Joshua Kurlantzick
September 15, 2008
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So much for the Asian century. The Thais are bickering with themselves, and when they're done doing that, they'll bicker with the Cambodians - again. China may be Japan's biggest trading partner, but they hate each other anyway. And Malaysia and Indonesia are two countries divided by the same language.
I've spent a lot of time in Asia and the place is a geopolitical mess. Hogtied by nationalism and narrow self-interest, the countries of the East won't be banding together to replace the West as the seat of global power anytime soon.
An Asian version of the European Union is not out of reach, but the continent battles a kind of split personality. Many cultural, economic and political trends suggest Asian nations are more integrated. But a virulent nationalism is spreading that feeds on reinterpreted or imaginary history to stir up hatred and push small-minded agendas.
Elites in Asia understand the benefits of integration, and businesses and officials are promoting the trend. Chinese yearly trade with the 10 South-East Asian nations is likely to surpass $US200 billion ($243 billion) by 2010, while the expansion of satellite television, Asian airlines and regional hiring by Asian conglomerates mean businesspeople watch the same news and cool their heels together at cocktail parties and pan-Asian business summits. Fads that start in Tokyo or Seoul, such as drinking red wine or dying hair blond, sweep through the region.
Despite all that love, most of the region's multilateral institutions do little more than meet for the sake of meeting, and calls to nationalism and an obsession with sovereignty are drowning out calls for co-operation.
The passage of time since World War II, when nationalism led to catastrophe, has allowed politicians to wield it more freely for short-term gain. "The Chinese are ignorant, so they are overjoyed," the Tokyo governor, Shintaro Ishihara, quipped after China launched a manned spaceship in 2003. "That [spacecraft] was an outdated one. If Japan wanted to do it, we could do it in one year."
This sort of nationalism is not the stuff of a few firebrands. Across the continent populist politicians have scrubbed school textbooks, whether to minimise Japan's atrocities in South Korea and China during World War II, or to erase the memory of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia - perhaps because the Prime Minister, Hun Sen, was an officer in the genocidal regime before he turned against it.
In Cambodia I meet teenagers who know practically nothing about what happened in their country in the 1970s. China, too, has whitewashed the memory of the Tiananmen Square crackdown of June 4, 1989. When a Frontline documentary crew went to Beijing University a few years ago and showed students the iconic 1989 photograph of the man who stopped a tank in its tracks, no one recognised it.
The internet allows Asian nationalists to air their vitriol unchecked. On Chinese online bulletin boards such as the "Strong Nation Forum," which is run by the People's Daily, respondents ridicule Chinese leaders for compromising on issues such as relations with neighbouring countries or Tibet or Taiwan.
In Japan the blogosphere helped spark sales of the manga comic book Hating the Korean Wave. And in Indonesia online writers helped fuel anger at Malaysia for the use of a supposedly Indonesian jingle in a tourism campaign, and for the mistreatment of an Indonesian karate referee. These are petty grievances, but the internet amplifies even the smallest outbursts, and reactions can be fierce.
Whenever I visit Asia, I meet young people who detest neighbours they barely know. "The Thais, all they care about is money, nothing else," one Burmese acquaintance told me in Rangoon, despite never having been to Thailand. In one study taken last year by a leading Japanese non-governmental organisation, two-thirds of the Chinese polled said they had either a "very bad" or "relatively bad" impression of Japan.
Even countries with little history of animosity can be swept into a rage by the new nationalists. In 2006 thousands of Thais marched to the Singapore embassy in Bangkok to protest against the purchase of a telecommunications giant by a Singapore state investment company, leaving Singaporean diplomats flat-footed.
An entire industry has developed around predictions that the Asian century will replace the American one. And maybe it will - a few centuries from now.
Joshua Kurlantzick is a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a fellow at the Pacific Council on International Policy. This is an edited version of an article which first appeared in The Washington Post.
This story was found at: http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2008/09/14/1221330646507.html
Monday, September 15, 2008
The Asian century still a long way off
No US-Asean free trade with Burma present
http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=123759
Singapore (dpa) - Current political conditions in Burma make a free-trade deal between the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations impossible in the near term, US Trade Representative Susan Schwab said.
The relationship "can't be business as usual," she said as Asean readied for Tuesday's signing of a landmark charter giving the 40-year-old regional grouping legal status and committing the members to pursuing human rights, democracy and a blueprint for economic integration by 2015.
