http://rupeenews.com/2009/01/04/indias-border-disputes-with-all-her-neighbors/
Posted on January 4, 2009 by Moin Ansari
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India has been unable to resolve any problems or border disputes with any of her neighbors. She has the unique distinction of having wars with all her neighbors. Khaled Ahmed reviews the book by Gupta and Sharma.
Book review: India’s maritime troubles -by Khaled Ahmed
Contested Coastlines: Fisherfolk, Nations and Borders in South Asia;
By Charu Gupta & Mukul Sharma Routledge 2008 Pp251; Price Indian Rs 650. Available in bookstores in Pakistan
South Asia has unresolved border disputes with consequences for human beings living alongside these disputed lines. It also has unresolved maritime problems with consequences for fishermen who go to the sea to catch fish and are caught because they have crossed lines they can’t see.
The tragedy is that the people who catch them also can’t see where the national boundary is. Fishermen therefore have become a symbol of the immaturity of the nation states in South Asia. It is a shame that imprisoned fishermen are dramatically “exchanged” every now and then as a reluctant confidence-building measure with which to dupe the world.
Gupta and Sharma have written a very important book and its importance lies in its humanist involvement in the plight of fishermen. The book also contains the best account in one place of the three big maritime muddles that bring a bad name to the subcontinent.
Sadly, nationalisms have become attached to the Sir Creek dispute between Pakistan and India; and if you ask a Pakistani or an Indian what the quarrel is all about, he doesn’t know. Yet he supports governments who don’t want to resolve the dispute but in fact use Sir Creek as one of the grounds on which to condemn the ‘enemy’ country.
India has a coastline 7,417 km long, out of which the Gujarat state has 1,663 km, which is one-third of the entire coastline, which makes Gujarat the principal maritime state of India. Because of a rich delta, Gujarat has the best fishing, and the Gulf of Kutch has the best fish known in India. Next to Gujarat is Pakistan, and there are no agreed maritime frontiers between the two. The Maritime Zones Act of India 1976 and 1981 under which the fishermen are caught and punished doesn’t conform to the United Nations Convention on Law of the Seas (UNCLOS), which India has signed. Pakistan is guilty of the same non-conformity.
The rival geographies of India and Pakistan are symbolised by the rival cartographies relating to Sir Creek, which is a 100 km long estuary in the marshes of the Rann of Kutch between Gujarat and Sindh. Sir Creek is not a flowing creek but a tidal channel which has no officially demarcated boundary separating Pakistan and India. Till 1954 there was free movement across the Creek. Then came the issue of finding out where the border lay. And this border was also to decide where in the Arabian Sea the line will be drawn separating Indian waters from Pakistani waters.
Till these two issues are resolved, the two countries cannot set up their continental shelves up to 350 nautical miles and describe their economic zones up to 200 nautical miles. The deadline for doing so falls in 2009. This is the area where the two could find oil and gas deposits. They can’t exploit these deposits without first sorting out the maritime boundary dispute. And the line that is drawn to describe the national frontier along Sir Creek will decide who gets how much of the sea off the Gulf of Kutch. That explains why there is no ‘give and take’ in the bilateral negotiations.
The western side of Sir Creek is under Pakistani control, and there are naval installations on the Indian side. Pakistan owns 16 creeks of Sindh and lays claim to the 17th called Sir Creek by saying that the dividing line must run along the eastern bank of the Creek - on the basis of an old map that India no longer recognises despite past record of an agreement of 1914 signed by the governments of Bombay, Sindh and the Raja of Kutch.
The Pakistani claim thus includes the left bank of the Creek, which means that the maritime border too will have to run further east than where the Indians think it is right now. The Creek no longer flows and has shifted westwards, to Pakistan’s disadvantage. Pakistan wants the boundary established according to the historical maps; India wants that too but according to thalweg.
As both the countries are deadlocked after 9 rounds of discussions till 2006, the fisherfolk suffer at the hands of the police and intelligence agencies. These poor original owners of the coast are doomed because both countries have killed the world’s biggest mangroves and fish reserve through pollution and are now simply focused on oil and gas that might or might not be there on the continental shelf. Let’s hope that there is no secret discovery of oil or gas in the uncharted waters or the two will likely have another casus belli.
