News & Articles on Burma-Monday, 16 May, 2011

News & Articles on Burma
Monday, 16 May, 2011
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Myanmar announces limited cut to jail terms
Myanmar president announces clemency for prisoners
Quintana to Meet Burmese Exile Groups
Australia and Thailand Pressure Burma on Rights Record
Jailed MPs, monks lobby home minister
Imprisoned Shan army leader in need of urgent health treatment
Internet cafes ban CDs, USB drives
China to Be Thein Sein's First State Visit
Burma's Leadership Change to Nowhere
Thai FM says Burma unfit for ASEAN chair
True News Journal Suspended for Two Weeks
Flawed math behind Myanmar 'democracy'
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May 16, 2011
Myanmar announces limited cut to jail terms

YANGON - MYANMAR'S military-backed government announced a limited amnesty on Monday by reducing all current prisoners' sentences by one year.

The news will come as a disappointment to those calling for the release of political prisoners, after an official said earlier this month that the government was preparing to grant an amnesty to some people in jail.

A message by President Thein Sein, read out on state TV news on Monday, said those who faced the death penalty would have their sentences reduced to life imprisonment.

'Prisoners will get amnesty on humanitarian grounds and through sympathy for their families,' said the announcement.

There are more than 2,200 political prisoners in Myanmar, according to rights group Amnesty International, being held under vague laws frequently used to criminalise peaceful political activists.

Many of them face double-digit jail sentences. -- AFP http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/SEAsia/Story/STIStory_669277.html
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Myanmar president announces clemency for prisoners

YANGON, Myanmar (AP) -- Myanmar's new president has announced a clemency program for prisoners, but its terms are limited and its scope is unclear.

State television and radio announced Monday that President Thein Sein signed a "general amnesty" order commuting death sentences to life imprisonment and cutting one year from convicts' prison terms.

The announcement did not say how many prisoners are covered by the order or if any of the country's more than 2,000 political prisoners will be released.

Nyan Win, a spokesman for democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's political group, said the order would not help political prisoners because many are serving very long sentences.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_MYANMAR_PRISONERS?SECTION=HOME&SITE=AP&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
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Quintana to Meet Burmese Exile Groups
By SAI ZOM HSENG Monday, May 16, 2011

The United Nations Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Burma, Tomás Ojea Quintana, arrives in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand, on Monday to meet Burmese NGOs and human rights groups in exile.

Aung Myo Min, the director of the Human Rights Education Institute of Burma (HREIB), said that the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in Bangkok organized a meeting with the rights groups for May 19 when some 50 representatives of various organizations will meet Quintana.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy on Monday, Aung Myo Min said, “We are going to discuss five main issues at the meeting—political prisoners; environment; education; accountability to human rights violations; and the transition to democracy.”

The issues on the agenda are to be presented individually by different organizations. The political prisoners issue will be presented by the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners-Burma; human rights by the Karen Human Rights Group; environment by the Karen Environmental and Social Action Network; the right to education by HREIB; and the transition to democracy by the Interfaith Council for Peace and Justice.

Burma's military regime has refused to issue a visa to Quintana since his trip to Burma in February 2010. During that visit, he met political prisoners and several leaders from the National League for Democracy (NLD). Although he requested permission to meet Aung San Suu Kyi while she was under house arrest, he was refused access by the military junta.

During his last visit, the UN envoy asked the military regime: to review its domestic laws which limit basic human rights; to release all political prisoners and detainees before the election; to educate the armed forces about human rights; and to ensure an independent judicial system.

Quintana recently applied for a visa from Burma's new government, which is led by President Thein Sein, a former prime minister under the military regime. To date, Naypyidaw has not responded to the envoy's request.

Observers say the military junta's angst toward Quintana was fueled by the Argentine's recommendation that the UN General Assembly establish a commission of inquiry to investigate human rights violations in Burma under the military junta.

Quintana submitted a report concerning the human rights situation in Burma at a conference in March. In the report, he urged the new government to open an inquiry into the charges and to initiate a policy of transparency. http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=21298
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Australia and Thailand Pressure Burma on Rights Record
Bangkok | Ron Corben May 15, 2011

Activists from the Free Burma Coalition holding masks of Burmese democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi at a rally in front of the Burmese Embassy in Manila in November 2010.

Australia and Thailand have called for Burma to raise its human rights record, including the release of all political prisoners, before taking up the chair of the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations in 2014.

Earlier this month, Laos was reported to have agreed to “swap” with Burma the chairmanship of ASEAN in 2014. Laos will chair in 2012.

