News & Articles on Burma-Tuesday, 02 August, 2011

News & Articles on Burma
Tuesday, 02 August, 2011
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New-generation war in Myanmar
Military Rule in Burma
DKBA to escalate border conflict
Russia to build metro in Naypyidaw: reports
‘Brand Burma’ a failure, experts say
Nationwide cease-fire demand prevents KIO-government agreement
Did Senior-General Than Shwe pick the wrong commander in chief?
Is Burma Really No. 1 in Internet attack traffic?
Burma needs wide-ranging international pressure for political change
Myanmar Offers Vast Business, Investment Opportunities
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ASIA TIMES ONLINE: Aug 3, 2011
New-generation war in Myanmar
By Tony Cliff

LAIZA, Myanmar - "At first the Burmese soldiers were looking very confident, they were moving up on the road shouting and shooting towards the jungle. They just did not realize we were hiding around," said Aung Myat, a 27-year-old soldier with the insurgent Kachin Independence Army (KIA)'s 23rd Battalion.

When the government troops arrived, the insurgent soldiers triggered landmines and started to shoot. The clash was the first of a series of confrontations in the area which lasted almost three days, according to Aung Myat. In the evening of July 18, back in the relative safety of Hkaya Bum camp, the battalion's bamboo barrack headquarters, the young insurgents released an excess of adrenaline when telling their war stories.

Their animated conversation was stifled by the roar of a heavy monsoon rain; a thick mist blanketed the whole area. Between sips from beer cans and puffs from cigarettes brought earlier by a supply truck, they traded their stories with an almost childish excitement, mimicking with their arms the handling of machine guns. "We counted at least eight bodies, including four or five incinerated in a vehicle we destroyed with a grenade, but surely there were more," said Aung Myat.

At 27, Aung Myat is one of the eldest in the battalion: most of the other guerrillas are around 20 years of age. For all of them it was their first ever combat experience. Less than 10 kilometers (km) to the east from the battlefield road, across a succession of jungle-covered hills down a narrow valley, lies Laiza, a small city of 10,000 people that houses the headquarters of the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the KIA's sister political organization. Laiza is crossed by a stream marking the Chinese border.

Rumors spread by exile media groups of massive Myanmar military reinforcements and of an imminent offensive hardly seem to have reached the city. Schools, shops and hotels remain open while people attend to their business as usual. Yet two new developments are a reminder that the situation is exceptional and potentially grave. As a safety measure, Chinese authorities have closed the border gate in the middle of downtown from 6 pm to 6 am, presumably to avoid a flood of refugees into their territory.

Thousands of people, mostly women and children, can already be seen crammed in a few locations such as the city hall, a cardboard factory warehouse and the "Manau", a vast ground where the ethnic Kachin organize traditional celebrations. These are the civilians who left their villages when armed hostilities first broke out on June 9. On that day, there was a violent clash at the site of the Dapein dam, about 50 km south of Laiza. The exchange of gunfire signaled the end of 17 years of ceasefire between the Myanmar military and the KIA.

From 1989 onwards, some 15 armed ethnic insurgent groups concluded separate ceasefire agreements with Myanmar's ruling junta. The Kachin had always looked like an exception in Myanmar's complex ethnic jigsaw. With a size of 89,000 square km, more than twice the size of Switzerland, their state is one the country's largest administrative entities. But with an estimated population of 1.36 million (based on 2002 official statistics, the latest available), it's also one of the country's least inhabited areas because of the steep mountains that cover nearly half of the state.

The predominantly Christian Kachin ethnic population is estimated at 1.2 million (out of a total national population of 55 million), half of them living in the Kachin State, the other half in other parts of Myanmar. About 300,000 Kachin also live in neighboring China, where they are known as Jinpo. For historical reasons, the Kachin have managed to develop a strong social and educational system, making them arguably one of the most sophisticated ethnic groups in Myanmar.

The agreement with the Kachin, signed in 1994, was the only one formalized on paper. Essentially, it defined a framework for future business deals with and without Myanmar companies and delineated a portion of the Kachin State that would fall under the KIO's control. However, the document was never made public, which made the assessment of its implementation difficult.

Kareng La Nan,* [1] a teacher from Myitkyina, summarizes many of his ethnic companions' opinions: "Those 17 years have surely brought stability, some social and economic developments and less-human rights violations but we have gained absolutely nothing on the political level."

As with other armed ethnic groups, the Kachin have abandoned their previous claim for independence. Instead, they have demanded a certain degree of autonomy over their own affairs which would guarantee respect for their own rights and culture.

Except for certain Kachin leaders, other politically connected individuals and large private companies who took advantage of business opportunities allowed for in the agreement, many people now view the ceasefire as a fool's bargain. The long list of grievances has fueled the new hostilities. Kachin land, they say, has been systematically looted of its natural resources. The ethnic group has all but lost to the benefit of Burmese companies the lucrative trade in jade which fueled the insurgent organization for decades.

Giant business groups affiliated with the military junta, such as Yuzana, Htoo Trading or Asia World, took up in Kachin State massive production of tapioca and the exploitation of hydropower, timber and various minerals. Still, the sharper arrows are aimed at the Chinese companies which have invested heavily in gold mining, hydropower and other products such as timber with allegedly very little benefit for the local population.

This perceived "one-way" investment policy has stirring up an anti-Chinese feeling with many people. "When they develop large plantations of bananas with export quality standards or gold mining, they bring their own equipment and workers and they don't share with the locals," complains a KIA cadre.