India and Sri Lanka share a maritime border which is more than 400 km long cutting across three different seas: the Bay of Bengal in the north, the Palk Bay in the centre and the Gulf of Mannar in the south. In 1974 and 1976, the two countries signed agreements on how to sort out their boundaries in the sea and their territorial waters extending 12 nautical miles from the coast. The second agreement barred fishing in each other’s side of the line demarcated in the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Mannar. But there are islands given to one or the other country which cause confusion among the fishermen. The result is jailed fishermen in India and Sri Lanka.
With countries located close to one another and in some ways opposite rather than alongside each other, there is bound to be trouble when demarcating long 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zones. And if the sands are shifting either in the case of Sir Creek or in the case of an island in the case of Bay of Bengal, the states are going to be selfish in the absence of statesmen among their politicians. The India-Bangladesh land border is 4,000 km long and there are 20 million illegal Bangladeshis in India, which makes India rather nervous about people it catches crossing over.
The Bay of Bengal is the crux of the problem. Bangladesh has a concave coast reducing its continental shelf if the line is drawn from the coast; India has a convex coast and gets a larger share of the Gulf as continental shelf. India and Burma both reject Bangladesh’s stance that its shelf be measured from where its coastline is navigable and not choked with riverine effluvium. To make things worse, India and Bangladesh claim a 2 miles square island, two miles from India and five from Bangladesh, which has appeared in the Bay of Bengal composed of drifting volcanic silt. The quarrel is based on the flow of the river Haribanga inside the Bay.
When the coastal states are looking at the sea with greed and refuse to demarcate their areas of control, the fishermen come in the middle of the crossfire. The book describes the suffering of these poor people whose lives are already faced with destruction because of the environmental damage caused by these states to their fish beds. In old days, they had no problems with going far into the sea. Today navies patrol the waters jealously and spend their bravado on these victims of ‘contested coastlines’.
Monday, January 5, 2009
India’s border disputes with all her neighbors
Myanmar to conduct 1st pilot training course at home
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/04/content_10600969.htm
www.chinaview.cn 2009-01-04 13:35:19 Print
YANGON, Jan. 4 (Xinhua) -- Myanmar will conduct its first commercial pilot license course at home as a base to enable the country's trainees to pursue further training abroad, the local weekly Voice quoted the Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) as reporting Sunday.
Conducted by the DCA under the Ministry of Transport in accordance with the prescription of the International Civil Aviation Organization, the domestic pilot training course is aimed at nurturing civilian pilots in addition to military's, the report said.
The availability of the training course domestically has saved much expense for Myanmar young trainees to pursue abroad, retired pilots said.
According to an earlier official report, Myanmar's first two prospective women pilots with one of the domestic private airlines are being trained in Malaysia on flying skill.
The two women staff of the Air Bagan, who are among the six selected with four other male staff, underwent training at the Integrated Aviation Academy of Malaysia.
There is a total of four airlines operating domestic routes in Myanmar, of which one is the state-owned Myanmar Airways, while the other three are private-owned which are Air Mandalay, Yangon Airways and Air Bagan.
Editor: An
Human Rights Abuse in Myanmar?-SOUTH KOREA
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2009/01/160_37236.html
By David Watermeyer
It is tragic, yet sadly unsurprising, that the Korean government has rejected a serious complaint filed against Daewoo International and Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS) by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) regarding their ``complicity in human rights abuses" in Myanmar (Burma) in the course of building a pipeline through the country.
``Burma'' is used here to show solidarity with those who denounce as nothing less than evil the actions of military junta who were responsible for naming the county Myanmar.
According to a news release put out by the Shwe Gas Movement (SGM), SGM global coordinator Wong Aung, a member of the Arakan ethnic group, through whose community the proposed pipeline will traverse, strongly criticized the Korean government's decision on Tuesday.
An extraction from the report says, ``The Korean government has decided to ignore the reality of major resource extraction projects in Myanmar and the specific devastating effects of the Shwe project on the people in the pipeline regions.
The Korean government has a responsibility under OECD guidelines. In rejecting the complaint they are abdicating their responsibility to investigate violations and mediate disputes in line with the guidelines; guidelines to which the have agreed to be obligated.''
