News & Articles on Burma-Monday, 06 February 2012-UZL

News & Articles on Burma Monday, 06 February 2012 ---------------------------------------- US scrambles back into Burma in a race for influence China presses Myanmar on stalled dam UN Envoy urges Burma to guarantee basic human rights PaO joining the ceasefire bandwagon "because of the Lady" Myanmar EC permits Suu Kyi to run for elections Aung San Suu Kyi wins official approval to run for key elections in April BURMA: Contemporary politics through ethnic lens Myanmar opening up to tourists UN envoy says Myanmar might allow international observers for key April elections ------------------------------------------------ US scrambles back into Burma in a race for influence February 6, 2012 THE Americans are returning to Burma. Jostling in hotel lifts with Chinese engineers who are here to build pipelines across Burma are new faces: US senators, business leaders and academics. Hotels in the capital Rangoon that were largely empty six months ago are at capacity, as the outside world sees a once-rigid, secretive regime opening up politics and promising an end to economic isolationism and state controls. The decision by opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to contest a byelection in April for the new parliament is taken as a signal it's now OK to deal with a government that has put on civilian clothes following tightly controlled elections in November 2010. Advertisement: Story continues below The release of about 2000 political prisoners has prompted the return of Washington's ambassador and expectation that US trade and financial sanctions will soon be lifted. In the rush are US conservatives, anxious to counter Chinese influence in Burma. Republican John McCain and independent Joe Lieberman were among five US senators who came last month. They were followed by a group called US Executives for National Security, sometimes described as a ''voice of the military-industrial complex''. A ''softer'' anti-sanctions lobby is more concerned with fostering a Burmese middle class, seen as a force for more liberal politics. Among this group is George Soros, who came at the end of December to meet President Thein Sein, the former army general leading Burma's transition, and to set up an office of his Open Society Foundation. A Bill Gates visit is rumoured to be in the offing. ''Washington is actually itching to get back,'' Dr Sean Turnell, an economist at Macquarie University who closely studies Burma, said in Rangoon yesterday. ''They have a very idealistic concept of what Myanmar could be.'' On a recent visit to Washington, Turnell found officials and non-government agencies dusting off old plans and projects for involvement, some dating back to the 1950s when then civilian-ruled Burma was seen as one of Asia's great hopes. The Obama administration's special envoy on Burma, former Pentagon official Derek Mitchell, ''has a lot of credibility on all sides,'' Turnell said. A senior businessman in Rangoon adds that local sentiment sees relations with China and India, the two great Asian powers on either side, as mainly about money. ''The real relationship is with the West, through education and family members living in Western countries.'' The influx from America includes influential Burmese exiles, among them the eminent economist Hla Myint who quit as rector of Rangoon University 50 years ago and left his native land, vowing never to return. A pioneer of the export-led growth model for developing countries, Professor Hla had despaired at how a new military leader, General Ne Win, was turning to economic isolation and state controls, expelling foreign advisers. Hla went on to an eminent career at leading American universities, advising other Asian nations while Burma stagnated to become south-east Asia's basket case. At the end of this week, Hla, now 91, returns to Rangoon, for the first time - a homecoming seen as a symbolic recognition that Burma has finally embarked on fundamental political and economic change after its lost decades. A component of the stampede is lured by commercial, not strategic opportunity. ''We have been inundated with visitors, to the extent we have double or triple appointments, people asking to come and talk about investment,'' says Serge Pun, a Burmese tycoon whose SPA Group is active in real estate, banking, agribusiness and car assembly. ''The low-hanging fruit is, of course, the tourism industry where the need for hotel rooms is very obvious.'' One focus is the tenders now floated by the Myanmar Investment Commission for refurbishment of the grand British colonial buildings - banks and law courts - in the old city centre of Rangoon, which is now subject to a heritage order. Australia has dropped 71 names from its list of military figures and business ''cronies'' targeted for individual sanctions, leaving 392 names. Hamish McDonald is in Burma as guest of Melbourne University's Asialink for a dialogue with Burma and other south-east Asian officials, businessmen, and opinion leaders. Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-scrambles-back-into-burma-in-a-race-for-influence-20120205-1qznl.html#ixzz1lbyI9NnE -------------------------------------------- ASIA TIMES ONLINE: Feb 7, 2012 China presses Myanmar on stalled dam By Melody Kemp One of the first indications that change was afoot in Myanmar came when President Thein Sein announced last year the suspension of the China-backed, US$3.6 billion Myitsone dam slated for the country's remote Kachin state. Now, signs are that the fight is not over as Chinese hydro-power lobbyists go on the offensive to have the mega-project restarted despite extreme environmental risks. A PowerPoint presentation made by a delegate to the recent Mekong Energy and Ecology meeting in Bangkok indicates that China's hydro-power industry is working hard to resurrect the shelved project. The presentation along with other Chinese-language documents indicate that China wants to resurrect the project as a symbol of its still strong clout in Myanmar at a time the United States and European Union bid to make