The current most sensitive Chinese investment is the construction of the Myitsone dam, 40 kilometers north of Myitkyina at a site considered by Kachin as a cultural heartland, with a planned capacity of 6,000 megawatts. To many Kachin, the project is an environmental abomination.

Activists say the water in the planned reservoir will put immense pressure on the underground soil and water system. Environmental groups also warn about potential detrimental effects downstream on the lives of millions of people who depend on the Irrawaddy River's system. It also may be, although this is not confirmed, that the electricity from the dams will be exported entirely to China.

The last straw, it seems, was the junta's order in 2009 to various ethnic armed ceasefire groups to transform into Border Guard Forces (BGF) that must disarm and submit under government officers' command. "It was nothing less than an order to surrender," comments one long-time observer of the ethnic groups.

The KIO, as well as other groups such as the Wa and the Mon, rejected the BGF order and proposed alternative plans which were all flatly rejected by the junta. Subsequently, the KIO was officially declared an outlaw organization.

The June 9 clash marked the official return to armed conflict. "They created this incident as an excuse to penetrate into our territory," claims Zau Awn, the KIO's administrator officer at the central region. However, it looks like the Myanmar military's strategists underestimated the resolve of the Kachin. Perhaps they thought they could repeat the operation they launched in August 2009 against the ethnic Kokang, another armed group who rejected the BGF and was crushed in a few days of fighting.

Under a banner in the Kachin language reading "Operation Victory Journey" in a large meeting room at the downtown Laiza Hotel which has been transformed into a central command post, General Gun Maw, the KIA's 46-year-old deputy chief of staff, sums up many Kachin officers' opinions, "The Burmese soldiers don't have the motivation and very little support from their own people."

Interviews with three Myanmar military prisoners of war in Laiza seem to confirm this assessment. Asked whether he knew the reasons why he was sent here, Aung Myo Hlat,* a 36- year-old captain with the 21st Infantry Battalion, paused for a long minute before finally saying: "I am a soldier, I had to obey."

Soe Myint,* a 48-year-old career sergeant, recalls how he fell unconscious in the bush after a bullet went through his left arm. "I don't know why we are fighting, I just remember that I lost a lot of blood, I fainted and was left alone. When I woke up I was into KIA's hands."

Htoo Lay,* a 22-year-old Karen ethnic private attached to an artillery unit, did not even ask to join the army. "I was forcibly conscripted three years ago by officers while I was waiting for a train at Mandalay railway station." He was hit in the back by shrapnel. "I did not know what to do, the injury was not too bad, I just hid in the bush, KIA soldiers came and shouted 'we won't shoot you, just come out', I came out, I never used my weapon."

Like his two companions and probably like most Burmese soldiers, he was experiencing his first combat. Aung Kyaw Zaw, a former soldier with the Burmese Communist Party who has maintained good relations with ethnic groups along the Chinese border, makes a stark assessment based on his historical knowledge, "The quality of the Burmese army rank and file has never been so low."

The KIA claims it has sent a letter to the Myanmar authorities proposing to deliver the prisoners. "We got no answer," says a KIA officer. "After their return in their army, the prisoners will probably be court-martialed, they will be charged with lack of responsibility, loss of weapon and giving intelligence to the enemy. The officers will get at least seven years of jail."

As the ethnic groups long-time observer says, "The Kachin are feared by many people for their fighting capabilities. During WWII [World War II], when they fought alongside the British, they were given strong credit for helping to kick the Japanese out. They have this 'we can do, we can stand on our own' mentality."

The determination of Kachin soldiers is further strengthened by the knowledge that their enemy's weaponry on the field is not really superior to theirs. In a Hkaya Bum barrack, the KIA laid their arms catch from the three days of battle. Mixed with identity documents, mobile phones, money, family pictures and other personal items, Burmese rifles, machine guns, mortars, grenades and other landmines are arranged. Much of the weaponry would look more appropriate in a museum than on a modern battlefield.

While the Kachin will be happy to use these relics against their original owners, they also manufacture their own weaponry. Copies of the famous AK-47, mortars, landmines and other items are made by Kachin gunsmiths in secret armories. The KIA claims to have around 6,000 standing soldiers and can count on as many as 8,000 more village militias composed of women and men who have received basic military training and been provided with weapons. (Asia Times Online could not independently verify the figures.)

The Myanmar military's main comparative strength is its artillery fire power. Yet any attempt to capture Laiza would represent a stiff test of its capabilities. Only two roads lead to the city. In the current monsoon season, rain and mud have made the northern access all but inaccessible while the KIA claim they can maintain strategic control of the southern road. If the Myanmar military used heavy artillery to shell Laiza across the hill ranges, they would inevitably send mortars into Chinese territory, with the risk of provoking an international incident.

So far the KIA's strategy has been to defend its territory and positions against any incursion. Sabotage operations, such as blowing up bridges, have also been conducted. "Since we are declared outlaw, we have started to lay landmines to protect our positions," adds Major Kumbu Din, the KIA's 5th Brigade commander.

The renewed conflict has brought its share of human misery. At the time of writing, more than 17,000 villagers had fled their homes to safer areas, mostly along the Chinese border. The majority of them left in anticipation rather than in response to fighting. Mali Bawk La, a 70-year-old farmer from Nam San village, walked some 30 kilometers with his six family members to Laiza. "The tension was growing, we feared that the Burmese soldiers would capture us and force us to do things like [act as] porters," he said.