All over the world people have watched in horror as atrocity after atrocity is committed by the military junta in that country, where unarmed Buddhist monks were gunned down like flies and rations from foreign countries after Cyclone Nargis devastated the country on May 3 meant for the starving millions by were blocked from delivery by this same military junta in an unspeakable act of callousness.
What is less known is how the junta continues to empower itself to rule over its people through dealings with various other countries and companies.
If these entities would not support the military junta but rather join the rest of the world in condemning and boycotting it, the tyrannical regime would not be able to continue.
The news release said, ``Daewoo International and the KOGAS have breached and will continue to breach a number of the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises related to their activities in Burma (Myanmar)."
``These breaches are related to the companies' exploration, development, and operation of the natural gas project in Burma known as the Shwe Gas Project, meaning ``gold" in Burmese."
Few are unaffected by the trying economic times we are living in and that may play a part in why KOSGAS and Daewoo International, despite being told clearly at the highest level what is going on, appear to be paying no heed to the cries of the Myanmarese population.
But surely there are other options to explore than being complicit in evil.
David Watermeyer is a freelance writer residing in Seoul. He can be reached at davidnwatermeyer@yahoo.co.uk. The views expressed in the above article is those of the author and do not reflect the editorial policy of The Korea Times.
Opposition: No hope for future of Myanmar
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ha1V_z9Mndrl3jzuD2Ip68UrRMmAD95G8TS80
YANGON, Myanmar (AP) — Myanmar's pro-democracy party marked the 61st anniversary of the country's independence from Great Britain on Sunday, saying it foresaw no hope for the military-ruled country.
At a ceremony inside the dilapidated headquarters of the opposition National League for Democracy, its chairman Aung Shwe also called for the release of Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi and other party leaders.
Suu Kyi — who has been under house arrest for more than 13 of the past 19 years — put up a banner at the gate of her home quoting a speech her father, independence hero Gen. Aung San, had once given: "Act decisively in the interest of the nation and the people."
In a speech to about 250 party members and diplomats, Aung Shwe said that national unity is in disarray and that there is "no harmony between the government and the governed."
"Hope for the present and future of the country is totally lacking," Aung Shwe said.
Myanmar gained independence from Britain on Jan. 4, 1948, after more than 120 years of colonial rule. It has been under harsh military rule since 1962.
Meanwhile, the leader of the military junta Senior Gen. Than Shwe warned that "neocolonialists" were interfering in domestic affairs and inciting riots to undermine unity and stability.
"Neocolonialists" normally refers to Western nations that have been sharply critical of the regime's human rights record and brutal crackdowns on any protests.
The current junta emerged in 1988 after violently suppressing mass pro-democracy protests. It held a general election in 1990, but refused to recognize the results after a landslide victory by Suu Kyi's party.
Hosted by Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Rats Causing Famine in Myanmar
http://www.gfa.org/rats-causing-famine-in-myanmar
These men are trying to protect their field by beating the rats with sticks.
See more photos here.
Bamboo is normally a steady source of food for people in Southeast Asia. But part of the bamboo plant's natural growing cycle has caused parts of the region to be overrun with rats, which has caused a famine in the small country of Myanmar (Burma). At least 40 children have died, and more than 100,000 are living on the brink of starvation because of this crisis.
The events that led to the famine began in September 2007, when the bamboo plants began blooming and producing fruit, an event that happens only once every 50 years. The rats eat the fruit, which increases their fertility and greatly multiplies their birthrate. Once the rats have finished eating the bamboo plants, they plow their way through other fields, devouring grain, corn and rice. The rats even dig up and eat the seeds farmers have planted in the ground.
At least 40 children have died in the famine, and more than 100,000 are living on the brink of starvation because of this crisis.
The twice-a-century event is called a "mautam." "Mau" is the Burmese word for bamboo and "tam" means famine.
Gospel for Asia missionary Kyetipat Maung reports that people have resorted to eating the only thing there is an abundance of—the rats themselves.
"My family normally eats rice, but the rats have destroyed everything we had, and the only things left are the rats and wild potatoes for our family," said Gway Win, a man who lives in the same village as Kyetipat. "We catch more than 50 rats every day, and we eat the rat meat for survival."
The rat infestation is most severe in Myanmar's Chin state, at its western border with India. Kyetipat reports that 79 villages are directly affected by the famine. In the five worst-hit districts, no food has been harvested for a full year. The crisis has resulted in a myriad of related health problems, including malaria, typhoid, diarrhea and skin problems.