The call came during weekend talks between Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd and his Thai counterpart Kasit Piromya in the Thai capital, Bangkok.

Burma had foregone its right to chair ASEAN in 2005 amid international pressure over its human rights record. Burma now points to political reforms since then, including general elections last year and the formation of a new parliament together with the release of opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, from house arrest last year.

But human rights groups argue the parliament is largely controlled by the military and military backed parties, while more than 2,000 political prisoners remain in jails throughout the country and attacks on ethnic communities continue.

The move by Burma to host ASEAN in 2014 is opening divisions within the organization.

Australia’s Rudd says Burma needs to make more progress before considering the ASEAN chairmanship.

“Our view as Australia is that we would want to see continued and sustained improvements in human rights and democracy in Burma. We in the past have welcomed the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, we have deep concerns about the continued detention of some 2,000 political prisoners.”

Rudd also pointed to issues such as the 110,000 Burmese living in refugee camps in western Thailand with ‘thousands’ more internally displaced in Burma due to fighting between ethnic groups and Burma’s army.

Indonesia Foreign Minister Marty Natelagawa, the current chairman of ASEAN, is due to visit Burma to assess its readiness to host the ASEAN meeting in 2014.

Thai Foreign Minister Kasit says an assessment has to include progress by Burma, also known as Myanmar, since the elections and Burma’s obligation under the ASEAN charter which includes recognition of human rights. Kasit says there remain outstanding issues.

“Especially the release of all the remaining political prisoners, the general overall freedom or liberalization of the whole political process as well as the long awaited dialogue between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi on behalf of the opposition with the newly installed government of Myanmar as part of the whole national reconciliation process and national building.”

Human rights groups welcomed the calls by Australia and Thailand for political reforms in Burma. Debbie Stothard is spokeswoman for the rights group Alternative ASEAN Network.

“Burma should not be allowed to chair ASEAN until it has engaged in genuine reform and that means release of all political prisoners and a cessation of war against all ethnic nationality communities.”

Stothard says if Burma took up the chair of ASEAN in 2014 without further reforms, key dialogue partner countries, that include Australia, Canada, the European Union and Japan as well as the United States, may boycott the meetings. http://www.voanews.com/english/news/and-Thailand-Pressure-Burma-on-Rights-Record--121859134.html
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Jailed MPs, monks lobby home minister
By SHWE AUNG
Published: 16 May 2011

Four political prisoners in the remote Kale jail have addressed a letter to Burma’s home affairs minister, U Ko Ko, in which they claim they are being denied adequate healthcare, food and the freedom to communicate with their families.

Among the four is Ashin Gambira, who is serving a 63-year sentence for his pivotal role in the September 2007 uprising. His sister, Khin Thu Htay, who visited him on 14 May, said that the letter was sent on behalf of political prisoners and regular prisoners who “vowed to go on hunger strike if there is no response by 31 May”.

“There are over 16 other [political prisoners] in other wards [in Kale] and apparently they will also send out a letter today,” she added.

Nyi Pu, who was elected in 1990 to the People’s Parliament before being sentenced to 15 years, is also among the signatories. In September last year he was reported to be in poor health after not receiving help for a condition that lowers the level of potassium in the blood.

Among the other would-be recipients of the letter, which also asks for prisoners to be allowed reading books, radio and satellite television, will be President Thein Sein and the three vice-presidents, as well as the UN Human Rights Commission. Thein Sein has suggested that a prisoner amnesty is on the cards, but concrete details have not been given.

Ashin Gambira also reported that a Political Prisoners’ Union has been formed and will “work to form a regular Prisoners’ Union,” according to his sister. Previous demands he made for former junta chief Than Shwe to visit him in prison and begin dialogue were met with heavy treatment by authorities, who filled his mouth with a cloth, taped him up and repeatedly beat him.

Burma is estimated to have around 200,000 prisoners in 43 jails across the country. The Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners-Burma (AAPPB) claims there is only one doctor for every 8,000 prisoners. Demands for better healthcare are frequently made by rights groups but protests by inmates are rare, and can result in heavy-handed punishments.
http://www.dvb.no/news/jailed-mps-monks-lobby-home-minister/15676
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Imprisoned Shan army leader in need of urgent health treatment
Monday, 16 May 2011 16:14 Hseng Khio Fah

One of the most prominent Shan political prisoners Maj-Gen Hso Ten of Shan State Army (SSA) ‘North’ that is fighting against the Burma Army since March, is in urgent need to receive medical treatment due to his failing health condition, according to Sai Leik, spokesperson of the defunct Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD).

