http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/05/opinion/05kristof.html?_r=1
http://kristof.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/04/the-national-prison-of-burma/?apage=1
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
Published: February 4, 2009
MYAWADDY, Myanmar
Before entering Myanmar from Thailand, you scrub your bags of any hint that you might be engaged in some pernicious evil, such as espionage, journalism or promotion of human rights.
Then you exit from the Thai town of Mae Sot and walk across the gleaming white “friendship bridge” to the Burmese immigration post on the other side. Entering Myanmar (which traditionally has been known as Burma), you adjust your watch: Myanmar is 30 minutes ahead — and 50 years behind.
Already Myanmar’s government is one of the most brutal in the world, and in recent months it has become even more repressive.
A blogger, Nay Phone Latt, was sentenced to 20 years in prison. A prominent comedian, Zarganar, was sentenced to 59 years. A former student leader, Min Ko Naing, a survivor of years of torture and solitary confinement, has received terms of 65 years so far and faces additional sentences that may reach a total of 150 years.
“Politically, things are definitely getting worse,” said David Mathieson, an expert on Myanmar for Human Rights Watch living on the Thai-Burmese border. “They’ve just sent hundreds of people who should be agents of change to long prison terms.”
A new American presidency is a useful moment to review policy toward Myanmar, and the truth is that the West’s approach has failed. The Burmese junta has ruled despotically since 1988, ignoring democratic elections. Since then, sanctions have had zero effect in moderating the regime.
I have vast respect for Aung San Suu Kyi, the extraordinary woman who won a Nobel Peace Prize for standing up to the country’s thugs. But the best use of her courage right now would be to accept that the trade sanctions she advocated have accomplished nothing more than further impoverishing her own people. As with Cuba and North Korea, isolating a venal regime usually just hurts the innocent and helps the thugs stay in power.
Instead, the best bet is financial sanctions that specifically target individuals close to the regime — and, even more, a clampdown on Myanmar’s imports of arms.
“It would be very difficult to get an arms embargo through the Security Council, but that’s something that really goes to the heart of any military regime,” Mr. Mathieson said. “You lock them out of the tools of their own self-aggrandizement and repression.”
President George W. Bush tried to help Burmese dissidents, but he had zero international capital. The Obama administration, in contrast, has a chance to lead an international initiative to curb Burmese arms imports and bring the regime to the negotiating table.
Myanmar’s weapons have come from or through China, Russia, Ukraine, Israel and Singapore, and Russia is even selling Myanmar’s dictators a nuclear reactor, Mr. Mathieson said.
In crossing from Thailand to Myanmar, you pass through a time warp. You leave the bustle and dynamism of Thailand and encounter a stagnating backwater of antique cars and shacks beside open sewers.
I found it difficult to interview people in Myanmar, because I was traveling as a tourist with two of my kids (and my wife is sick of me getting our kids arrested with me in dictatorships). But we dropped in on the Myawaddy hospital, which was so understaffed that no one stopped us as we marched through wards of neglected patients.
The most flourishing business we saw on the Burmese side belonged to a snake charmer who set up temporary shop outside a temple. The moment a crowd gathered, an armed soldier ran over in alarm — and then relaxed when he saw that the only threat to public order was a cobra.
In Mae Sot, Thailand, I visited with former Burmese political prisoners, like the courageous Bo Kyi. They are at risk of being killed by Burmese government assassins, yet they are campaigning aggressively for change.
Equally inspiring are the Free Burma Rangers, who risk their lives to sneak deep into the country for months at a time to provide medical care and document human rights abuses.
One gutsy American working with the group, who asked that his name not be used for security reasons, communicated with me by satellite phone from his hiding place deep inside Myanmar. He knows that the Burmese government will kill him if it catches him, yet he stays to gather photos and other evidence of how Burmese soldiers are drafting ethnic Karen villagers for forced labor and are raping women and girls. One recent case described by the Free Burma Rangers involved a 7-year-old girl who was raped, and then killed.
The courage of these people seeking a new Myanmar is infectious and inspiring. In this new administration, let’s help them — and see if with new approaches we can finally topple one of the most odious regimes in the world.
・/p>
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More Articles in Opinion » A version of this article appeared in print on February 5, 2009, on page A31 of the New York edition. Past Coverage
THE WORLD; Aftermath Of a Revolt: Myanmar's Lost Year (October 5, 2008)
Exiles Try to Rekindle Hopes for Change in Myanmar (August 6, 2008)
WORLD BRIEFING | ASIA; Myanmar: Sanctions On 3 Companies (May 2, 2008)
U.S. Imposes More Sanctions To Press Myanmar's Rulers (February 6, 2008)
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February 4, 2009, 10:33 pm
The national prison of Burma
By Nicholas Kristof
My Thursday column is from Myanmar, one of the nastier countries left in the world today. I was only able to get into Myawaddy, a town right next to Mae Sot, Thailand, and interviews are difficult because of the repression, so I can’t claim any comprehensive view of what’s going on there — but it was nice to get a glimpse and to bring back this video.
I’m sure plenty of readers who follow Burma are going to be horrified by my opposition to general sanctions, such as those on the garment industry. My feeling is that those have just made life worse for ordinary citizens, and that isolation simply strengthens the regime. Instead, I’d like to see targeted financial sanctions on people close to the leadership — and, especially, a big push to curb arms sales to Burma, and to embarrass those who do sell weapons to the Burmese regime.
So what do you think? Do you agree that general sanctions have failed and that it’s time for a new approach? Do you see any other way of undermining the Burmese regime? Any suggestions for the Obama administration on Burma? Please post your comments on the column or video here beside the column itself; since they are open there, I’m closing comments here.
UPDATE: Comments have been closed by the column, so I’m reopening them here.
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6 Comments
1. February 5, 2009
4:10 pm
Link
Dear Mr. Kristof,
Thanks for putting “Myanmar” in the news, though like many commenters on the column I too believe you (and the Times as a whole) should certainly refer to “Burma” instead. Much has already been said, but I want to highlight three things.
First, targeted sanctions are a good idea, but they’re not a new idea. In fact, they are already in place, and they have already been renewed. Ample demonstration of this fact is a google search away. Second, your support for an arms embargo, as you mention in your column, is currently untenable in the UNSC. It would be a worthy goal, but as a suggested replacement for sanctions, as you suggest it can currently be, is by your own logic not supported.
Third, sanctions discourse vis-a-vis Burma suffers for many reasons, some of which (like poor comparisons to other countries) you exemplify in your column. I would point to Jared Genser’s comment as laying down a good context for re-thinking your stance on sanctions in Burma. But I still believe - and perhaps you recall me making this point when we met for the Rhodes selection process - that the most significant reason to continue support for sanctions may be the strategic imperative of maintaining solidarity with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s in-country opposition. Breaking with her leadership - ostensibly for a form of economic engagement we currently have no reason to believe will work - is extremely poor judgement for would-be international allies. It is entirely the wrong message to send to those in the country, to those for whom political transformation is more than a sporadic topic of journalistic tourism. The problems in Burma, finally, are political. They have been and remain as such. They are not exclusive of economic considerations, but they are very much the root of what we find in Burma today. To echo another commenter, sanctions, especially the targeted sanctions currently in place, are not the cause of Burma’s problems. Than Shwe’s dictatorship is.
Nevertheless, I’m glad to see you made it to Mae Sot - the erstwhile, current, and future home of several commenters on the column. I hope Bo Kyi gave you a good introduction to the AAPP facilities. I also hope that next time you’re in Mae Sot, you do activists like Bo Kyi the favor of listening closely, of learning to understand the dynamics of Burma’s opposition movement. Your long-held and inflexible anti-sanctions rhetoric needs serious revision.
— Geoffrey Aung
2. February 5, 2009
7:10 pm
Link
Dear Mr. Kristof,
I’ve been studying and visiting Burma since the mid 80’s and for the last 7 years and have been working in Thailand and have also worked in Burma during this time. I have concluded that the policy of sanctions must change.
Sanctions can only work in a carrot and stick scenario. Here the stick has no power and for the generals the carrots have never been clear.
The sanctions against Burma might have made sense if this was a country whose rulers had an interest in increased relations with the outside world or had a fear of being isolated. However, since 1962, Burma has had a policy of self imposed international isolation.
In 1962 when the military took over there were military led governments all over Asia, who were often no less repressive than the Burmese government. So, why have neighbors such as Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea been able to develop into the economically developed democracies they are today while the Burmese people suffer in squalid, repressive third world conditions?
A quick and simple answer might be to think where the people of China might have been today if the reaction to the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown had been international isolation and sanctions. Go back further to the Nixon visit that is credited with opening up China. This was when China was under Moa, acknowledged to be one of the greatest monsters in modern history.
The net effect of the international policy of isolation has been zero as to the stated goal of changing the government and it has been economically devastating for the citizens of Burma.