According to the KIO, an estimated 6,500 displaced people have managed to cross the Chinese border to live with Jinpo relatives. Another 7,500 are taken care of by the KIO in temporary camps, including more than 6,000 in Laiza. The rest are scattered in Myitkyina and in western areas of the vast state. Anticipating a long war, the KIA has already started to build 500 bamboo houses along the Chayan river down from Laiza which will accommodate 7,000 people.

"So far we could count on the KIO's administration, donations from individuals and churches and the help of many young Kachin volunteers who came from all over the country," says La Rip, the relief effort coordinator in Laiza. "Maybe the situation looks normal but it won't be at all as long as there is no ceasefire. If the crisis lasts or gets worse we will certainly need outside help."

There are also credible reports of human-rights abuses committed by Myanmar army soldiers against Kachin civilians. The Laiza-based Kachin Women Association has documented at least 18 cases of rape, sometimes aggravated with murder, between June 10 and 18. More recently, on July 21, a KIA female officer reported the rape of a nurse in a local clinic. A nurse running a clinic in a Kachin village, says that she "never heard about rape cases before the fighting started".

The conflict has had at least two unexpected consequences. First, many Kachins confirm that support for the KIA is once again on the rise. That has not always been the case: under the ceasefire it was not rare to hear criticism of the Kachin leadership, who many felt had sold out the state's land and resources for their own personal gain.

Second, government pressure to join its BGF scheme and other recent developments have radicalized a new generation of Kachin youth that was raised in peace time conditions. "Everyone wants to go to war," shouted a young businessman coming out from a Sunday mass at the Laiza Baptist church. "It's time for the Kachin people to free themselves from the Burmese regime. We like [opposition leader] Aung San Suu Kyi but her appeals for non-violence have failed."

Within the KIA, the conflict has also signaled a changing of the guard. "The old leaders who still want to compromise without a political agreement have no say anymore," says a young KIA cadre. Yet even though many Kachin don't see any other way than armed resistance to push their grievances, nearly everyone wishes for a negotiated settlement.

La Nan, the KIO's spokesman, said the Kachin are determined to stick to a three-point proposal. "First we will try to establish a temporary ceasefire in our area; secondly, we want the same for the whole country; thirdly, we want a political dialogue where all ethnic armed groups will be represented by the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC)." (UNFC is an organization formed in February with three ceasefire groups and three non-ceasefire groups who advocate for a federal union.)

A June 30 meeting between government and Kachin delegations failed to reach any agreement, though contacts are reportedly ongoing. The Kachin side has blamed the government for sending a team with no real negotiating power and no clear mandate from Naypyidaw, Myanmar's capital. "The Burmese told us 'let's work peacefully so let's go for a ceasefire'," said Gun Maw. "But there is no political agreement, it's just a call to facilitate the life of people for business purposes."

The mid-July clashes down from Hkaya Bum camp were the most intense of the nascent conflict. Since then there have been sporadic skirmishes, but apparently without a concerted strategy from the Myanmar military. The two sides have reportedly resumed contacts in recent days, without clear results. Meanwhile, those in Kachin State hold their breath, hoping for real peace and autonomy, not just another ceasefire.

Note
1. Names marked with an asterisk * have been changed for security reasons.

Tony Cliff, a pseudonym, is a Bangkok-based freelance photojournalist. He may be reached at tonycliff7@gmail.com.

(Copyright 2011 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.) http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/MH03Ae03.html
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Military Rule in Burma
The American Spectator
By Doug Bandow on 8.2.11 @ 6:08AM

For a half century, the impoverished people of Burma (also known as Myanmar) have lived under a brutal military dictatorship. Although Burma has not seen mass starvation as in the so-called Democratic People's Republic of Korea, unrelenting wars are raging against numerous ethnic groups seeking autonomy.

Until recently the military, headed by Gen. Than Shwe, constituted the State Peace and Development Council: a junta that promoted its version of peace and development by imprisoning democracy advocates in the cities, impeding provision of humanitarian aid in the delta, and killing guerrillas and civilians alike in the more distant eastern hills. Oppression has led to poverty for the Burmese people.

However, not everyone is poor. As in most dictatorships, members of the regime and their families and friends have profited abundantly from political power. U.S. and European sanctions provide their only impediment to fiscal success.

Those sanctions, unfortunately, do nothing to promote democracy or improve the condition of the Burmese people, and serve merely to bother the ruling elite. With China, India, and other Asian states active in the Burmese markets, there has been no lack of opportunity for Shwe & Co. to travel and spend their ill-gotten gains.

Nevertheless, Shwe's regime desires recognition and money from the West. So last year Shwe proclaimed the end of military rule. Numerous military officers resigned from the army. An election was held and Burma launched a charm offensive overseas. Domestic democracy activists hoped the process would be a harbinger of change. Foreign human rights activists hoped the process would spark the start of reform.

It did nothing. The regime had learned from 1990, when it foolishly allowed a free election and the overwhelming majority backed Aung San Suu Kyi​, daughter of a revered general who helped win Burma's independence after World War II​. The regime had to void the election, arrest Suu Kyi and suppress her party, resulting in domestic bloodshed and international obloquy.

So this time the junta decided to enforce "disciplined democracy." After the SPDC wrote a new constitution and drafted new election rules to ensure its supremacy, the military chose as president former General Thein Sein​. Human Rights Watch called Sein "a ruthless loyalist with a well-established past in command positions during some of Burma's darker and most corrupt periods." Four years ago he was prime minister when protestors were murdered on the streets.

The military also guaranteed itself numerous legislative seats, barred its most dangerous opponents (including now-Nobel Laureate Suu Kyi) from running, prohibited campaign criticism of itself, and placed the vote count in its own hands. Surprise, surprise, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (the SPDC's captive political organization filled with former military officers) won an overwhelming victory last November.

