Peaceful Burma (ျငိမ္းခ်မ္းျမန္မာ)平和なビルマ

Peaceful Burma (ျငိမ္းခ်မ္းျမန္မာ)平和なビルマ

TO PEOPLE OF JAPAN



JAPAN YOU ARE NOT ALONE



GANBARE JAPAN



WE ARE WITH YOU



ဗိုလ္ခ်ဳပ္ေျပာတဲ့ညီညြတ္ေရး


“ညီၫြတ္ေရးဆုိတာ ဘာလဲ နားလည္ဖုိ႔လုိတယ္။ ဒီေတာ့ကာ ဒီအပုိဒ္ ဒီ၀ါက်မွာ ညီၫြတ္ေရးဆုိတဲ့အေၾကာင္းကုိ သ႐ုပ္ေဖာ္ျပ ထားတယ္။ တူညီေသာအက်ဳိး၊ တူညီေသာအလုပ္၊ တူညီေသာ ရည္ရြယ္ခ်က္ရွိရမယ္။ က်ေနာ္တုိ႔ ညီၫြတ္ေရးဆုိတာ ဘာအတြက္ ညီၫြတ္ရမွာလဲ။ ဘယ္လုိရည္ရြယ္ခ်က္နဲ႔ ညီၫြတ္ရမွာလဲ။ ရည္ရြယ္ခ်က္ဆုိတာ ရွိရမယ္။

“မတရားမႈတခုမွာ သင္ဟာ ၾကားေနတယ္ဆုိရင္… သင္ဟာ ဖိႏွိပ္သူဘက္က လုိက္ဖုိ႔ ေရြးခ်ယ္လုိက္တာနဲ႔ အတူတူဘဲ”

“If you are neutral in a situation of injustice, you have chosen to side with the oppressor.”
ေတာင္အာဖရိကက ႏိုဘယ္လ္ဆုရွင္ ဘုန္းေတာ္ၾကီး ဒက္စ္မြန္တူးတူး

THANK YOU MR. SECRETARY GENERAL

Ban’s visit may not have achieved any visible outcome, but the people of Burma will remember what he promised: "I have come to show the unequivocal shared commitment of the United Nations to the people of Myanmar. I am here today to say: Myanmar – you are not alone."

QUOTES BY UN SECRETARY GENERAL

Without participation of Aung San Suu Kyi, without her being able to campaign freely, and without her NLD party [being able] to establish party offices all throughout the provinces, this [2010] election may not be regarded as credible and legitimate. ­
United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon

Where there's political will, there is a way

政治的な意思がある一方、方法がある
စစ္မွန္တဲ့ခိုင္မာတဲ့နိုင္ငံေရးခံယူခ်က္ရိွရင္ႀကိဳးစားမႈရိွရင္ နိုင္ငံေရးအေျဖ
ထြက္ရပ္လမ္းဟာေသခ်ာေပါက္ရိွတယ္
Burmese Translation-Phone Hlaing-fwubc

Thursday, October 2, 2008

More Candy From China, Tainted, Is in U.S.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/world/asia/02milk.html?ref=world

By JIM YARDLEY
Published: October 1, 2008
SHANGHAI — More contaminated Chinese candy was discovered in the United States on Wednesday, this time in Connecticut, where consumer protection officials issued a public warning against eating the sticky sweet.

Times Topics: Consumer Product SafetyIn China, meanwhile, a couple filed a lawsuit against the company at the center of the tainted dairy scandal despite efforts by authorities to keep the issue out of the courts.

The discovery announced Wednesday involved the White Rabbit Creamy Candy brand, which is sold in 50 countries but has already been recalled from stores in Britain and many Asian countries. Jerry Farrell Jr., Connecticut’s consumer protection commissioner, announced that contaminated candy had been found at two stores in New Haven, one in West Hartford and one in East Haven. In each case, tests found traces of an industrial additive, melamine, in the candy.

“We’re concerned, obviously, there may have been bags sold of these before we got to them,” Mr. Farrell said on Wednesday, according to The Associated Press.

Last month, the Food and Drug Administration warned consumers about White Rabbit candy because of concerns over possible melamine contamination. In California, health officials have found traces of melamine after testing samples of White Rabbit candy. The American distributor has ordered a recall, but some of the candy may still be in stores.

Melamine is at the heart of China’s scandal over contaminated dairy products. It is used to make plastics and fertilizers, but it is sometimes illegally mixed into food products, including milk, because its high level of nitrogen can help fool tests that measure protein levels.

In September, Chinese authorities acknowledged that more than 53,000 Chinese infants had been sickened after consuming powdered baby formula that had been contaminated with melamine. Of that total, 13,000 were hospitalized and four died.

Initially, the contamination seemed isolated to powdered baby formula as the state media focused on one company, the Sanlu Group. But officials then announced that tests had found traces of melamine in formula produced by 21 other Chinese dairy companies.

This week, the list of offenders grew as government tests found traces of melamine in some batches of dairy products produced by 15 more companies, according to news agency reports. And traces of melamine have now been found in samples of yogurt and other products made with Chinese dairy.

