Peaceful Burma (ျငိမ္းခ်မ္းျမန္မာ)平和なビルマ

Peaceful Burma (ျငိမ္းခ်မ္းျမန္မာ)平和なビルマ

TO PEOPLE OF JAPAN



JAPAN YOU ARE NOT ALONE



GANBARE JAPAN



WE ARE WITH YOU



ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ေျပာတဲ့ညီညြတ္ေရး


“ညီၫြတ္ေရးဆုိတာ ဘာလဲ နားလည္ဖုိ႔လုိတယ္။ ဒီေတာ့ကာ ဒီအပုိဒ္ ဒီ၀ါက်မွာ ညီၫြတ္ေရးဆုိတဲ့အေၾကာင္းကုိ သ႐ုပ္ေဖာ္ျပ ထားတယ္။ တူညီေသာအက်ဳိး၊ တူညီေသာအလုပ္၊ တူညီေသာ ရည္ရြယ္ခ်က္ရွိရမယ္။ က်ေနာ္တုိ႔ ညီၫြတ္ေရးဆုိတာ ဘာအတြက္ ညီၫြတ္ရမွာလဲ။ ဘယ္လုိရည္ရြယ္ခ်က္နဲ႔ ညီၫြတ္ရမွာလဲ။ ရည္ရြယ္ခ်က္ဆုိတာ ရွိရမယ္။

“မတရားမႈတခုမွာ သင္ဟာ ၾကားေနတယ္ဆုိရင္… သင္ဟာ ဖိႏွိပ္သူဘက္က လုိက္ဖုိ႔ ေရြးခ်ယ္လုိက္တာနဲ႔ အတူတူဘဲ”

“If you are neutral in a situation of injustice, you have chosen to side with the oppressor.”
ေတာင္အာဖရိကက ႏိုဘယ္လ္ဆုရွင္ ဘုန္းေတာ္ၾကီး ဒက္စ္မြန္တူးတူး

THANK YOU MR. SECRETARY GENERAL

Ban’s visit may not have achieved any visible outcome, but the people of Burma will remember what he promised: "I have come to show the unequivocal shared commitment of the United Nations to the people of Myanmar. I am here today to say: Myanmar – you are not alone."

QUOTES BY UN SECRETARY GENERAL

Without participation of Aung San Suu Kyi, without her being able to campaign freely, and without her NLD party [being able] to establish party offices all throughout the provinces, this [2010] election may not be regarded as credible and legitimate. ­
United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon

Where there's political will, there is a way

政治的な意思がある一方、方法がある
စစ္မွန္တဲ့ခိုင္မာတဲ့နိုင္ငံေရးခံယူခ်က္ရိွရင္ႀကိဳးစားမႈရိွရင္ နိုင္ငံေရးအေျဖ
ထြက္ရပ္လမ္းဟာေသခ်ာေပါက္ရိွတယ္
Burmese Translation-Phone Hlaing-fwubc

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Russia-China Natural Gas Pipeline to Create New Global Price Benchmark