diplomatic and commercial inroads. The Myitsone dam is also apparently viewed by Beijing as a bellwether on Myanmar's stance on other major Chinese investments, including the $17.5 billion oil and gas pipelines designed to transport fuel from Myanmar's southern coast to China's southwestern, land-locked Yunnan province. The Chinese press have reported the pipelines create 50,000 new jobs and yield Yunnan economic returns estimated at 33 billion yuan (US$5.2 billion) in refined products per year. The pipelines will also allow China to avoid sending its energy imports through the congested and, in case of a future conflict with the United States, easily blocked Malacca Straits. The Chinese Hydropower Association, government officials and Chinese media have all accused Myanmar's government of breach of contract and of being in the thrall of foreign, read Western, non-governmental organizations that have campaigned steadily against the mega-project's potential negative environmental and social impacts. Chinese officials have asserted that Myanmar needs China's foreign investment, which currently amounts to over 44% of the country's foreign direct investment, to fuel economic development. However, 90% of the estimated 3,600-6,000 megawatts of electricity that would have been generated by the dam was slated for export to China. Chinese hydropower interests, meanwhile, continue to assert that the environmental impacts of the dam would be minimal. That is the portrait painted by the upstream Ayeyawady Confluence Basin Hydropower Corporation, a local subsidiary of the China Power Investment Corporation, one of China's top five electricity producers, in their latest publication "A Better Tomorrow on the Ayeyawady River." Zhang Boting, deputy secretary general of the Chinese Society for Hydropower Engineering and who writes for the government's mouthpiece People's Daily newspaper, has led the propaganda offensive against Myitsone's suspension. In a recent newspaper column he referred to Thein Sein's safety concerns over the project as "illogical". "Will the natural beauty of Kachin and Myanmar be destroyed by the project? Absolutely NOT - dams and even earthquakes have been proven to create new beautiful scenery. This is the case with [China's] Three River Gorges Dam, which is now more beautiful than before. Don't listen to the extreme statements of environmentalists," he urged Thein Sein in a newspaper column. Striking a more assertive pose, he also recently wrote: "It is impossible that the investor move the hydropower projects out of Myanmar ... If the Myanmar people are at risk, the investment by the investor is at risk as well. The investor and the Myanmar people are both stakeholders in dam construction." "Will the reservoir cause people upstream to lose livelihoods? ... As a World Bank official once learned in China, many people hope that they will be lucky enough to be resettled as a result of a dam project ... as this is a way out of poverty," Zhang's China Society for Hydropower recently said in a statement. "The people who designed the Myitsone are the same that designed the Three River Gorges Dam - for them resolving resettlement issues are very simple. The people living in the [Myitsone] resettlement area now live like people in upscale villas in China," the statement said. World Bank officials could not confirm the anonymous quote attributed to it in Zhang's statement. Nor have those resettled from the Myitsone dam site been resettled into "upscale villas", as he claimed. Photographs and reports received by this correspondent indicate that most of the resettled villagers - estimated by the opposition National League for Democracy to number 12,000 - have been forced off their fertile ancestral lands and lucrative orchards into tiny houses on clay beds incapable of producing basic crops. Dam high risks The environmental risks of Myitsone, meanwhile, are enormous by threatening the flow of the Irrawaddy River, Myanmar's main and most culturally significant waterway. The proposed 152-meter high dam, which if built will create a reservoir the size of Singapore, would be situated between the Yunnan and Sagaing Faults. A recent geological study jointly conducted by Myanmar's Ministry of Transport and Japan's International Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering indicates that a major shift in the Sagaing fault, situated only 100 kilometers west of the dam site, could soon occur and might affect the new capital Naypyidaw. Their analysis and maps showing the fault extending south into the Andaman Sea and north into Kachin State is thought to have influenced Thein Sein's decision on the dam. Independent geologist and blogger Ole Nielsen noted in a blog entry that previous dams built in Myanmar have collapsed and suggested that the Kachin state capital Myitkyina would be wiped out in the event of a Myitsone dam collapse. He added that the Ching Hkrang dam 16 kilometers north of Myitkyina and the agricultural Washawng dam in Wiangmaw district collapsed in 2006 after incessant rains. Experts say a dam as large as Myitsone, in combination with its seismic location, could also trigger earthquakes though so-called reservoir induced seismicity, a geological phenomenon where water in large reservoirs shifts land masses and through infiltration weakens underlying fault lines. There have been over 90 identified incidences of earthquakes triggered by water reservoirs worldwide, including in China's Sichuan province in 2008. Meanwhile, a United States Geological Survey team indicated in a recent report that the Himalayan glaciers, some of which feed the Irrawaddy River, are retreating at an alarming rate. (If so, in a few years the Myitsone dam could become a giant sandpit.) The survey warned that the glacial retreat brings a greater risk of so-called Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, which occur when melt water inside a glacier breaks out with extreme force and sends a tsunami of silt carrying water down stream slamming into dam walls. This has already had devastating effects in nearby Nepal. The