Asean leaders recognize that the bloc's reputation and credibility have been undermined by the situation in military-ruled Burma, where troops fired on peaceful protesters in September, killing at least 15.
Schwab, who is on a two-day visit to Singapore, met Monday with economic ministers to discuss progress made under the US-Asean Trade and Investment Framework Arrangement, signed a year ago.
"The issue of Burma did come up, and I expressed our concern," she told reporters. "Asean has special responsibility when it comes to the situation in Burma."
Despite the US Senate's unanimous vote Friday, urging Asean to suspend Burma until the regime shows respect for human rights, Asean is dealing with the issue within the "family."
Asean leaders have called off a planned summit briefing by UN Special envoy Ibrahim Gambari, scheduled for Wednesday, after Burma objected.
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, in the city-state's capacity as Asean chairman, said Burma made it clear that it prefers to deal directly with the United Nations, and Asean leaders respect its wishes.
Singapore had invited Gambari to brief Asean leaders and their counterparts from China, India, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
The US has a free-trade agreement with Singapore. It also has trade and investment framework arrangements (TIFA) with Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia.
Ten-member Asean signed a TIFA deal in August 2006, regarded as a precursor to liberalizing trade.
"The fact that we have a TIFA with Asean means we have the potential for creating the building blocks down the road," Schwab said.
Asean includes Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand and Burma.
Intell: India targeting China's oil supplies
dia has constructed a naval base within striking distance of the Straits of Malacca, which serves as a conduit for China's imported oil.
http://bdosintmonitors.blogspot.com/2008/09/intell-india-targeting-chinas-oil.html
Sunday, 14 September 2008
Intell: India targeting China's oil supplies
India's military planners are eyeing a crucial junction of the world which serves as the conduit for 80 per cent of China's imported oil.
By David Blair in New Delhi
India has constructed a naval base within striking distance of the Straits of Malacca, which serves as a conduit for China's imported oil.
The Straits of Malacca, where the Indian Ocean joins the Pacific, is seen as China's Achilles heel. These shipping lanes, vital for Beijing's energy supplies, could be the setting for any future confrontation between India and China.
The two giant powers are longstanding rivals, who share a disputed 2,100-mile border and are waging a diplomatic struggle for influence in Asia. They fought a border war in 1962, which ended in victory for China and left Beijing in control of 16,500 square miles of territory claimed by India.
Both countries are now increasing their defence budgets, with India's military spending rising by an average of 18 per cent in each of the last three years and now exceeding £15 billion.
If these tensions were ever to boil over into war once again, India would probably exploit a crucial advantage. Its navy, which eventually plans to deploy three aircraft carriers and two nuclear-powered attack submarines, would probably seek to close the Straits of Malacca to Chinese shipping. By cutting off the supply of oil, this could cripple China and prove the decisive move in any conflict.
"The most likely flashpoint would be along the border, but ultimately the decision in any war would be on the ocean," said Sheru Thapliyal, a retired Indian general in New Delhi who once commanded a division on the frontier with China.
"The Indian Ocean is where we could use our advantage to the maximum. If you want to choke China, the only way you can choke China is by using naval power."
With China's key vulnerability in mind, India has constructed a naval base within striking distance of the Straits of Malacca at Port Blair on the Andaman Islands. China has countered by installing military facilities of its own, complete with electronic monitoring and eavesdropping devices, on the nearby Coco Islands. These specks of land belong to Burma, a longstanding ally of China.
Beijing is now taking other steps to address what President Hu Jintao has called the country's "Malacca dilemma". With hugely ambitious infrastructure projects, China hopes to bypass the Straits of Malacca and eventually end its dependence on this vulnerable waterway for energy supplies.
On India's western flank, China is helping to build a new port in the Pakistani town of Gwadar. Thrust together by their shared rivalry with India, Pakistan and China are old allies.
Gwadar could eventually provide a base for Chinese warships. Or it may be used as the starting point for a pipeline travelling through Pakistan and carrying oil and gas into China itself. If so, Beijing could import energy from Africa and the Middle East using this route, bypassing the Straits of Malacca.
The same rationale may explain China's actions on India's eastern flank. A new port and pipeline terminal are being constructed at Kyauk Phyu on Burma's island of Ramree. This will be the starting point for a 900-mile pipeline, able to carry oil directly to Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province in southern China.
"They know that we could attempt to choke them completely and that's why they want these ports," said Vijay Kapoor, a retired general in New Delhi and former commandant of the Indian Army War College. "Their aim in all of this is to prevent us from being able to choke them."