Russia’s landmark deal to supply China with natural gas via pipeline over 30 years will have profound impacts globally and create a new price benchmark that may pressure other producers, as consumers choose from a variety of supply sources, according to analysts. OAO Gazprom on Wednesday clinched a contract with China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) to sell an estimated $400 billion worth of gas over 30 years beginning in 2018 (see Daily GPI, May 21). By the end of this decade, Russia could be supplying almost 10% of China’s gas supplies. The deal to supply 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) a year via pipeline is priced at around US$10.00/Mcf, versus a current price of $14.00-15.00 for Asia Pacific imports, close to what most European utilities have agreed to pay over the past two years under discounted long-term contracts. “We, Russia and Gazprom, have discovered the Asian gas market for ourselves,” said Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller on Thursday at a forum. The transaction “will influence the whole gas market,” pressuring LNG projects in North America, Australia and Africa. Several analysts agreed that the partnership is a landmark for the global gas market. The compact “sets a new benchmark for what China is willing to pay for natural gas over longer-term contracts,” said Fitch Ratings. Asia liquefied natural gas (LNG) spot prices today are about $13.70/MMBtu, versus U.S. prices of about $4.50 (Henry Hub). “The deal changes the level playing field,” Societe Generale analyst Thierry Bros wrote. “China has now secured some new gas at a competitive price,” which means LNG shipped after the pipeline is completed “would need to be competitive.” China “now has a powerful stick with which to beat down LNG prices…They can tell their LNG suppliers ‘either you bring your price below Russian piped costs, or we will install a second line from Russia and cut you out.’” Russia “has thrown down the gauntlet to LNG producers courting Chinese buyers,” said London-based Timera Energy Director David Stokes. “Russian pipeline exports, which look to be competitively priced versus LNG, are set to have a material impact in eroding Chinese LNG demand. There is likely to be an important knock-on impact on the global LNG supply and demand balance, given the central role China plays in growth projections.” Expanding Gazprom’s Reach For Gazprom, the deal also gives it a brand-new market that’s roughly the size of Europe, said Wood Mackenzie Ltd.’s Stephen O’Rourke. Russia now supplies about one-third of Europe’s gas supplies, but more important, about 80% of Gazprom’s revenues are from Europe. “With European gas demand growth uncertain and the Ukraine crisis leading to calls for Europe to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, Gazprom now needs a ‘new Europe’ — enter China,” said O’Rourke. Gazprom could increase export volumes to China without affecting its ability to deliver to existing European customers, by developing untapped reserves in eastern Russia, said Fitch Managing Director Alex Griffiths, who heads natural resources and commodities. “Some have portrayed the deal as Russia turning away from Europe, in light of the ongoing situation in Ukraine. While it certainly begins to give Gazprom options in where to export, the company’s challenge historically has been to find ways to monetize its 23 trillion cubic meters of reserves at acceptable prices — and the best scenario for the company is an increase in production. “The deal is therefore positive for Gazprom’s medium- to long-term prospects, especially if it opens the door for a further deal to sell gas from its developed western fields to China in due course…” The price Russia fetched may be comparable to that of Gazprom contracts with Western Europe customers, but it’s “far above the prices at which gas can be sold in Russia,” said Griffiths. “A key difference is that gas to be sent to China will come from largely undeveloped fields, implying a significant upfront investment, which President Putin announced as US$55 billion. The 38 bcm announced is equal to about a quarter of Gazprom’s annual deliveries to Europe.” Russia also has announced it may abolish the mineral extraction tax for gas fields that deliver gas to China, potentially adding even more to Gazprom’s bottom line, he said. Russia likely is looking well beyond China for customers. Rumors are circulating that a transaction similar to the one with China is being negotiated with India. Russia is building new facilities and expanding other LNG export plants on its Pacific coast, near Sakhalin Island, where ExxonMobil Corp. and others are partnering. ExxonMobil struck an alliance with Russia’s OAO Rosneft in 2011 (see Daily GPI, Aug. 31, 2011). The pipeline to China would position Gazprom with leading