Now with the recent (late 90’s) discoveries of huge gas fields, revenues are only increasing for those in power as their neighbors (notably China and Thailand) are only too happy to be customers. The stick (sanctions), simply has little meaning to the generals.
If China and other neighbors (notably, India and Thailand) seriously joined the boycott and worked hard to force the military to give up power the goal of the sanctions could possibly have a chance. But the reality is that China and others will never adapt this strategy and I feel we are kidding ourselves, thinking we are having any real impact other than contributing to the suffering.
There is no easy, perfect answer that will solve the problem, but if we really care about peace and prosperity (without war and suffering) for a population, I believe it’s time to seriously re-think the situation. The present path hasn’t worked, it’s time to change course.
Kevin McGivern (US citizen)
— Kevin McGivern
3. February 5, 2009
7:19 pm
Link
I have visited Burma briefly on a few occasions and I believe that the more contact there is with people from outside the country the better. The Burmese people are isolated and lack human contact and perspective from people outside their country. By all means, keep out big business, oil companies, arms suppliers, governmental advisors, but at a basic human level let people get to know each other. The more tourists, travelers, students, journalists the better, I say.
— Derek Davies
4. February 5, 2009
8:08 pm
Link
Nicholas, there is always The Marines and nation building.
Same for the repressed countries of Africa. Today I listened to an interview on NPR, of a woman who had been an NPR correspondent covering Afghanistan. She now spends two weeks a month there doing humane work. She spoke about how the appointed officials had become corrupted. Well, I say became corrupted. They were corrupt before the became “officials”. She told of people having to stop at a checkpoint every mile or so and pay some cop in order to move on. She told of people so disgusted with their own officials and police that they said if they knew of a Taliban ambush waiting for the police they wouldn’t warn the police. They hate them so much.
My point here is that some countries may never be able of handling self government because power seems always to go to those who seize it and consolidate it for their own use. We send troops and billions of dollars and when we leave - or as in Afghanistan while we are still there corruption and oppression flourish and the common folk are no better off. See Haiti.
There are too many evil, corrupt people in too many countries for us to go knock off. They would just be replaced by the next guy in line. Economic sanctions don’t work, as you said because the corrupt leaders will always get what they need while children starve and people are dragged off in the night never to be seen again.
The rest of the so called free world is happy to sit on their hands and let us do the dirty work. France and Russia even seem to profit and enjoy feeding and catering to tyrants. Perhaps France long ago came to the realization that tyrants exist, just like evil, everywhere, and aren’t ever going away so just take their money, provide goods and arms to them and realize that what you sell is benign when it leaves your hands. It becomes evil when used for evil.
Derivatives, sub-prime mortgages, enormous bonuses to Wall Street big wigs and corporate CEO’s, Bernie Madoff, the cops getting paid off on the beat, human trafficing through our porous borders, drug trafficing through our porous borders. political appointees not paying taxes and yet getting the job. U.S. Presidents who lie under oath! And dance away to make millions after they leave office. Then there is W. Liberals want to put him in jail for life but your own Charles Rangel is as big a crook as they come. Tom Daschel!
Nicholas, if left to their own devices people such as I just mentioned and the wealthy out in the Hamptons, down in Palm Beach, over in Malibu would all be no better than the despots who run places like Myanmar or Afghanistan. Let the rest of us eat cake.
John Summers
Jacksonville, Florida
— John
5. February 5, 2009
8:17 pm
Link
I visited Mae Sot and crossed into Burma in late January 2009.
My perspective on economic sanctions (rubies and jade) are that they only drive the trade underground - hurting legitimate Thai importers and traders more than anyone else. And, sadly it didn’t help that this policy came from Mr. Bush who had a really low respect level in Thailand already.
In the end it seems that change in Burma will only come from within Burma - and people will probably have to die to get it done.
— Tom of Maine
6. February 5, 2009
10:32 pm
Link
Friday, February 6, 2009
The national prison of Burma-Sneaking In Where Thugs Rule
UN Envoy Leaves Burma Empty-handed
http://asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1707&Itemid=168
Page 1 of 2
As expected, Burma's junta ignores the world
Burma's military regime is clearly in no mood to compromise with the United Nations or the international community. Several ministers politely received the UN special envoy for Burma, Ibrahim Gambari earlier this week, but used the opportunity to tell the world is was no room for international mediation in Burma's political reform process.
The junta told Gambari candidly that if he really wanted to help the country then he should get sanctions lifted. No sooner had he left the country than the regime issued its biggest snub. The top military ruler, Than Shwe – who continues to refuse to see Gambari – sacked the deputy foreign minister, Kyaw Thu, who had effectively been the interface with the outside world, especially the UN and international donors in their relief and reconstruction efforts in the Irrawaddy Delta after Cyclone Nargis, which devastated the area last May.
This is likely to be the end of the road for Gambari after he left Rangoon empty-handed, having failed to meet any senior member of the junta. The Nigerian diplomat had hoped to revive the UN's efforts to broker talks between the detained pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and senior members of the military regime. But his efforts seem to have completely floundered, leaving the UN to mull over its few remaining options – a possible visit by the Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in the near future.
"The prognosis is very bleak," the Chiang Mai-based Burmese academic, Win Min told Asia Sentinel. "Mr Gambari listened to both sides, but he had no opportunity to be a channel of communication or exchange of views between the two sides. He was a megaphone through which both sides shouted at each other."
Altnhough Gambari was unable to meet Than Shwe, he did hold talks with General Thein Sein, the Burmese prime minister, who is essentially a symbolic figure who simply mouths the message from the top.
"If the UN wants to see economic development and political stability in Myanmar, the UN should first try to remove economic sanctions and visa bans," the prime minister told Gambari, according to state television. Thein Sein reportedly said economic sanctions amount to human rights violations, affecting health, economic and social conditions in the country.
The only success the envoy can point to on this trip is the fact that he did meet Aung San Suu Kyi – still under house arrest in Rangoon, where she has been for more than 13 of the past 20 years. The meeting though took place in the State Guesthouse, along with several senior members of her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD) so was not conducive to a frank exchange of views or discussion.
On Gambari's previous visit last August Aung San Suu Kyi refused to see the envoy, although she had met him on all his five previous trips. "She obviously wanted to send a message to the international community this time, as well as the generals, who would have video-taped all the proceedings," a Western diplomat based in Rangoon told Asia Sentinel.
The Nobel Laureate and the other NLD leaders reiterated the party's stance: for a political solution in Burma, all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi should be released, there must be a genuine political dialogue between the ruling junta and the opposition, the election results of 1990 – which the NLD won convincingly but was never allowed to form a government – must be recognized and the formation of a committee to review the constitution, which was ratified by a referendum last May – though political activists and most diplomats in Rangoon have dismissed it as a sham.
"During our meeting with Mr Gambari, the NLD made a stand and he listened carefully to what we said," the party spokesman, Nyan Win told Asia Sentinel. "However, we have not received a response to our demands. So far, we cannot see any developments from this trip," he added.
For his part, the UN envoy went with limited expectations and goals, according to UN sources.
Page 2 of 2
"His objectives have remained largely the same for some time," said a western diplomat based in Rangoon. These are the release of all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, the start of a dialogue between the regime and Aung San Suu Kyi, the creation of a National Economic Forum to help eliminate poverty and boost development, and the establishment of a liaison office in Rangoon to support the UN's role in helping the political process.
But political prisoners are not likely to be released any time soon, especially Aung San Suu Kyi, who is expected to remain under house arrest until at least the planned elections are held sometime next year. If anything the regime is even more intent on jailing anyone who dares criticize the government or might try to mobilize opposition to the pro-regime parties in the forthcoming elections.
According to the UK-based human rights group, Amnesty International, the number of political prisoners has doubled since the crackdown on the Buddhist monk-led demonstrations in September 2007 to more than 2000. Suu Kyi also used the meeting with Gambari to draw attention to this, and in particular the draconian 65-year sentences given to more than a score of student leaders from the 1988 pro-democracy movement, for their alleged involvement in the mass anti-prices protests in 2007.
"There is no chance of the miltary rulers talking to the NLD, let alone the Lady [Aung San Suu Kyi]," a Burmese businessman with very close ties to some of the top generals told Asia Sentinel. "They don't need her or her party; and if they continue to refuse to field candidates in the election the old man [Than Shwe] will be more than pleased," he added.
What appears to be the case now is that both parties have become even more hardline and intransigent, according to some diplomats in Rangoon. Though Suu Kyi again stressed her willingness to enter a dialogue with the regime, and that if there were genuine talks everything was on the table. The regime remained totally unmoved. "A dialogue will be practical and successful only if the discussions are based on the reality of prevailing conditions," the Information Minister, Brigadier General Kyaw Hsan said in a statement published in state media the day after Gambari left Burma. "There will be no success if it is based on unrealistic conditions."