Since then the government has jailed democracy activists in the cities, controlled access to the rural areas, and killed guerrillas and civilians in the more distant eastern hills. More than 100,000 Burmese have been forced over the border into Thailand and millions have been displaced within their own country. The verdant eastern Burmese landscape has been sown with land mines, resulting in debilitating human injuries and costly livestock deaths. I have met many children orphaned by the ruling junta's policy of oppression, and their stories are devastating.

Though 110 political prisoners have been released, several others have been newly arrested and an estimated 2100 languish in prison (twice the number from just four years ago). Suu Kyi was freed from house arrest after the election and a government minister met with her last week, but she is barred from participating in politics, her party remains banned, and many of her associates remain in prison. Moreover, the government has not so subtly threatened her with violence ("chaos and riots") if she travels outside of Rangoon. In May 2003 a military-inspired mob killed more than 70 of her supporters and nearly murdered her.

When thousands of Buddhist monks helped lead a series of peaceful anti-government protests dubbed "The Saffron Revolution" in 2007, the Burmese government responded with shameful brutality. Demonstrators were shot, activists were imprisoned. Even the monks, though revered in Burmese society, were beaten and detained. The movement of monks is now restricted and their sermons are censored.

The old SPDC agreed to ceasefires with some ethnic groups, but launched a new offensive against the Karen people shortly after last November's election. Earlier this year the new "civilian" government launched similar attacks against the Shan in the north, pushing refugees into China.

In January Burma underwent its Universal Periodic Review by the Human Rights Council. Filled with repressive regimes, the HRC is a pretty forgiving body. And the Burmese military performed remarkably well in its review, claiming that it ran free elections, censored no media, held no political prisoners, and fought no ethnic groups. David Scott Mathieson of Human Rights Watch called it "a Monty Python-like defense whose central comedic device was total denial."

The people responsible for Burma's success have simply changed out of uniforms and put on suits. Nothing else has changed. General-President Thein Sein's new agenda of "national reconciliation" is another way of saying "military domination." Distressed at the lack of reform, two senior diplomats at Burma's embassy in Washington defected last month.

Unfortunately, there is little the international community can do. The U.S. and Europe have applied sanctions, but with little effect. Few nations formally defend the Burmese junta, but its neighbors benefit from trade in teak and other resources. China seeks a geopolitical edge, with India in close pursuit. The ASEAN member-states dream of better times in Rangoon but do nothing; in fact, Burma is scheduled to take over chairmanship of that organization in 2014.

The elections were seen as a possible opening for increased Western engagement. So far, however, the regime has rejected any substantive reforms, including the single step which would best signify change: releasing all political prisoners. Perhaps change will come after Than Shwe dies, though for 50 years every dictator has been followed by another dictator. Sadly, the Burmese Gorbachev has yet to emerge. http://spectator.org/archives/2011/08/02/military-rule-in-burma#
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DKBA to escalate border conflict
By AYE NAI
Published: 2 August 2011

Factions of the opposition Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) has said it will intensify attacks on Burmese troops in and around its territory in a bid to weaken government forces fighting in the northern and eastern border regions.

Burma’s eastern frontier has been beset by heavy conflict since November last year, when the DKBA took up positions in the border town of Myawaddy. Since then a number of armed groups, including the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and the All Burma Students’ Democratic Front (ABSDF), have formed a nominal alliance in an effort to drive government troops out.

Officials from the DKBA’s Brigade 5, which is led by Na Kham Mwe and whose troops first launched attacks on government positions in November, met with the Myainggyingu faction yesterday. The latter had initially accepted demands to become a government-controlled Border Guard Force, but defected in May this year.

San Aung, battalion commander of Brigade 5, told DVB that both units had tabled the idea of launching synchronised attacks to hinder Burmese offenses against other ethnic groups, such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Burma’s north and Shan State Army in the east.

Rather than deploying troops to these regions, the DKBA would look to significantly weaken government forces in Karen state, he said, adding that representatives of the ABSDF and the Arakan Liberation Army were also at the meeting.

Since a United Nationalities Federation Council was formed in March, ostensibly aimed at drawing various ethnic armies under one allied umbrella, little tangible cooperation has been seen.

This is largely down to the fact that four of the six member groups – the KIA, the KNLA, the New Mon State Party (NMSP) and Shan State Army (SSA) – have all been engaged in heavy fighting after refusing to transform to border militias. http://www.dvb.no/news/dkba-to-escalate-border-conflict/16834
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Russia to build metro in Naypyidaw: reports
By FRANCIS WADE
Published: 2 August 2011

The Burmese government has awarded Russia a tender to develop the country’s first underground rail service in its remote capital, reports on Russian media suggest.

Details about the proposed project for Naypyidaw are vague. The Voice of Russia media group carried a short report on 13 July quoting the “project’s chief architect” as saying that experts were conducting geological surveys “and designing the first line”, expected to be 50 kilometres long.

The plan appears ambitious given the woeful state of Burma’s existing transport services, with much of the country inaccessible and roads in the economic hub of Rangoon in a state of decay.

But the core of Naypyidaw, where the capital was moved to in 2006, remains a veritable beacon of development: the vast majority of civil servants also relocated when Rangoon was abandoned as the administrative centre, and the city is fed with round-the-clock electricity, despite much of the country being starved of power.

Documents leaked to DVB several years ago suggested the government had plans for a metro in Naypyidaw that appeared to be part of its larger military bunker project exposed by DVB in the investigative documentary, Burma’s Nuclear Ambitions.