controversy over Myitsone runs deeper, however. Myanmar's military junta first proposed the dam's construction in 2006 and three years later contracted the local Asia World Company and China Power Investment Corp (CPI) to build it. Asia World was established by Lo Hsing Han, a Kokang Chinese from the opium-producing region of Myanmar 's Golden Triangle who has been identified by the United States Drug Enforcement Agency for involvement in narcotics trafficking and money laundering. Asia World is now controlled by his son Stephen Law (Tun Myint Naing) and close to Myanmar Vice President Aung Myint Oo who in turn is a close ally of former junta leader Senior General Than Shwe. The now stalled joint venture agreement between the CPI and Asia World involves many powerful interests. The deal enabled CPI to build and operate Myitsone in partnership with Myanmar Electric Power Enterprises and a consortium of Chinese companies, including the China Gezhouba Group Corporation, whose contract is worth $153 million, China Power Investment Corporation Materials and Equipment Company, whose concrete work had been priced at $75 million and the politically connected Sinohydro Corp, which was responsible for road building and civil engineering. Despite those big commercial interests, Thein Sein said he was responding to the "will of the people" in suspending the dam. The decision has raised bilateral tensions, with China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Hong Lei saying in October soon after the announcement that Myanmar must "protect the legal and legitimate rights of Chinese companies". It's unclear if Myanmar has paid any compensation since the mega-project was stalled. CPI president and Communist Party secretary Lu Qizhou said in interviews soon after the September 30 suspension was announced that he was "shocked" by the decision and insisted that his company had followed all legal procedures in winning the contract. The various interested parties in the dam maintain that hundreds of scientists had agreed that the environmental impacts would be minimal despite the size of the reservoir and the biodiversity significance of the dam site. (Some Yangon-based cynics say that this is because Chinese poachers have already cut or mined everything of value around the dam site.) Myanmar has yet to formulate comprehensive laws supporting regulations or even research teams capable of completing the rigorous testing and reporting necessary to properly assess such a massive project. However, it is clear from Thein Sein's "will of the people" statement that his government takes environmental concerns more seriously than the previous ruling military junta. While the dam has been deferred until 2015, coinciding with the end of Thein Sein's term, wrangling over the multi-billion dollar mega-project is expected to animate China-Myanmar relations in the years ahead. Taking into account the cultural significance of the Irrawaddy River and the ongoing conflict in Kachin state, it is possible that Thein Sein's suspension will eventually lead to an outright cancellation. (Already some of the resettled families have returned to their home villages, according to on-the-ground sources.) In a survey published in Myanmar Affairs, a website maintained by Myanmar academics, 58% of respondents surveyed approved of Thein Sein's environmental initiatives. The survey found that 90% of the 1,000 people interviewed opposed the Myitsone dam for environmental, socioeconomic and cultural reasons. While China continues to propagandize that the Myitsone dam is Myanmar's national interest, Myanmar's people and leadership view it differently. Melody Kemp is an environmental journalist currently living in Indonesia. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/NB07Ae01.html ------------------------------------------ UN Envoy urges Burma to guarantee basic human rights By Zin Linn Feb 06, 2012 1:03AM UTC The UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Burma, Tomas Ojea Quintana, released a press statement Sunday at Yangon International Airport, Burma. He concluded his six-day mission to Burma (Myanmar), his fifth visit to the country since he was appointed Special Rapporteur in March 2008. During the mission, he met with the Minister of Home Affairs, the Minister of Defence, the Minister of Border Affairs, the Attorney-General, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and the Union Election Commission, among others. Tomas Ojea Quintana, Burma human rights Tomas Ojea Quintana , U.N. human rights envoy to Burma. Pic: AP. He also met with opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Moreover, he met with members of the recently-established National Human Rights Commission and discussed a range of human rights issues. Additionally, Quintana met with three prisoners of conscience in Insein Prison, as well as with released prisoners of conscience, including members of the 88 Generation Students Group. He also travelled to Karen and Mon States and met with the respective Chief Ministers and representatives of state government, as well as ethnic parties in state parliaments. He concluded his mission receiving a brief talk with the diplomatic community. Quintana underlined many important legislative reforms, including the adoption of the Labour Organizations Law, the Peaceful Demonstration and Gathering Law and the amendment to the Political Party Registration Law. He said that he was also informed about the process of drafting a revised Prisons Act, a new media law -- the Printing Press and Publications Law and new social security law were presently on the move. He expressed his concerns regarding some of the provisions in the newly-adopted legislation, particularly the Peaceful Demonstration and Gathering Law, the Printing Press and Publications Law. Quintana said that he worried about lack of adequate consultation with relevant stakeholders, including civil society, on some of the draft laws being prepared. He said that he received continuing allegations of serious human rights violations committed during ethnic conflicts, including