Citation by Easybib Save this citation Do the European Parliamentary Elections Matter? Interviewee: Judy Dempsey, Nonresident Senior Associate, Carnegie Europe Author: Jeanne Park, Deputy Director May 22, 2014 Millions of voters from twenty-eight member states will take part in the European Parliament elections this week, a process that, for the first time, will partly influence who becomes the next EU chief. Judy Dempsey, an expert on European politics at Carnegie, says that it's been roughly two decades since the EU had a formidable Commission president that could hold sway with the various member states. She says this seems unlikely to change: "At the end of the day, it will be the leaders of the big European countries that will do the backroom deals." Meanwhile, Dempsey says that significant victories for far right or far left parties, which many are anticipating, could install a parliament with "a shrilled anti-American tone, more scepticism regarding the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and a more restrictive policy with regard to immigrant and human rights." Election posters of Socialist candidate for European Commission president Martin Schulz (R) of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and German chancellor and head of the Christian Democratic Union Angela Merkel, in Hamburg, Germany. (Photo: Fabian Bimmer/Courtesy Reuters)Why do these European Parliament elections matter? For the first time since the Lisbon Treaty came into force in 2009, the European Parliament will play a part in choosing the president of the European Commission. Who are the front-runners to replace outgoing president José Manuel Barroso? The two main front-runners are Jean-Claude Juncker, the former prime minister of Luxembourg, who is supported by the conservative grouping of the European People's Party, and Martin Schulz, a German politician and the current president of the European Parliament, supported by the European Parliament's Socialist grouping. A caveat: Even if either candidate's party manages to get the most votes, there will be a lot of horse-trading between the member states as to who will become Commission president. Much depends on the composition of the next European Parliament. It may be a hung parliament, or it may be a parliament consisting of very different alliances. At the end of the day, it will be the leaders of the big European countries that will do the backroom deals. How important is this job if so much power continues to reside with national leaders? The leaders of the EU countries have immense power, particularly German chancellor Angela Merkel. That being said, so much depends on the personality and confidence of the president of the Commission. It has been a long time since the EU had a president that could hold sway over the member states. The last was Jacques Delors (EC president 1985–1994). Since then, the Commission presidents have been generally weak and often beholden to the member states. There is a consensus that the outgoing president, José Manuel Barroso, has been very disappointing. But then it was Germany and France who supported his candidacy; neither Berlin nor Paris wanted a very strong Commission president who could challenge their own national interests. By the way, don't forget you can have very strong commissioners. The trade and competition commissioners have immense executive powers. Those two have been crucial in giving Europe a big influence when it comes to defending trade and competition policies. And they have worked hard in trying to negotiate TTIP. The general mood regarding the elections, across the twenty-eight member countries, seems to be one of apathy. What's behind this? "The recent economic crisis has fed into this sense of disillusionment with Europe and boosted eurosceptic parties across the continent." The turnout continues to decline. This time around, the recent economic crisis has fed into this sense of disillusionment with Europe and boosted eurosceptic parties across the continent. The two most prominent are Britain's UK Independence Party (UKIP) and France's Front National. But it must be said too that the mainstream parties standing for the European Parliament have not done the kind of grassroots campaigning necessary to defend Europe. In contrast, the nationalist/populist and fringe parties are exploiting this weakness with their own high-profile campaigning. They are well organized and highly motivated, and they are able to sell a very clear message. Does this apathy reveal a larger disconnect between Europeans and EU institutions? There is a huge disconnect, even though European Parliament deputies keep vowing to bridge this gap even through basic electioneering. This has not happened. Many observers are anticipating big gains for anti-EU parties in the upcoming European Parliament elections. How would victories for fringe parties (on the left and right) impact EU policymaking? "If the fringe parties do well, it could lead to paralysis in the European Parliament." If the fringe parties do well, it could lead to paralysis in the European Parliament. It could also lead to shifting alliances. If—and it's a big if—these fringe parties, left or right, could establish a united front in the parliament, then we could expect a shrilled anti-American tone, more scepticism over agreeing to TTIP, and a more restrictive policy with regard to immigrant and human rights. It is said that the European Parliament still lacks legitimacy in the eyes of many voters. What further steps can be taken to bridge the oft-referenced "democratic deficit"? Indeed, the European Parliament still lacks legitimacy. Voters across Europe cannot vote for Juncker or Schulz. Pan-European candidates do not exist. Voters can only vote for their own national list; or if they are living and registered in another EU country, they have to choose whether they will vote for the candidates in that country or their own country. Clearly, the gap between European citizens would narrow if there were genuine, pan-European political parties, and if the European Commission president was directly elected. In light of the crisis in Ukraine, there is a renewed interest in a common defense and security policy. How can the incoming European Parliament boost European foreign policy in the coming months and years? The Ukraine crisis has in fact exposed deep divisions in the EU over security and foreign policy. A real discussion about Europe's security and foreign policy has yet to begin. The outgoing European Parliament did some excellent analyses on the weaknesses of European foreign policy. But it relies on the member states to make that essential difference when it comes to giving the EU a serious foreign, security, and defense dimension. NATO in fact has been setting the agenda on security issues. Even then, the western European members of NATO cannot agree about deploying troops on a permanent basis to the eastern European members of NATO. Why have so many fringe parties and politicians aligned with Russian president Vladimir Putin? For many of these fringe parties, they find Putin's conservatism, his opposition to the so-called decadent West, and his anti-Americanism and anti-NATO stance appealing.