Schools in the area are even closed as a result.
"The students are out searching for vegetables and fruits in the jungle," a local teacher explained.
"My family normally eats rice, but the rats have destroyed everything we had, and the only thing left is the rats and wild potatoes for our family." Gway Win, famine survivor.
Many people have left their villages and gone to neighboring India, where the crisis has not had such a tragic effect. Although the bamboo bloom occurs in India, the government has programs in place to protect the crops and stop the proliferation of rats. There are only scattered reports of major rat infestations in India, mostly in the state of Manipur at the India-Myanmar border.
Adding to the problem in Myanmar is the ruling junta's refusal to distribute aid to the affected people. There are reports that officials intercept food donations and resell them at more than twice their pre-famine value.
GFA missionaries, like Kyetipat, are doing all they can to help, from distributing food to killing rats. They are able to help because they already live and work in the affected areas, whereas the government bans aid workers from outside organizations.
This mautam is much worse than the previous event. The last time the bamboo bloomed, in the late 1950s, it only lasted a few months. This time, the plants have bloomed in stages over a 15-month period, which has extended the misery.
Kyetipat and the other missionaries in this area ask for your fervent prayer for the people in Chin, Myanmar.
Pray that the natural blooming cycle of the bamboo will end quickly.
Pray that rat control efforts will be successful.
Ask the Lord to put a shield of protection around our missionaries as they distribute aid to those most in need.
Ask the Lord to spare lives, especially the thousands who have yet to hear the Gospel.
Pray that each of the Christians who live in Myanmar would model Christ's love during this time of great difficulty.
Petition the Lord to replace Myanmar's ruling junta with officials who will lead the country in a more godly direction.
မဂၤလာ၂၀၀၉
From: "Moe Hnin Aye"
၂၀၀၉ မဂၤလာခုႏွစ္တြင္းသို ့မဂၤလာရွိစြာျခည္းနင္း၀င္ေရာက္လာေလျပီ
နအဖ ၂၀၁၀ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲၾကီးနီးလာျပီ အစိုးရမင္းမ်ား မ်ားလာေတာ့မည္
၁၉၉၀ ေရြးေကာက္ပြဲအမတ္မင္းမ်ား အေ၀းေရာက္အစိုးရအဖြဲ ့ၾကီးကိုလည္း
တိုးခ်ဲ ့ေတာ့မည္ လက္ရွိအေ၀းေရာက္အစိုးရမင္းမ်ားႏွင့္ ဒီမိုကေရစီလည္း မရ
ႏိုင္ ေနာက္ထပ္နံမည္တစ္မ်ိဴးႏွင့္ အစိုးရတရပ္ေပၚလာမလိုျဖစ္ေနရာမွ ပူးေပါင္း
၍ တိုးခ်ဲ ့ဖြဲ ့စည္းေတာ့မည္ၾကားရ၍ ျပည္သူျပည္သားမ်ား ၀မ္းသာရမလိုျဖစ္
ေနသည္ လက္ရွိအေ၀းေရာက္အစိုးရ၀န္ၾကီးခ်ဴပ္ကလည္း သူမသိလို ့ေျပာေန