Sao Hso Ten (Photo: S.H.A.N.)
“We were informed that he is seriously suffering from high blood pressure with 180 up and 80 down when his family visited him,” said Sai Leik. “This time the authorities have reportedly made a medical checkup.”

Gen Hso Ten has been suffering from high blood pressure and an eye problem as he is almost losing his eyesight since 2008, three years after his arrest. But authorities have mentioned nothing about his health problems.

“We believe his eye problem will also be considered if his high blood pressure condition becomes normal,” Sai Leik added.

But he is expected to be treated only in Sittwe hospital while his family wants to bring him to Rangoon.

He had been serving a 106 year term since 2005 along with Khun Htun Oo, chairman of SNLD the second winning party in 1990 and 7 other Shan politicians for defamation of the state, association with illegal parties and conspiracy against the state.

But they were separately imprisoned. In August, Gen Hso had been transferred from Khamti prison in Kachin State to Rakhaing State’s Sittwe, western part of Burma and is also one of the remotest areas.

Among the said 8 leaders, two were also reportedly seriously in poor health. Khun Htun Oo is reported to have been suffering bladder distention, peptic ulcer and arthritis both hands and knees and legs swelling due to lack adequate exercise and regular medical treatment while another one Sai Myo Win Tun, who is serving 79 years imprison in proper Burma’s Myingyan prison, is reportedly suffering from mental illness.

The 9th detainee “Math” Than Myint died in prison in 2006. http://www.shanland.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3686:imprisoned-shan-army-leader-in-need-of-urgent-health-treatment&catid=93:general&Itemid=291
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Internet cafes ban CDs, USB drives
By SHWE AUNG and FRANCIS WADE
Published: 16 May 2011

Cyber café customers will no longer be allowed to use external drives in computers, according to a new regulation issued by Burma’s communications ministry that further tightens the clamp on the country’s growing population of internet users.

The ban on CDs, USB sticks and floppy drives comes two months after the government prohibited the use of services like Skype and VZOchat that allow internet users to make free or cheap international phone calls.

The justification then was that there had been a drop in income from overseas calls, although analysts claimed it more likely stemmed from the government’s inability to monitor VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) services, as these are known.

The external drive ban adds to a long list of regulations that govern ownership of internet cafes and that threaten heavy penalties if they are ignored. Already foreigners are required to hand over passport details, address and phone number before using an internet café computer, while café owners must submit monthly records of users’ internet usage data to the Myanma Post and Telecommunications Ministry.

At around two percent of the country, Burma’s internet penetration ranks among the lowest in the world, but numbers appear to be on the increase. Despite draconian laws surrounding the transfer of information, it has developed a thriving underground blogging community.

The evolution of social media in Burma, which is described by the Committee to Protect Journalists as both an ‘enemy of the internet’ and one of the world’s ‘worst countries in which to be a blogger’, appears to have concerned the government, particularly in light the internet-driven Arab uprisings this year.

A so-called upgrade of the country’s internet service shortly after the elections last year is claimed by media watchdogs to be used to reinforce surveillance and repression of national web users.

A joint report by Reporters Without Borders and Burma Media Association said that the Hantharwaddy National Gateway, Burma’s main link to the global internet, will be controlled exclusively by the military. Additionally, the introduction of an additional ISP means that the government can now shut off the civilian service during times of political unrest whilst keeping its own system online.
http://www.dvb.no/news/internet-cafes-ban-cds-usb-drives/15659
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China to Be Thein Sein's First State Visit
By WAI MOE Monday, May 16, 2011
Burmese President Thein Sein (right) shakes hands with China's Xu Caihou in Naypyidaw on May 13. (Photo : Xinhua)

Burma's new president, Thein Sein, is scheduled to visit China in late May, according to intelligence sources in Naypyidaw. The official visit will be his second overseas trip this month and his first state visit since being sworn in on March 30.

The Burmese delegation led by Thein Sein is looking to boost the Sino-Burmese bilateral relationship, the sources said. Beijing and Naypyidaw are likely to discuss security and strategic matters, including the possibility of Chinese naval ships docking at Kyaukpyu deep seaport in western Burma.

“Both sides are preparing for U Thein Sein’s state visit to China,” said a source who spoke on conditional of anonymity. “The date should be May 26. Commander-in-Chief Gen Min Aung Hlaing and other senior officials, such as Defense Minister Maj-Gen Hla Min, Home Minister Lt-Gen Ko Ko and Border Affairs Minister Maj-Gen Thein Htay will join the trip.”