The scandal has focused widespread public anger at the government. Beijing has sought to place the blame on dairy companies and local officials, especially in Shijiazhuang, the provincial capital where Sanlu has its headquarters. This week, People’s Daily, the authoritative newspaper of the Communist Party, published an unusual article in which a spokesman in Shijiazhuang apologized but also accused Sanlu officials of asking to cover up the problem in August, shortly before the beginning of the Beijing Olympics.

The People’s Daily article never addressed whether city officials participated in a cover-up but stated that they did not inform higher, provincial officials of the problem until a month later.

Meanwhile, Caijing, one of China’s leading independent magazines, reported this week that the parents of a 1-year-old boy were trying to sue Sanlu because the infant developed kidney stones after drinking the company’s powdered baby formula. The couple is asking for $22,000 in compensation. However, Caijing reported that the local court had yet to accept the lawsuit, a tactic often used in China’s legal system to prevent politically delicate subjects from being litigated.

For weeks, parents have besieged several prominent defense lawyers in Beijing with requests to file lawsuits tied to the contamination. One lawyer, Li Fangping, said his office had received more than 1,200 inquiries from parents. But Mr. Li said that the city’s legal association had advised lawyers not to file lawsuits in the matter.

Andrew Martin contributed reporting from New York.


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Parents file lawsuit in China against dairy firm

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/10/02/china.milk.ap/

BEIJING, China (AP) -- A lawyer says the parents of a baby allegedly sickened by tainted infant formula are suing the dairy at the heart of China's contaminated milk scandal, as 15 more companies were accused of producing spiked products.


Chinese food safety personnel check the fresh milk at a milk collection station in Chengdu, China, Sunday.

1 of 3 Lawyer Ji Cheng says although product liability lawsuits have become more common in recent years, he would not know until next week if the court in Henan province would take the case.

From the time of birth, the 1-year-old in central China's Henan province was fed infant formula made by Sanlu Group Co., according to a report by Caijing, a leading Chinese business magazine.

One of the child's parents, surnamed Sun, filed a lawsuit in a court in Zhenping county seeking $22,000.

Lawyers said they had not heard of any other civil lawsuits being filed in response to the melamine contamination of liquid milk, yogurt and other products made with milk. Four infants died and more than 50,000 have become ill after drinking the contaminated formula, which has been linked to kidney stones.



The lawsuit comes amid increasing public awareness of an individual's legal rights in China. Some parents who lost their children when shoddily built schools collapsed in a massive earthquake in May reportedly tried to sue local governments, but were offered cash in return for signing pledges not to pursue legal action.

Ji said one of the sick child's parents filed a lawsuit in a court in Zhenping county seeking $22,000 (150,000 yuan) in compensation from Sanlu for medical, travel and other expenses incurred after the child developed kidney stones. The amount could go up because the child is still being treated.

China's State Council, the Cabinet, has ordered hospitals to provide free treatment for sick infants, but the baby is at Beijing Children's Hospital, which will only offer free treatment to children diagnosed ill after September 12, when the scandal broke, Caijing magazine said.

One lawyer suggested his profession was under pressure to not accept lawsuits connected with the scandal.

"About one week ago the Beijing Judicial Bureau asked Beijing lawyers to attend a meeting and requested them not to accept problematic milk powder-related cases," said Zhou Shifeng, who was out of town and did not attend the meeting.

Other Beijing lawyers told The AP they had not come under any pressure to reject such cases.

On Wednesday, China said 15 more companies were accused of selling compromised products found to be contaminated with melamine after a new series of tests. The tainted samples were mostly milk powder products for adults.

Thirty-one samples of Chinese milk powder provided by 20 companies were found tainted with melamine after new testing, according to data seen Wednesday on China's food safety administration's Web site. Five of those companies had already been fingered in the scandal. Product safety officials could not be reached for comment.

The scandal has sparked global concern about Chinese food imports and recalls in several countries of Chinese-made products including milk powders, biscuits and candies such as the widely sold White Rabbit sweets, which have been pulled from shelves in the U.S., Europe and Asia.


Officials in the United States on Wednesday reported finding tainted White Rabbit candies for sale at Asian food markets in the state of New Jersey, after finding them earlier in California and Hawaii. Officials in Germany said they had discovered them for sale in the southern state of Baden Wuerttemburg.

The Shanghai-based maker of the candy, Guan Sheng Yuan Co., said last week it was halting production of the sticky, taffy-like confection, an iconic brand beloved by generations of Chinese.

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CNOOC/Sinopec lead race for Marathon Angola stake-source

http://www.reuters.com/article/americasMergersNews/idUSHKG33970620081002?sp=true


HONG KONG, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Chinese oil firms Sinopec Group and CNOOC Ltd (0883.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) are closing in on buying an Angolan oil field stake being sold by U.S. energy firm Marathon Oil (MRO.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), a source with knowledge of the bidding said on Thursday.

"(The two companies) are probably preferred bidders," the source said.

The sale appeared to have stalled about a month ago after Marathon demanded upwards of $2 billion for the 20 percent stake in Angolan Block 32, but it was now being more "realistic" and would accept less than $1.8 billion, the source said.

"It's probably slightly below that price after factoring in all the adjustments."

The source said there was a good chance of a deal, but some key issues remained to be resolved.

"It's way too premature to assume it's a done deal. The deal is progressing but it's definitely not at that stage."



