http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/06/11/politics/politics_30104843.php
By Supalak Ganjanakhundee
The Nation
Published on June 11, 2009
There are at least four reasons why Thailand is not able to push Burma's political development toward democracy and national reconciliation, as well as to free opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
First, the current government led by the Democrat Party has no record of civilian supremacy, not to mention democracy and reconciliation. The Thai government is not comfortable commenting on any military run government since it obtained help from military top brass to form its own coalition. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva knows very well how much he owes the commanders.
People in this country love to call on the military to intervene whenever they have problems with civilian government. The latest military coup d'etat happened only three years ago.
The Thai military junta dissolved at the end of 2007. Nobody in this country could say the military has no influence in politics, notably over this current government.
So-called national reconciliation is a political term this government might not be able to spell out. As long as it cannot reconcile the red- and yellow-shirted movements, it's better to have no comment about the even worse national division in Burma.
Disunity in that country is deeper than in Thailand, absolutely. It is not just a matter of political difference, but also a problem of race.
Second, Thai elites - notably those in power - have no clear vision about future opposition and dissident groups. They have no more faith in the opposition's fighting against the Burmese junta.
It seems the Thai elite jump to the conclusion the opposition, and even the rebellious ethnic minorities Thailand uses as a buffer, have a very slim chance of defeating the Tatmadaw [Burmese military].
Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya has talked to ethnic minorities along the Thai border several times over past months since he took the position, to convince them to turn themselves into the junta's fold.
The move is most helpful for the junta but weakens the dissidents.
Very few Thais connect strongly with Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy. Some female members of the ruling Democrat Party and SEA Write-award winning author Jiranan Pitpreecha met Suu Kyi more than a decade ago.
Thammasat University conferred an honorary doctorate degree on her when she turned 60, but such a link is very slim. No strong pressure group could force the Thai government to help her.
Third, the Thai economy relies too much on resources from Burma. The government, every government, would never dare challenge the junta. Making Burma angry might cause trouble in business.
Thailand could not join any economic sanctions to pressure the junta since they would pose a direct challenge to its own economy. The jewellery industry, for example, suffered from the US's Tom Lantos Block Burmese Jade Act of 2008, since it stifled imports from any country of gems and jewellery containing Burmese raw material.
Rubies and other Burmese gemstones account for about 20 per cent of raw materials for the Thai jewellery industry.
Exports of gems and jewellery to the US dropped sharply in the last quarter of 2008 when the Act was enforced in October. Exports to the US contracted 35.19 per cent between October and December last year, according to Ministry of Commerce data.
Besides gemstones, Thailand is buying via pipeline more than a billion cubic feet of gas a day from Burma's Yadana and Yedagun gas fields, accounting for some 20 per cent of total consumption in this country.
Fourth, Thailand has the burden of proximity as it shares more than 2,200 kilometres of border with Burma.
The borders shelter problems ranging from smuggling and trafficking to political conflict. The junta knows how to use border issues to mount pressure on Bangkok.
Burma's military offensive against the Karen National Union over past weeks caused at least 3,000 people to flee to Thailand, home already to 111,000 displaced persons from Burma.
The operation coincided with the Thai Asean Chairman's statement on Aung San Suu Kyi.
As long as this country fails to overcome these obstacles, it will find it very difficult in lending a hand to save Aung San Suu Kyi.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Reasons why Thailand can't push Burma too far
Burma gas sales surge but little cash leaks out
By Amy Kazmin in Rangoon
Published: May 11 2009 03:00 | Last updated: May 11 2009 03:00
Strong exports of natural gas have swollen Burma's foreign exchange reserves
to a record high but have not been used by the military regime to boost
health or education spending for the impoverished population, the
International Monetary Fund says in a report.
In its annual evaluation of Burma's economy, the IMF says the global
economic slowdown and the devastating May 2008 cyclone, which killed 140,000
people, have taken their toll. Gross domestic product growth slowed to about
4.5 per cent last year, from 5.5 per cent a year earlier.
Spending on extravagant showcase projects - such as the new political
capital, Naypitaw - is being financed by printing money, fuelling inflation
of about 30 per cent. Social spending, meanwhile, remains the lowest in
Asia, according to the IMF.