attacks against civilian populations, extrajudicial killings, sexual violence, internal displacement, land confiscations, the use of human shields, the recruitment of child soldiers, as well as forced labour and portering. However, he did not fail to emphasize that he received reports of violations being committed by all parties in the conflict. He added that the upcoming by-elections on April 1 were a key test of the Government's obligation to reforms. According to Quintana, polls must be free, fair, inclusive and transparent. During his meeting with the Union Election Commission, he was said the use of international observers was under consideration. Referring to the 2010 elections, he said problems such as the high cost of registration, the use of advance votes, and the procedures and costs for filing a complaint should be addressed as a matter of priority. Quintana reminded the authorities to respect and guarantee for the freedoms of expression, assembly and association which are basic citizen's rights in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. http://asiancorrespondent.com/75323/un-envoy-warns-burma-to-guarantee-basic-human-rights/ ------------------------------------------- PaO joining the ceasefire bandwagon "because of the Lady" Monday, 06 February 2012 15:48 S.H.A.N. The PaO National Liberation Organization (PNLO) delegation that met U Aung Min, the presidential negotiator, yesterday on the border of Chiangmai, says democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi's decision to work with the new government headed by U Thein Sein had led the way for the group to join the peace process. "We had followed her when she was struggling against the regime's predecessor," said Khun Thurein, deputy leader of the PNLO delegation. "Now we fear if we continue to fight against Naypyitaw, it would be like opposing her." The PNLO was formed in 2007 after a faction of the PaO dominant Shan Nationalities Peoples Liberation Organization (SNPLO), a ceasefire group, had joined the PaO People's Liberation Organization (PPLO), a non-ceasefire group, led by Hkun Okker. The SNPLO's late leader Tarkeley had often referred to Aung San Suu Kyi as A-May (Mother). Yesterday's meeting was aimed at reaching a formal ceasefire agreement in the near future, according to him. Khun Myint Tun, elected representative (1990) and former NLD member, acting as head of the delegation had presented a 10-point position paper, the main points of which are: 1 The PNLO will never secede from the Union and will never agree to a secessionist proposal 2 The PNLO will continue to struggle until equality and right of self determination is achieved 3 There must be no oppression of smaller races by bigger races 4 The PNLO will endeavor to achieve initial ceasefire agreement 5 The PNLO calls for a nationwide ceasefire 6 There must be consultations among ethnic groups, political organizations and between them 7 There must be freedom of gathering and consultation among PaO people 8 The PNLO will cooperate in the fight against drugs 9 NGOs and INGOs must be allowed to operate freely in ethnic areas 10 There must be enhanced media freedom Asked what the PNLO thought about the PaO Self Administered Zone (SAZ) as designated by the 2008 constitution, he replied, "That is just a fiction, not real. Because we don't really have any right to administer our own affairs." The PNLO, a member of the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), says the grouping has allowed each member organization to conclude a ceasefire agreement with Naypyitaw separately. "But when it comes to political dialogue, all of us must work together," he said. http://shanland.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4395:pao-joining-the-ceasefire-bandwagon-because-of-the-lady&catid=85:politics&Itemid=266 ----------------------------------------------- Myanmar EC permits Suu Kyi to run for elections AP: Feb 6, 2012 Yangon (Myanmar): Myanmars Election Commission today gave opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi the green light to run for parliamentary by-elections, another step toward political openness in a country emerging from nearly a half-century of iron-fisted military rule. Suu Kyi announced her intention last month to run in the April elections but was waiting for official approval from the commission, which said it had to scrutinise her eligibility. Myanmar's Election Commission today gave opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi the green light to run for parliamentary by-elections. Getty Images A spokesman for Suu Kyis party said the commission approved her candidacy and would make a formal announcement later today. There is no objection to her nomination and we can say that her candidacy is officially accepted, Nyan Win said. A nominally civilian government took office last March. The new government has surprised even some of the countrys toughest critics by releasing hundreds of political prisoners, signing cease-fire deals with ethnic rebels, increasing media freedoms and easing censorship laws. Myanmars government hopes the rapid changes will prompt the West to lift economic sanctions that were imposed on the country during the military juntas rule. Western governments and the United Nations have said they will review the sanctions only after gauging whether the April polls are carried out freely and fairly. The April election is being held to fill 48 parliamentary seats vacated by lawmakers who were appointed to the Cabinet and other posts. Even if Suu Kyis National League for Democracy party wins all 48 seats, it will have minimal power. The 440-seat lower house of Parliament is heavily weighted with military appointees and allies of the former junta. But a victory would be historic for Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace laureate who spent most of the last two decades under house arrest. She would have a voice in Parliament for the first time after decades as the countrys opposition leader. Her party won a sweeping victory in the 1990 general election but the junta refused to