Earlier this month, Thein Sein visited Indonesia to attend a regional summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Thein Sein’s trip to China comes shortly after a high-level Chinese military visit to Burma led by Gen Xu Caihou, the vice-chairman of China's Central Military Commission, which visited Burma from May 12 to 15.

Xu met Thein Sein and other top officials, including both vice-presidents, Tin Aung Myint Oo and Sai Mauk Kham, in Naypyidaw on May 13, according to Burmese state-run newspaper The New Light of Myanmar.

Before meeting with Thein Sein, the Chinese general met Min Aung Hlaing and other top Burmese generals in the capital. The Burmese state media reported that Min Aung Hlaing and Xu Caihou signed “[an] agreement and exchanged emblems of Armed Forces.”

China’s Xinhua reported that Xu “made a three-point proposal for the development of the two armed forces— 1. enhancement of mutual trust strategically and consolidation of the friendly overall situation. 2. Strengthening of link and coordination and safeguarding of the two countries' common benefit, and 3. Pushing forward of practical cooperation and exchange and deepening of the two armed forces' friendly ties.” [sic]

"My present visit is to further enhance the China-Myanmar traditional friendship, boost understanding, expand consent, deepen cooperation, push the friendly and cooperative ties between the two countries and the two armed forces ahead and strive for the maintenance of regional peace and stability," Xu was quoted as saying by Xinhua.

Although neither national media reported it, officials sources in Naypyidaw said that the Chinese general also raised the prospect of the Chinese navy docking at Kyaukpyu to safeguard Chinese interests. http://irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=21301
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Burma's Leadership Change to Nowhere
The junta's new generation: Same as the old generation.

By BERTIL LINTNER

Some in Asia have looked to recent events in the Middle East for clues about whether similar uprisings against unpopular authoritarian regimes could happen in places like China or Burma. But that's not the only point to consider from Asia's perspective. Those stories also offer a warning about the nature of change within such regimes, a red flag that is particularly relevant for Burma right now: A younger set of leaders is not always as liberal as outsiders hope.

Burma's military junta is in the midst of a political transition to a new generation. Long-ruling general Than Shwe, 78, has stepped aside, replaced by Thein Sein, a "youthful" 66. Since his appointment, Thein Sein has made some seemingly conciliatory remarks regarding freedom of expression. The European Union in particular has greeted this change with cautious optimism, slightly easing its sanctions against the regime.

Diplomats hope that a new generation may be more liberal-minded—that the next round of elections will be freer and fairer than last November's rigged polling; that the release of pro-democracy leader and Nobel Peace Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi from her long house arrest will be lasting; and that recent media opening and better access for international aid agencies are the start of a trend.

But if the Middle East teaches something for Asia, it's that the new generation isn't always what it's cracked up to be. In Libya, Moammar Qadaffi's son Saif al Islam was educated at the London School of Economics and was once hailed as a reformist influence. Syrian ruler Bashar Assad is a doctor once greeted as a reformer when he took over power from his father. Both are now leading bloody crackdowns in their countries.

Sure enough, Burma's new leaders follow this pattern. Gen. Thein Sein is no closet liberal. A former major general, he served as chief of the army's Golden Triangle command from 1997-2001. As prime minister he visited North Korea in August last year, heaping praise on Kim Jong Il and saying that Burma would "strive to strengthen and develop friendly relations" with the Pyongyang regime.

And despite recent signs of openness, other signs show the regime is busily entrenching itself for another generation. The Burmese military did not implement a new constitution and hold "elections" last year because the generals wanted to change the system that has kept them in power for half a century. Those "reforms" were meant to institutionalize the present order with the aim of perpetuating it.

For instance, the new constitution gives the commander in chief of the armed forces the power to directly select one-fourth of all parliamentary seats, and allows the president to hand over power to the army in the event of a "national crisis"—a term so vaguely defined it could mean a popular pro-democracy uprising. There is no indication Gen. Thein Sein has any intention to change this.

Likewise, recent openness in other areas should not be viewed as a sign that newer leaders are more liberal-minded. Rather, this suggests that the new generation is perpetuating the same cycle of repression, openness and then repression again that the older generation perfected.

Consider 1988, when a massive uprising started after years of repression and economic mismanagement. After gunning down thousands of demonstrators in a crackdown that would make Syria's rulers blush, the Burmese military encouragingly moved toward reform. It abolished the one-party system and announced that free elections wound he held. For almost a year, Burma experienced an unprecedented openness. Political rallies were tolerated across the country.