On the other two issues Gambari pushed, there is room for some concessions, according to diplomats based in Rangoon and UN officials. The government recently formed an eight-member economic committee under the deputy finance minister to monitor the impact of the international economic crisis and credit crunch on the Burmese economy and suggest measures to cope with the problems.
While there are government people and independent economists in the group, there are no members associated with the NLD. "Conceivably this could be presented as the regime's attempt at setting up a national economic forum, as suggested by Gambari," a UN official told Asia Sentinel. The envoy has been pushing the junta to establish a liaison office in Burma for some time now. "It's a work in progress," Gambari told Asia Sentinel more than a year ago. It is possible that the envoy has been give some firm commitments on this, but is waiting to brief the Secretary General before giving any details – as this may be the only concrete measure to come of his current visit.
But in the end the envoy has failed to pull a rabbit out of the hat. Few analysts or diplomats believe Gambari should be blamed for this. The regime has its roadmap and is sticking to it no matter what. They do not want international mediation or support. The fact that the deputy foreign minister has been sacked, though he remains the chairman of the tripartite core group which is overseeing the international relief and rehabilitation efforts – a joint effort involving ASEAN, the UN and the Burmese government – is a ominous message to the international community, according to both Asian and Western diplomats dealing with Burma.
"In the end there is only one thing the regime wants from the UN, and that's legitimacy, legitimacy and legitimacy," a respected Burmese source told Asia Sentinel. So Gambari is pushing against a brick wall if he hopes to secure any concessions at all from the junta, he added.
Opposition Welcomes Ban’s Call for Burma Talks -IRRAWADDY
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=15072
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By WAI MOE Friday, February 6, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Burma’s opposition welcomed United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s call to resume substantive talks between the Burmese military junta and the political opposition for national reconciliation.
Nyan Win, a spokesperson of the National League for Democracy (NLD), told The Irrawaddy on Friday that the party appreciated Ban’s urgency, but he said, “This kind of statement is usual for the UN.”.
Direct talks between the regime and the opposition are needed, he said, if a solution is to be found for the country’s political deadlock.
The NLD spokesperson’s comment came following Ban Ki-moon’s statement on Thursday, following a briefing by the UN Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari.
“The Secretary-General looks forward to building on this visit with a view to further promoting national dialogue and reconciliation through his good offices,” said the secretary general's spokesperson, Michele Montas.
“The Secretary-General calls on the government and opposition to resume substantive dialogue without preconditions and without further delay.”
The statement was almost verbatim similar statements repeatedly issued by the secretary-general and other UN spokespeople during the past year.
Aye Thar Aung, an Arakan leader and secretary of an umbrella opposition group, the Committee Representing the People’s Parliament, said he was glad the UN repeated its call to hold meaningful dialogue talks.
“Genuine dialogue is the best way to resolve Burma’s political crisis,” he said.
However, Aye Thar Aung said realistically the chance of a meaningful dialogue is still impossible because of the current political environment in the country, exacerbated by scores of arrests of political activists and harsh prison sentences during the past few months.
“The military junta does not listen and respect the UN,” he said. “They just use the UN to buy time. They do not have the political will to hold a dialogue with the opposition.”
He said that if the junta failed to hold talks with the opposition, the UN secretary-general should push to take up the Burma issue in the UN Security Council.
On Thursday, in India’s capital, New Delhi, where Ban attended a sustainable development summit, UN Special Envoy to Burma Ibrahim Gambari briefed Ban Ki-moon on his recent seventh trip to Burma, which produced no meaningful results.
Meanwhile, India’s vice president, Shri M. Hamid Ansari, is visiting Burma for a four-day trip. The Indian delegation was welcomed by the junta’s No 2, Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye, according to the state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper.
On the vice president’s arrival, Burma and India signed three agreements in Naypyidaw involving bilateral investments and exchange notes; the opening of an English-language training center at the Indian Embassy in Rangoon; and the creation of an industrial training center in Pakkokku Township in central Burma.
Correspondent Lalit K Jha contributed reporting from Washington D.C.
India should advocate for democracy in Burma
http://www.newstrackindia.com/newsdetails/66187
New Delhi, Fri, 06 Feb 2009 Nava Thakuria
While the Indian vice-president has left for Burma (Myanmar) with a four-day official visit to the military-ruled country, the civil society groups of India have come forward for the cause of democracy in the Southeast Asian country.
A memorandum has been prepared for submission to the Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh on Saturday, where it is observed that India being the largest democracy 'needs to look beyond' the bilateral relations and 'bring in the values of peace, justice and human rights in Burma'.
Mentionable that the vice-president M. Hamid Ansari had arrived in Rangoon, the former capital of Burma on February 5 with a delegation representing Indian diplomats and businessmen. The first Indian high-level official to visit Burma in 2009, Hamid Ansari had already gone for wide range of discussion with his counterpart Senior General Maung Aye in the context of increasing engagement between two neighbouring countries.
Various Indian civil society groups welcome the goodwill trip of Hamid Ansari to Burma in the perspective of the long standing historic and cultural relationship between the two countries. The role of India in promoting and restoring peace, harmony, fraternity and stability in the region is also appreciated by the groups in the memorandum.
"We are aware that Burma is one of India's critical strategic partner and biggest neighbour which shares 1650 kms border. And we appreciate the present relations of the two governments which have reached to the utmost level since a Treaty of Friendship was signed in 1951," said in the memorandum.
New Delhi's decision to promote Burmese people's capacity, knowledge, and experience and technology know-how by signing series of bilateral MoUs was meant for the development of bilateral and regional relations, it added. Forwarded by Burma Centre Delhi, the memorandum is supposed to be submitted to the President and the External Affairs minister of India too.
Meanwhile, in an official statement during a banquet hosted by the Burmese Vice Senior General Maung Aye in Rangoon on February 5, Hamid Ansari had declared that the economic engagement between the two countries had expanded to embrace both the public and private sectors. Several positive developments had taken place recently in the areas of trade, investment, power, oil and natural gas, manufacturing, IT and the vocational training sectors, he added.
The memorandum stated that the people of India feel disturbed that New Delhi 'being the world's largest democracy and a country that continually believes in the virtue of ethics, democracy, equality and human rights' had ignored its initiative 'to promote its own ideologies to the Burmese people' who had been desperately yearning for their goal for more than two decades.
The memorandum concluded urging New Delhi 'to bring in Indian humanism and democracy system to the people of Burma and assist them in their struggle for restoration of peace, human rights and democracy. It also appealed the union government to review the foreign policy in favour of peaceful transition of Burma in to a democratic state.