The plotted metro line ran close to a vast underground command centre on the outskirts of Naypyidaw, which witnesses said was being built to house thousands of personnel.

Experts consulted at the time said however that the government would need outside help for the rail line, with North Korea mentioned as a possible benefactor giving that top Burmese officials toured Pyongyang’s metro system during a secret visit there in November 2008.

The following month the same delegation, led by Shwe Mann, the current parliamentary speaker, inspected Beijing’s metro, a visit that was documented in the official post-trip write-up obtained by DVB.

Russia is yet to embark on any major infrastructural projects in Burma, where bids for such developments are often quickly snapped up by China, but has sought to develop closer ties with Burma as it looks to boost its security presence in the Asia-Pacific.
Relations are already strong on a number of fronts, however, with young Burmese army personnel regularly sent for technological training in Moscow.
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‘Brand Burma’ a failure, experts say
By FRANCIS WADE
Published: 2 August 2011

The world is viewing Burma and its myriad domestic crises with increased despondency, according to a ranking of 200 countries based on international perceptions of their “brand” as depicted by media.

Since the East West Nation Brand Perception Index was first published in 2008, Burma has steadfastly remained in the bottom fifth, and in the second quarter of this year dropped to 176, two places below that of North Korea.

The company behind the somewhat unorthodox index says it is compiled by “analysing millions of mentions of countries in hundreds of thousands of news articles, every [yearly] quarter” and defining whether they are positive or negative. It says it makes sure to factor in the “overall quality of the media and the prominence of the country”.

Burma fell to its lowest position of 184 in the first and third quarters of 2009, the latter period coming shortly after the junta extended opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s house arrest.

Picking up again in 2010, however, it took its highest place of 165 in the third quarter, when talk of the pending November elections and Suu Kyi’s release began to catch international media attention. But the fanfare surrounding both events was short-lived, and it fell over two consecutive quarters of 2011, despite efforts by the government to shore up its cracked facade and project an image of reform.

Somewhat surprisingly however, Malaysia topped the table for the second quarter of 2011, although its score of 91 against second-place Canada’s 76 would have been calculated prior to the ugly July crackdown on protestors in Kuala Lumpur.

At the bottom of the table for January to April this year was Libya, whose position was taken by Syria for the second quarter – both countries have seen massive popular protests this year brutally suppressed by leaders.

The concept of “nation branding” is an official government policy of many developed countries, including the US, France and the UK – where the government has set up a Public Diplomacy Board tasked with improving the country’s image abroad – as well as China and South Korea. Colombia is also known to be embarking on various initiatives aimed at improving its international profile.

Except for questionable efforts in state-run media however, Burma appears to have so far shunned the practice.

Experts say the main purpose of nation branding is to project an image of a strong environment for foreign investment, something Burma is struggling to do as conflict in the border regions significantly jeopardises infrastructural and energy projects financed by China, Thailand and other countries in the neighbourhood.

A statement released by the Washington DC-based EarthRights International warned that profits made by foreign companies working in Burma could in fact be outweighed by the material and reputational risks.

That notion rang true for Thai engineering giant Ital-Thai, which is behind the Tavoy deep-sea port project in southern Burma, last week when 50 of its workers were forced to flee a construction side close to the Burmese border after their camp was hit by artillery fire.

Chinese workers in Kachin state have also experienced several close shaves after being trapped in a hydropower site in June while fighting erupted around them. http://www.dvb.no/news/brand-burma-a-failure-experts-say/16845
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Nationwide cease-fire demand prevents KIO-government agreement
Tuesday, 02 August 2011 10:26 Phanida

Chiang Mai (Mizzima) – Despite an ongoing dialogue between the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) and the Burmese government in Laja Yang village in Kachin State on Monday, the two sides failed to reach an agreement.

Colonel Than Aung, right, minister for security and border affairs. Photo: KNG

Colonel Than Aung, right, minister for security and border affairs. Photo: KNG
The main obstacle continues to be the KIO demand for the government to negotiate a nationwide cease-fire with all armed ethnic groups.

The five KIO delegates led by Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Gum Maw and three government delegates of the “peace making and negotiation group” led by Colonel Than Aung, the Minister for Security and Border affairs, held a two-and-half hour meeting in Laja Yang in Waimaw Township, a KIO-controlled area in the Kachin State.

Government delegates maintained their position of only wanting to negotiate a cease-fire in Kachin State, after which other agreements could be negotiated, said Colonel Zau Yaw, commander of KIO Brigade No. 4.

KIO joint secretary La Nang said that the two sides agreed to continue the face-to-face political dialogue.
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“The result of today’s meeting cannot make us sign. We need to hold more meetings. That depends on them. For us to sign, it depends on how much the government wants stability in the nation,” La Nang said.

The government delegates said that they would forward the results of the meeting to superiors, according to the KIO. Government delegates returned to Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin State, on Monday.

Operation Commander Colonel Tun Tun Ohn of the Northern Command and Major Naing Lin of the Military Affairs Department did not attend Monday’s meeting, or the previous meetings. The five-member government negotiating committee was formed on June 27 by Kachin State Chief Minister La John Ngan Hsai.

The government delegates and government security forces were met by KIO security forces halfway between Shwenyaungpin and Garya Yang villages.

Since July 28, the KIO has called on the Burmese government to stop launching offensives against ethnic armed groups in Kachin State and Shan State within 48 hours after signing a cease-fire agreement and to issue a statement saying the government will hold a political dialogue to achieve a nationwide cease-fire within 15 days.