But in July 1989, the army moved in when democracy grew too popular. Hundreds were arrested and Ms. Suu Kyi placed under house arrest. A year later, elections were held, and they were surprisingly free and fair. Foreign journalists were allowed to cover the event. But the people made the mistake of voting for Ms. Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy, and another crackdown followed. The elected National Assembly was never convened. The international community was outraged—but mellowed when the military announced that a new constitution would be drafted and fresh elections held.

Since first being put under house arrest in 1989 around the time of the election, Ms. Suu Kyi's fate has tracked the junta's cycles. She was released in 1995 and allowed to hold political meetings and rallies. Then the military cracked down , and by 2000 she was under arrest again. And so on—released in 2002, re-arrested in 2003. Given this record, it would be premature to consider her latest release, in November last year, as a sign of permanent change for the better in the regime.

Nor is the international community's optimism itself a new phenomenon. When the original strongman, Ne Win, ruled from 1962 till 1981, Burma watchers used to say that things would change once he was gone from the scene. But the next generation turned out to be just as brutal, and perhaps even more so. Similarly, the new crop of military leaders under Gen. Thein Sein might turn out to be just as repressive as Gen. Than Shwe—or worse.

Burma is not immune to the democratic winds of change. Sooner or later, real change will come. But that will not be the type of "incremental improvements" some observers, especially in the European Union, think they're seeing now. Rather, it will be when those within the system turn against it—in other words, a crack within the ruling elite.

So far, there are no signs of such a crack in Burma. And by misreading current signals, outsiders could delay the arrival of that moment. Easing sanctions as a reward for false openness, for instance, removes a stress factor that could eventually cause some within the military to rethink the wisdom of the current regime.

Until the international community, and especially the EU, learns these bitter lessons of history, they will only encourage the junta to continue as it always has. That can only prolong the sufferings of the Burmese people.

Mr. Lintner is a Thailand-based correspondent for the Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet and author of several books on Burma.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703509104576324563051987194.html
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Thai FM says Burma unfit for ASEAN chair
By FRANCIS WADE
Published: 16 May 2011

Thai FM Kasit Piromya is accompanied by his Indonesian counterpart Marty Natalegawa after a meeting in Jakarta April 28 2011 (Reuters)

Thailand’s foreign minister has reportedly told his Australian counterpart that Burma must release all 2,100 political prisoners at the very least before ASEAN considers giving it the 2014 chair.

Kasit Piromya was speaking with Australian FM Kevin Rudd during a meeting in Bangkok last week. The Australian Associated Press quoted Kasit as saying that Burma has an “obligation to itself, to the ASEAN community in terms of the credibility, respectability and also the internal position of the ASEAN community”, all of which would need to be scrutinised before taking the chair.

It also said that both parties agreed on the need for Burma to improve its human rights record, of which the continued imprisonment of thousands of activists, politicians, monks and journalists is a cause célèbre.

Controversy erupted ten days ago after ASEAN appeared close to handing Burma the revolving chair for 2014, despite stern warnings from rights groups about both the rewarding of Burma’s maligned elections last year, and the effect it would have on the image of the bloc.

Observers quickly levelled sharp criticism at ASEAN, which has come under persistent international pressure to do more about Burma’s myriad domestic crises.

The latest reports suggest the decision has now been delayed. The US had reportedly sent a statement to the current chair, Indonesia, prior to the summit warning that it would sour relations between the bloc and the world’s largest economy if Burma was appointed.

Kasit’s comments are a rarity from a government that is increasingly attempting to court the Burmese leaders in return for furthering its economic reach in the country. It also marks a break from the recent past when Thailand, as chair of ASEAN, was reluctant to criticise the regime. According to the Rangoon-based Myanmar Times, however, ASEAN chief Surin Pitsuwan, a veteran Thai politician, supports Burma’s bid for the chair.

Australia has approached with caution pledges made by the new Burmese government that the country is transitioning to civilian rule. In a video message beamed to a parliamentary forum in Canberra last week, opposition icon Aung San Suu Kyi said that there had been “no positive, definite move towards a truly democratic process” in Burma, and urged MPs to closely scrutinise the rhetoric of the government against signs of tangible progress in the country.
http://www.dvb.no/news/thai-fm-says-burma-unfit-for-asean-chair/15672
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True News Journal Suspended for Two Weeks
By KO HTWE Monday, May 16, 2011

Burma's Press Scrutiny and Registration Division (PSRD) has suspended Rangoon-based journal True News for two weeks after the Ministry of Communications, Posts and Telegraphs (MCPT) complained about a front-page report concerning a deal on mobile phones.