Asia Pacific gas buyers, putting it at an advantage geographically over exports from North America and elsewhere. China Gas Demand Expected to Quadruple by 2035 However, the Asia Pacific region will need a lot of gas to keep up with demand. The International Energy Agency has predicted that China’s gas demand will quadruple by 2035. Russia exports will be a “drop in the bucket” as far as Asia Pacific’s thirst for gas, said Ziff Energy’s Ed Kallio, who directs gas consulting. “It doesn’t even come close. This doesn’t even scratch the surface.” And China hasn’t placed all of its bets on Russia, with large investments in gas schemes around the world, including British Columbia (BC), where a dozen-plus LNG export terminals are on the table. It’s also a big investor in Australia export projects. As well, China is planning to build at least 15 gas import terminals, which would make it the biggest gas importer after Japan. BC Premier Christy Clark said she didn’t think the Russia agreement would satisfy China’s thirst, nor its need to diversify supply. “I don’t think there’s a country in the world that today wants to depend on Russia as their sole supplier of natural gas,” said Clark. “Providing the assurance that we are not going to play politics with energy — I think that’s worth a lot to our potential partners out there, I think, especially China…We’ve certainly seen the way that Russia likes to do business these days, and we certainly know that the Chinese want a dependability of supply. We can supply that.” Calgary-based Talisman Energy Inc. CEO Hal Kvisle isn’t overly concerned about the deal pressuring Canada LNG. The former chief of TransCanada Corp. discussed the tie-up during a conference call during Talisman’s annual investor day. The quantity of gas directed to China isn’t enough “to swamp the market…It certainly doesn’t shut the door on LNG exports from Canada.” Woodside Petroleum Ltd. CEO Peter Coleman, whose company is Australia’s biggest gas exporter by volume, agreed that China would need a lot of gas from a lot of sources. Australia export facilities, including those backed by Chevron Corp., Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and ConocoPhillips, have faced huge cost overruns and labor shortages, but the backers haven’t signaled a slowdown. “China’s growth is coming off such a small base at the moment…It’s got a lot of headroom in it,” Coleman said. Wood Mackenzie’s Gavin Thompson, who heads Asia gas research, said the “comparisons with the development of Gazprom’s export business into Europe are clear, with almost identical population sizes between Northeast China and Western Europe. Gazprom’s exports to Western Europe first reached 38 bcm by the mid-1980s and have since increased to over 150 bcm into the whole of Europe. “We anticipate overall gas demand from China over the next two decades will grow more rapidly than that witnessed in Europe from the mid-1980s.” He said eight provinces in Northeast China would receive the East Siberian gas; the area has a population of around 360 million, roughly equal to that in Western Europe. The region also experiences “extremely cold winters and suffers from a shortage of indigenous supply options.” By 2025, Wood Mackenzie estimates that total gas demand from the eight provinces alone will reach 125 bcm; the Power of Siberia gas pipeline system would meet “over a quarter of regional gas demand by this time.” Without that eastern Russian supply, the region was facing increased reliance on imported LNG, Thompson said. Qatar, the world’s largest LNG producer, already is negotiating with CNPC and state-owned PetroChina Co. to supply 7 million metric tons/year (mmty); China now has long-term contracts for around 5 mmty. Major gas fields offshore Mozambique and Tanzania also hold promise. Too Much Gas? With gas reserves increasingly growing worldwide as unconventional drilling techniques improve, will there be enough buyers? “There will be more gas than needed, so those who get to the market first and cheapest will win,” said Sasol Petroleum International’s Ebbie Haan, managing director. There’s also the political strength that China and Russia gain through the gas alliance. “From the perspective of international relations,” said Thompson, “this deal also signals a deepening of energy ties between Russia and China. They now cooperate across a range of different commodities and have established a broad base for further increases in trade in oil, gas, LNG, coal and electricity.” The crisis in Ukraine, which has strained Russia relations with Europe and the United States gave “new urgency to the Russian desire to branch out to new markets,” said Credit Suisse analysts. “The implied price comes out at just under $10.00/MMBtu, but more importantly, provides China with something of a lever to cap ‘expensive’ LNG.”