The stake in the offshore block had attracted bids from India's ONGC (ONGC.BO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Brazil's Petrobras (PETR4.SA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) as well as the Chinese pair.

Marathon and Harrison Lovegrove, the consultancy running the sale of the stake, have both declined to comment on the process.

Marathon has a plan to raise cash by selling assets worth $2-$4 billion in the next year, but that target could be in jeopardy if it can't clinch a sale of the Angolan stake.

Marathon Oil holds 30 percent of Block 32 and was looking to cut its stake to 10 percent, the same as it holds in Angola's Block 31, which the government approved for development in July.

The remaining interests are held by operator Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), with 30 percent, Sonangol with 20 percent, Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) with 15 percent and Petrogal with 5 percent.

Angola now produces almost 2 million barrels of oil per day, rivalling Nigeria as Africa's top oil producer. It is the biggest oil supplier to China and the sixth-biggest to the United States. Oil accounts for about 90 percent of Angola's exports.

Its mostly offshore reserves total about 11.4 billion proven barrels, about the same as Algeria, according to estimates by Edinburgh-based energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.




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Myanmar’s Path to Democracy

http://ospr3y.wordpress.com/2008/10/02/democracy-and-human-rights/

When one thinks of the concept of democracy and human rights, Myanmar certainly does not spring into mind. Unlike the other members of Asean, Myanmar or Burma as some nations still regard it, has yet to adopt a system of government resembling any form of what one would describe as a democracy. Myanmar’s failure to make the transition to democracy can be largely attributed to the ever-diminishing prospects for reconciliation between the military-led junta, the State Peace and Developmental Council (SPDP) and the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD) (Kyaw, 2003)

The current political situation in Myanmar can be traced back to 1990, when the NLD decisively won a general election called by the military junta. However, Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the NLD and daughter of national hero Aung San did not see power handed over to her party. Instead, the junta’s reluctance to hand over power saw Aung San Suu Kyi placed under house arrest – an event that invariably led to international outcry. Over the years, the military junta has twice released the pro-democratic leader only to have her arrested again. For example, in 2003, the government arrested several NLD members, placed Aung San Suu Kyi under ‘protective custody’ and closed NLD offices throughout the country. These actions were, according to the Myanmar government, in response to the commotion caused by unruly NLD members and their supporters which resulted in a number of casualties. (Kyaw, 2003) The international community, being largely pro-democracy was of course not exactly willing to accept the word of the junta. Most felt that the clash between the government and NLD was premeditated and served as an excuse for eliminating the NLD threat to their power.


The military junta of Myanmar has also been widely criticized by other countries for failing to provide its people with basic human rights. Apart from politically stifling its people, the Myanmese government hardly did any good to its international reputation by cracking down on protesting Buddhist monks in 2007. The protests, sparked off by the doubling of fuel prices, caused massive numbers of people to join these monks in demonstrations calling for economic, political and social reforms. The government’s response to this was one of violence and contempt. Almost a year later in 2008, the military junta further tarnished its name in the international spotlight by refusing foreign aid after being stricken by the deadly Cyclone Nargis. Furthermore, they refused to issue visas to United Nations relief teams whose jobs were to ensure the victims of the disaster were receiving the aid they desperately needed. Though it was estimated that the lives lost due to the tragedy numbered in the tens of thousands with millions more ending up homeless, the Myanmese government remained adamant about their decision.


The path to democracy for Myanmar looks tumultuous at best. Then again, it is difficult to think of any democratic nation that has risen through totally peaceful means. In the international scene however, Myanmar may be seen as lagging behind with already about 62% of all countries embracing democracy (Zakaria, 2003) The most recent attempts to reconcile Aung San Suu Kyi and her NLD with the military junta through the aid of United Nations envoy Ibrahim Gambari have been widely regarded as failures. International pressure for Myanmar to turn to democracy may be high but the notion of it being the most viable method to solve Myanmar’s problems cannot simply be taken for granted. To quote Winston Churchill, “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.” Presumably however, democracy brings with it the idea that the rights of the people will be protected – something which Myanmar and the rest of the world is striving for in the first place. Only time can tell if this will ever materialize and eventually eradicate the numerous issues that malign Myanmar.

This entry was posted on October 2, 2008 at 10:35 am and is filed under Democracy and Human Rights . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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Japan's Five-Year Notes Rise on Mounting Evidence of Recession

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=a4Wk8IodVwJY

By Theresa Barraclough

Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's five-year government bonds rose as mounting evidence the world's second-largest economy faces a recession prompted investors to favor low-risk assets.

Five-year yields fell as traders increased bets the Bank of Japan will reduce interest rates this year after the central bank's Tankan survey, published yesterday, showed manufacturers are the most pessimistic in five years. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slumped to a three-year low, boosting the attraction of fixed-income securities.

``There's concern of a deeper recession,'' which led to bond buying, said Susumu Kato, chief economist in Tokyo at Calyon Securities, one of the 24 primary dealers required to bid at government debt sales. ``The five-year bond is one of the safe havens for banks because of the large drop in the stock market.''

The yield on the 1.1 percent note due September 2013 fell 2.5 basis points to 1.04 percent as of 4:08 p.m. in Tokyo at Japan Bond Trading Co., the nation's largest interdealer debt broker. The price rose 0.118 yen to 100.282 yen. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Ten-year bond futures for December delivery increased 0.20 to close at 137.24 at the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Reports this week showed industrial production fell at the fastest pace in five years in August, household spending dropped for a sixth month and the jobless rate reached a two-year high.