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Fw: [burmainfo] 今週のビルマのニュース（0905号）ガンバリ氏がビルマを訪問、ほか
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ビルマ市民フォーラム メールマガジン 2009/2/6
People's Forum on Burma
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ビルマ情報ネットワーク（BurmaInfo）からのメールを転送させていただき
ます。
（重複の際は何卒ご容赦ください。）
ＰＦＢ事務局
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ビルマ情報ネットワークの「今週のビルマのニュース」をお送りします。
「今週のビルマのニュース」バックナンバー
http://www.burmainfo.org/weekly.html
きょうのビルマのニュース（平日毎日更新）もご利用ください。
http://d.hatena.ne.jp/burmainfo/
ビルマ情報ネットワーク （www.burmainfo.org）
秋元由紀
========================================
今週のビルマのニュース Eメール版
2009年2月6日号【0905号】
========================================
【今週の主なニュース】
ガンバリ氏がビルマを訪問
・国連のガンバリ事務総長特別顧問が31日から3日まで
ビルマを訪問した。特使として7度目の訪問。2日にアウン
サンスーチー氏と、氏が書記長を務める国民民主連盟（NLD）
の幹部らと会談した。会談でスーチー氏は「すべての政治囚が
解放されるまで、国連事務総長は訪問するべきではない」と
ガンバリ特使に伝えた（2日付BBCニュース）。
特使は軍政トップ・タンシュエ将軍とは会えず、テインセイン
首相と会った。国営テレビによれば首相は特使に「（ビルマで
の）政治的安定や経済発展を望むなら国連は経済制裁やビザ
発給禁止措置を取り消す努力をするべきだ」と伝えた（3日付AP）。
・軍政は政治活動家の代理人弁護士6人に逮捕状を出した。
このほか、民主化運動家の代理人を務めた弁護士3人が
既に投獄されている（2日付DVB）。
政治囚の数は現在2100人を超える。
【その他】
ロヒンギャ難民問題ほか
・イギリスのラメル外務閣外相は英議会議員からの
質問に書面で回答し、ビルマ軍政が2010年に計画して
いる総選挙を強く非難し、「文民統制に見せかけて実は
軍政支配を堅固にするために行うものだ」と述べた
（30日付英国ビルマ・キャンペーン）。
・新たに約200人のロヒンギャ難民が2日、インドネシア・
アチェ沖で見つかり保護された（4日付AFPほか）。
3日には在日ビルマロヒンギャ協会会員ら約60人が
駐日タイおよびビルマ大使館前でデモを行い、タイ政府に
難民の保護、ビルマ軍政にロヒンギャ民族への人権侵害
の停止を訴えた。
ASEAN国会議員によるミャンマー議連（AIPMC）は声明で、
ロヒンギャ難民を保護するようタイ・インドネシア両政府に求め、
2月末のサミットでビルマ難民問題を取り上げるようASEANに呼びかけた。
軍政は国内でのロヒンギャ民族の存在そのものを否定している。
・軍政が最近開いた会議の記録が流出し、ビルマ軍司令官が
バングラデシュを敵国とみなし強く警戒していることがわかった。
両国はベンガル湾にある天然ガス鉱区の位置を巡り対立中で、
昨年11月にはビルマが試掘作業を行ったことに抗議して
バングラデシュが軍艦を出動させ、ビルマ側が作業を
中断した経緯がある。ビルマ軍はバングラデシュとの陸の
国境周辺で兵力を増強している（30日付ミジマ）。
【ビルマへの政府開発援助（ODA）約束状況など】
2009年度の草の根・人間の安全保障無償資金協力へ
の応募（建設事業）受け付け中
【イベントなど】
・在日ビルマ人共同行動実行委員会アクション－
国連事務総長に対し、一刻も早くビルマを訪問し、
スーチーさんを含むすべての政治囚の釈放と対話の
促進を軍政に働きかけるよう要請するアピール行動
（国連大学前、2～6日15～16時）
・横浜YMCA「ミャンマー・サイクロン報告会～
発生から8ヶ月・復興に向けて」
（横浜中央YMCA906教室、6日18時半～）＊要申込
・第62回ビルマ連邦記念日祝典
ビルマのさまざまな民族の文化、音楽、舞踊の披露
（南大塚ホール、2月8日13時～）
・アウンサンスーチー氏と全ての政治囚の釈放を
求める緊急デモ行進
国民民主連盟（解放地域)日本支部主催
（南大塚・大塚台公園集合、8日19時～）
・ミャンマーの伝統糸あやつり「ヨウッテー・ポエー」～
シリーズアジアの人形芝居part14～
王族から庶民にまで広く愛されたミャンマーの華麗なる伝統芸能
7年ぶりの来日公演
現代人形劇センター主催
（ラゾーナ川崎プラザソル2月7日15時、18時半。
カスケードホールいきいきプラザ一番町 B1階2月10日15時、19時。
レクチャーデモンストレーション 東京ミッドタウン
富士ゼロックス501会議室、2月11日14時、16時）
＊チケット発売中
・日本ビルマ救援センター 月例ビルマ問題学習会
宇田有三「武装抵抗闘争60周年を迎えたカレン
民族同盟（KNU）の今」
（大阪ボランティアセンター、20日19時～）
・ビルマ市民フォーラム例会
外国人労働者は今…在日ビルマ人・外国人労働者の
おかれている状況について
（池袋・ECOとしま8階、2月21日18時～）
☆春秋社より新刊のお知らせ～
アラン・クレメンツ著「ダルマ・ライフ－日々の生活に"自由"を見つける方法」。
著者はビルマで得度して僧になった初めての米国人。
国際的な注目を集めるビルマの状況に対して、
新たな角度から光をあてる一冊。
四六判／372頁／定価（本体2500円＋税）
★ジェーン・バーキン最新アルバム『冬の子供たち』が
発売中。アウンサンスーチー氏に捧げる楽曲「アウンサンスーチー」を収録。
【もっと詳しい情報は】
きょうのビルマのニュース（平日毎日更新）
http://d.hatena.ne.jp/burmainfo/
ビルマ情報ネットワーク
http://www.burmainfo.org/
【お問い合わせ】
ビルマ情報ネットワーク 秋元由紀
====================================
今週のビルマのニュース Eメール版
2009年2月6日号【0905号】
作成： ビルマ情報ネットワーク
協力： ビルマ市民フォーラム
====================================
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配布元: BurmaInfo（ビルマ情報ネットワーク）
http://www.burmainfo.org
連絡先: listmaster@burmainfo.org
バックナンバー: http://groups.yahoo.co.jp/group/burmainfo/
※BurmaInfoでは、ビルマ（ミャンマー）に関する最新ニュースやイベント情報、
参考資料を週に数本配信しています。
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Ansari meets head of Myanmar's military junta
http://www.deccanherald.com/Content/Feb62009/foreign20090206116914.asp?section=updatenews
Nay Pyi Taw (Myanmar), PTI:
Myanmar sought India's assistance in agriculture and agriculture technology and in strengthening its railway network expressing keen interest to buy locomotives.
Giving a leg-up to the deepening bilateral engagement, Myanmar and India have identified two new areas of cooperation -- agriculture and railway -- as Vice President Hamid Ansari on Friday met the head of the country's military junta Gen Than She here.
The meeting between two leaders has taken place amidst indications that ties between New Delhi and Yangon are set to move into a meaningful phase.
Myanmar sought India's assistance in agriculture and agriculture technology and in strengthening its railway network expressing keen interest to buy locomotives.
Gen Maung Aye, with whom Ansari had extensive discussions covering all aspects of bilateral relations yesterday, noted the great progress made by India in the field of agriculture and agriculture technology and wanted cooperation in this area, Special Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs, Vivek Katzu said.
The officials of the two countries will now get down to identifying specific areas of cooperation in agriculture, Katzu told Indian journalists accompanying the Vice President here late last night.
"We have to work out plans for specific areas of cooperation in agriculture," said Indian Ambassador to Myanmar, Aloke Sen.
Katju also said another sector that emerged for cooperation is railway where Myanmar has sought India's help in extending its own rail network as part of its policy for strengthening the public transport sector.
India has in the past supplied locomotives and impressed by their performance. Myanmar is keen to have more of them, a senior official said.
What has enthused Myanmar in going for cooperation in railway sector is India's own huge rail network and its efficient functioning, Sen said.
India, for its turn, expressed deep interest in larger footprints of Myanmar's rich hydrocarbon sector which, along with hydropower and transportation, was singled out as a focus area of growth which could take bilateral relationship to a meaningful and substantive phase.
Ansari's talks with Myanmar's leadership brought out a clear and common understanding that bilateral relationship has moved in a positive direction and is posed for a time when the future should be shaped by keeping the focus on projects in sectors of mutual interest.
In a measure of the importance given by Myanmar to Ansari's visit, which is part of an interactive process between the two countries at the highest level, ten ministers and the Prime Minister of this country were present at the over two-hour delegation-level talks yesterday. As a senior Myanmarese official put it: "almost the entire cabinet was at the meeting".
There is a clear feeling in both the governments that the way forward lies only through economic cooperation as New Delhi reckons the India-Myanmar relations in the last seven years have taken a qualitatively higher trajectory encompassing a range of sectors -- road, power, hydrocarbon, telecom and information technology.
While India has been spurred to enhance its ties with Myanmar mainly guided by its own security interests given the insurgencies in northeastern states and its quest for energy security, Yangon has succeeded in taking advantage of New Delhi's economic, strategic and geopolitical imperatives, officials of both the countries here say.
India has ignored frequent nudges from the US and West European countries to shed its low-key response to Myanmar's handling of pro-democracy movement in the country and has walked a diplomatic tightrope, balancing energy and strategic security concerns with its commitment to democracy.
India had rolled out the red carpet for Myanmar's military rulers in the last five years with a high point being the visit by strongman Than Shwe to India in 2004.
UN urges Myanmar rulers, opposition to resume substantive talks
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/407175/1/.html
Posted: 06 February 2009 0811 hrs
UNITED NATIONS - UN chief Ban Ki-moon is appealing to Myanmar's military rulers and opposition to resume early, substantive negotiations without preconditions, his spokeswoman said Thursday.
Michele Montas said the secretary general issued the appeal after being briefed in New Delhi by his special adviser Ibrahim Gambari on the outcome of his four-day visit to Myanmar which ended Tuesday.
She added that Ban, who was in the Indian capital on the last leg of a two-week swing through Europe, Africa and Asia, looked forward "to building on the Gambari visit to further foster national dialogue and reconciliation" in Myanmar.
Ban "calls on the government and opposition to resume substantive dialogue without preconditions and without further delay," Montas said.
Gambari left Myanmar Tuesday after a visit aimed at nudging the regime toward dialogue with the democratic opposition, though he failed to secure a meeting with the top junta leadership.
Opposition leader and democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, under house arrest for most the past 19 years, met Gambari on Monday.
She had refused to see him on his previous visit to Myanmar in August.