Saturday, May 24, 2014
Japan may set 2-stage approval by Cabinet over collective self-defense
Japan may set a two-stage approval process for the Cabinet before lifting the self-imposed ban on exercising the right to collective self-defense, ruling party sources said Thursday, as the outlook remains uncertain for the ruling bloc to reach an early agreement over the controversial issue. The New Komeito party has proposed to the Liberal Democratic Party of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that the Cabinet first approve a roadmap of legal challenges that need to be tackled, and then what steps Japan will take, including reinterpreting the Constitution to allow the exercise of the right to collective self-defense, the sources added. The two-stage process would enable the government to make necessary preparations to draft legislation after the first stage, while New Komeito can buy time and put off what could be the most contentious issue of deciding whether Japan should defend allies under armed attack in collective self-defense. The plan has been floated as a compromise for the ruling parties to avoid a rift and some LDP lawmakers have expressed their support, although the government has yet to give the nod, according to the sources. Tokyo is seeking early approval in time for the planned revision to Japan-U.S. defense cooperation guidelines by the end of the year, and hopes to revise relevant laws from an extraordinary Diet session in the fall. In the first round of approval, the Cabinet would recognize a set of domestic legal challenges in three major areas -- how to handle "gray zone" incidents that are not considered full-fledged military attacks on Japan, U.N. peacekeeping and collective security operations, and whether to exercise the right to collective self-defense, the sources said. The LDP and the junior coalition partner New Komeito started their debate earlier this week on reworking Japan's legal framework amid security threats from an assertive China and North Korea's nuclear and missile development programs. The parties have already decided to focus on "gray zone" incidents first, rather than tackling the controversial issue of collective self-defense from the start. Some New Komeito lawmakers have suggested the ruling bloc should not wait until they can agree on all of the three areas to start drafting legislation, but the LDP has insisted that the three should be a package. Prime Minister Abe is seeking to secure the support of the ruling parties for lifting the self-imposed ban by a Cabinet decision, but New Komeito remains cautious about reinterpreting the war-renouncing Article 9 of the Constitution that has never been amended since 1947. Japan has maintained it has the right to collective self-defense but cannot exercise it due to the constraints of Article 9. In a report submitted to Abe last week, a panel of security experts argued that collective self-defense falls under "the minimum" level of defense allowed under the supreme law and called for changing the current interpretation. ==Kyodo Copyright 2014 Kyodo News International. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/kyodo-news-international/140522/japan-may-set-2-stage-approval-cabinet-over-collective
Putin’s Singapore Dream Costs Crimea Banks and Burgers
“Putin brought us back home without firing a shot,” Pivnenko said. “He’s like family now.” http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-05-22/putin-s-singapore-dream-costs-crimeans-their-banks-and-burgers Bloomberg News Putin’s Singapore Dream Costs Crimea Banks and Burgers By Evgenia Pismennaya May 22, 2014 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Men stand at the entrance of a closed McDonald's restaurant in Sevastopol on April 5, 2014. Photographer: Vasiliy Batanov/AFP via Getty Images President Vladimir Putin is trying to transform Crimea into the Singapore of the Black Sea. That effort so far has cost Russia’s newest republic its entire banking system and all three of its McDonald’s. After Putin annexed Crimea in March, the government in Kiev banned all lenders operating under Ukrainian law from the region. Now almost every bank on the peninsula, from billionaire Igor Kolomoisky’s Privatbank, Ukraine’s largest, to Italy’s UniCredit SpA (UCG) has been shuttered. Unlike UniCredit, which is refunding deposits, Privatbank simply pocketed the cash, leaving its clients to seek compensation from Russia. “Thank God they decided to return my money,” said Alla Anisomova, a retiree in her 60s who gets by on less than $300 a month. Anisomova is among the thousands of people who have flocked to the former Privatbank branch on Lenin Street in Kerch, a city on the eastern edge of Crimea, to apply for redress from Russia’s Deposit Insurance Agency. The agency, which now controls the building, has pledged to return deposits of as much as 700,000 rubles ($20,000). Related: Ukraine Forces Suffer Worst Losses of Crisis Amid UnrestDeath Threats Haunt Eastern Ukraine as Gunmen Target Vote For Anisomova and Crimea’s other 600,000 or so pensioners, the headaches of navigating the new bureaucracy have an upside. Putin has increased their monthly stipends 50 percent and by July will raise them to double what Ukraine paid. Those payments are made through local post offices, in cash. Albania, Barbados The pension increases, deposit compensations and pay raises for 