honour the results. Suu Kyi will run for a seat representing Kawhmu, a poor district south of Yangon where villagers livelihoods were devastated by Cyclone Nargis in 2008. AP http://www.firstpost.com/world/myanmar-ec-permits-suu-kyi-to-run-for-elections-204727.html# ------------------------------------------ Myanmars Aung San Suu Kyi wins official approval to run for key elections in April By Associated Press, Updated: Monday, February 6, 12:45 PM YANGON, Myanmar Myanmars Election Commission on Monday gave opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi the green light to run for parliamentary by-elections, another step toward political openness in a country emerging from nearly a half-century of iron-fisted military rule. Suu Kyi announced her intention last month to run in the April elections but was waiting for official approval from the commission, which said it had to scrutinize her eligibility. A spokesman for Suu Kyis party said the commission approved her candidacy and would make a formal announcement later Monday. There is no objection to her nomination and we can say that her candidacy is officially accepted, Nyan Win said. A nominally civilian government took office last March. The new government has surprised even some of the countrys toughest critics by releasing hundreds of political prisoners, signing cease-fire deals with ethnic rebels, increasing media freedoms and easing censorship laws. Myanmars government hopes the rapid changes will prompt the West to lift economic sanctions that were imposed on the country during the military juntas rule. Western governments and the United Nations have said they will review the sanctions only after gauging whether the April polls are carried out freely and fairly. The April election is being held to fill 48 parliamentary seats vacated by lawmakers who were appointed to the Cabinet and other posts. Even if Suu Kyis National League for Democracy party wins all 48 seats, it will have minimal power. The 440-seat lower house of Parliament is heavily weighted with military appointees and allies of the former junta. But a victory would be historic for Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace laureate who spent most of the last two decades under house arrest. She would have a voice in Parliament for the first time after decades as the countrys opposition leader. Her party won a sweeping victory in the 1990 general election but the junta refused to honor the results. Suu Kyi will run for a seat representing Kawhmu, a poor district south of Yangon where villagers livelihoods were devastated by Cyclone Nargis in 2008. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/myanmars-aung-san-suu-kyi-wins-official-approval-to-run-for-key-elections-in-april/2012/02/05/gIQAKkpysQ_story.html ----------------------------------------------- BURMA: Contemporary politics through ethnic lens Monday, 06 February 2012 13:39 By: Sai Wansai Within a year of governing time span, President Thein Sein, military-backed regime has achieved a higher degree of success in wooing the international community to lend increased legitimacy and hope for a better change of the country than all past, successive military regimes in fifty years. "In January, the regime continued to promote the appearance of a reform agenda by pursuing 'peace agreements' with ethnic armed groups. The regime's apparent haste to produce 'initial' agreements appears to be aimed at removing economic sanctions and other barriers to foreign investment. Regime representatives signed agreements with the Shan State Army-South (SSA-S), the Chin National Front (CNF), the Karen National Union (KNU), and the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N). However, the regime failed to reach an agreement with the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO)." The enthusiastic West has already loosened the sanctions to some extent, due to the regime's 13 January release of over 300 political prisoners, including numerous high-profile dissidents. Australia, the EU, and Norway all eased their existing sanctions, while Washington would start the process of exchanging ambassadors. Also, ASEAN Foreign Ministers call for the lifting of economic sanctions against Burma, saying that lifting sanctions would contribute significantly to the country's socio-economic development. With the changing of political stance of Aung San Suu Kyi, leading to the National League for Democracy (NLD) re-registration and decision to enter the by-elections to be held this coming April, and the ceasefire agreements signed with various armed ethnic groups, except for a few still in the process of negotiation, particularly with the Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/KIA), roughly two trends of political approach have emerged, on how political solution or settlement should be worked out. Amendment versus rewriting the 2008 Constitution One is the approach that has pinned its hope on the amendment of the military-supremacy, 2008 Constitution from within, which Suu Kyi's NLD and other Burman and non-Burman political opposition parties within the Parliament are identified with, and the other, the rewriting -- not amending - of the 2008 Constitution, based on the 1947 Panglong Agreement, within the frame of federal system, which the armed ethnic groups and non-Burman ethnic political parties - that have not yet reregistered -- pinned their aspirations, as the sole way out of the ongoing ethnic conflict. On the part of the military-backed Thein Sein government, it has been posturing that a similar Panglong Agreement gathering would be held at the last stage of the peace process in Naypyitaw, according to his close aide U Aung Min, Minister of Railway Transport, when he met the armed ethnic groups last November in Thailand. According to him, President Thein Sein's three steps peace process is: conclusion of ceasefire pacts followed by implementation of development projects in ceasefire areas and the convening of a peace conference in Naypyitaw. However, President Thein Sein himself has never mentioned "Panglong-like