Less than a day after Gambari left the country, Myanmar state media accused Aung San Suu Kyi of being unrealistic, leaving little room for the diplomatic manoeuvring the UN envoy is seeking. - AFP/vm
Breaking Burma’s official secrets
http://www.upiasia.com/Human_Rights/2009/02/05/breaking_burmas_official_secrets/3346/
By Awzar Thi
Column: Rule of LordsPublished: February 05, 2009TOOLBAR
Hong Kong, China —
When some villagers in Natmauk, central Burma, made a complaint last year that the army had illegally occupied land they had been farming, they probably hoped for a more sympathetic response than what they received.
The army unit concerned – which had set up an arms depot and allowed the farmers to return to their fields only upon payment of special fees – promptly detained and interrogated four of those who complained. After it got what it wanted from them, it illegally arrested another four, keeping them at its base and allegedly torturing them.
Two were also later released, while the other two were brought to court to be charged. One of them became a witness for the prosecutor, and in the end only one person had a case brought against him.
That person is Ko Zaw Htay, a 43-year-old man who had previously been detained over an accidental death on a road being built with forced labor – in breach of a government agreement with the International Labor Organization to stamp out the use of unpaid conscript workers on state projects.
Evidently, the local powers-that-be had it in for Zaw Htay. What really annoyed them was not the new complaint, but the fact that he had supposedly sent video footage of the confiscated land abroad, two-and-a-half minutes of which were broadcast on an overseas news website.
For this, Zaw Htay was charged under the colonial-era Official Secrets Act with approaching a prohibited place and making a record that might be useful to an enemy; or rather, with having someone else do that, even though the law is supposed to apply only to the person committing the act, not an accomplice or backer.
Watching the video – which can be viewed with narrative in Burmese at www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_m-nZQoYAQ from the four-minute mark – it is hard to see anything that might be useful to an enemy, other than for agricultural purposes. There are farmers tilling their fields, a couple of them describing what has happened since the army turned up, and a red-and-white signboard marked “Army Land: No Trespassing.”
What mattered to the embarrassed officer and local authorities was not that some remarkable military secret may have snuck out from under the crops, but that the bubble in which their world is contained had been broken open, its contents made visible to the outside. A little bit of rural Burma, which no one who didn’t live there had known or cared about, had been projected to the world without their prior approval.
This fear of enclosed spaces being penetrated and made knowable and understandable to people in other places is one of the features of the police state mentality. It is a fear in which that which is done is more disturbing than that which is revealed. Never mind what is shown or said, it is the fact of showing and saying that is offensive.
This fear has governed Burma for half a century. Throughout the 1960s and 1970s General Ne Win presided over what was characterized as a hermit state, where all types of movement inside and outside the country were extremely limited and any unauthorized contact with the world beyond could conceivably be punished.
When a young man was imprisoned for his role in anti-government rallies in 1974, for instance, the court handing down the verdict emphasized that his crime was to have sent a letter about it, in English, to the United Nations. If the act of protest was bad, telling someone in New York about it in a foreign language was worse.
Similarly, people who allegedly sent news abroad during the 2007 protests have been pursued and imprisoned with equal vigor as those who led the marches. And comedian Zarganar and human rights defender Myint Aye are facing long jail terms for talking too openly and too truthfully about the official indifference they saw in the wake of last year’s cyclone.
Some commentators who don’t know Burma have talked about it as if it is still sealed off, trapped on another planet beyond email, digital recording devices and the tiny objects on which people now store libraries of data. That land does not exist.
With thousands of Internet cafes around the country crammed with teenagers, periodicals full of news about the latest products from Japan or Korea, and even places like Natmauk coming onto computer screens, the bubble in which Burma is enclosed is psychological, not technological. It persists because of official fear about people like Zaw Htay.
As the authorities struggle to keep track of adversaries armed with new gadgets, there are certain to be many more cases brought to the courts in which all the prosecutor can say is that the accused is somehow to blame for sending something somewhere.
In Zaw Htay’s case, the police and army never found the video recorder that he allegedly gave to his friend to record the confiscated farmlands, and the CDs shown in evidence against him were not brought from his house but downloaded from a website. Still, for official fear, he was sentenced to 10 years in prison for his two-and-a-half minutes of video.
As technology and its users get further and further ahead of the people responsible for keeping Burma’s official secrets, the struggle to contain them is going to get harder and more dangerous for everyone determined to break them. But they are going with the tide, and they will succeed eventually.
--
(Awzar Thi is the pen name of a member of the Asian Human Rights Commission with over 15 years of experience as an advocate of human rights and the rule of law in Thailand and Burma. His Rule of Lords blog can be read at http://ratchasima.net)
Angelina Jolie voices support for Myanmar refugees in northern Thailand camps
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/LSGZ-7NYJ6X?OpenDocument
Source: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
Date: 05 Feb 2009
BAN MAI NAI SOI REFUGEE CAMP, Thailand, February 5 (UNHCR) – UNHCR Goodwill Ambassador Angelina Jolie has called on the Thai government to grant Myanmar refugees in northern Thailand greater freedom of movement, after spending a day listening to refugees tell of the difficulties they have faced in two decades of living in closed camps.
"I was saddened to meet a 21-year-old woman who was born in a refugee camp, who has never even been out of the camp and is now raising her own child in a camp," Jolie said after her visit Wednesday to Ban Mai Nai Soi camp, home to 18,111 mainly Karenni registered refugees, just three kms from the Myanmar border, near Mae Hong Son.
"With no foreseeable chance that these refugees will soon be able to return to Burma (Myanmar), we must find some way to help them work and become self reliant," she said.
The 111,000 registered refugees who live in nine camps in northern Thailand along the Thai-Myanmar border are not allowed to venture outside the camps to work or receive higher education.
In a thatched two-room house on stilts, Jolie sat down on the floor and chatted with refugee Ma Pai, a 44-year-old minority ethnic Kayan woman who has applied for resettlement to the United States.
At a boarding school for orphans and children separated from their parents, Jolie listened attentively as two teenage girls – sent across the border to the refugee camp by their parents for education – told of their fears that they might have to go back to Myanmar when they finish their schooling.
"I hope we can work with the Thai authorities to speed up the government admissions process and that you will not be forced to go back to Burma if danger remains," Jolie said.
The Thai government's Provincial Admissions Board, the only body that can grant refugee status to people fleeing fighting or persecution in Myanmar, has yet to process some 5,000 people who arrived in Mae Hong Son province in 2006 and 2007, the last time there was significant fighting in Kayah State just across the border. Throughout last year, people continued to trickle into Ban Mai Nai Soi and three other camps in the province, mostly fleeing forced labour and other human rights abuses.
One 26-year-old woman, Pan Sein, told Jolie she fled her village in Kayah State last November, and took a circuitous, hazardous journey on foot that finally brought her to the camp at the beginning of January.
"Weren't you scared to leave your parents and come on your own?" Jolie asked.
"Yes, I was scared," Pan Sein replied. "It was dangerous to flee, but even more dangerous to stay in my village."
Jolie's visit came at a time of worldwide attention to the large numbers of Rohingya migrants fleeing Myanmar's northern Rakhine state in rickety boats, and just after UNHCR gained access to 78 Rohingya boat people in detention in Ranong in southern Thailand.
"Visiting Ban Mai Nai Soi and seeing how hospitable Thailand has been to 111,000 mostly Karen and Karenni refugees over the years makes me hope that Thailand will be just as generous to the Rohingya refugees who are now arriving on their shores," Jolie said.
"I also hope the Rohingya situation stabilizes and their life in Myanmar improves so the people do not feel the desperate need to flee, especially considering how dangerous their journey has become," she added. "As with all people, they deserve to have their human rights respected."
By Kitty McKinsey
In Ban Mai Nai Soi Camp
Burmese PM’s Daughter Camera Shy on Her Wedding Day -IRRAWADDY
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=15067
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By MIN LWIN Thursday, February 5, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Opulence was the order of the day last Saturday, as Burmese Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein’s daughter married Capt Han Win Aung at a government guest house in Naypyidaw, in a ceremony attended by the country’s top generals and some of their closest business associates.
According to one of the guests at the event, the bride and groom were showered with gifts worth billions of kyat—or millions of dollars—including jewels, luxury cars, houses and deeds to valuable real estate.
Burma’s military rulers and their cronies are no strangers to ostentation, but on this occasion, there was at least some attempt to show restraint—by refraining from announcing the wedding in the state-run media.
Guests were also expected to rein in their usual enthusiasm for photographic trophies. Although the newlyweds had the good grace to put their guest’s largesse on full display, no cameras were permitted to record the spectacle.
It was not without reason that the regime decided to exercise self-censorship: Two and a half years ago, a video produced on a similar occasion angered the country’s mostly impoverished masses by giving them a rare glimpse of the excesses of Burma’s ruling elite.
In July 2006, footage of the nuptials between Thandar Shwe, daughter of the Burmese regime’s supreme leader, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, and Maj Zaw Pho Win was leaked to the exiled media and soon caught the attention of the international news networks.