``The BOJ policy stance will change from neutral to one that considers business conditions,'' said Eiji Dohke, chief strategist at UBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo.

The chance the BOJ will lower borrowing costs to 0.25 percent from 0.5 percent by year-end jumped to 21 percent from 3 percent a week ago, according to calculations by JPMorgan Chase & Co. using overnight interest-rate swaps.

Stock Losses

The Nikkei 225 lost 1.9 percent to close at 11,154.76, the lowest close since May 2005, and the broader Topix index declined 2.2 percent.

Benchmark bonds handed investors a return of 1 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, the least among Group of Seven nations, according to indexes compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. The Nikkei decreased 16 percent in the same period.

Ten-year bonds declined after a sale of 1.9 trillion yen ($17.9 billion) in the securities drew less demand than the previous auction in September after the U.S. Senate approved a $700 billion bill that would allow the government to buy troubled assets from banks. Ten-year yields added 1 basis point to 1.51 percent.

`Negative Factor'

The auction ``wasn't good because market participants wanted to be cautious before the vote,'' said Takashi Nishimura, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co., a unit of Japan's largest bank by assets, in Tokyo. ``In theory, the rescue plan is a negative factor for the bond market.''

The sale attracted bids worth 2.58 times the amount offered, compared to a so-called bid-to-cover ratio of 2.66 times at the Sept. 2 sale.

The lowest price at the auction of 10-year debt was 0.13 yen below the average price, compared to a so-called tail of 0.04 yen in September. The tail is the difference between the lowest price and the average price. The longer the tail, the fewer bids are clustered around the average price.

The U.S. Senate approved the financial-rescue plan by 74 votes to 25. The package now goes to the House of Representatives, which rejected an earlier version of the measure. ``It's very important for us to pass this piece of legislation so as to stabilize the situation,'' President George W. Bush said before the Senate vote.

``The bill itself is needed to stabilize the market,'' said Tomohiko Katsu, deputy general manager of the capital market division at Shinsei Bank Ltd. based in Tokyo. ``It's a last resort measure.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Theresa Barraclough in Tokyo at tbarraclough@bloomberg.net.


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Myanmar to boost tourism with seaside airport at cyclone scene


Myanmar authorities are building a seaside airport in the southwest region laid waste by a cyclone five months ago, a local weekly paper reported Wednesday.
They hope to boost tourism at Ngwesaung beach, in the country's Irrawaddy delta near the Bay of Bengal, 7Day said.

"The hotel authorities in Ngwesaung beach said an airport with an 8,000-feet (2,400-metre) long runway is under construction now at the beach," the paper said.

Ngwesaung beach, opened in 2000, is 240 kilometres (150 miles) from the main city Yangon, in the middle of the area left devastated by Cyclone Nargis, which struck May 2-3 and left 138,000 people dead or missing.

The beach attracts foreign tourists looking for budget deals according to one tour operator.

"Spanish and Italian tourists are more interested in Ngwesaung beach as the hotel rates there are lower than at Ngapali beach," a tour company operation manager told AFP, referring to a beach in Rakhine state already accessible by air and speaking on condition of anonymity.

"But recently the road has been very bad since the Nargis cyclone and because of the rainy season," she said.

Ngwesaung beach has 20 hotels providing 800 guest rooms according to official statistics.

Construction of the airport began in the third week of September, the report said.


Copyright AFP 2008, AFP stories and photos shall not be published, broadcast, rewritten for broadcast or publication or redistributed directly or indirectly in any medium

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WHO, Honiara, Provides Information on Melamine

http://solomontimes.com/news.aspx?nwID=2724

The World Health Organisation (WHO) representative in Honiara, Dr. Jeffrey Hii has said that the use of the chemical melamine in baby formula in Mainland China is an issue of serious concern.
Dr Hii said that what has happened has raised concerns that there is a strong possibility that the chemical Melamine is also used in other food products.

"Nearly 40-thousand cases of kidney stones in infants, three deaths and one unconfirmed case is related to the consumption of the Melamine-contaminated powdered infant formula. Reports have been recieved from across China since the 21st of September 2008. Almost 12,900 children are currently hospitalized," says Dr. Hii.

A statement from the WHO said that while the exact timing of the contamination itself remains unknown, a manufacturer (Sanlu) received a complaint of illness in March 2008.


The Chinese media however reported at the beginning of September that the "Good Cows Company" infant formula produced by Sanlu was contaminated with melamine.

According to the WHO, Sanlu's powdered infant formula is widely consumed by infants across China because the product is relatively affordable compared to others.

"Following inspections, conducted by China's national inspection agency, at least 22 dairy manufacturers across the country were found to have melamine," says Dr. Hii.

He says that two companies; Guangdong Yashili and the Qingdao Suokang, export their 'Sanlu' products to Bangladesh, Burundi in Africa, Burma, Gabon in Africa, and Yemen.

According to him, contamination in those countires remain unconfirmed, however a recall has been ordered from China.

"Other countries also reported finding melamine in dairy products manufactured in China," says Dr. Hii.