The report, which has not been publicly released but was obtained by the
Financial Times, says Burma's prospects "look bleak" if it fails to sweep
away socialist legacies - including the multiple exchange rate system and
stifling economic controls - or improve the deteriorating business climate.
How Burma's rulers use the revenue from natural gas exports to Thailand,
through pipelines operated by Total and Petronas, is also under scrutiny.
Gas revenues are added to the budget at the 30-year-old official exchange
rate of Kt6 to the dollar. The black market rate is about Kt1,000.
As a result the gas money has had "a small fiscal impact", accounting for
less than 1 per cent of budget revenue in 2007-08, instead of 57 per cent if
valued at market rates. The IMF has urged the regime to report gas sector
revenues at the market exchange rate to stabilise state finances.
The downbeat assessment comes as independent agricultural experts warn of
rising distress among Burmese farmers after a steep fall in prices at
harvest.
Analysts fear there will be a significant drop in rice planting in the
monsoon season, which begins soon, as heavily indebted farmers try to reduce
costs.
"The rural economy here is on the verge of some type of collapse," said one
Rangoon-based expert. "Rice farming is not profitable."
Analysing Burma's economic performance is challenging because of the paucity
of accurate and timely data. Many western policymakers still see Burma as
largely cut off from the global economy, especially after the US and EU
tightened sanctions following a harsh military crackdown on mass protests in
September 2007.
The IMF says the impact of western sanctions has been "moderated by strong
regional trade links", although the region's woes are hitting Burma's
natural gas, other commodity exports and remittance flows from millions of
Burmese working abroad.
"A lot of people thought that, since they have no banking system, they would
escape the impact of the crisis," said one diplomat. "But it's such a simple
economy, so dependent on commodity prices."
Burmese authorities have acknowledged the slowdown, though they still see
growth as a robust 10 per cent. Exchange reserves stand at $3.6bn (€2.7bn,
£2.4bn).
The IMF says growth will be about 4 per cent - "insufficient to reduce
poverty" without major reforms.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/795043a4-3dc2-11de-a85e-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
==============================
HIV/AIDS | New York Times Examines HIV/AIDS Treatment Access in Myanmar
[April 1, 2009]
The New York Times on Wednesday examined antiretroviral treatment access in
Myanmar, which ranks among the lowest countries worldwide in international
assistance per capita. Medecins Sans Frontieres runs 23 clinics in the
country, and the clinics serve as the primary source of antiretrovirals for
HIV-positive people in Myanmar, according to the Times. According to MSF,
240,000 people are living with HIV in Myanmar, and 76,000 are in urgent need
of antiretroviral access. In addition, about 25,000 HIV-positive people die
annually in the country.
MSF clinics have provided 11,000 HIV-positive people with drug access, but
the group has said that it cannot increase its budget in Myanmar without
taking funding away from projects elsewhere. MSF last year announced that it
had stopped accepting new patients to continue providing treatment to
current clients. This year, the group has accepted about 3,000 new patients.
"When we stopped last July, it was devastating for the staff," Joe
Belliveau, MSF operations manager, said, adding, "They couldn't even treat
the ones dying on their doorsteps."
The Global Fund To Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria this year has
applied for government permits to bring antiretrovirals into Myanmar, and
the Times reports that the number of HIV-positive people with treatment
access likely will increase. Currently, fewer than 20% of HIV-positive
people in need of drugs receive them -- either from international groups or
in small amounts from the government -- according to an MSF report released
in November 2008 (Mydans, New York Times, 4/1).
Online A New York Times photography slideshow is available online.
http://www.globalhealthreporting.org/article.asp?DR_ID=57803
==============================
Tuberculosis | Myanmar To Take Nationwide Census on TB Patients, Health
Ministry Says
[April 7, 2009]
Myanmar plans to take a nationwide census on the number of people with
tuberculosis beginning this month, officials from the Ministry of Health
said Sunday, Xinhuanet reports. According to Xinhuanet, Myanmar is one of
the 22 countries with the highest TB burdens worldwide.