A KIO letter sent to Burmese authorities said that the agreement should be written in English and Burmese and urged President Thein Sein to state his opinion about the 1947 Panglong Agreement, which gave equal rights and more autonomy to ethnic groups. http://www.mizzima.com/special/kachin-battle-report/5707-nationwide-cease-fire-demand-prevents-kio-government-agreement.html
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Did Senior-General Than Shwe pick the wrong commander in chief?
Tuesday, 02 August 2011 16:59 Salai Z. T. Lian

(Commentary) – Senior-General Than Shwe named his trusted colleague Min Aung Hlaing as commander in chief on March 30. Inevitably, some people criticized the decision, saying General Min Aung Hlaing only received the name of commander in chief, when in fact Than Shwe remains the most powerful man in the Burmese military.

But there is a question over how long Than Shwe can continue commanding Gen Min Aung Hlaing now that he is the designated military commander in chief. After being appointed, no Burmese general has listened to their former boss for very long time.

For example, Than Shwe used to obey the former ruler of Burma, General Ne Win, but after he consolidated full power, he no longer listened to him. He even put his former boss under house arrest.

It’s quite understandable that Than Shwe thought that he had made sure to give power to someone who would be loyal to him and who would listen to his directions. That’s why he picked Gen Min Aung Hlaing to take over—but who can predict whether what happened to Gen Ne Win will not happen to Than Shwe?

It is very common in the Burmese military that soldiers are extremely obedient to their masters. They fear their boss like God, but when they take their turn in power, they slowly turn their back on their former senior. So the question is, how long will Gen Min Aung Hlaing be loyal to his boss Than Shwe?

Than Shwe may think that Min Aung Hlaing will never turn his back on him, but look what happened to Gen Ne Win—Than Shwe put him under house arrest until he died on 5 December, 2002. Many would not be surprised if Gen Min Aung Hlaing turned his back on Than Shwe or arrested him. Of course, many Burmese people are familiar with such actions.

How will their relationship develop if the commander in chief develops real power?

Look at what Gen Min Aung Hlaing is doing right now. He seems to be trying to do the things differently, not like his boss Than Shwe. Perhaps he is intent on showing the Burmese military who is their boss. He has reshuffled regional commanders, and dismissed Maj-Gen Tun Than from the army on corruption charges, as well as summoning five military generals to Nyapyitaw to face a graft inquiry.

Gen Min Aung Hlaing understands there is rivalry within the army so he will try to gain full power to do his job and try to earn respect so that no one will dare to challenge him. After he reaches the top and Than Shwe can’t control him anymore, we will find out who Gen Min Aung Hlaing really is.

At some point, Than Shwe will ask himself whether he picked the right commander in chief. And at the same time, Gen Min Aung Hlaing may mull over his gratitude to Than Shwe for the senior-most post, wondering why he trusted him.
Such thoughts could prove incendiary between the two men.

Before long, Gen Min Aung Hlaing will be unwilling to play the role of baby, even though Than Shwe would like to keep him in the crib. At that point, we’ll have a clear picture as to whether Than Shwe picked the wrong commander in chief. http://www.mizzima.com/edop/commentary/5711-did-senior-general-than-shwe-pick-the-wrong-commander-in-chief.html
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Is Burma Really No. 1 in Internet attack traffic?
Tuesday, 02 August 2011 11:35 Aye Lae

Chiang Mai (Mizzima) – The “State of the Internet Report” published by the US Internet Technology firm Akamai has identified Burma as the top source of Internet attack traffic. Burmese Internet experts have expressed doubts about the claim.

Despite its very slow Internet connections and a limited number of Internet users, Burma was ranked No. 1 in the list of sources of attack traffic, generating 13 percent of attack traffic worldwide during the first quarter of 2011, according to the report.


The report used the word “most notably” to express its [Akamai’s] finding in which 199 countries were cited as originating attacks during the first quarter of 2011.

The US and Taiwan held the second and third places, respectively, the report said.

Aung Myo Kyaw, an IT specialist from with the India-based Burma Information Technology Team, said that some attack traffic might not have been carried out by Burmese citizens, but that the Internet paths in Burma might be misused by people in other countries to carry out attacks.

“In today’s world, we cannot definitely say that it was carried out by Burmese citizens. We need to be aware that the restrictions on ‘immigration’ in the Internet world are many times lower than those in the real world,” he said. He said it was possible that tourists in Burma also could carry out attacks.

Another IT expert in Burma who asked for anonymity said that Internet Service Providers (ISP) in Burma had weak points regarding security, such as giving data regarding Internet servers to customers.

“The first weak point is that in accordance with the ‘Network Designs,’ Internet users in Burma have to fill out facts (regarding internet servers) when they use the Internet. Hackers can get those facts easily. No country gives out facts regarding international level Internet servers,” the IT expert said.

On the other hand, some local and foreign experts have said that the Burmese army has given students at the Defence Services Technological Academy (DSTA) scholarships to foreign countries to learn technologies to be used in "cyber warfare."

IT experts said that officers who graduated with computer-related degrees in Russia controlled Internet networking systems in Burma.

In Burma, the Myanmar [Burma] Posts and Telecommunications provides limited Internet bandwidth connection for civilians in Burma, while government departments and the army are provided with high bandwidth connections under the Ministry of Defence, according to a local IT expert.

Former Major Sai Thein Win who defected from the Burmese army said that his Facebook and Gmail accounts were hacked in early May 2011, probably by hackers in Burma.

“The reason for a growing number of Internet attacks originating from Burma is probably that the government is trying to carry out more investigations about opposition groups and people,” Sai Thein Win said.