Conference" or spelled out with a time frame, to be held officially. A report filed by VOA, on 28 January, regarding the ceasefire talks between the regime and the KNU, in Burmese section writes: "Concerning the armed ethnic issue, U Aung Min explained that he was following the three steps directive of President Thein Sein. First, ceasefire; second, deliberation of development and political progress; and third, comprehensive discussion in the parliament, leading to decision and lawmaking. The Panglong Agreement type conference, demanded by the non-Burman ethnic nationalities could as well be held during the third stage of peace initiative process." Long drawn-out developmental second phase And thus, after the conclusion of ceasefire or truce agreement, the second phase of development and deliberation of political progress would likely be a long, drawn-out process, most likely, at least, until 2015 general elections, from the perspective of Thein Sein government. Having said that, the non-Burman ethnic nationalities are faced with either to go along according to the regime's game plan and eventually get bogged down in the developmental second phase -- like the past ceasefire period from 1989 to 2009 -- or to pressure for a speedy political dialogue, leading to lasting political settlement. In other words, playing along with the regime's drawn-out, delaying tactics will erode the opportunity and political will of the non-Burman ethnic nationalities like in the recent past. The United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) Positon Statement on Peace in the Country, dated 4 December 2011 said that the regime used military might in suppressing some groups, while luring those who signed ceasefire with "regional development" incentive to break their "political equality" struggle in a deceitful way, depriving the country of peace for more than 60 years. On 31 January, SHAN reported that Hkun Okker, Chairman of the PaO National Liberation Organization (PNLO), speaking at the closing ceremony of the 11th batch of the Shan State Social Justice Education Programme training on Sunday, 29 January, pointed out military-backed, Thein Sein government's incompatibility with a multi-ethnic state and as well, the negative effect of the second phase developmental implementation as follows:- The identities of Burma's multi-ethnic peoples hang in the balance as long as the country's latest constitution which is "of the military, by the military, for the military" is not amended or jettisoned. "Read the preamble and you will find the word 'oneness'," he told the 30 students graduating from the school set up by one of Shans' foremost women activists Charm Tong. "It means the regime continues to aim for one nation, one country and one single identity and there is no room for multi-nationalities." He offered the newly adopted national flag as an example. "No country practicing federalism uses a one-star flag, which denotes oneness. But all the authoritarian states like Vietnam and North Korea have one-star flags." "Cosmetic changes by President Thein Sein government have created confusions both at home and abroad. The policy shift by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and her NLD (National League for Democracy) has also added fuel to the flame. As a result some countries are prematurely lifting sanctions and some foreign aid agencies including the ODA (Official Development Assistance) are preparing to re-enter the country." He strongly criticized the ongoing peace talks and agreements emanating from them as a "quick fix" to solve what is primarily a political issue between the Burman government and the non-Burman ethnic peoples. "They are generously offering business opportunities under the name of Development or Special Economic Zones and using them as delaying tactics against meaningful political dialogue," he charged. "This is because they want a quiet rather than peaceful Burma before the 2013 SEA Games, the 2014 Asean Summit and the next round of elections in 2015." "Unitary" versus "Federalism" The central conflict issue or core problem is none other than the incompatible position taken by adversaries between "unitary, presidential" and "federal union" political system. As have been repeatedly spelled out by the broad spectrum of non-Burman ethnic nationalities, their demands for rights of self-determination, equality and democracy are closely intertwined with the federal union setup, like two facets of a coin, which has its roots at the formation of the then new political entity, "Union of Burma" in 1948, made possible by virtue of 1947 Panglong Agreement and 1948 Union Constitution. The present 2008 Constitution and also the 1974 Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) Constitution both unitary system based, intentionally sought to reject the original agreement of federalism, agreed and signed by General Aung San, in 1947, on behalf of the Ministerial Burma or Burma Proper. The reason, although not spoken, seems to direct at changing the concept of nationalism based on multi-ethnic state to individual citizenship, coupled with civil rights by disregarding ethnic diversity. In other words, unitary system is to replace the multi-ethnic state concept and get rid of various ethnic identities, once and for all. This concept might probably find broad acceptance among the Burman majority for its numerical population advantage, and could find their need satisfaction under individual citizenship and civil rights, according to the universally accepted, democratic norms. But in contrast, the non-Burman ethnic nationalities, which see themselves as non-state nations, could hardly give up their ethnic identities and feel secure by just accepting only the individual citizenship and civil rights. To put it differently, the non-Burman ethnic nationalities need guarantee to protect their ethnic, cultural identities and control of natural resources and so on, apart from just the individual citizenship and civil rights. And this is when the federal system of arrangement comes in, to be able to exist as non-state