သည္ မည္သို့ျဖစ္ေလမည္မသိ ေနာင္တစ္ခ်ိန္တြင္ သူသာလွ်င္၀န္ၾကီးခ်ဴပ္
ျဖစ္ေလသည္ ဟူ၍ ၀န္ၾကီးခ်ဴပ္ဦးစိန္၀င္းက ေျပာလာလွ်င္ မည္သို ့လုပ္ၾက
မည္နည္း ဘယ္လိုပဲျဖစ္ျဖစ္ တိုးခ်ဲ ့ဖြဲ ့စည္းျပီးပါက ၀န္ၾကီးမ်ား၀န္ကေလးမ်ား
ေပါမ်ားလာေတာ့မည္
နအဖအစိုးရမင္းမ်ားကေစလႊတ္လိုက္ေသာေထာက္လွမ္းေရးမ်ားကလဲ
မ်ားလွသည္ နံမည္အတိအက်သိရ၍ အတိုက္အခံမ်ားကေတာ္လွေလသည္
နံမည္တူ စက္ရုံအလုပ္ရုံအလုပ္သမားမ်ားေက်ာခ်မ္းစရာေကာင္းလွသည္ ေထာက္လွမ္းေရးမ်ားနွင့္နံမည္တူေနက ခက္လွေျချပီ ျမန္မာျပည္အငတ္ေဘး
ကလြတ္နိုင္စရာ နယ္စပ္သို ့အလုပ္လာလုပ္ခါမွ ေထာက္လွမ္းေရးလို ့စြပ္စြဲခံရ
လွ်င္ကိုယ္က်ိဴးနဲရေျခမည္
ဘာပဲျဖစ္ျဖစ္ အတိုက္အခံတို ့လုံျခံဳေရးတိုးျမွင့္ရေတာ့ေပမည္ ကိုယ္ေဘး
၀န္းက်င္၌ေထာက္လွမ္းေရး ယူဆရသူတို ့ရွိမရွိ အကဲခတ္ရေပေတာ့မည္ လူၾကီးမ်ားနွင့္မသင့္ျမတ္သူတို ့ေထာက္လွမ္းေရးျဖစ္ေနက ခက္ေပေတာ့မည္
ျပည္သူလူထုၾကီးကိုစည္းရုံးေရးလုပ္စရာမလိုေပ ေထာက္လွမ္းေရးမ်ားတိုးလာ
လွ်င္ခက္ေပမည္မဟုတ္ေလာ ကမၻာအင္အားၾကီးႏိုင္ငံမ်ား စီမံခန္ ့ခြဲေရးညံ့ဖ်င္း
၍ စီးပ ြားေရးက်ဆင္းရေလသည္ သူတို ့မွာအစိုးရမင္းအဖြဲ ့မ်ားနည္းလွလို့ျဖစ္ရ
သည္ ကြ်နု္ပ္တို ့ျမန္မာနိုင္ငံသားမ်ားပူစရာမလိုေပ အစိုးရမင္းမ်ား မ်ားလာ
ေတာ့မည္ျဖစ္၍ စစ္မွန္ေသာဒီမိုကေရစီနွင့္စည္းကမ္းရွိေသာဒီမိုကေရစီမ်ားတစ္
ခုခုမ်ားမၾကာမီကြ်န္ုပ္တို ့ရလာေပေတာ့မည္ျဖစ္၍ အစိုးရမင္းမ်ား မ်ားျပားေသာ္
လည္းျပည္သူျပည္သားတို ့အဖို ့၀မ္းသာပီတိျဖစ္မိရပါေၾကာင္း ၂၀၀၉ ခုနွစ္ႏွစ္
သစ္မဂၤလာ အခါသမယတြင္ ၀မ္းေျမာက္ပိတိဂြမ္းဆီထိျဖင့္ ဇနပုဒ္မွေအာင္
တုတ္ (ယာေတာကသာေဗ်ာႏွင့္အမ်ိဴးမေတာ္ပါ)မိတ္ေဆြမ်ားထံနုတ္ခြန္းဆက္
သလိုက္ပါသည္။ေကာင္းေပစြ ေကာင္းေပစြ(စိတ္ညစ္ဖို ့)……..သာဓု၊သာဓု၊
Myanmar terminates some publications for failure to register
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/03/content_10596921.htm
www.chinaview.cn 2009-01-03 13:59:35 Print
YANGON, Jan. 3 (Xinhua) -- The Myanmar Information Ministry hasterminated some 11 journals and 20 magazines, the local weekly Voice journal reported Saturday, quoting the Central Press Scrutiny and Registration Board.
The 11 journals, revoked from publication for failure to apply for renewal of registration, included Thet Thant Yaung, Viva Sports, Aung Nameik, Film News, International Crimes, Maha, Bulletin, Trend, Aung Su Youth, Music World and Company Directory.
According to statistics, there are over 250 private magazines and 200 journals being sold in the domestic markets.
Among the journals granted over the past few years, sports journals dominated in number, followed by news journals which carry domestic and international news, news related to arts, children, health and crime.
The number of journals covering domestic news has grown over the past decade in Myanmar, thanks to market demand and the emergence of more such journals also contributes to the development of journalism, readers said.