China's moves are being closely watched in India, where the military establishment fears that Beijing's plans in Pakistan and Burma amount to a deliberate strategy of "encirclement". If China's navy acquires permanent bases in the Indian Ocean, tension is likely to grow.
But Indian diplomats tend to believe these fears are exaggerated. They believe that China is motivated by nothing more than securing its economic boom and taking normal precautions against unforeseeable events.
Link
at Sunday, September 14, 2008
Sea border talks start today after 28 years
Energy-rich Bay of Bengal makes Dhaka-Delhi discussion crucial
Star Report
In a context of higher prospect of finding oil and gas in the Bay of Bengal, expert delegations of Bangladesh and India begin a three-day meeting in the city today to settle unresolved maritime boundary issues.
Earlier, Bangladesh and India sat on the same issue in 1982 only to have some primary talks.
Bangladesh is sharing the Bay with India and Myanmar but has not demarcated the sea territory with them which is creating disputes mainly over offshore search of oil and gas.
None of the countries has yet to claim about their marine boundaries to the United Nations.
Back in June, New Delhi and Yangoon strongly opposed Bangladesh's offshore block bidding for exploration of oil and gas.
Previously, Dhaka raised objections when India and Myanmar floated international tender for searching offshore in 2006 accusing them of overlapping Bangladesh territory but yet to get any reply from India.
Foreign Adviser Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury said in a press release yesterday, "The technical level talks are taking place after 28 years. We believe today both the governments are now deeply committed to strengthening their relations through resolutions of all outstanding issues."
A seven-member team led by Indian Rear Admiral BR Rao and the Bangladesh delegation led by Additional Foreign Secretary MAK Mahmud will discuss different technical issues until September 17.
The Bay of Bengal has become very important, especially after India's discovery of 100 trillion cubic feet gas in 2005-06 and Myanmar's discovery of 7 tcf gas at the same time. Besides, India also discovered oil.
The Bay in Bangladesh's territory that has not been tapped at all promises huge natural resources, experts say. The Daily Star reported in 2006 discovery of sedimentary rock oolite that promises of oil and gas there.
"Without a win-win negotiation, Bangladesh might not be able to tap its own resources in future while our neighbours might get to enjoy it all as they have made good progress in their demarcation jobs," an energy expert notes.
India and Myanmar need to finish the maritime demarcation with Bangladesh shortly as they are set to file their claim to the UN on June 29 and May 21 next year respectively.
Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Bangladesh also has to file its claim within July 27, 2011.
Bangladesh has yet to make any progress in making its papers with proper boundary survey due to lack of experience, skilled manpower and equipment. The government is planning to take help from the US, the UK and Australia to do it, sources in the foreign ministry said.
In 2004, the foreign ministry formed a committee with members from Petrobangla, Geological Survey of Bangladesh, the Navy, Spaarso, Inland Water Transport Authority and Surveyor of Bangladesh. The purpose of this committee was to recommend how to mark the deep-sea territory fulfilling requirements of the UN and as per the law of the sea.
However, the committee became dysfunctional within a year, while its foreign ministry members were busy making foreign trips.
International law allows each country to have 200 nautical miles from its coast to the sea to enjoy rights. However, this is a tricky matter as the coasts of India and Bangladesh and Myanmar follow a curve, which implies overlapping of territory.
As per the international practices, in such a case, the neighbours should inform each other and reach a mutual understanding before exploring such areas.
BANGLADESH STANDPOINT
A source says Bangladesh will remain firm on getting equitable share in the Bay of Bengal waters. An official said Dhaka insisted on the determination of the staring point, which is crucial for registering with the UN a valid on common territories.
The Bangladesh delegation will emphasise demarcating maritime boundary, a joint inspection for the delimitation of maritime boundary.
Earlier, foreign ministry officials held two rounds of talks in April and September with Myanmar and the discussions yielded 'good results' regarding common usage of the Naf river and estuary, official sources said.
But progress in resolving the sea boundary is still far to go as Myanmar is asking for eco-distance system in East to West boundary, while Bangladesh is asking to demarcate in equity basis North to South.
Another round of talks may take place with Myanmar in next November.
OIL AND GAS STAKES
Oil and gas exploration in the Bay is a very recent phenomenon. Both India and Myanmar discovered gas in the Bay between 2005 and 2007.
While Myanmar's activities were limited and resulted in a discovery of 7 trillion cubic feet of gas in 2006, India's activities were intensive resulting in a discovery of 100 tcf gas and two billion barrels of oil in place.
