bangkok. "They say politics is the art of the possible," he says. "We have put together a coalition . . . the country is already seeing a difference."

One big difference, of course, is the lack of political challenge from Mr. Thaksin's now-defunct Thai Rak Thai party, which was disbanded by a tribunal set up in the coup's aftermath. Mr. Thaksin then backed the newly formed People's Power Party from exile abroad. Yet that party, too, was disbanded by judges in the face of street protests late last year. Mr. Abhisit doesn't seem concerned about the fate of Mr. Thaksin and his proxies at the hands of the courts.

"On one side there are people who attach great importance to electoral politics and majority rule -- and rightly so," the prime minister says. "But the other side looks at the other aspect -- the essential aspect -- of democracy, which is accountability, and what has led the country into this situation is that the majority in the past abused power, pretty much broke all the rules."

Certainly, the multibillionaire CEO-turned-politician Mr. Thaksin was no angel. Yet his main "mistake" was to win over the loyalty of the bulk of Thai voters through the one-man-one-vote parliamentary system. His power base threatened the cozy status quo enjoyed by Thailand's army, urban elites and favored entrenched business concerns. Mr. Abhisit, a member of the Bangkok elite, ran against Mr. Thaksin's proxies in December 2007 and lost.

Mr. Abhisit likes to emphasize accountability and the rule of law. But so far he hasn't practiced what he preaches. His government has watched as the angry mobs that felled the last, elected government get off largely scot-free. Mr. Abhisit responds: "I think it is up to the police, the attorney-general and the courts." Mr. Abhisit has appointed one of the protest leaders, Kasit Piromya, as foreign minister. He is also emphasizing his loyalty to the monarchy by cracking down on Web sites suspected of slandering Thailand's king.

Yet the confident Mr. Abhisit thinks he can forge a new kind of democracy for Thailand. "I think that each country could have a unique set of rules, but not contrary to the fundamental principles," he says. "The army should be professional armed forces and they shouldn't be dragged back into politics." Let's hope not, for his sake -- and for Thailand's.

Mr. Murphy is deputy editor of the Far Eastern Economic Review.