140,000 public workers are part of the $48 billion Russia may spend by the end of the decade to transform Crimea into a commercial hub similar to Singapore, according to Oleg Savelyev, head of the new Crimea Affairs Ministry. That’s about 10 times the annual output of the region of 2 million people. “I blew the dust off the book, ‘Singapore: From Third World to First’ by Lee Kuan Yew to have another read when I became minister,” Savelyev said in an interview in his office in the Economy Ministry in Moscow, where he was deputy minister before his promotion. “We will pursue Singapore’s model in Crimea, we’ll ensure a comfortable business environment there.” Lee, who ruled Singapore from 1959 to 1990, turned the former impoverished British colony into one of the wealthiest countries in the world. The World Bank ranks Singapore No. 1 on its annual ease of doing business survey. Russia is 92nd, just behind Albania and Barbados. New Russia “Regulatory principles in Crimea will be much better, simpler than in the rest of Russia,” said Savelyev, 48, who was added to the European Union’s sanctions list last month. “The region will not have the stifling bureaucratic system that Russia is notorious for. Our task is not to replicate the Russian model, but to create a much better one.” It’s not just banks that Russia has in mind for Crimea, there’s also gambling, tourism and wine. The peninsula will be designated a special economic zone, unique among the 84 regions of the world’s largest country. The casinos will probably be located in Yalta, acting Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov said. “Casinos won’t be scattered around Crimea,” Aksyonov said in an interview in Simferopol, the regional capital. “The zone will be confined to an area of 50 to 100 hectares.” Yalta, a resort city where Leo Tolstoy and Anton Chekhov did some of their writing and czars Alexander III and Nicholas II built palaces, became the main holiday destination for Soviet workers under communism. Now the real estate along Yalta’s picturesque embankment is the most expensive in Crimea. Roosevelt, Churchill The main attraction is the Livadia Palace, where wax statues of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin, U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and U.K. Prime Minister Winston Churchill commemorate their meeting in 1945 to discuss the reorganization of Europe after the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. “Crimea’s economic potential is incredible,” Aksyonov said. “We’ll only need Russian aid during the transitional period. We’ll return the funds with interest.” Vladimir Gubanov, who runs a division of Massandra, the winemaker founded by Nicholas II before Russia’s last czar and his family were murdered by the Bolsheviks, said he couldn’t agree more. Orders for Massandra’s wines from Russian retailers have doubled and even tripled since annexation, Gubanov said. “Taxes in Russia are lower than in Ukraine and the number of potential investors is many times higher,” Gubanov said. Lawmakers in Moscow are working on a draft bill that will offer tax and other incentives to stimulate exports, according to Savelyev, the minister for Crimea. Businesses there will operate under English commercial law rather than Russian legislation to attract foreign investment, he said. ‘Boldest Dreams’ “We will try to put our boldest dreams into practice,” Savelyev said. Those dreams sound promising, but they aren’t helping business owners now, said Natlia Kochurina, who owns a 10-room hotel in Kerch, where ancient Greeks established a colony about 2,600 years ago. Tourism is one of the mainstays of the economy of Crimea, which National Geographic magazine named one of the world’s top travel destinations last year, calling it “a diamond suspended from the south coast of Ukraine.” Colonized by ancient Romans as well as Greeks, Crimea was part of the Ottoman Empire until Catherine the Great’s lover Grigory Potemkin engineered Russia’s peaceful acquisition of the peninsula in 1783, writing “Russia needs its paradise.” Soviet leader Nikita Krushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine in 1954, a move Putin called a mistake that needed to be rectified. Presidential Election The peninsula attracted 6 million visitors last year, about 70 percent of whom were Ukrainian and 25 percent Russian. Kochurina said those numbers have plummeted since annexation as the government in Kiev urges people to boycott the region and skirmishes continue between federal forces and seperatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. Elections to replace Kremlin-backed President Viktor Yanukovych, who fled to Russia amid bloody protests in February, are slated to be held May 25 in Ukraine. Add to that the fact that all transactions are cash only because credit and debit cards no longer work and Kochurina said she’s starting to wonder how long she can stay in business. “Our future looks very vague,” Kochurina said. Another economic pillar, shipping, is also foundering, according to Leonid Orlov, deputy head of Krym, one of Crimea’s five main ports. The wharves are empty and the loading cranes are idle, Orlov said in an interview in Kerch, which is separated from Russia’s southern Krasnodar region by the Kerch Strait. ‘Political Blockade’ “An economic and political blockade is in place,” said Valery Belyakov, the deputy head of