So far the chemical has also been found in liquid milk, frozen yogurt, desert and in coffee drink.

"All these products were most probably manufactured using ingredients made from melamine contaminated milk," says Dr. Hii.

Dr. Hii, on behalf of WHO also revealed that in 2007, Melamine was found in pet food manufactured in China and exported to the United States of America which caused the death of a large number of dogs and cats due to kidney failure.


National Express


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Should Asia brace for more mega storms?

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20081002a1.html

Thursday, Oct. 2, 2008

By MICHAEL RICHARDSON
Special to The Japan Times
SINGAPORE — We have become acutely aware of the financial storm threatening to sweep the world. But what about nature's most powerful storms? Will global warming cause more frequent and intense tropical cyclones, increasing the already heavy annual toll of death, damage and injury in densely populated coastal Asia?

A panel of scientists advising member states of the United Nations on climate change told policymakers late last year that it was likely future tropical cyclones "will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea-surface temperatures."



The latest scientific research on cyclones, published last month, suggested that global warming has already made storms more destructive. However, the study by three U.S. weather researchers made no reference human causes for rising sea temperatures, such as the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere — mainly from burning coal, oil and natural gas, and clearing tropical forests. Much of this activity is happening in Asia.

The weather researchers examined photographs and other data from a single set of satellites from 1981 to 2006, a period in which sea surface temperatures rose to 28.44 C from 28.22 C. They concluded that the highest wind speeds of the most violent storms averaged 251 kph in 2006, up from 225 kph in 1981. The increases in cyclone intensity were most marked in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, but less evident in the North Pacific, where most tropical cyclones occur. The study also found that more common and less powerful cyclones — about two-thirds of all the storms — had not become stronger in the 26 years to 2006.

An average of 90 cyclones form around the world each year. Around 50 of the most powerful reach wind strengths of 118 kph (74 mph) and above. In the North Pacific, they are known as typhoons; in the Atlantic, as hurricanes. Typhoons regularly strike Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, the Philippines and Japan in the storm season from late June until December, gathering strength in the Pacific Ocean or the South China Sea before weakening over land.

Although the Bay of Bengal has been the scene of some of the world's deadliest cyclones, most of them have struck Bangladesh and India, not Myanmar. However, Cyclone Nargis, which hit Myanmar last May, appears to be the first high-strength storm recorded in the populous Irrawaddy River Delta in Burma, and this has prompted speculation that these cyclones may be extending their reach and striking in new places.

Shortly before the catastrophic Hurricane Katrina struck the Bahamas, Florida and Louisiana in 2005, causing nearly $100 billion in damage, Kerry Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, attracted worldwide attention when he published a study showing hurricanes had become significantly more violent due in part to global warming. His latest research, which came out last April, confirmed that there had been a big rise in hurricane power in the last 25 years but cast doubt on whether this trend would continue in the future as the world got warmer.

Some scientists have linked stronger storms to rising sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and elsewhere. They propound the so-called heat engine theory: because tropical cyclones draw energy from warm water and warm moist air, the warmer the water and the atmospheric temperature, the more intense the storm.

However, the three U.S. weather researchers previously mentioned found that cyclones are also affected by factors not related to ocean temperatures and that these can prevent some storms from gathering devastating strength. The shaping factors include where cyclones originate, how close they are to land, solar activity, El Nino and La Nina ocean-atmosphere cycles, as well as the speed, direction and height of wind shear.

The trouble is that even when these factors are considered disadvantageous statistically to storm development, some storms are able to emerge as banshees of destruction.

Michael Richardson is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

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Averting Asian water wars

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20081002bc.html

BRAHMA CHELLANEY
As the most pressing resource, water holds the strategic key to peace, public health and prosperity. The battles of yesterday were fought over land. Those of today are over energy. But the battles of tomorrow will be over water. And nowhere else does that prospect look more real than in Asia.

According to a 2006 U.N. report, Asia has less fresh water than any other continent other than Antarctica. In that light, water is emerging as a key challenge for long-term Asian peace and stability.

Although water covers two-thirds of Earth, much of it is too salty for use. Barely 2.5 percent of the world's water is potentially potable, but two-thirds of that is locked up in the polar icecaps and glaciers. So, less than 1 percent of the total global water is available for consumption by humans and other species.

These freshwater reserves are concentrated in mountain snows, lakes, aquifers and rivers. Already, 1.5 billion people lack ready access to potable water, and 2.5 billion people have no water sanitation services.

In Asia, deforestation, poor management of river basins, environmentally unsustainable irrigation, overuse of groundwater and contamination of water sources have all helped aggravate water woes. The over-exploitation of subterranean water has resulted in a falling water table in several parts of Asia.

Depleting groundwater irreplaceably can dry up wetlands and lakes that depend on such sources. Saline seawater can flow in to replace the fresh water that has been pumped out, as is happening in some Asian coastal areas. In the Gangetic Delta, wells have tapped into naturally occurring arsenic deposits, leading to tens of millions of people in eastern India and Bangladesh being exposed to high levels of arsenic in drinking water and staple agricultural products like rice.

In fact, access to water illustrates the divide today between the rich and the poor in Asia. While the poor struggle to get basic access to water for their daily consumption and household chores, the rich now largely rely on bottled drinking water.