According to figures compiled by MPT, there were 400,000 Internet users in Burma as of July 2010.

How to account for Burma’s No. 1 world rating, surpassing countries that are far more advanced technically, remains a puzzle. http://www.mizzima.com/news/inside-burma/5708-is-burma-really-no-1-in-internet-attack-traffic.html
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Burma needs wide-ranging international pressure for political change
August 1, 2011 at 12:55:23
By Zin Linn
opednews.com

The talk concerned a Burmese delegation led by Colonel Than Aung, leaders of the Kachin Consultative Council and KIO military wing the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), said KIO Joint-Secretary La Nan. KIA leaders included vice-chief-of-staff Brig-Gen Sumlut Gun Maw and Battalion 4 commander Colonel Zau Raw, he added.

It has not been confirmed so far whether the KIO and Burmese delegation have reached an agreement, with Kachin sources saying further talks between the two sides were likely in the event of a stalemate.

The KIO has offered to end ongoing fighting if the government will commence talks for a nationwide ceasefire. But Burmese government authorities did not show any positive signal, according to La Nang, a spokesman for the KIO.

Prior to Burma Army and KIO ceasefire negotiation, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon hailed a meeting between Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi and Burmese Government minister Aung Kyi on 25 July, and urged the Government to consider release of political prisoners, according to a statement issued by a spokesperson, as informed by the UN News Centre.

Releasing all remaining political prisoners is the sole most vital step that authorities in Myanmar (Burma) can take, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also said on 29 July, expressing hope that the Government of the Asian nation will soon take steps towards greater democracy.

In addition, Mr. Ban telephoned earlier Friday with Wunna Maung Lwin, Myanmar's Foreign Minister, just days after he paid tribute to a meeting between a Government minister and Burma's key prominent opposition figure.

In his conversation with Wunna Maung Lwin, Mr. Ban highlighted that he had publicly welcomed the reform measures announced by the new Government, according to his spokesperson.

"He hoped that the Government would now move toward concrete action and take the country forward towards peace, democracy and prosperity."

The Secretary-General also expressed his concern to the Foreign Minister about the ongoing warfare involving some armed groups and the impact of that on civilians, saying the Government must resolve the situation peacefully.

However, the issues of releasing political prisoners and ceasefire with ethnic rebels are still unresolved in the new cabinet as vice-president Tin Aung Myin Oo's faction has been objecting, as said by some observers inside Burma.

According to a source said, President Thein Sein wants Burma Army to withdraw away from the headquarters of the ethnic groups. But, Tin Aung Myint Oo does not agree with Thein Sein. He considers the military maneuver must continue although there are food-shortage problems inside the frontline armed forces. The disagreement between "soft-liner" President Thein Sein and "hardliner" Vice President Tin Aung Myint Oo were considerably inflexible, it seemed the new government could not go further with the two hot issues -- free political prisoners and ceasefire with ethnic rebels.

Eventually, Than Shwe crossed the line and provided resolution, a source said. Thein Sein and Tin Aung Myint Oo have to stay at status quo serving unity of the armed forces. By following Than Shwe's advice, Burma Army has to be maintained unity. The source said it has a document in possession to support his report, According to (S.H.A.N.).

On the other hand, releasing political prisoners and calling peace to armed ethnic groups would provide evidence to the international community that government is really bringing about political change and embracing genuine democratic values.

But, presently, Tin Aung Myin Oo has becoming a barrier on the way to Burma's political restructuring. He became a hard-line vice-president in the new government as the representative of the military bloc. Tin Aung Myint Oo (62) won the Thiha-Thura courage award in fight against Communist rebels in the 1980s. He took charge victorious operations against Communist troops in Eastern Shan State in September 1988, which led to a cease-fire agreement in 1989. He was promoted to secretary-1 when Thein Sein became prime minister in 2007.

In July 2010, Tin Aung Myint Oo traveled to China to meet with Chinese leaders to discuss the issue of ethnic rebels along the Sino-Burma border. As a pro-China, Tin Aung Myin Oo relies too much on China. With China's backing, he believes Burma can neglect Western sanctions and pressures.

Therefore, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon should not think that establishing democratic transformation in Burma is too easy to proceed. In his March report to the UN Human Rights Council, Ojea Quintana said that a pattern of "gross and systematic" human rights violations in Burma had persisted over a period of several years and still continued. He suggested that a specific fact-finding UN Commission of Inquiry to be convened as soon as possible to scrutinize the series of international crimes.
Not only Mr. Ban but also ASEAN leaders should stop reciting rhetorical verses via media, said some observers in the country. At least, they should show their pragmatic supporting towards Quintana's Commission of Inquiry proposal.

It is a dishonor that the UN and ASEAN members look like less committed on protecting poor people of Burma from atrocious international crimes. Overlooking inhumane international crimes in Burma, it will be in vain to expect a true political talk or reform.

Burma needs wide-ranging international pressure for political change, starting free political prisoners plus nationwide ceasefire. http://www.opednews.com/articles/Burma-needs-wide-ranging-i-by-Zin-Linn-110801-533.html
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August 02, 2011 17:18 PM
Myanmar Offers Vast Business, Investment Opportunities

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 2 (Bernama) -- Vast business and investment opportunities await Malaysian entrepreneurs in Myanmar, especially in construction and infrastructure, utilities, consultancy services and property development.