According to the health ministry, about 130,000 TB patients were treated
successfully in 2008. The country reported an 87% TB case detection rate and
an 85% treatment success rate in 2008, the ministry said. The country spent
about $440,000 in fiscal year 2007-2008 to treat TB patients. According to
Xinhuanet, Myanmar is increasing efforts to fight HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria
to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. There are about
100,000 new TB cases annually in the country, Xinhuanet reports (Xinhuanet,
4/5).
http://www.globalhealthreporting.org/article.asp?DR_ID=57895
=============================
Nargis highlights extreme needs in rest of Myanmar
01 May 2009 18:06:00 GMT
Written by: A Myanmar writer
Reuters and AlertNet are not responsible for the content of this article or
for any external internet sites. The views expressed are the author's alone.
When Cyclone Nargis slammed into Myanmar last year it triggered a
humanitarian effort on a scale never before seen in the impoverished nation.
Attention from the media, donors and relief agencies prompted the brutal
regime to open its doors to foreign aid in the disaster zone.
In stark contrast, aid workers say the rest of Myanmar continues its
downward spiral with chronic food insecurity and health crises going largely
unchecked, resulting in tens of thousands of preventable deaths every year.
Figures from the United Nations show 10 percent of the population fall below
the poverty line, meaning 70 percent of their income is spent on food.
"That's 5 million people who are extremely vulnerable in terms of food
security and that's a lot in a country that's food surplus," said Chris
Kaye, country director of the United Nations' World Food Programme.
WFP says it's working to prevent a hunger crisis in northern Rakhine State,
where successive poor harvests, rising food prices as well as political
issues concerning the statelessness of the Muslim Rohingya minority have
contributed to a dire situation.
Other critical areas where WFP is providing food include Chin - the poorest
state in the country - where rat infestations have destroyed large parts of
last year's harvest, and former poppy farming areas in Shan state, where
villagers are facing a challenging transition from lucrative, easy to grow
poppy crops to subsistence farming.
HEALTH
In 2007, the government spent only $0.70 per person on healthcare, according
to medical charity Medicins Sans Frontieres (MSF).
Myanmar has one of the highest rates of tuberculosis (TB) in the world with
tens of thousands falling victim to the illness each year. In addition, a
multi-drug resistant strain of TB is also spreading, for which there is
currently no treatment in Myanmar.
Malaria remains the number one killer, and although the treatment is
available, it costs between $3 and $4 - still expensive in a country where
many people earn less than $2 a day.
Worse, a new strain of malaria that is resistant to artemisinin - the latest
and most effective drug to treat the disease - has been found in western
Cambodia, and there are fears that migrant Myanmar workers in the
Thai-Cambodia border area may bring it into the country.
HIV/AIDS also kills thousands a year due to lack of affordable drugs, aid
workers say. Myanmar has about 240,000 people living with HIV. And only a
fifth of the 75,000 or so needing anti-retroviral treatment (ART) receive
it.
But Frank Smithuis, MSF Holland's head of mission, says it's unfair to blame
the Myanmar government for the lack of ART.
"Of course it would be good if the Myanmar government spent more on ART," he
added. "But if you look at other countries in the area, take Laos and
Cambodia, national governments do not pay for ART, it's donors that actually
pay."
Andrew Kirkwood, country director for Save The Children UK in Myanmar,
agrees.
"One third of all children under five are malnourished, and about 100,000
kids under five die every year mostly of malaria, diarrhoea and pneumonia,
three diseases that we know how to treat exactly for pennies," he said.
"It's obscene that the international community isn't trying to do more about
that."
TO FUND OR NOT TO FUND?
Aid to Myanmar is a controversial issue and like everything else about the
country, politicised.
Donors have a range of concerns, from whether their aid actually reaches
those who need it most to the junta's well-documented human rights abuses,
not to mention the debate over whether areas such as healthcare and food
security are the government's responsibility.
Overseas development aid in Myanmar has always been low. According to U.N.
figures from 2005, Myanmar received less than $3 per person in aid while
other developing countries in the region such as Laos and Cambodia received
over $50 and $37 respectively.
But Save The Children UK, which has 1,500 staff in the country, says the
last year's cyclone relief efforts should show it is possible to provide
effective humanitarian aid.
"Hopefully, if there's a silver lining in the Nargis experience, it has
demonstrated to the international community just what can be done inside the
country with assistance," Kirkwood said.