The Information Ministry took over the duties of the press scrutiny and registration from the Ministry of Home Affairs in February 2005, granting the publication and distribution of journals and magazines as long as they conforms to the prescribed policy.
Other official statistics show that there were a total of over 5,000 printing houses and 759 publishers in Myanmar. More than 9,700 titles of books on various topics were also published.
Editor: Yao
US backs democracy in Myanmar ahead of anniversary
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g6s37TOjL-8x8R7UGQjwykJwNNVQ
WASHINGTON (AFP) — The United States on Friday highlighted its support for efforts to establish democracy in military-run Myanmar, ahead of the country's 61st anniversary of independence.
State Department spokesman Sean McCormack alluded to the human rights crackdown by the military junta that has been in power since 1962, as he commemorated the anniversary of independence from Britain on January 4, 1948.
"We wish to express our warmest wishes to the people of Burma on this occasion," McCormack said in a statement, referring to the country's name before the junta changed it to Myanmar in 1989.
"As we reflect on Burma's independence struggle, led by General Aung San, we are reminded of our own history," the statement said, alluding to the US drive for independence from Britain in the 18th century.
"We support the peaceful efforts of people everywhere to exercise freely their universal human rights," he said.
"We stand with the Burmese people today in honoring Aung San's vision for an independent, peaceful, and democratic Burma and look forward to the day when Burma's citizens will be able to enjoy the fruits of freedom and democracy," he said.
"We earnestly hope that day will come soon," according to McCormack's statement.
Massive protests in 2007, sparked initially by fuel-hikes and involving tens of thousands of people, were eventually crushed by the military. At least 31 people were killed, according to the United Nations.
2010 will not be the End of Everything-BURMA DIGEST
http://burmadigest.info/2009/01/02/2010-will-not-be-the-end-of-everything/
Jan 2nd, 2009
This year, this very new year, 2009 is a critical year before the ultimate year of 2010 comes along.
The military regime wants to manage a complete fatal blow to the pro-democracy movement in 2010. They hope that their planned self-declaration of victory in 2010 elections will be the end of everything. The military strongmen through their puppet civilian government will rule Burma happily ever after, they hope.
General Than Shwe’s new skin
2090 is a critical year for the regime to get everything done as far as possible in their power to clear the field for 2010 elections. They know they cannot go on for ever as an illegitimate de-facto military regime; they are virtually the one and the only remaining military government in the twenty-first century world.
Even the Chinese Communist government is showing more respect for democracy and Human-rights than the Burmese military regime does. China has change of Presidents every eight years, and they have regular local elections; and, even the internet users in China have more freedom than those in Burma. And response by Chinese government to natural disasters in their country is clearly better than that by the Burmese military regime. And with the rapidly growing economy, Chinese people can at least enjoy economic prosperity despite the lack of political freedom. If the saying is true that “Something is better than nothing”, people of China are faring far better than people of Burma, although both countries are ruled by authoritarian governments.
So, Burmese regime knows that they MUST change, at least their skin. But, they cannot give up their power. Senior General Than Shwe, the current Burmese military Supremo, knows too well what happens when a military strongman lose his power in Burma, as he himself has crafted the ugly fates for his predecessors, General Ne Win (who died under house-arrest while many of his favoured family members are facing death sentences) and General Saw Maung (who allegedly died as a wretched madman). Than Shwe family is living like a Royal family in Burma, and they are unimaginably rich with billions of dollars stashed away in their secret bank-accounts in foreign banks. Than Shwe has frequently ranked as top human-rights abuser in various international indexes; and attempts are afoot to try to get him indicted at International Criminal Court, albeit still a long way to go. As Than Shwe cannot give up power_ his power is the only reliable protection for his and his family’ fortunes_ and cannot keep power as the world’s only remaining military ruler, he will make a complete change in the appearances. There is NO alternative.
So, the regime will make sure that Burma gets a constitution passed in a referendum and a civilian government elected in an election, but at the same time keeping power effectively in military’s hands. Now, they have already got a pro-military constitution which gives 25% of seats in the parliament to the unelected hand-picked military officers and allows the military to remain as a totally independent state within the State and also grants immunity to the de-facto military regime for all the crimes they have committed previously. And the constitution was passed in a referendum which was held amidst the chaos of Cyclone Nargis disaster which killed more than 100,000 people. And the regime just conveniently declared that their pro-military constitution got an illogical approval figure of more than 95% in the referendum! One cannot help but remember that Saddam Hussein used to get more than 95% votes in his elections.