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OPINION: Asians cannot count on "magic bullets" from U.S. for their problems

By Hiroki Sugita TOKYO, May 1, Kyodo Every time the U.S. president visits Asia, there are agreements, such as the "Global Alliance" or the "Strategic Partnership," which are well received in Asian countries but very modest in terms of concrete actions and effectiveness. In his late April visit to Asia, President Barack Obama was gracious enough to tell the people in the countries he visited exactly what they wanted to hear. Of course, Asians are happy right now, but we cannot ignore deeper doubts about whether he will follow through on what he said. In Tokyo, the first stop of President Obama's Asian trip, he said that the Senkaku Islands fall under the Japan-U.S. security treaty, in a show of U.S. commitment to defending the Japanese-administered islands against any attempt by China to seize them. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan praised Obama's statement, which no previous U.S. president has voiced, as "epoch-making." Japanese security experts say that the statement is the best way to deter China from starting any military operations against the islands in the East China Sea. Then, in Seoul, Obama rebuked Japan and pleased South Korea. At a press conference with President Park Geun Hye he described "comfort women" as a "terrible and egregious" violation of human rights and for the first time urged Mr. Abe to address the issue with the South Korean government. Many of the comfort women who were forced to work at Japanese military brothels during World War II were from the Korean Peninsula. President Park followed Obama by saying delightedly, "I really look forward to efforts made by the Japanese side." In Manila, Obama announced a defense pact that would give American forces greater access to Philippine military bases and facilities, including airfields and seaports. The main purpose of the pact is to fend off China's military expansion in the South China Sea. Asians except Chinese welcome all of Obama's words and policies. Many Japanese even support the "comfort women" statement. Although Obama's comfort women comment clearly puts Abe in an awkward position, it may act as a catalyst to end the bickering between Japan and South Korea over this issue. According to U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice, the remark was in line with the purpose of Obama's trip, namely to cement ties with Japan and South Korea and to encourage improved dialogue between these nations. However, the question is: to what extent can Obama oversee the implementation of these words and agreements? Asians were joyful when Obama announced the U.S. pivot to Asia three years ago after its long and enduring Middle East military ventures. But, we soon found in dismay the policy (later called "rebalancing") more rhetorical than real, as it lacked follow-up measures. Since the pivot announcement, Obama has cancelled two trips to Asia to deal with domestic political affairs, and last year he gave silent approval to China's Air Defense Identification Zone, over protests from Japan. One of the pillars of the pivot is the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, which was intended to create an Asia-Pacific free trade zone. During this trip to Asia, Obama made it clear that the United States would not make meaningful concessions to Japan and other TPP countries on trade negotiations for fear of angering some U.S. industries. Again, it is clear that Obama places domestic politics above Asia rebalancing. Even the Senkaku statement is not so assuring. At the Tokyo press conference, Obama avoided answering a question about the use of U.S. military force if China were to make a military incursion into the Senkakus. He explained that what he had said about the U.S. commitment to the islands was nothing new; it just repeated the U.S.'s historical interpretation of the U.S.-Japan security treaty. This response gave the impression that he would be very hesitant to use any kind of force. Given Obama's weak reaction to his declared redline regarding the use of chemical weapons in Syria and his ineffective response to the crisis in Ukraine, some Japanese naturally wonder whether the Senkaku statement is another Obama redline that would be easily ignored. Considering China's substantial economic and military strength, it is highly unlikely that the United States would get involved in a confrontation with China over a group of small and inhabited islands. Because of strict budget cuts, the U.S. military cannot meaningfully strengthen its presence. Yoko Iwama, a professor at the National Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, noted, "The Ukraine crisis shows the U.S. still has to put a great deal of efforts into Europe to counter Russia. It is too much to ask the U.S. to show strong presence both in Asia and Europe." Although security ties with the United States are the foundation for stability in the region, Asian countries would be wise not to expect much from the United States in the events of conflicts. It is equally important that Asian countries strengthen their own individual defense capabilities and build better relations with China. Obama has a unique capability to please host countries, as we saw in his April trip to Asia. In November, he will go to Beijing to attend the annual Asia-Pacific leaders' meeting. He most likely will reiterate strategic relationships with China for global and regional agendas, which the Japanese and Filipinos will not be happy to hear. In Tokyo he called on Japan to have talks to de-escalate the tension over the Senkakus saying, "I've said directly to the prime minister that it would be a profound mistake to continue to see escalation around this issue rather than dialogue and confidence building measures between Japan and China." If the issue is not resolved by November, then Obama in China may blame Abe for not doing enough. Asians should not be happy or disappointed each time the U.S. president makes a statement on the region. We can't expect magic bullets from the United States for Asian problems because they do not have quick solutions. Therefore, we Asians must find our own solutions to the Senkakus, comfort women, China, and any other issues we face. (Hiroki Sugita is managing feature writer of Kyodo News.) ==Kyodo

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