A bootlegged DVD of the wedding reception, replete with images of riches unimaginable to most Burmese, quickly became a hot item on the streets of Rangoon. Possession of the DVD, dubbed “Night Bejeweled with Diamonds,” is a crime punishable by imprisonment.
At the time, sources told The Irrawaddy that the wedding itself cost around US $300,000. By some estimates, the value of the wedding gifts—including luxury cars, houses and land—ranged as high as $50 million. (See “Popular Outrage Sparked by ‘Wedding of the Year’ Video” http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=6297)
The guest who attended last Saturday’s ceremony confirmed that the newlyweds and their powerful parents were anxious to avoid similar speculation about the extent of their personal wealth.
“The wedding ceremony was relatively low key because they didn’t want the news to be leaked to outside media,” the source said.
China's Military Power
http://www.cfr.org/publication/18459/chinas_military_power.html?breadcrumb=%2F
Author: Jayshree Bajoria, Staff Writer
February 4, 2009
Scope of the Threat
China's Modernization Agenda
U.S. Policy Response
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Scope of the Threat
Since the 1990s, China has dramatically improved its military capabilities on land and sea, in the air, and in space. Recently, China has begun to project its military power beyond the Pacific Ocean by deploying a flotilla of small warships in December 2008 to the Gulf of Aden to aid in international efforts to fight Somali piracy. Historically, the United States is most concerned about the possibility of a conflict between China and Taiwan, though tensions between the two have lessened since 2008. But looking decades ahead, U.S. military planners clearly see the potential for China to develop as a "peer competitor." The U.S. Defense Department's 2008 report on China's military power says "much uncertainty surrounds China's future course, in particular in the area of its expanding military power and how that power might be used."
But experts say China is still decades away from challenging U.S. military's preeminence. Its ground forces field 1980s vintage armor and suffer from significant shortcomings in command and control, air defense, logistics, and communications. Its air force, too, lags behind those of Western powers, though China flies about one hundred top-end Russian Su-27 warplanes and has contracted to purchase newer Su-33s, which are capable of carrier-based operations. China plans to build aircraft carriers domestically, but currently has none under construction.
"China's military modernization makes perfect sense to me as a natural evolution commensurate with China's rise as a great power." -- James Mulvenon, Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis
None of this, however, adds up to an arms race. James Mulvenon, director of the Washington-based Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis, says China's military modernization "makes perfect sense to me as a natural evolution commensurate with China's rise as a great power." The concerns expressed by Western military experts focus on longer-term motives. Kerry Dumbaugh, a specialist in Asian affairs at the U.S. Congressional Research Service, sums up these security concerns (PDF) in a 2008 report, citing China's lack of transparency in military funding and operations; recurring instances of espionage directed at obtaining U.S. military secrets; evidence of China's improving military and technological prowess; and Beijing's military and technological assistance to states like Zimbabwe, Myanmar, and others viewed as repressive or international pariahs. Many of these issues may become less contentious through a better military-to-military relationship and improved trust between the two powers, say experts. For instance, the increasing economic interdependence of the United States and China should provide a solid basis for avoiding conflict. But accidents between the two militaries, such as the midair collision between a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese fighter in 2001, or the accidental missile strike on China's embassy in Belgrade in 1999, could still spark a conflict neither side desires.
China's Modernization Agenda
China says it pursues a national defense policy solely aimed at protecting its territory and people, and in keeping with its concept of "peaceful development." The government's latest white paper on national defense says it will "by and large reach the goal of modernization of national defense and armed forces by the mid-21st century." The paper stresses China's hopes to create a more technologically advanced, capable military that will allow it to conduct and sustain operations at a greater distance from its border and says the country will make much progress toward that goal by 2020.
As part of this modernization agenda, China is acquiring advanced weapons systems from foreign suppliers as well as trying to develop its own. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, in a statement to the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee in January 2009, said the areas of greatest concern are cyber- and anti-satellite warfare, anti-air and anti-ship weaponry, submarines, and ballistic missiles. "Modernization in these areas could threaten America's primary means of projecting power and helping allies in the Pacific: our bases, air and sea assets, and the networks that support them," he said.
China caused an international uproar in January 2007 when it launched a ballistic missile and destroyed one of its own satellites. The anti-satellite test displayed the growing prowess of China's space program and raised questions about China's intentions and civil-military relations within the country. In February 2008, U.S. destruction of a crippled U.S. spy satellite demonstrated that space may emerge as the new contested domain between the great powers. Yet the United States' relative space advantage will probably shrink as China strengthens its space capabilities over the next ten to twenty years, writes Bruce W. MacDonald in a September 2008 Council Special Report. The United States should champion an approach to space that emphasizes deterrence, he suggests, as well as consider new diplomatic initiatives aimed at preventing space from becoming a potential conflict zone.
The United States has also accused China of hacking into government computer networks at the U.S. Departments of State, Commerce, and Defense. Chinese electronic espionage has been alleged against British companies, as well as government agencies in France, Germany, South Korea, and Taiwan. In its November 2008 report to Congress, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission noted that cyberspace is a critical vulnerability of the U.S. government and economy. The report warns: "China is aggressively pursuing cyber warfare capabilities that may provide it with an asymmetric advantage against the United States. In a conflict situation, this advantage would reduce current U.S. conventional military dominance."
China has been modernizing its nuclear weapons systems and continues to emphasize its "no first use" policy on nuclear weapons. However, nonproliferation expert Henry Sokolski, in May 2008 testimony (PDF) before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, said if China were to increase its nuclear weapons deployment, it could prompt its immediate neighbors--South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan--to initiate nuclear weapons programs. Mulvenon says it is a concern for Washington that China has now finally deployed the DF-31--a solid-fueled, nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile to replace its aging liquid-fueled missiles. The DF-31 provides China with credible and secure second-strike capability, the ability to respond to a nuclear attack with powerful nuclear retaliation.
Beyond specific areas of concern, analysts express worry about discrepancies in China's defense budgets. China says its defense expenditure for 2007 was around $52 billion and its 2008 defense budget is $61 billion. However, the Pentagon says these figures are grossly underreported. In its annual report to Congress, it estimated China's total military-related spending for 2007 to be between $97 billion and $139 billion. China argues that its military budget was only 1.38 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2007, while U.S. defense expenditure was 4.5 percent of GDP. Experts also point to the absolute size of the United States' defense budgets to show the asymmetric comparison. The 2008 U.S. defense budget was $ 481.4 billion plus $141.7 billion for the "Global War on Terror."
U.S. Policy Response
While economic and trade relations between the United States and China have been growing, military to military relations remain relatively underdeveloped. Military conflict between the two is highly unlikely, but "not impossible" according to CFR Senior Fellow Adam Segal. Misperception or misunderstanding over an incident in the Taiwan Strait or the sudden collapse of North Korea might be the spark of a conflict neither side wants, he says.
The April 2001 "spy plane" debacle is an example of such a misunderstanding. Experts are worried there could be more incidents as the Chinese Navy and Air Force counduct exercises and patrols farther away from China and come into more frequent contact with the United States, Taiwan, and Japan.
But some experts see little prospect of a closer military relationship between the two countries in the near future. Admiral Timothy J. Keating, commander of U.S. Pacific Command, told CFR.org it would be a "giant leap of faith" to believe the United States and China could develop a close military partnership any time soon. To improve the relationship, Keating says, will require "more transparency, a better understanding of intention on our part of the Chinese, and to get there we would need more active cooperation with the Chinese."
The United States has followed a two-pronged strategy in the military-to-military relationship, says Mulvenon. It engages with the Chinese military through senior-level exchanges, and it has sought to modernize and reform its own forces. A 2007 CFR Independent Task Force report (PDF), which was cochaired by Dennis Blair, the Obama administration's director of national intelligence, recommended a sustained high-level military-strategic dialogue to complement the "Senior Dialogue" started by the deputy secretary of state in 2005 and the "Strategic Economic Dialogue" launched by the treasury secretary in 2006. It also recommends that Washington strengthen its security partnerships with China's neighbors. As this Backgrounder notes, the United States has been forging closer relations with countries in the region, including India, another regional power. It concluded a groundbreaking nuclear deal with New Delhi in 2008, lifting a three-decade U.S. moratorium on nuclear trade with India. The United States has also been upgrading forward deployed naval and air forces in Guam.
How U.S. defense planners will respond to China's military buildup going forward is also dependent on the ongoing debate over the biggest threats to U.S. national security in the twenty-first century. Writing in the latest Foreign Affairs, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates says the country now faces both conventional adversaries and irregular conflicts from insurgents and non-state actors, and it should "seek a better balance in the portfolio of capabilities it has--the types of units fielded, the weapons bought, the training done." However, in a situation of finite Department of Defense resources, some analysts argue that "striking the correct planning balance" (PDF) between operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the war on terror, and China's military modernization will be a key defense planning challenge.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org.
