Asia Times: UN gains leverage over Myanmar - Haseenah Koyakutty
Tue 14 Jul 2009
The consensus headlines from United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon’s recent trip to Myanmar focused on his failure to meet with detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The ruling military junta’s Senior General Than Shwe disallowed the diplomatic contact because Suu Kyi is currently on trial for allegedly violating the terms of her house arrest.
But an emerging parallel narrative is starting to generate different headlines, where UN pressure on the military regime and political fatigue among its top generals produces results. According to reports, Myanmar’s ambassador to the UN, U Than Swe, told the Security Council on Monday that his government was “processing to grant amnesty” to an undisclosed number of political prisoners to allow them to participate in democratic elections scheduled for 2010.
Ban had pressed the military regime during his recent visit to release over 2,100 political prisoners and ensure that the democratic elections would be free and fair. The prisoner release announcement comes notably while the global spotlight is focused on Myanmar’s secretive military modernization and nuclear energy designs. The UN’s latest and unanimous Security Council Resolution 1874, passed last month against North Korea, recently forced a North Korean ship suspected of carrying arms or missile components to abort its voyage to Myanmar and return home.
Chief of US naval operations Admiral Gary Roughhead told reporters that the UN resolution was indication of the international community coming together on the issue and the US navy’s tracking of the North Korean ship was a “very effective way” of preventing arms proliferation. Significantly, China and Russia, which have both shielded Myanmar from UN Security Council censure with their veto votes, cooperated with the toughened sanctions against Pyongyang.
What the purportedly Myanmar-bound North Korean ship was actually carrying remains a mystery, but the incident underscored how the UN and US are collaborating on security issues more effectively under the Barack Obama administration than the two sides did under the outgoing George W Bush government. Tying Myanmar to North Korea could also pay strategic dividends for the UN, which has for years tried to mediate national reconciliation in Myanmar without any meaningful breakthroughs.
During Ban’s most recent visit, his second to Myanmar as the UN’s chief envoy, Than Shwe dropped what some considered a symbolic bombshell. According to the UN, the reclusive military leader told Ban during their discussions that the next time the UN chief visited Myanmar, “I will be an ordinary citizen, a lay person, and my colleagues will too because it will be a civilian government.”
Myanmar’s generals plan to hold democratic elections next year after nearly a half century of uninterrupted military rule. Myanmar ambassador Swe told the UN on Monday that the country was “steadfastly proceeding on its chosen path to democracy” and hinted that the regime might accept international assistance in arranging the polls if deemed “necessary”. Several opposition groups, including Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party, may boycott the polls if their conditions for a free and fair poll are not met, while exiled activists have slammed the polls as a sham designed to perpetuate Than Shwe’s and the military’s rule under a civilian guise.
But people familiar with Ban’s recent closed-door meetings say the general conjured up the prospect of a civilian government in the presence of his military lieutenants who may still be split on the issue. The septuagenarian leader, a former expert in psychological warfare, is notorious for his mind games, making promises to the UN only to later break them. But political fatigue, an under-appreciated concept in conflict resolution, cannot be ruled out.
In neighboring Indonesia, nobody predicted its all-powerful military would step aside constitutionally in favor of civilian rule after former dictator Suharto’s fall from grace in 1998. Military schisms and fatigue were contributing factors in that democratic breakthrough. Myanmar lacks a credible constitution, impartial institutions, and a vocal middle class to press for democratic change, but like all decrepit regimes the end game often comes about through a succession of policy mishaps.
Repressive record
Than Shwe has in recent years overseen state-sponsored killing of Buddhist monks, the initial rejection of international emergency aid for over two million cyclone victims, and now subjected Suu Kyi to a show trial few if any in the international community believes has legal merit. The regime’s top general has ignored the world’s pleas for her release and once again bid to manipulate the UN in the process.
A UN official who requested anonymity out of protocol described Ban’s first two-hour meeting with Than Shwe as a mission to “speak truth to power”; as unscripted, frank and “forceful back-and-forth” through an interpreter. When the capricious dictator dismissed an idea out-of-hand, the UN official recounted, he would reply with a curt “Yes, thank you.”
The second meeting eventuated with the general’s refusal to allow Ban to visit Suu Kyi, and the UN’s top envoy had to make do with meeting her NLD party stalwarts. Ban’s exclusive time with Than Shwe was notable as the mercurial general has in the past rebuffed top UN envoys who visited the country.
It’s unclear if the two sides spoke about weapons proliferation or Myanmar’s nuclear designs. Upon his departure, Ban said Myanmar’s generals had missed an opportunity to work through the UN, but has yet to indicate whether the UN would consider tabling a resolution against Myanmar similar to the one passed against North Korea.
Prior to Ban’s courtesy call, Than Shwe met with Singapore’s former prime minister Goh Chok Tong, who last month led an official delegation to Myanmar. Singapore is a leading foreign investor in Myanmar, its second-largest trade partner after Thailand and one of the first countries to offer Cyclone Nargis assistance. A Singapore hospital has also provided treatment to Than Shwe for an undisclosed medical condition.
A source who accompanied Goh during the four-day visit said Myanmar is at a “tipping point” and that there’s a genuine need and want for change among the military and population. The Singapore source said that during their meetings the army expressed “deep frustration” over its inability to tame armed ethnic insurgent groups. At the upcoming elections, the Singapore official estimated, the downtrodden population “would buy into the rhetoric of the party that promises them the most peace”.
History has shown that political breakthroughs often occur when least expected. The UN and international community should recognize the growing signs of political fatigue in Myanmar’s stalemate, while at the same time treat Than Shwe’s overtures of democratic change through elections with deep skepticism as long as Suu Kyi remains behind bars and her NLD is excluded from any political transition.