The suspension of the news journal marks the first such ban on media since the new government was sworn in on March 30.

True News is accused by the MCPT of falsely reporting that any person in Burma who owns a GSM mobile phone—retail price being 1.5 million kyat [US $1,830]—can now pay an additional 50,000 kyat [$60] and receive a second cellphone. The report quoted Zaw Min Oo, a telecommunications chief engineer at the MCPT.

It is unclear why the government department objected to this report, nor has it been established whether True News is accused of misquoting Zaw Min Oo.

“The reason for the suspension is because the report went to press without the permission of the censorship board,” said a source close to True News.

The source speculated that other reasons for the suspension may exist. He said that in the same May 3 issue, True News carried a cartoon by well-known Burmese cartoonist Aw Pi Kye, depicting the government changing uniform. The journal also carried an article by Shwe Zee Kwat from the influential NGO, Free Funeral Services Society (FFSS).

“We had strong evidence to support the GSM mobile phone report,” said a reporter from True News who requested anonymity. “That same week, we were also denied permission to published news regarding Aung San Suu Kyi's visit to the FFSS, and were told to postpone an interview with FFSS founder Kyaw Thu.”

In an address to parliament on March 31, Burma's new president, Thein Sein, said that the government “must respect the role of the media.”

However, according to Nyan Tun Oo, a minister within the Rangoon regional government, the new government will continue the previous junta's policy of censoring media coverage which is sensitive to national security or critical of the state.

True News was founded in June 2008. It was previously suspended for two months in October 2009 over a photograph showing Burmese children working in Thailand.

“As far as I know,the duty of the censorship board is to prohibit news and articles that affect the state, religion and nationalism,” said Kyaw Thu. “The suspension [we received] is just the same as the former government used to impose.”

However, a Rangoon-based editor told The Irrawaddy on Monday that he feels there is a slight improvement in the PSRD's attitude toward the media since the new government was sworn in.

“If the editor [of a journal or newspaper] takes responsibility for the news coverage, then they can publish without going through the censors,” he said. “Previously, everything had to be sent to the PSRD for approval.”

The PSRD routinely censors books, journals and newspapers. Any media criticism of the military junta is strictly forbidden. Despite their strict rules and regulations, and draconian censorship practices, the PSRD currently licenses the publication of 326 newspapers, magazines and journals in Burma.

The Irrawaddy reporter Hset Linn also contributed this article. http://irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=21300
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May 17, 2011
Flawed math behind Myanmar 'democracy'
By David Scott Mathieson

MAE SOT - What if you held an election and you weren't sure how many people showed up at the polls? To establish voting patterns and trends, one needs to have an accurate estimate of the population, clearly demarcated electorates and the eligible voters contained therein, and a system of tallying votes. It is not clear how closely these prerequisites were observed ahead of the November 7, 2010, vote in Myanmar when population estimates in the country vary widely.

Myanmar has not had an effective nationwide census for decades. Previous ones took place during British colonial rule in 1931, under the post war social democratic government in 1953, and by the socialist government in 1983. The last official census in 1983 calculated the population to be 35.4 million, despite that count not being able to access considerable parts of the country due to civil war. But what is Myanmar's population now, and how did authorities count the votes on November 7, 2010?

Population estimates between 2008 and 2010 vary from 44.2 million in 2009 according to the United Nations, based on Ministry of Home Affairs figures, to 59.1 million in 2010 according to the government's Ministry of Immigration and Population estimates. The figures stem from a survey of some kind conducted from 2007 in cooperation with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) that estimated the population growth rate at 2.02% annually. From the lowest to highest figures over a two to three year period, there is a 15 million people differential in Myanmar government, UN and other international organizations' estimates.

Other estimates are as widely divergent. The Yangon-based UN agency, the Myanmar Information Management Unit (MIMU), released a map in 2009 with a breakdown of the population of all of Myanmar's 14 administrative units (states and divisions/regions) and the total population was 44.2 million based on ministry of home affairs figures. The 2009 Lonely Planet tourist guide claimed the population was 47.4 million. The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) estimates the population to be 48.1 million.

Many newspapers reporting on last year's elections in the past several months have variously estimated the population at 50, 51, 52, 54 or 57 million, all of the estimates likely based on Internet searches through the disparate figures on a variety of websites. According to data compiled by the United Nations Millennium Development Goals in 2008, the 2010 figure for Myanmar was projected at 50,495,000. In the 2008 Statistical Yearbook of Myanmar's Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development, the population figure was listed at 57,504,000.