nations and uphold their birthright sovereignty, rights of self-determination and ownership of their own natural resources. The non-Burman ethnic groups have voluntarily joined the Union of Burma, where they were accorded and promised equal rights within the mould of a federal union, and they are not about to be satisfied with downgraded minorities status from equal partners and surrender their sovereign rights handed down to them by their forefathers. Ceasefire and political dialogue Naypyitaw has successfully negotiated ceasefire agreements with 7 armed groups: United Wa State Army (UWSA), National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), Chin National Front (CNF), Karen National Union (KNU) and Shan State Progress Party (SSPP). And recently, another group New Mon State Party (NMSP) has signed a ceasefire pact on 01 February, Wednesday. However, the KNU has denied signing the ceasefire agreement, but said it merely agreed to meet again with the regime in the near future. On 4 February, New York Times writes: "We can't say there's a cease-fire yet," Naw Zipporah Sein, the general secretary of the Karen National Union, said in an interview. "We still need to discuss the conditions." Ms. Sein said the delegation sent to negotiate with the government was not authorized to sign a cease-fire. A document was signed, but all that was agreed upon in January, she said, was that the two sides would "meet again" at the end of February. She declined to release a copy of the agreement. The only ethnic armed group holding out against Thein Sein peace initiative onslaught is the KIO/KIA, and with a sound political logic. It has an experience of 17 years ceasefire agreement, with the promise that political dialogue and settlement would follow. But instead, the 2008 Constitution framer, the SPDC regime, had ignored the Kachin and other non-Burman ethnic groups' proposal of a genuine federal proposal and pushed through the drafting of military-supremacy constitution, constitutional referendum and 2010 nation-wide elections, which were either free, fair, credible or transparent. On top of that, the Border Guard Force (BGF) plan of forceful assimilation of all ethnic armed groups into the Burma Army was implemented, leading to the breakdown of more than decade-long ceasefire agreements. Third party mediator and ethnic conflict Thein Sein government self-help conflict resolution has widened some political space but is still a long way from being comprehensive and fair, especially where the issue of ethnic conflict is concerned. SHAN report on 04 February said that when Hkun Tun Oo was asked whether he thought a new peacemaking team made up of a third party would be desirable, Hkun Tun Oo, leader of the 1990 elections winning party in Shan State, Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), gave his answer in the affirmative. "It must be formed with persons whom people can trust to restore peace in our lifetime," he was quoted as saying. "But, the way things are shaping up right now, I fear the process might last at least another generation." Hkun Tun Oo, together with other prominent activists, was released on 13 January, a day after amnesty was announced by Naypyitaw. But he didn't spell out with whom the third party mediator team should be made up of. An ideal third party, whom the non-Burman ethnic groups have always wanted, would be the UN authorized mediating team, involving ASEAN, EU and the US. After all, the UN has been, for years, endorsing a "tripartite dialogue" between the military, Aung San Suu Kyi led NLD and the non-Burman ethnic groups to resolve the decades old conflict. Broad-based coalition among non-Burmans? And as such, it will be wise to strive for collective bargaining, by forming a broad-based coalition among non-Burman ethnic groups and push for a speedy political dialogue, aimed at achieving a just political settlement. The non-Burman ethnic groups had shown that they were united, when it comes to common issues already twice; in the Panglong Conference (1947) and Taunggyi Seminar (1961), out of which emerged the following 5 point call: + Burma Proper must be a constituent state like Chin, Kachin, Shan and others + Equal power to the two Houses of Parliament + Equal representation for each state in the Upper House + Reservation of the following subjects for the Union government and the remaining subjects for the states: Foreign affairs, Defense, Finance, Coinage and paper currency, Posts and Telegraphs, Railways, Airways and Waterways, Union Judiciary and Sea Customs Duty + Fair distribution of the revenue collected by the Union Government among the state (Source: SHAN -- 28.11.2011) If the non-Burman ethnic groups were able to do it twice before, there is no reason not to be able to revive it again this time again. There are such broad-based organizations like United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), Ethnic Nationalities Council (ENC), United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) and United Nationalities League for Democracy (UNLD) already; and with a little more effort and determination, they could form a formidable, collective force to strive for their rights. With many of the UNFC ethnic armed group members on ceasefire terms with Naypyitaw, the possibility to call for the formation of such broad-based coalition is even more possible than ever. Just imagine how the coming together of ethnic armed groups and ethnic political parties could achieve collectively. The Thein Sein regime, under the banner of Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP) is a top-dog, controlling 90 percent or so vote within the Parliament, coupled with undisputed military backing; and Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the NLD is a formidable opposition, with the backing of Burman majority, even if it is not clear how she could push through any constitutional amendment with merely 2.5 percent of the vote, if she wins the 40 or so seats in the forthcoming April by-elections. However, both are Burman political parties and well organised, in