United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum to be held in Thailand later this month, and North Korea and Myanmar are expected to dominate the security-oriented agenda. All eyes will be on China, which has big investment interests in Myanmar and in the past protected its military regime from UN censure, but may now frown on the generals’ weapons proliferation and alleged nuclear gambit with North Korea - both clear threats to international peace and stability.
It is possible that the UN, ASEAN and its dialogue partners could, with the backing of the US and China, move to close ranks and apply more uniform pressure for change on the military regime. Than Shwe is arguably running out of options and time-trusted allies and if China were to meet the regime’s brinksmanship with support for a new punitive UN resolution, a new diplomatic dynamic would emerge where the UN might yet make a difference in Myanmar.
Haseenah Koyakutty is a freelance Southeast Asia correspondent based in Bangkok.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
UN gains leverage over Myanmar
China's Black Cat, White Cat Diplomacy
Why Beijing is losing patience with its dysfunctional allies.
BY WEN LIAO | JULY 10, 2009
Deng Xiaoping famously said that it doesn't matter if a cat is black or white so long as it catches mice. These days, China seems to be applying Deng's logic to its neighbors: It doesn't matter if they are democratic or despotic, so long as they safeguard China's interests.
More... That simple premise helps explain why, after years of working with the military junta in Burma, China may now be looking to change tack. It's not that China is concerned that such a government is morally suspect; it's that Beijing worries that Burma's leaders are incompetent. And any slippage in that country's stability could have harsh consequences for China's own fortunes.
From the neighbors' side of the fence, China looks like a rising hegemon, keen to throw its weight around. The country's decisive intervention in support of the government in the recently concluded civil war in Sri Lanka -- a country outside its usual sphere of influence -- seemed to prove this.
Yet seen from Beijing, it is China's allies who at times string the country along for a ride. Two supposed subordinates in particular -- North Korea and Burma -- leave China feeling helpless to intervene, fearful that any instability abroad might upset China's delicate internal political peace. As China's rapid response to unrest in its Xinjiang region makes clear, nothing makes China's rulers more jittery than the potential of regional or border disputes to incite internal instability. With 200 people killed in the recent riots in Xinjiang, China finds unstable neighbors, and the threat of an influx of refugees, more dangerous than ever.
So the calculus behind China's regional security strategy is straightforward: If peace and prosperity among China's neighbors are not secured, then peace, prosperity, and unity at home will be put at risk.
This strategic imperative arose after China's relative success in navigating the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and 1998. The experience whetted China's appetite for regional respect, and the country began to deepen its ties with East and Southeast Asia, particularly members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). China agreed to settle its remaining territorial disputes with ASEAN members through collective mechanisms for arbitration. The country also signed ASEAN's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, promising never to use force against ASEAN members. It is a structure that has suited China quite well ever since, with two nagging exceptions, North Korea and Burma.
In the first case, the survival of North Korea's regime is a key Chinese foreign-policy goal. Beijing fears the inevitable flood of refugees that would stream over its border following that country's collapse. Moreover, a divided Korea suits China's purposes, because a unified Korea could emerge as another regional heavyweight, on the magnitude of Japan. So it is no surprise that China joined the six-party talks over North Korea's nuclear program out of fear that Western sanctions might shatter the North's brittle economy. Like a bank too big to fail, North Korea poses too dire a threat for China to contemplate pushing leader Kim Jong Il very hard. That is why China's influence over North Korea appears to be so ineffective.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/07/10/chinas_black_cat_white_cat_diplomacy
Ban Should Now Tackle Burma’s Constitution, Says Opposition
By WAI MOE Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Opposition parties in Burma say UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon didn’t go far enough in urging the military regime to ensure that the 2010 general election is “credible, inclusive and legitimate.”
The UN chief should also have addressed demands to rewrite the constitution drawn up by the regime and enacted in 2008, they say.
Nyan Win, spokesman of the National League for Democracy (NLD), said that even if the 2010 election were to be “free and fair”—as the regime had promised—“the 2008 constitution is undemocratic.”
The NLD disagreed with Ban on this point, Nyan Win said.
The regime claimed the 2008 constitution had been approved by more than 90 percent of voters in a national referendum held shortly after the Cyclone Nargis in May that year. Critics say the constitution had been drafted by handpicked official representatives and that the referendum was anything but free and fair.
The constitution reserves 25 percent of seats in both houses of a new parliament for military representatives, appointed by the commander-in- chief of the armed forces.
It also bars any person married to a foreigner from serving as president of the country. Furthermore, presidents must have military experience.
Both restrictions rule out the possibility of Aung San Suu Kyi ever taking office. “Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is definitely banned from becoming president under the 2008 constitution,” Nyan Win said.
Burma’s largest ceasefire groups—the Wa, Kachin, Kokang and Mon—also take issue with the constitution, which reserves 25 percent of the seats in state or regional assemblies for non-elected military representatives. The commander-in- chief of the armed forces will have power to abolish the parliaments of ethnic states and autonomous regions.
In a joint letter to the Chinese government, Wa and Kachin leaders said they wanted the 2008 constitution amended because it failed to respect the truth of political history and perpetuated the Burman centric long-term political distrust towards ethnic minorities.
“Mr Ban Ki-moon’s election proposals are totally out of touch with stakeholders in Burmese politics,” said Aye Thar Aung, an Arakan leader and secretary of the Arakan League for Democracy. “The greatest difficulty for Burma’s democracy process is now the constitutional crisis.”
Aye Thar Aung said the UN’s Burma efforts should now be directed at making sure the constitution enshrined democratic principles and ethnic minority rights.
http://www.irrawadd y.org/article. php?art_id= 16332
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