So why the enormous fluctuation?

To understand the disparities in counting Myanmar's population, one has to know that estimating Myanmar's population is predominantly part of the system of authoritarian control. To monitor society, authorities have long employed a Draconian system of household registration.

Every house must have a list of inhabitants that are regularly reported to local authorities, at the suburb (or in Myanmar, the ward), or village level. Visitors are either denied permission to stay overnight or must be registered with the authorities. It is prohibited for foreigners to stay overnight in a private Myanmar home and all hotel registration lists are reported daily to local police and immigration authorities.

This system of control is vertically integrated. Regular population numbers of small communities are relayed up to the next stage of monitoring control: from village to village tract, next to township, then to state or region level, and ultimately to national authorities. This is not unique to authoritarian systems but in practice it grants latitude to local authorities to act in any way to ensure that good news flows up.

In a country such as Myanmar, where avoiding the attention of authorities is a basic survival strategy, compliance by officials and citizens to accord with expectations is often the norm - despite questions of veracity or efficiency of the gathered information. Supplying positive news is an essential measure of loyalty in repressive states.

For example, the swift counting of the vote at the 2008 constitutional referendum - not an arduous task in a simple yes or no vote but still a challenge considering Myanmar's lack of development and infrastructure - was reached within a couple of weeks and publicly announced down to the individual vote: a 92% approval of the constitution with a 98% voter turnout. It was clear that local authorities knew they must deliver positive, even if false, news to the next layer of control all the way up to central authorities in Naypyidaw.

Most observers agree that Myanmar's electoral process in 2010 was one gigantic fix to ensure continued military dominance: Electoral laws were rigged and interpreted by a pro-military Electoral Commission; 2,200 political prisoners, including many opposition party leaders, were barred from contesting the polls; and the military's Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), with 18 million nominal members and a nationwide structure of offices and financial assets, ensured that smaller upstart parties were at a competitive disadvantage.

On voting day, November 7, widespread irregularities were reported, including the use of advance voting ballots to swing seats in favor of the USDP during the closing stages of counting ballots. The USDP won more than 77% of the seats in the two national level parliaments and a clear majority in the 14 regional and state based assemblies. The Electoral Commission announced that 22 million of 29 million eligible voters cast ballots, equating to a turn-out of around 75%-80%.

Inconvenient intervening variables
Few analyses of the Myanmar population include demographic factors that challenge the prevailing official assessment: displacement through conflict and development projects, migration to neighboring countries or urban areas inside the country, statelessness of the Rohingya Muslim minority, hinterland hill-tribes, and other marginalized populations, and haphazard or incomplete citizenship registration.

Myanmar is an extremely poor country sharing rugged and underdeveloped borderlands with Bangladesh, China, India, Laos and Thailand, simmering insurgent conflicts in its especially eastern borderlands, and a bewildering ethno-linguistic patchwork of peoples that official estimates put at 135 "national race groups". The following is a short list of inconvenient intervening variables that any accurate assessment of Myanmar's demographics must consider:

Internal displacement. For more than a decade, there has been a major problem of conflict and development induced displacement in eastern Myanmar. The annual survey of the Thailand-Burma [Myanmar] Border Consortium (TBBC), an aid group that works with refugees, estimated 460,000 civilians were internally displaced in Myanmar in 2010 in a mixture of nominally government controlled areas, ceasefire militia enclaves and free-fire zones contested by state and anti-state forces.

These populations are a mix of recognized citizens of Myanmar and those whose births were not officially registered but have spent most of their lives under insurgent administration. Voting on November 7 was not held in several townships in border areas, such as the Wa special region in the north, and parts of the country where conflict is still raging in the Karen and Shan states.

Add to this tens of thousands of hill-tribe minorities, including Lahu, Akha, Palaung and others, especially in the northern states, who live on the fringes of state control and have never been officially counted. Ongoing conflict, or tensions between state forces and insurgents in border areas, meant that voting did not take place in parts of northern Shan State and eastern Myanmar, affecting parts of 32 townships (constituencies) and an estimated 350,000 people in total.

Refugees. There are more than 140,000 documented refugees in nine (unofficially) recognized camps in Thailand. These numbers have stayed largely constant since 1984 when the first major waves of refugees started to cross. More than 60,000 refugees have been resettled to third countries from these camps since 2005.