Now, the regime is preparing the field for the 2010 elections. All pro-democracy activists who count have now been safely locked away behind bars serving 60-80 years prison sentences. Even their lawyers have been jailed, effectively making it very difficult for them to get any more legal help for their appeals.
Opposition Blues
While the regime is gaining momentum along their roadmap towards a fake democracy in Burma, the opposition groups are in TOTAL disarray now.
The National League for Democracy, the main pro-democracy party founded by people’s leader Aung San Suu Kyi, is suffering from an identity crisis and a sticky dilemma. With Aung San Suu Kyi under a seemingly endless house-arrest and almost all other strong activists in jail, the party is left in the care of a group of elderly caretaker leaders (some of them almost 90 years old now!) who were themselves military generals before they were sacked from the army by the former military strongman General Ne Win. For a long time serious discontent has been brewing up among younger generation party activists regarding their elderly leaders’ lack of action and apparent indecision. In earlier 2008 it appeared that the party was going to boycott the constitutional referendum, but the leaders decided just shortly before the referendum to take part and to make a “Vote NO” campaign; however, by then, it has already become too late for the grass-root followers of the party to effectively launch a “Vote NO” campaign against the powerful and ruthless military machinery hell-bent on getting a “YES” vote for their pro-military constitution. Now there is a talk about changing the old-guard of the party with newer generations. With or without a new leadership, the party still faces another indecisive situation concerning 2010 elections. Previously it was supposed to be a total boycott on the elections, but later it appeared the party would take part if regime agrees to make some roll backs on the pro-military constitution, and very recently it has just become that the leadership is still considering the pros and cons of taking part in the election and no decision has yet been made. One just cannot help feeling a déjà vu.
And there is a rift between the Washington-based exile/rival pro-democracy government, aka National Coalition Government of Union of Burma NCGUB, and Thai-Burma border based National Council of Union of Burma NCUB. Although the middle “G” is the only difference in the abbreviations of their names, the two leading exile organizations lately seem to be having different opinions on almost everything. They could not agree on the credential challenge against military regime at the UN General Assembly, they could not agree on the extension of the existing exile government, and their surrogates are shooting ugly character-killing accusations against each other through internet forums, blogs and mail groups. And now the NCUB has made it clear in their 2009 New Year statement that they will form a new exile government, apparently with or without agreement from the existing exile government NCGUB. But one question remaining is, with what kind of mandate the new exile government(s) is(are) to be formed.
A culture of split, rift and disunity is nowadays seen, sadly, not just among the elite exile leaders, but it is also rampant through out the entire rank and file of the entire exile movement. The once esteemed leading student activists in exile now seem to have given up their fight against military regime and concentrating most of their energies on mud-slinging and smearing campaigns against each other on the internet, sometimes stooping as low as distributing slur emails using fake identities or creating blogs which are dedicated for insulting each other but for nothing else. The exile branch in Malaysia of Burma’s National League for Democracy is having a noxious in-fighting between its Kuala Lumpur-based office and its Penang-based office, accusing each other of funds misappropriation and collaboration with military regime. The dissidents in Japan are accusing each other of facilitating fake asylum claims. This is not an exhaustive list, just a few examples to reflect the current situation of internal mess and tangles.
Global downturn
The strongest supporter on Burmese pro-democracy movement, the USA, is going to get a more diplomatic and less warrior-like new administration very soon. The US economy is facing the worse crisis in almost a century. And the mighty American military is bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The Europe is also suffering from a similarly bad credit crunch. Moreover, Europe has never been keen on getting tough on Burmese military regime; as long as the Total Oil Company is investing in Burma, EU’s leading member, the French, will just talk tough on every possible occasion, only to take the lime light, but actually avoiding any tough action or sanctions on the military regime of Burma.
UN Special Envoy has lost virtually all his credibility because of his failure to be impartial, but instead accommodating too much to the military generals. He is now saying that the international community should give money to Burmese military generals in the form of developmental aids to buy freedom of political prisoners from regime’s prisons. If his plans ever come to fruition, it will just encourage the regime to create more and more political prisoners to get more and more ransom money from the international community.