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Ansari arrives in Myanmar on four-day state visit
http://www.ptinews.com/pti%5Cptisite.nsf/0/D125E6C4B80BB877652575540038CBFB?OpenDocument
Pallab Bhattacharya
Naypyidaw (Myanmar), Feb 5 (PTI) Vice President Mohammad Hamid Ansari arrived here today on a four-day visit during which India and Myanmar will sign three agreements, one of which will see auto giant Tata Motors setting up a truck manufacturing unit in this neighbouring country.
Ansari, accompanied by wife Salma Ansari, was received at the airport of this new capital of Myanmar by General Maung Aye, number two in the country's ruling military juanta.
The Vice President, who is leading a high-level delegation of businessmen and top public sector undertaking executives, was given ceremonial welcome at the airport by Myanmar armed forces.
He will hold one-to-one talks with Gen Maung Aye, which will be followed by delegation level talks.
The three agreements will encompass sectors including transport, telecommunication and industrial.
The two countries will sign a Memorandum of Understanding for setting up an industrial training centre in Myanmar, while another accord will be between Tata Motors and Myanmar government for setting up a truck manufacturing unit in this country for which India has extended a credit line of USD 20 million.
Another MoU will be signed to establish Centre for English Language Training in Myanmar to train students
Myanmar Junta Calls Suu Kyi’s Conditions for Talks Unrealistic
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aiXg1npjP060&refer=asia
By Michael Heath
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Myanmar’s junta accused pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi of setting unrealistic conditions for talks, following the visit of a United Nations envoy trying to broker discussions between the military and the opposition.
“A dialogue will be practical and successful only if the discussions are based on the reality of prevailing conditions,” Information Minister Brigadier General Kyaw Hsan said in a statement carried by state media yesterday. “There will be no success if it is based on unrealistic conditions.”
Suu Kyi, who has spent 13 of the past 20 years under house arrest, told UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari on Feb. 2 that she would only hold talks with the junta if all political prisoners are released and the results of 1990 elections won by her National League for Democracy are recognized, Agence France-Presse reported, citing NLD members at the meeting.
The junta plans elections in 2010 after it staged a referendum last year for a new constitution that it said was approved by 92 percent of voters. The NLD denounced the charter, which bars Suu Kyi, 63, from holding office, saying it aims to extend military rule.
Gambari was making his fifth visit to Myanmar since the junta crushed pro-democracy demonstrations led by monks in 2007, prompting international condemnation. The regime has stepped up prosecutions of dissidents involved in the protests, in what human rights organizations say is an effort to crush anti- government groups before the elections.
More than 2,000 political prisoners are held in Myanmar’s jails, according to the U.S. State Department.
International Sanctions
Myanmar’s Prime Minister Thein Sein told Gambari Feb. 3, at the end of the envoy’s four-day visit, that the UN should press for the lifting of international sanctions to promote political improvements in the country, according to the state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper.
Sanctions have damaged human rights and hindered efforts to build a democratic nation, Thein Sein told Gambari.
Suu Kyi first arrested in 1989, has had only brief periods of freedom from detention in her home in Yangon since her party won the 1990 elections. The results were rejected by the military, which has ruled the country formerly known as Burma since 1962.
The Nobel Peace Prize winner, daughter of independence leader General Aung San, emerged as an opposition leader during an economic crisis in the late 1980s.
To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Heath in Sydney at mheath1@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: February 4, 2009 21:46 EST
Burma’s fifth column- BY DVB
http://english.dvb.no/news.php?id=2176
Tine Gyaw
Feb 4, 2009 (DVB)–In Burma’s current political arena, there are five distinct groups with different approaches to democratisation, the struggle for power, and participation in the 2010 elections.
The first is the military group. The objective of the military is clear – the survival of general Than Shwe and the military dictatorship in power by all available means. They have imposed a seven-step roadmap for the country and written a constitution to suit their own ends and have now stated that they will hold an election – in order to get what they want.
Another is the opposition group inside Burma led by the NLD. This group has declared that it doesn't accept the State Peace and Development Council’s 2008 constitution, but they haven't said clearly and decisively whether they are going to contest the election or not.
The third is the group that opposes and works to bring down the military group's seven-step road map in whatever way they can. This group is strongest outside the country.
The fourth group is made up of the strong armed ethnic ceasefire groups. Out of this group, well-equipped organisations such as the United Wa State Army and the Kachin Independence Organisation neither accept nor reject the SPDC's plans for the 2010 election. This group maintains a policy of neutrality and insists that it will only deal with the government that emerges from the future elections. In essence, this group doesn't seem to accept the SPDC's 2008 constitution and 2010 election.
The last group says it will contest the election in accordance with the 2008 constitution to be organised by the SPDC, and try to achieve democracy reform gradually. This group also opposes the sanctions imposed by western countries against Burma. Although this group was originally made up of opponents of sanctions and those who are rallying for the emergence of civil institutions, they have since been joined by members of the NLD and other opposition groups who have became disillusioned with their leaders. They are also said to have gained support from western countries.
There are three main points to consider with regard to this group.
First, their opposition to the economic sanctions imposed on Burma by western nations. Second, their struggle to set up civil institutions within the country. Third, their acceptance of the 2008 constitution and willingness to participate in the 2010 election.
Controversy has raged for years on the first point. Recently, East Timor's president Ramos Horta said that he opposes the sanctions. But this group fails to point out that the military group has been seeking personal benefits from this issue, blocking some national businesses for their own benefit and mismanaging the economy to ensure the perpetuation of its power. It also fails to point out the role of the military government in the deterioration of the economy of the country.
This group even claims that the economy of Burma has suffered because of the economic sanctions, causing the lack of an emerging middle class and the obstruction of democratic change. But there has been no attempt to establish how the military regime would carry out political and economic change, and how political restrictions would be removed, if sanctions were lifted. Instead, the issue has been used to split the opposition.
Another slogan of this group is the need for the emergence of a vibrant civil society. If you take this slogan at face value, it seems to right. But in reality, it is clear that the military government has carried out severe oppression so that civil institutions would not emerge in Burma. The associations which were allowed to exist under the one-party Burma Socialist Party Programme system in schools are now outlawed with the exception of Robert Taylor and Dr Kyaw Yin Hlaing’s groups.
To be frank, Cyclone Nargis presented a positive opportunity to set up civil institutions. The military government made a concerted effort not to allow this to happen, and only allowed the formation of organisations by supporters of the regime and those who share its interests.
What is really needed in Burma is the official right to existence for independent civil organisations that carry out work for the benefit of the people, not just the creation of civil institutions that carry out the wishes of the military.
The final slogan of this group is its willingness to participate in the election and to try to take any opportunities it can for democracy. The idea is to get more democratic rights, step by step. But this seems to be the same strategy the military is taking to preserve the dictatorship, but in another form. There were some bitter lessons to be learned not long ago. The 1962 coup leader general Ne Win's government ruled the country systematically according to the 1974 constitution, Hlutaw and party. General Ne Win became president Ne Win, then party chairman Ne Win with no change in the system of power and no improvement for the country and the people, who were instead led along the road to ruin.
Now, the people of this group could become elected MPs in the coming election as they expect. They could achieve some more rights. But you won't see any road to improvement for the people and the country. It is necessary to see the truth in this group’s words, which are becoming ever louder, and unveil it for what it is.
At this stage, it won't be sufficient for the NLD and opposition groups just to criticise and attack this fifth column. If they are not on the right path, it is necessary to tell people immediately and concisely what this path should be. It is necessary to explain to the international community firmly. It is necessary to persuade and convince army officers and soldiers who do not like the military dictatorship. In the end, it is necessary to be able explain to those who support the military that their actions are not right, until they can understand and accept it.
Only then can there be true change in Burma.