The ethnic Shan have only one very small recognized camp because most who have fled across the Thai border enter the migrant worker population. They easily number in the tens of thousands. India has approximately 50,000 ethnic Chin refugees in Mizoram and several thousand more in Delhi. Refugees also travel to Malaysia where some estimate 30,000-50,000 have fled to either work or apply for refugee status. Some refugees, however, retain their citizenship.

The Rohingya Muslim minority. Myanmar's most persecuted ethno-religious minority, the estimated one million Rohingya, have been the target of both large scale brutal military expulsions into Bangladesh (in 1978 and 1991) and denied citizenship and basic rights for three decades. Many Rohingya were paradoxically granted voting rights in 2008 and 2010 through the issuance of temporary ID cards and Rohingya political parties were permitted to contest the election (they were trounced).

Military-aligned Rohingya businessmen were permitted to contest and win seats through the USDP. An estimated 250,000 Rohingya live as refugees or as undocumented migrants in Bangladesh, while tens of thousands more work as migrant laborers in the Middle East and Pakistan.

Chinese migration to northern Myanmar. Chinese migration to Myanmar has demonstrably increased since the early 1990s, especially to Myanmar's second largest city, Mandalay.

Many Chinese migrants purchase citizenship, using business contacts with officials to secure it, while others are temporary laborers, such as the tens of thousands of road builders and dam construction workers now in Kachin State. There are no hard official figures on the size of this migration, but the presence of recent Chinese immigrants in northern Myanmar is clear to visitors and the source of periodic tension between ethnic Burmese and the new arrivals.

Migrant workers. Myanmar laborers leave their country in massive numbers, some for short-term work, others for many years. The standard estimate for Myanmar migrant workers in Thailand is two million. But in the absence of a fully functioning registration system, official Thai figures are much lower. In lesser numbers migrant workers from Myanmar also travel to Malaysia and Singapore, where working conditions are often marginally better.

Some of these workers were permitted to vote in last year's elections, if they were legally recognized as migrant workers, and cast advance ballots at Myanmar embassies. Some migrant workers refused to vote, fearing that officials would be able to extort money from them or their families back in Myanmar if they engaged with embassy officials.

Struck off household lists. Many people, especially Rohingya, who leave Myanmar because of persecution or for work are often struck off household registration lists because they have left the country illegally.

Many migrant workers leave their official ID cards inside Myanmar with their parents or family members because it is illegal to take the card outside of the country. Dissidents and others who have illegally left the country for clandestine training or work are regularly charged with breaches of the migration act and sentenced to long prison terms upon their return.

Internal labor migration. It became clear after 2008's Cyclone Nargis disaster that large numbers of landless laborers who had been working in the Irrawaddy Delta and may not have ever been counted either as temporary residents or as residents were amongst the official dead or missing count of 140,000.

The experience of the 2008 referendum, held soon after the disaster, is instructive in other ways. When Human Rights Watch interviewed survivors of the cyclone from 2008-2010, researchers encountered many who said they were not included in village household lists because of their isolated location.

Many said they were never given the opportunity to cast votes as local authorities completed their ballots for them. There are many other variables of transmigration not taken into account in official figures: how many people in Myanmar move within the country for work but fail to register with the authorities?

Authoritarian 'truth'. In his new book, Proofiness: The Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception, which details how governments and corporations bandy around deceitful figures, Charles Seife writes, “In skillful hands, phony data, bogus statistics, and bad mathematics can make the most fanciful idea, the most outrageous falsehood seem true. They can be used to bludgeon enemies, to destroy critics, and to squelch debate.”

The obsession with numerical detail by Myanmar's authoritarian system is a prime example of what Seife calls "disestimation": granting credibility to a figure that is derived with too much uncertainty. Accurately estimating Myanmar's population is not only crucial for conducting elections - and one hopes that a genuinely free and fair election will take place one day in the country - but it is also crucial for increasing development projects and the disbursal of humanitarian assistance.

What Myanmar's new parliament, a reshuffled version of the former ruling military council, needs to give priority to in 2011 are credible population statistics that serve the needs of local development in health, education, land management, and economic reforms, including urgently needed micro-financing projects. These fundamentals have been lost in the haze of a system of control and the various responses by communities to survive under continued military rule (with a thin civilian facade for now).

If the United Nations system bandies around widely divergent figures, how will they coordinate with the national authorities and local communities to reach those most in need? Any agenda for international engagement with Myanmar should include reconciling the variables of communities that are not included on official registers and give more consideration to people who are used by the state when it suits them, and ignored when it doesn't.

David Scott Mathieson is a senior researcher in the Asia Division of Human Rights Watch. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/ME17Ae01.html

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