India has held off-shore block bids and has many oil companies working in the Bay.
The Indian press reports that two main basins in the Bay -- Krishna-Godavari and Mahanadi -- have shown a potential of nearly 18 billion barrels of oil equivalent gas in place. While official sources quote a figure of 100 tcf for gas reserves in the region, unofficial estimates peg the reserves at 200 TCF.
In Bangladesh on May 7, seven oil and gas companies submitted their bids in 15 offshore blocks out of a total 28. The response was lukewarm as some international oil lobbies have reportedly campaigned against the Bangladesh bid.
With some offers overlapping different blocks, six oil companies proposed to invest $1.6 billion. Each of the blocks has exploration area of between 3,000 square kilometres (sqkm) to 7,000sqkm.
However, Bangladesh might ultimately sign a contract with only two companies.
By June, both India and Myanmar have raised objection about this bid.
Myanmar fish export to Middle-East doubles
YANGON (Xinhua): Myanmar freshwater fish export to Middle-East countries has doubled in the past three years, the local weekly journal Flower News reported Monday.
With most of the freshwater fish export to such Middle-East countries as Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, United Arab Emirate and Saudi Arabia, the export figures reached 43,064 tons in the fiscal year of 2007-08 which ended in March, up from 2004-05's 26,409 tons, the Fishery Department was quoted as saying.
The export earning from the region amounted to 50.99 million U. S. dollars in 2007-08, up from 29.5 million dollars in 2004-05.
Myanmar has been making increased efforts to penetrate the Middle-East market with the marine products using Kuwait as a transit point.
To boost its marine product exports to the region, Myanmar has coordinated with a Kuwaiti economic delegation who accompanied Prime Minister Sheik Nasser Al-Mohammed Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah in the latter's August visit to Myanmar.
Of the marine product exports to the Middle-East, Kuwait accounted for 27,895 tons alone with 30.63 million dollars' proceeds. Official statistics show that in 2007-08, Myanmar exported 352, 652 tons of marine products, gaining 561 million dollars, up from 2006-07's 234 million dollars.
The fishery authorities have projected to raise the export earning to 850 million dollars in the present fiscal year of 2008- 09.
China topped Myanmar's marine export countries, followed by Thailand, Japan and Singapore. Myanmar's fishery sector stood the fourth largest contributor to the gross domestic product and also the fourth largest source of foreign exchange earning in the past five years.
Meanwhile, Myanmar is cooperating with a regional organization of the Southeast Asia Fisheries Development Center (SEAFDEC) in conducting survey of marine resources in the country's waters, focusing species with commercial potential.
With a long coastline of over 2,800 kilometers and a total area of 500,000 hectares of swamps along the coast, the country has an estimated sustainable yield of marine products at over one million tons a year.
Suu Kyi 'Malnourished' After Refusing Food Supplies - Lawyer
YANGON (AFP)--Myanmar's detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is malnourished after refusing most food supplies for four weeks, her lawyer said Monday after meeting her doctor.
"Although Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was not on a hunger strike, she was eating little because she hasn't accepted food supplies since Aug. 16," her lawyer Kyi Win said, using an honorific before her name.
"Recently she has become malnourished. After she met with her doctor yesterday, she is eating more nutritiously," he said.
Her doctor Tin Myo Win spent four-and-a-half hours Sunday at Aung San Suu Kyi's lakeside home, where she has been confined for most of the past 19 years, but he refused to give details on her health.
Kyi Win said the 63-year-old Nobel Peace Prize winner wasn't staging a hunger strike but had stopped accepting her daily rations from the military regime to demand greater rights for Myanmar's people.
She has been surviving the last month mainly on small stocks of food that she had in her home, Kyi Win added.
"The reason for not accepting food like this was not only for her but to demand the prevalence of law and order in the country and to win the rights that all people should be granted," he said.
Nyan Win, spokesman for Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, or NLD, party, said she had agreed to start accepting food supplies from Monday but he couldn't say if the rations already had been delivered.
"She will accept her food supplies from today," Nyan Win said.
Neither the lawyer nor the spokesman could confirm if she had been granted any concessions from the regime, such as permission to receive mail or for her two maids to move freely in and out of the house.
Kyi Win said Friday he had held "positive" talks with the government on relaxing the terms of her confinement so that she could receive mail and monthly visits from her doctor.
He also has been allowed to meet her to discuss a legal appeal of her detention.
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