contrast to the non-Burman ethnic groups, which still need to organise themselves in a more effective form, to be able to bargain on equal basis, if ever the long sought out "tripartite dialogue" is to take place. But one thing is sure, the non-Burman ethnic groups cannot afford to accommodate the Thein Sein's developmental, drawn-out, second phase plan and the need for speedy political bargaining is crucial, if they want to restore their ethnic identities and rights of self-determination. In other words, there is a choice to be made; either to eventually give up the struggle by staying aloof and let the regime's delaying tactics overwhelm and destroy their aspirations or strive in unison to realise the common goal of federalism, democracy and equality. It is high time for the non-Burman ethnic nationalities to be more proactive, get organised and push for the restoration of their birthright sovereignty, coercively taken away from them. The contributor is the General Secretary of Shan Democratic Union (SDU) - Editor http://shanland.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4394:burma-contemporary-politics-through-ethnic-lens-&catid=115:opinions&Itemid=308 ------------------------------------------------ Myanmar opening up to tourists By Anasuya Sanyal, Channel NewsAsia's IndoChina bureau chief | Posted: 06 February 2012 1851 hrs BANGKOK: Myanmar looks poised to become the newest hot spot for travellers to Southeast Asia, after decades of isolation. But amid optimism at the recent changes in the country, there are concerns that existing infrastructure may prove inadequate. Jetting around the country in a private six-seater plane may sound a bit strange, but it is now for one's taking. This luxury 3-night-4-day tour through Myanmar emphasises the cultural heritage of the nation - its unspoiled landscapes and ancient temples. A little under US$6,000 per person for a group of six, the tour package comes at a time when the country is opening itself up politically and economically. Willem Niemeijer, CEO of Khiri Travel, said: "There are enormous changes in Myanmar right now. The perception of Myanmar right now... is that you are able to visit Myanmar freely - a lot of difference from when Myanmar was a repressive... and not a free country." Despite the changes, there is concern about a luxury tour to one of the world's least developed countries and one with 30 percent of its 60 million people under the poverty line. Last year, Myanmar has just 400,000 tourism arrivals, in contrast to neighbouring Thailand's 17 million. Industry watchers see enormous potential in the tourism sector, but also potential issues. There are not enough domestic flight connections, nor enough hotel rooms and trained staff. Another worry is that growing too fast too soon will have negative social and environmental effects. Kyi Kyi Aye, tourism consultant to the Myanmar government, said: "We must develop tourism in a fruitful... manner, which is responsible not for only people who are coming into the country but also the people who are hosting and providing services to tourists." But for now, glimpses of what Myanmar has to offer - from snow-capped mountains to tropical beaches - could be the next big tourist draw. - CNA/al http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/southeastasia/view/1181283/1/.html ------------------------------------------- UN envoy says Myanmar might allow international observers for key April elections By Associated Press, Published: February 5 YANGON, Myanmar A U.N. human rights envoy said Sunday that Myanmar is considering letting foreign observers monitor April elections that are viewed as crucial for gauging the nations much-heralded democratic reforms. The envoy, Tomas Ojea Quintana, praised the continuing wave of reforms in Myanmar, the speed and breadth of which has surprised Myanmar watchers around the world. Quintana ended a six-day visit to the country on Sunday. .After nearly half a century of iron-fisted military rule in Myanmar, a nominally civilian government took office last March. The new government has surprised even some of the countrys toughest critics by releasing hundreds of political prisoners, signing cease-fire deals with ethnic rebels, increasing media freedoms and easing censorship laws. My mission confirmed that a positive impact has been made, Quintana said. However, serious challenges remain and must be addressed. There is also a risk of backtracking on the progress achieved thus far. During his trip, Quintana met with senior government ministers, political prisoners and Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, the longtime political prisoner whose bid for a parliamentary seat has drawn intense international interest. He called the upcoming polls a key test of the governments commitment to reforms. I must stress that the credibility of the elections will not be determined solely on the day of the vote, but on the basis of the entire process leading up to and following election day, Quintana said. He said that in talks with Myanmars Election Commission, I was informed that the use of international observers was under consideration. Allowing outside monitors would be a major step for the long-isolated country, where international bids to send observers were rejected in 2010 and 1990, the last two elections. A string of visiting American officials has also singled out the April polls as a measure of whether the West will lift sanctions that were imposed on Myanmar during the military juntas rule. Quintana cited a number of human rights concerns, noting that authorities continue to detain an unknown number of political prisoners. He urged the government to allow an investigation to determine how many remain behind bars. The April election is being held to fill 48 parliamentary seats vacated by lawmakers who were appointed to the Cabinet and other posts. Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/un-envoy-says-myanmar-might-allow-international-observers-for-april-elections/2012/02/05/gIQABnUgrQ_story.html

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