Precedence predicts
Like the maggots which thrive in rubbish and filth, military regime strives better amidst chaos. It enjoyed holding a constitutional referendum while almost the entire lower half of the country was submerged in post-cyclone floods and commotions. Chaotic conditions give them better chance to practise their tricks of vote-rigging and voter-intimidation to get their desired results in referendum and elections. The international community’s economic turmoil, the confusion inside Burma’s National League for Democracy and the unruliness among Burmese exiles will just give the military regime an ideal chance in 2009 to unleash all their hoax and scam and deception and dirty tricks to lay the grounds for a coalition of pro-regime pro-military parties to win an unnatural near 100% landslide in 2010 elections.
Possible Outcome
So taking everything into consideration, and barring a miracle, there is very little to NIL chance of the opposition turning the tide in 2009 and stopping the regime in the tracts along their roadmap towards a puppet democracy system in Burma.
After declaring victory in 2010 elections the regime may take a while before making an ultimate change of shape and becoming a civilian government. They need to craft a smooth transition, i.e., an apparent transfer of virtual power but not the actual transfer of real power. Than Shwe may become the civilian President himself leaving a trusted subordinate as the military commander-in-chief, or he may remain as military commander-in-chief himself while installing a faithful surrogate as the civilian President.
Probably, the new form of administration, whatever it might be, may become up and running in 2011.
Regime’s hope for an end-game
Regime hopes that when a civilian administration is up and running after 2010 elections, the international community will forget all about the past, also ignore all the deficiencies of the new civilian administration, and start doing business with Burma. Sanctions will be lifted, visa-bans will be removed, investments will flow in, World Bank will come back will new loan offers, the opposition will become dead and buried, international community will lost their interest in any remnants of the pro-democracy movement; Than Shwe dynasty will rule on for ever in Burma, albeit in a new form of incarnation which is more acceptable to international taste.
The End is also the Beginning
In the endless cycles of history, an end is simultaneously a new beginning.
Of course, there is very little logical argument left to say that the regime has not won the struggle which started with the 8888 people-power uprising and reaching the peak in the pro-democracy parties’ landslide victory in 1990 elections.
Even now the UN, the EU, many Western governments, all donor agencies and NGOs are charting their plots to resume business fully with the new administration, which ever form it may take, after 2010 elections in Burma. In the eyes of many international governments and organizations, the significance of the prodemocracy movement and the opposition groups is rapidly fading and diminishing. When the World fully re-engages with whatever administration in Burma after 2010, the opposition groups may no longer play any role, sadly, in the World’s business plans with Burma.
But all is not lost yet for the opposition groups. They can, and should, still play a part in the affairs of post-2010 Burma. How?
There is a proverbial aphorism in Burma that ‘all the peas coming from the same basket tend to be of the same quality and have the same flaws’. The new administration in post-2010 Burma, a direct descendant from the world top human right abuser military regime, will bear the same traits of corruption, nepotism, ineptitude, disrespect to human rights, oppression on basic freedoms, indifference to people’s sufferings and the intolerance to any form of dissent or criticism; and above all else, the abhorrent army will still be as powerful as ever, as arrogant as ever and may even remain above the law as ever.
So starting from 2011, as soon as the new administration comes into force, the opposition’s duty will be to monitor the new administration’s actions, and to make a detail list of its failures and wrongdoings. And once a good thorough list of the new administration’s evils and wrongdoings has been comprehensively complied, the opposition may launch a new movement against the new but equally shoddy and depraved administration.
The international community may also need to try to learn a lesson from how former strongman Ne Win tricked the people of Burma and the world by transferring power from him (General Ne Win) to himself (President Mr Ne Win) forming a fake civilian government consisting solely of ex-military officers, going on stealing all the wealth from Burma and transforming her from a richest country in South east Asia to a poorest country in the world within about 30 years of his rule in various different shapes and forms (1958-1988).
So, a word of humble advice to the opposition is - not to look back and regret on the last 20 years’ innumerable missed opportunities, but to look beyond 2010 and start plotting and planning on how to raise a fresh new movement to hold the post-2010 administration accountable. Of course, a new movement will need new spirits, new generation leaders and activists, new approaches and new visions.
- by Thuria Tayza
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