Thursday, Oct. 2, 2008

By The quality and quantity of available fresh water indeed is becoming a critical component of Asian security-related challenges. Increasingly, dams built on transnational rivers are spurring interstate friction. If wars in the future are to be averted over these and other hydro-engineering projects, international norms and rules will have to be evolved.

With the world's fastest-rising military expenditures, most-dangerous hot spots and fiercest resource competition, Asia appears as the biggest flash point for water wars — a concern underscored by attempts by some states to exploit their riparian position or dominance. Riparian dominance impervious to international legal principles can create a situation where water allocations to co-riparian states become a function of political fiat.

Upstream dams, barrages, canals and irrigation systems can help fashion water as a political weapon — a weapon that can be wielded overtly in a war, or subtly in peacetime to signal dissatisfaction with a co-riparian state. Even denial of hydrologic data in a critically important season can amount to the use of water as a political tool. Such leverage could in turn prompt a downstream state to build up its military capabilities to help counterbalance the riparian disadvantage.

Except for Japan, Malaysia and Burma, Asian states already face water shortages. The very future of some low-lying states like Bangladesh and the Maldives is at stake due to creeping saltwater incursion, frequent storm-related flooding and the climate change-driven rise of ocean levels. Bangladesh today has too much water, yet not enough to meet its needs. Born in blood in 1971, the world's seventh-most populous nation faces the specter of a watery grave.

China and India already are water-stressed economies. The spread of irrigated farming and water-intensive industries and a rising middle class are drawing attention to their serious struggle for more water. The two giants have entered an era of perennial water shortages, which before long are likely to parallel, in terms of per capita availability, the scarcity in the Middle East.

Their rapid economic growth could slow in the face of acute water scarcity if their demand for water continues to grow at the present frenetic pace. Water shortages indeed threaten to turn food-exporting China and India into major importers — a development that would seriously accentuate the global food crisis.

Even though India's usable arable land is larger than China's — 160.5 million hectares compared to 137.1 million hectares — the source of all the major Indian rivers except the Ganges is the Chinese-held Tibetan plateau. This is the world's largest plateau, whose vast glaciers, huge underground springs and high altitude have endowed it with the greatest river systems.

Almost all the major rivers of Asia originate there. Tibet's status thus is unique: No other area in the world is a water repository of such size, serving as a line for much of an entire continent.

Through its control over Tibet, China controls the ecological viability of several major river systems tied to southern and southeastern Asia. But today, China is toying with massive interbasin and inter-river water transfer projects starting from the Tibetan plateau.

Its ongoing "Great South-North Water Transfer Project" is an overly ambitious engineering attempt to take water through man-made canals to its semi-arid north. The diversion of waters from the Tibetan plateau in this project's third leg is an idea enthusiastically backed by President Hu Jintao, a hydrologist who owes his swift rise in the Communist Party hierarchy to the brutal martial-law crackdown he carried out in Tibet in 1989.

In the stark words of Premier Wen Jiabao, water scarcity "threatens the very survival of the Chinese nation." But in seeking to address that challenge, China's gargantuan projects threaten to damage the delicate Tibetan ecosystem. They also carry seeds of inter-riparian conflict. The hydropolitics in the Mekong River basin, for example, can only become worse as China, ignoring the concerns of downstream states, completes more upstream dams on the Mekong.

While making halfhearted attempts to staunch Indian fears about the prospective diversion of River Brahmaputra northward, Beijing has identified the bend where the Brahmaputra forms the world's longest and deepest canyon, just before entering India, as holding the largest untapped reserves for meeting China's water and energy needs.

A Sino-Indian conflict over the sharing of the Brahmaputra waters would begin no sooner than China began to build the world's largest hydropower plant on the river's Great Bend.

Asia will continue to have the largest number of people without basic or adequate access to water. Such water stress in the face of rising demand and poor water management will sharpen competition between urban and rural areas, between neighboring provinces and between nations. As global warming accelerates, local, national and interstate disputes over water will become increasingly common in Asia, making cooperative institutional mechanisms over water resources essential within and between states.

Clearly, the way to forestall or manage water disputes in Asia is to build cooperative river-basin arrangements involving all riparian neighbors. Such institutional arrangements ought to center on transparency, information sharing, pollution control and a pledge not to redirect the natural flow of transboundary rivers or undertake projects that would diminish cross-border water flows. The successful interstate basin agreements (such as over the Indus, the Nile and the Senegal rivers) are founded on such principles.

In the absence of institutionalized cooperation over shared resources, peace would be the casualty in Asia if water became the new battleground. In the ominous words of Wang Shucheng, China's former minister of water resources: "To fight for every drop of water or die, that is the challenge facing China."

Brahma Chellaney is a professor of strategic studies at the privately funded Center for Policy Research in New Delhi.

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Myanmar detains political ally of Aung San Suu Kyi

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jTKyFgp_de4JJDlBy33hNVFLa1uAD93I5SCG0

Myanmar detains political ally of Aung San Suu Kyi
7 hours ago

YANGON, Myanmar (AP) — Myanmar's military authorities have detained a prominent former journalist and political ally of detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the opposition party said Thursday.

Police took 64-year-old Ohn Kyaing from his home Wednesday evening, said Nyan Win, the spokesman for Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy.