Reuters AlertNet is not responsible for the content of external websites.
http://www.alertnet.org/db/blogs/58220/2009/04/1-180659-1.htm
==========================
Goh’s Comments Significant
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=15920
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By WAI MOE Wednesday, June 10, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Former Singaporean Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong told junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe that Suu Kyi’s trial had “an international dimension to the matter, which Myanmar [Burma] should not ignore.”
According to Channel News Asia, Goh’s comments came during a meeting with Than Shwe in Naypyidaw on Tuesday, adding to the diplomatic pressure on the Burmese junta over pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s trial.
Goh Chok Tong had a frank discussion with Snr-Gen Than Shwe at their meeting in the capital Naypyidaw. (Source: Straits Times)
Win Tin, one of the leaders of Burma’s main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), said he welcomed the Senior Minister of Singapore’s comments on Burma’s political crisis.
“I want to say that Mr Goh Chok Tong’s trip is a good diplomatic approach. I appreciate his trip and his comments on Burmese politics,” he told The Irrawaddy on Wednesday.
He said Goh’s trip is significant because Singapore is the country that has attempted to drag the isolated Burmese regime into the international community through its “constructive engagement policy.”
Singapore is also one of biggest investors in Burma and supported Burma’s membership with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in 1997.
Win Tin said he hopes Goh noted the wrongdoings of the junta in Burma and suggested ways to alleviate the suffering in the country.
Commenting on the potential for an all-inclusive process in Burmese politics, Win Tin said he believes that the term “all-inclusive” should mean not only in respect of elections, but also an all-inclusive process in all political issues in Burma.
He also said that elections are important in the democratization process, but that the regime must review the constitution alongside opposition parties.
According to Channel News Asia, the Burmese leadership responded to Goh’s comments by noting that “the opposition [in Burma] needs to recognize that the military plays a pivotal role in the reconciliation process.”
Win Tin told The Irrawaddy that the junta’s comments were untrue, as the NLD has always stated that it recognizes the military’s role.
Goh, one of Asia’s most prominent statesmen and currently Senior Member of the Singaporean government, is in Burma at the invite of Burmese Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein who visited the city-state in March 2009.
However, Burma analysts said Goh would use Singapore’s strong position in Asean to push concerns about the political situation in Burma.
Larry Jagan, a British journalist in Bangkok who specializes in Burmese issues, told The Irrawaddy on Wednesday that although Goh visited Burma as the Singaporean Senior Minister, he could informally act as an envoy on behalf of Asean to tell Than Shwe face-to-face what Asean members think about the criminal trial of Suu Kyi and the Burmese political situation.
“Goh Chok Tong is a senior politician within Asean. He is someone that Than Shwe has high regard for. So, he has the kind of stature that is needed as someone who can go to talk with Than Shwe frankly,” Jagan said.
“What he told Than Shwe is more his personal view than Asean’s view,” he added. “But his concerns [about the trial and the political crisis in Burma] are shared by most Asean leaders.”
Singapore is one of the Burmese regime’s most important diplomatic relatives and trading partners. Burma experts suspect millions of dollars of the generals’ and their cronies’ money are in Singaporean banks.
The Burmese junta, who is under sanctions from the United States and the European Union, has attempted to trade with the world through Singapore, experts say.
The former British island colony also serves as a hospice and retreat for Burma’s ruling generals, including Than Shwe, the late Gen Soe Win and the late Lt-Gen Maung Bo.
Military affairs also play a role in the two countries’ relationship. Burmese military experts have claimed that the Burmese junta has bought warfare material from the Singaporean government in the past.
Analysts have said Goh’s trip is quite significant as a diplomatic approach, because he was able to meet with Than Shwe who earlier this year rebuffed Ibrahim Gambari, the UN special envoy to Burma.
Debbie Stothard of Alternative Asean Network on Burma said Asean leaders are now showing their concerns over the ongoing political process in the country.
“But just one trip is nothing as far as diplomatic efforts for change in Burma are concerned,” she said, adding, “Asean should push continuously. Burma issues are now a problem for Asean.”
Copyright © 2008 Irrawaddy Publishing Group | www.irrawaddy.org
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