Tan Sri Soong Siew Hoong, executive adviser to the Associated Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Malaysia (ACCCIM), said Myanmar, although a rich country in terms of arable land and natural resources, was one of the least developed in the world.
"Myanmar has a population of 53.99 million and 666,000 sq km land -- doubled the population and area in Malaysia. But it is 30 years behind us," he told a media briefing on Malaysia-Myanmar Innovative Products and Services Expo Investment Seminar and Business Matching here today.

Soong said Myanmar offered business and investment opportunities as it entered a new political era, adding that Malaysian entrepreneurs should venture out as the business environment turned challenging.

"Malaysian businessmen should relocate their operations due to rising manufacturing and labour costs.

"They should look for joint ventures and be innovative to survive in the competitive environment," he said.

He said Malaysian entrepreneurs could provide machinery, food additives as well as packaging to tap the huge opportunities in the food industry due to Myanmar's large population.

Currently, he said, there were about 100 Malaysians in Myanmar, mostly involved in tourism, agriclture, trading, factory and communication services.

The expo will be held in Yangon, Myanmar from Sept 15-18, 2011.

It is jointly organised by ACCCIM, Myanmar Industries Association and Malaysian Business Council in Myanmar.

The expo aims to provide a platform for the business communities of Malaysia and Myanmar to develop a strong, friendly and solid relationship through the official Myanmar associations and Malaysian chambers.

Soong said Malaysia would take up 71 booths at the expo out of the total 147, adding that over 40 booths were already sold to Malaysian entrepreneurs involved in various industries, including construction, food, automotive and education.

-- BERNAMA http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsbusiness.php?id=605547

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Analysis: Pakistan relying too much on China against U.S.

By Chris Allbritton | Reuters – 1 hr 58 mins agotweet17ShareEmailPrintRelated ContentPakistan's Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani and China's Premier Wen Jiabao at the …
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan's quick response to charges by China that militants involved in attacks in Xinjiang had trained on its soil shows the importance of its ties with Beijing, but it could be a mistake for Islamabad if it relies too much on China.

Pakistan immediately dispatched Lieutenant-General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, director general of Pakistan's powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency, to Beijing after Islamic militants mounted a weekend attack that left 11 people dead in the western region of Xinjiang, according to media reports.

While the ISI declined to confirm the trip, Western diplomats and Pakistani analysts agreed that the attacks would likely be at the top of any agenda.

"We cannot allow Pakistani territory to be used for any activities against any neighbor, especially a close ally like China," said Mushahid Hussain Sayed, Chairman of the Pakistan-China Institute.

"There are strong ties between Pakistan and China, and we are cooperating closely on this issue."

Pasha's speedy trip was a clear sign of Pakistan's priorities.

The United States rarely gets that level of cooperation when it presses Pakistan on militants operating in its border regions. American officials for years said al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, killed in a U.S. raid in Pakistan in May, was hiding in the country.

Pakistan often responded with demands for specific, actionable intelligence before it would consider investigating.

Islamabad makes no secret of its preference for China over the United States as a military patron, calling Beijing an "all-weather" ally in contrast to Washington's supposedly fickle friendship.

The Pakistani foreign ministry issued a statement on Monday extending "full support" to China.

China is a major investor in predominantly Muslim Pakistan in areas such as telecommunications, ports and infrastructure. The countries are linked by a Chinese-built road pushed through Pakistan's northern mountains.

Trade with Pakistan is worth almost $9 billion a year for Pakistan, and China is its top arms supplier.

But all that matters only up to a point.

"Pakistan wants to play its own game by creating a front against the United States," said Hasan Askari-Rizvi, an independent political analyst.

"That will not happen. ... Now China has the same complaint which the United States has with Pakistan."

Barry Sautman, a professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said that China, like the United States, wanted Pakistan to help it control Islamist militancy. But it is frustrated by the chaotic nature of Pakistani governance, and its inability to control militants or militant-friendly elements in its security agencies.

"I would think the Chinese government would want to have its military and security apparatus liaise with Pakistani authorities to come up with a common plan, but the U.S. found that very difficult to do," he said. "And I am sure China will find it difficult as well."

Furthermore, Pakistan's usefulness to China is only in South Asia, where it competes with India. But China has global ambitions; it is unlikely to sacrifice them for an ally that has proved a headache to the United States, which has its own deep relationship with China.

"Being seen to take a provocative stand alongside Pakistan comes at a substantial cost, but provides little strategic benefit," Urmila Venugopalan, an independent analyst and former Asia editor at Jane's Intelligence Review, wrote last month in Foreign Policy.

China, he wrote, does not want to push India deeper into the American orbit.

"An escalation in Chinese aid to Pakistan would surely antagonize India, creating a new point of friction in the triangular relationship between Beijing, New Delhi, and Washington."

China has also shown no sign that it is willing to shoulder some of the financial burden of propping up Pakistan that the United States has so far been willing to bear.

In 2008, when Pakistan was suffering a balance of payments crisis and sought China's support to avoid turning to the International Monetary Fund and its restrictive terms on a $7.5 billion loan, China provided only $500 million.

China may share concerns over Pakistan's stability, Venugopalan writes, "but it has preferred to let Americans bear the costs of improving the country's security".

Pakistan's attempts to play China off the United States will ultimately backfire, analysts say. Although important, Pakistan is not the most important issue for Beijing and Washington.

"It is our misunderstanding if we think that we will team up with China if we are pressed by the United States," Rizvi said. "China and the United States have their own relations and they cannot compromise them for the sake of Pakistan."

(Additional reporting by Zeeshan Haider and Qasim Nauman in Islamabad, and Michael Martina in Beijing; Editing by Ron Popeski)

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