"The reason why he was detained was not known," Nyan Win said.

Ohn Kyaing was released from prison in 2005 after serving 15 years of a 17-year prison sentence for "writing and distributing seditious pamphlets" and threatening state security.

Ohn Kyaing joined the NLD after a long career in journalism and won a parliamentary seat in 1990 — elections that were overwhelmingly won by Suu Kyi's party but which the military junta refused to recognize.

Until then, he had worked at several newspapers and written articles under the pen name "Aung Wint."

Ohn Kyaing is a close friend and former colleague of Win Tin, another former journalist turned opposition politician, who was the longest-serving political prisoner in Myanmar until his release Sept. 23. Win Tin served 19 years behind bars.

Asked to comment on the detention of Ohn Kyaing, Win Tin said, it "is not unusual and something we have to expect. He is a close colleague, a good friend and a highly qualified man."

The Home Ministry, which is in charge of police, could not be reached for comment Thursday. Authorities seldom comment on arrests of this nature.

Myanmar has been under military rule for 46 years and is one of the world's poorest and most authoritarian nations. Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has been detained for 13 of the last 19 years.

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Burma Dam Projects Said to Threaten Residents, Wildlife

http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1573868/burma_dam_projects_said_to_threaten_residents_wildlife/

CDT Text of report in English by Thailand-based Burmese publication Irrawaddy website on 30 September

The Burmese government's plan to build two major hydropower dams - the Wai Gyi and Hat Gyi - on the Salween River in eastern Burma threatens the human rights of local residents and the biodiversity of the area, says an environmental organization.

According to the report "Khoe Kay: Biodiversity in Peril" released by the Thailand-based Karen Environmental and Social Action Network (KESAN) on Monday, more than 40 rare seeds and animal species in the Salween River watershed are likely to vanish if the Burmese government completes construction of the hydropower dams.

Ko Shwe, a spokesperson for KASEN, said, "According to our research, we found about 394 different species. Among them, there are 8 endemic species including plants and animals. If the dam is completed, these species will be totally vanished."

The report urged the government to conduct a professional environmental assessment as well as an environmental impact study before construction work begins on the hydropower dams.

The Wai Gyi and Hat Gyi dams are both located in Karen National Union controlled areas.

Meanwhile, Saw Nay, the director of Karen River Watch, said the Hat Gyi dam on the lower Salween River threatened several thousands of residents as well as wildlife.

According to its research, about 5,000 reside in more than 20 villages in the upper Hat Gyi dam area will be forced to relocate if the dam is completed, he said. He said human rights abuses such as forced labour, forced relocation, the disappearance of culture heritage as well as environmental damage including disforestation and flooding are likely to occur.

The Hat Gyi dam, the first to be built, is designed to power a 600-megawatt turbine. The project is expected to be complete by 2010.

The Hat Gyi dam project has drawn strong protests from nongovernmental organizations concerned about the potential environmental impact and the dam's effect on the livelihood of villagers.

Originally published by Irrawaddy website, Chiang Mai, in English 30 Sep 08.

(c) 2008 BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.



Source: BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific


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Win Tin’s Logical Principles

http://www.irrawaddy.org/opinion_story.php?art_id=14362

COMMENTARY
Win Tin’s Logical Principles
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By KYAW ZWA MOE Wednesday, October 1, 2008

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The expression, Suu Hlut Twe, offers three simple ideas to break the country’s chronic political stand off between the military and political opposition groups.

Suu stands for pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and the unconditional release of all political prisoners.

Hlut stands for Hluttaw (people’s parliament) and the convening of parliament with the representatives of the 1990 elections.

Twe stands for dialogue between the military government and opposition groups.

Those were three basic ideas that prominent journalist-turned-politician Win Tin held to during his 19-year imprisonment. It was his commitment to the pro-democracy movement that helped him overcome harsh obstacles in prison, said the 79-year-old NLD opposition leader days after his release in late September.

Win Tin said he will continue to work toward those simple principles in the ongoing struggle for democracy. Win Tin, who was a secretary in Suu Kyi’s opposition National League for Democracy before his arrest in 1989, was reappointed to his old position as a member of the party’s Central Executive Committee on September 27 during the NLD’s 20th anniversary in Rangoon.

Win Tin’s principles harkens back to the NLD policies in place following the 1990 elections. In the passage of years, the military regime has consistently dismissed all NLD proposals and, instead, gone its own way—following its “road map” to democracy that simply excludes all opposition groups and main ethnic political parties.

Burma’s Foreign Minister Nyan Win told the UN General Assembly on Monday, “Peace and stability now prevails in almost all parts of the country.” The former military officer said the government’s road map offers the best chance for a return to civilian rule.

The junta’s planned election in 2010 is the next step on its road map. After the election, the junta claims it will hand over power to a civilian government. Last year the junta concluded its 14-year National Convention, which drafted a constitution, since approved that guarantees the military will control the pseudo-civilian government.

The regime’s foreign minister told the UN assembly, “All citizens, regardless of political affiliation, will have equal rights to form political parties and to conduct elections campaigns.” However, some former political prisoners and activists are likely to be banned from taking part in the election.