the Temryuk port on the Russian side of the watery divide. “Crimea’s main ports are in a state of legal limbo.” The local government plans to close two ports, in Fedosia and Yevpatoria, as part of a massive overhaul of the peninsula’s infrastructure, Crimea’s Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Temirgaliev said on his Facebook page. Authorities plan to construct a new terminal at Crimea’s only international airport, in Simferopol, and build ring roads around Simferopol and Sevastopol, home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. They also plan to connect Sevastopol and Kerch, on opposite sides of the peninsula, by rail. The most ambitious project is the 5-kilometer bridge that Russia plans to erect across the Kerch Strait, a project that may cost as much as $5.8 billion, according to the Regional Development Ministry in Moscow. Build, Putin! The government plans to start accepting bids for the bridge, which will have a four-lane highway and two railway tracks, later this year, according to Sergei Kelbakh, chairman of Russian Highways, the state-run company overseeing the project. Companies from China, Turkey and South Korea have already expressed interest, Kelbakh said in an interview, declining to be more specific. Currently there are just two ways to reach Crimea directly from Russia, either on a two-hour flight from Moscow or a 30-minute ferry ride across the strait. “Build the bridge, Putin!” a passenger on the Nikolai Aksenenko ferry wrote in the ship’s comment log, identifying himself as Ustinov from Moscow and Sochi. “The ferry’s slow!” Aksyonov, the acting premier, acknowledged that any hope Putin has of replicating the commercial success of Singapore hinges on his ability to root out corruption. The practice is deeply entrenched in both Russia and Ukraine, which are ranked by Transparency International as the most corrupt major economy and the most corrupt country in Europe, respectively. ‘Like Family’ “I summoned the ministers and warned them against taking bribes,” Aksyonov said. “Those caught taking or giving bribes will be sent to work in Magadan,” Aksyonov said, referring to the region of northeast Russia that became a forced-labor hub during the Stalin era. Aksyonov said Crimeans are prepared for the “temporary economic difficulties ” that come with reuniting with Russia after six decades apart. That position was seconded by Yury Pivnenko, a retired fireman who supplements his pension by driving a taxi in Alushta, about 50 kilometers south of Simferopol. “Putin brought us back home without firing a shot,” Pivnenko said. “He’s like family now.” To contact the reporter on this story: Evgenia Pismennaya in Moscow at epismennaya@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Hellmuth Tromm at htromm@bloomberg.net Brad Cook
Thai Military Consolidates Coup
Deposed prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra appeared before Thailand's governing junta council on Friday, one day after the military announced it had taken power in a coup. She is among the 155 political figures summoned by the National Peace and Order Maintaining Council who have been prohibited from leaving the country without permission (Bangkok Post). Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha addressed the civil service, calling on their help in implementing reforms before "return[ing] power to the people." Meanwhile, a nationwide curfew was in force as protestors were dispersed, though some dissent was seen in Bangkok, and television stations have had their programming replaced by the military's (Reuters). The United States declared the takeover a coup, which could prompt curtailed aid and military relations (WSJ). Analysis "In the nation's capital, troops and police officers appear to be exercising restraint. Let us hope this continues, for there is a long history of rights violations under martial law in Thailand. In some 30 of Thailand's 76 provinces, martial law was already in place before Tuesday, in some cases for years. Extrajudicial executions, deaths in custody, enforced disappearances and torture have been documented under military jurisdiction. There has been almost no accountability for these violations," writes Sam Zarifi in the New York Times. "Whatever appointed government is put into place by the military likely will launch reforms that, in theory, could help cleanse Thailand's political system of graft and vote buying but that, in reality, will be designed to try to ensure the Shinawatras and their political base are disempowered once and for all. This will not be an easy task; in fact, it is probably impossible. The supporters of Puea Thai include both the majority of Thais and a small, hardened minority of activists who will be willing to fight the Thai military in Bangkok or in upcountry towns," writes CFR's Joshua Kurlantzick. "If the coup results in the military's unilateral appointment of a new prime minister who is unacceptable to the Thaksin side a further escalation is bound to occur. Yet such bleak predictions belie the potential for progressive change that lies at the heart of all crises. Rather than seeing Thailand's troubles as a decline one might equally interpret them as a negotiation of a new social contract ahead of a sea change in the structure of the Thai state," writes Serhat Ünaldi in the Diplomat.
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