Fw: [MekongWatch]ビルマ・ダム＞カチン州で中国企業が建設開始
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ビルマ市民フォーラム メールマガジン 2009/2/4
People's Forum on Burma
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
特定非営利活動法人メコン・ウォッチ( http://www.mekongwatch.org/)
からのメールを転送させていただきます。
（重複の際は何卒ご容赦ください。）
ＰＦＢ事務局
http://www1.jca.apc.org/pfb/
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
みなさま
ビルマ（ミャンマー）北部カチン州、イラワジ（エーヤワディー）川の上流の町
チブウェ周辺で、中国企業とビルマ軍政の息がかかった企業が共同で水力発電所
建設を進めているという情報をお伝えします。ダム自体による自然環境や住民生
活への影響も大きな懸念材料ではありますが、以下の翻訳記事をお読みいただく
と、爆破作業が軍の監視下で実施される、企業が地元の商店に建設資材を無料で
提供させる、挙句の果てには作業員たちが地元の食堂で何ヶ月も無銭飲食のし放
題と、ビルマが軍政下にあることで、ダム建設にともなうさまざまな問題が先鋭
化して現れることが改めてお分かりいただけるかと思います。
なお、最近、ビルマ河川ネットワーク（Burma Rivers Network）がウェブサイト
を改訂し、メコン河をはじめ、イラワジ川、サルウィン川など、ビルマ国内の主
な河川とその支流でのダム建設に関する情報が容易に閲覧できるようになりまし
た。ダム自体の情報だけにとどまらず、中国、タイ、インド、日本など、建設事
業への出資者に関する情報も掲載されています。現在、英語とビルマ語での閲覧
が可能ですが、今後は中国語での閲覧も可能になるとのことです。以下の記事に
あるチブウェ水力発電所建設計画も地図上で確認することができます。ぜひ一度、
ご覧になって下さい。
http://www.burmariversnetwork.org
========================================
カチン州で中国がダム建設を開始
イラワジ・オンライン
2008年12月8日
ウィリアム・ブート
ビルマ北部カチン州を流れる河川に建設中の水力発電所によって、数多くの人び
とが住居を失い、保護を必要とする生態系が破壊される危機に直面している。
ビルマ軍事政権は、中国電力投資公司（CPI）および軍事政権を支持するビルマ
のアジアワールド社（AWC）と共同で、マリカ（Mali）とンマイカ（Nmai）（メー
カ）の両河川の少なくとも7ヶ所に水力発電所を建設しようとしており、発電し
た電力は中国雲南省の電力網を経由して中国西部あるいは東部臨海地域に供給さ
れる。
軍事政権が電力の販売によって中国から得る収入は年間約5億ドルにのぼる可能
性があるが、ビルマ国内の電力網が改善されることはない。
タイを拠点とするカチン開発ネットワークグループ（KDNG）によると、軍事政権
の第1電力省とCPIは、少なくとも3600メガワット（MW）をこれらの水力発電所に
よって発電することで合意している。
現地での目撃談によると、建設工事はすでに始まっており、掘削機やブルドーザー
を使って道路も建設中で、AWCが地質学者を送り込み、ンマイカ川沿いのチブウェ
（Chibwe）－ソロ（Sawlaw）間の3ヵ所で調査を開始している。
住民の証言では、ビルマ軍第121歩兵大隊が見守る中、1000人を超えるAWCの作業
員が現地に仮の宿舎を建設し、この2ヶ月間は河床でダイナマイトを爆発する音
が響く回数も増えてきている。
KDNGの予測では、ダムによって消滅する村が47ヶ所にのぼり、広大な原生林が水
没するため、河川の生物多様性と植生に多大な影響が生じる。
原文（英語）は、以下のサイトで閲覧可能
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=14764
========================================
チブウェ水力発電所建設に1000人を超える中国人作業員
カチン・ニュース・グループ（KNG)
2009年1月13日（火）
現地からの情報によると、ビルマ北部カチン州のチブウェを流れるンマイカ（メー
カ）川での水力発電所建設計画を進めるために、昨年（2008年）12月下旬以降、
1000人もの中国人作業員が現地に派遣されている。
チブウェの住民によると、これらの中国人作業員は中国電力投資公司（CPI）の
従業員で、かつての麻薬王ロー・シン・ハンが所有するビルマのアジアワールド
社（AWC）のビルマ人従業員約300人とともに作業に従事している。
チブウェ水力発電所の建設現場で働く中国人作業員の数は、昨年12月初旬の300
人前後と比べると格段に増え、1000人ほどにもなっているとのことである。
現在2社の作業員は二つの作業を行っており、一つはチブウェ近郊を流れるカチ
ン州第2の河川ンマイカ川で調査を実施すること、いま一つは同地点に水力発電
所を建設するのに必要な電力を供給する小型水力発電所をンマイカ川と合流する
チブウェ川に建設することであるという。
ビルマ－中国国境を拠点にダムに反対する活動を続けているカチン開発ネットワー
クグループ（KDNG）のオンワ（Awng Wa）代表は、KNGの取材に答えて、「CPIの
下でチブウェ水力発電所事業に関わっている中国企業は、水力発電事業を進めな
がら同時に貴重な鉱山資源を現地から中国に運び去っている」と述べた。
チブウェの住民やビルマ－中国国境の貿易業者らによれば、付近では鉱石、銀、
アルミニウム、鉛、黒鉛などの鉱山資源が見つかり、中国に持ち込むと高値で売
れる。
また、AWCは、2008年10月、軍のヘリコプターが発着できる場所を3ヵ所設けるた
めに軍事政権が没収したチブウェサッカー場に、300×50フィート（訳注：1394
平方メートル）の面積の建物を建設している。同社に近い筋の話では、この建物
はチブウェ水力発電所計画の総務事務所として使われる予定で、会議室、事務職
員室、駐車場などを完備している。
チブウェで食堂を営む人びとは、この6ヵ月から1年間というもの、AWCの作業員
が連日無銭飲食をするため困り果てており、閉店に追込まれようとしている。ま
た、建築材を販売する店も、AWCの要求にしたがって長期間無料で資材を提供し
なければならない。
CPIやAWCには軍事政権の強力な後ろ盾があるため、文句を言うこともかなわない、
と現地の住民は語った。
チブウェ水力発電所事業は、2006年以来、中国のCPIと軍政のAWCがカチン州を流
れるマリカ川とンマイカ川で建設する計7ヶ所の水力発電所の一つである。チブ
ウェ水力発電所の総発電容量は2000MWにのぼる。
2社の情報筋によると、チブウェ水力発電所事業の実施期間は20年間である。
原文（英語）は以下のサイトで閲覧可能http://www.kachinnews.com/index.ph
p?option=com_content&task=view&id=699&Itemid=50
訳注：マリカ川とンマイカ川とが合流してイラワジ川となる。地元住民が聖地と
みなすこの合流地点（ミッソン）にも大型水力発電事業が計画されている。
（文責・翻訳 土井利幸／メコン・ウォッチ）
-- メコン河開発メールニュース
発行：特定非営利活動法人メコン・ウォッチ
E-mail: info@mekongwatch.org
Website: http://www.mekongwatch.org/
登録解除・バックナンバー---->http://www.mekongwatch.org/news/
管理担当者に連絡------------>mailto:news-admin@mekongwatch.org
Fw: [BRCJ]2月の活動案内
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ビルマ市民フォーラム メールマガジン 2009/2/4
People's Forum on Burma
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
日本ビルマ救援センター（ＢＲＣＪ）からのお知らせを転送させていただき
ます。
（重複の際は何卒ご容赦ください。）
ＰＦＢ事務局
http://www1.jca.apc.org/pfb/
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
皆さま、
2月の月例ビルマ問題学習会をご案内いたします。
なお、3月の学習会は19日(木）に実施いたします。
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
■月例ビルマ問題学習会 （２０日、大阪市・谷七）
「－武装抵抗闘争６０周年を迎えたカレン民族同盟（ＫＮＵ）の今－」
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
○日時：２月２０日（金） １９：００～２０：３０
○講師：宇田 有三さん(フォトジャーナリスト）
○内容：
１月３１日（土）、久しぶりにビルマに関するニュースが流れた。
ガンバリ国連事務総長特別顧問（ミャンマー担当）が５ヶ月ぶりに
ビルマを訪問。
そのまさしく同じ日、ビルマの東端タイ国境に接するカレン州で、
ビルマ国軍に対して武装抵抗を続けるカレン民族同盟（KNU)による
「革命６０周年」の式典が行われた。
６０００人近い人が参加した華やかな式典の裏側では、第二次世界
大戦後、世界で最も古い内戦は今も続く。
世代交代が進むカレン民族同盟は今後、どこへ向かうのか。
「革命式典」を取材した宇田が、カレン民族同盟の現状を報告する。
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Junta builds weapons factory in central Burma-MIZZIMA
http://www.mizzima.com/news/inside-burma/1649-junta-builds-weapons-factory-in-central-burma.html
by Zarni
Tuesday, 03 February 2009 21:17
Chiang Mai (Mizzima) - Burma's ruling military junta has completed construction of nearly half of a new factory that will produce military weapons and tanks, sources said.
The source, close to the construction company, said the new weapons factory was being built in central Burma's Magwe division in Seatottaryar Township, by the 'Chan Aye' construction company.
"The construction has been going on for about two years, and about half of the factory has been completed so far. As far as I know, the factory will produce weapons as well as tanks," the source, who declined to be named for fear of reprisal, told Mizzima.
The Chan Aye Construction Company is a joint venture between several ex-military servicemen and is engaged in various military constructions.
Reportedly, local residents near the area of the factory construction said several acres of their farm lands, had been seized by the government, without providing any compensation.
"I had about 20 acres of land in the area and cultivated beans and other vegetables on it. But, the authorities destroyed my crops with a bulldozer and cleared my land for construction," a local resident told Mizzima.
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