The NLD boycotted the junta’s National Convention in 1995 and consistently criticized the regime’s road map as illegitimate, calling it one-sided and lacking the participation of the 1990-elected members of parliament. Last week, in a statement the NLD called for the junta to review the constitution.

The head of Burma’s police, Brig-Gen Khin Yi, warned NLD’s leaders to withdraw their critical statement, saying it could provoke citizens to make critical comments against the government, which—by law—is illegal in Burma because it could provoke instability.

Similar demand by the UN special envoy, Ibrahim Gambari, was also ignored by the regime.

On Saturday, the UN’s Group of Friends of Myanmar—composed of the United States, Britain, China, Southeast Asian countries and the European Union—again called for the release of all political prisoners.

But it’s quite unlikely. The junta’s recent release of less than 10 political prisoners, including Win Tin, won it praise from some countries. The release was part of a general amnesty for about 9,000 prisoners convicted of criminal offenses.

The remaining 2,000 political prisoners are unlikely to enjoy an amnesty anytime soon. The junta considers the jailed pro-democracy advocates “destructive elements of the country” and, as a result, most of them have no chance of release until after the 2010 election.

Recently, The Irrawaddy learned from intelligence sources that an election law for the upcoming 2010 election is now on Than Shwe’s desk in Naypyidaw waiting to be signed. He’s still the only person who has the power to determine Burma’s course.

Win Tin’s Suu Hlut Twe policy is logical. Like everything in Burma, however, the ideas have to be acceptable to Than Shwe.

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Japan arson suspect a jobless, lonely divorcee: reports

Thursday October 2, 1:59 PM

TOKYO (AFP) - The man accused of starting a fire which killed 15 people at an all-night video shop in Japan was a gentle father whose life went downhill when he got divorced and lost his job, reports said Thursday.

The blaze before dawn on Wednesday engulfed the Cats parlour which offered adult films in small rooms for people looking for a cheap place to stay in the western metropolis of Osaka.

Kazuhiro Ogawa, 46, was arrested and admitted starting the fire by burning newspapers, according to police. He said he wanted to die although he was not injured.



Ogawa once worked at an electronics company and was popular in his neighbourhood, the Asahi Shimbun said, quoting neighbours.

He would play catch with his son outside and take care of other local children, who grew fond of him, the newspaper said.

But he divorced when his son was still young and moved in with his mother, who then died. He then lost his job and found an apartment by himself.

One neighbour said Ozawa starting dressing flamboyantly as he took on different jobs. He reportedly managed a store and learnt sign language to work with people with disabilities.

But he was hospitalised for a long time with an unspecified illness and moved twice more, reports said.

He had recently appeared tired and told neighbours he couldn't work because of illness and had no money, the Asahi said.

Ogawa told investigators he had debts of more than two million yen (19,000 dollars), public broadcaster NHK said.

There has been growing concern about a deteriorating social safety net in Japan as the economy moves away from the recession of the 1990s.

A government survey found last year that 5,400 people were living in all-night lounges offering movies and comic books as they could not afford rents in the world's second largest economy.

The crime was the deadliest in Japan in seven years. In June, a young man with worries about work went on a slashing spree in a busy part of Tokyo, killing seven people.


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Than Shwe Delays Signing Election Law


Snr-Gen Than Shwe. (Photo: AP)

http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=14363

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By MIN LWIN Thursday, October 2, 2008

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The head of the Burmese military regime, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, has still not approved the country’s election law, which authorizes an election in 2010 and the constitutional backing for the Burmese armed forces to retain at least 25 percent of parliamentary seats.

Sources within the Burmese military said that although the election law had been approved by the constitution process, it was still on Than Shwe’s desk waiting to be signed.

Win Min, a Burmese military analyst based in Thailand, said that Than Shwe will not authorize the document until closer to the election date.

Rumors are circulating in Naypyidaw and Rangoon that Than Shwe and his No 2, Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye, have argued recently about which officers would be given parliamentary seats and which would continue in military service.

Military sources said that Than Shwe is the key player in deciding which military officers run in the election.

Meanwhile, at the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York, Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win said that the fifth step of the junta’s “road map”—a general election—will be completed in 2010 and that all necessary measures are being taken for the election.



He also said in his speech that all citizens, regardless of political affiliation, will have equal rights to form political parties and the government will make every effort to ensure that the election will be free and fair.

According to the constitution approved in May, 25 percent of the seats in the Burmese parliament will be reserved for members of the military, nominated by the Commander-in-Chief of the Burmese Defence Services.

Aung Kyaw Zaw, a Burmese military analyst living on the China-Burma border, said that Than Shwe wanted to keep his grip on power and was preparing to form a political party to compete in the 2010 election.


According to military sources, regional military commanders competed for Than Shwe’s approval during the constitutional referendum in May. The commanders were told that unless their regions produced a high percentage of Yes votes, they could find themselves “retired” or transferred to inactive positions.

Official figures concluded that more than 90 percent of the electorate voted “Yes” despite the process being labeled a “sham” by most observers.

Since Than Shwe seized power in 1992, he has relegated his colleagues and opponents ruthlessly if he suspected they were not loyal to him. In 2004, he purged former Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt and his supporters for disobeying him. Khin Nyunt has been under house arrest ever since.


Copyright © 2008 Irrawaddy Publishing Group | www.irrawaddy.org



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