Where there's political will, there is a way

LAURENCE GRAY


It is amazing the political will and financial resources that can be marshalled by rich nations when they are under threat.


The result is hundreds of billions of dollars invested to prevent not just a meltdown of the US financial system but its tsunamic impact on economies everywhere.


Natural disasters are becoming the ‘‘new normal’’... A ferry sits high and dry after it was tossed ashore at Mohipur, when water levels rose more than five metres during Cyclone Sidr, which hit Bangladesh on Nov 19, 2007.




The decisive response is a lesson worth noting, as the world today marks Disaster Reduction Day - an international day established to remind governments that they need to do much more to help countries avert and prepare for natural disasters.


The potential global impact of a financial disaster, including lost jobs, homes and savings, and the political response to it, provide politicians with a clear example of how to address something potentially far more damaging - the threat of climate change.


This threat has yet to evoke the same sense of urgency among politicians but desperately needs to, if many millions of people in poorer parts of the world are not to be swept up in the consequences of inaction.


Just as in the debate over the financial crisis, climate change too has been marked by warnings, denials, anger, blame, grandstanding, a questioning of the forces at work and demands that the system - or the ecosystem - be left to correct itself.


Unlike the financial crisis, what is lacking now from global leaders is a sense of foreboding, urgency and action.


Papua New Guinea, Bangladesh and Indonesia are already feeling the heat of climate change-induced disasters, but their voice barely registers within the corridors of power in the West.


Like President Bush and national leaders around the globe who have of late been issuing increasingly shrill warnings of financial collapse, environmentalists have been warning that the earth is reaching a tipping point which, if passed, would unleash massive climatic changes.


Those who deal with disasters on a daily basis, like Sir John Holmes, the UN's emergency relief chief, says the number of disasters has doubled from around 200 to over 400 per year over the past two decades, with nine out of every ten being climate-related.


He states that these events are not abnormal but the "new normal".


World Vision, the organisation I work for, has just published Planet Prepare, a report that looks specifically at the disaster threats facing coastal communities in the Asia-Pacific region (http://www.wvasiapacific.org).


Publication of the report was postponed to take account of Cyclone Nargis, which hit Burma five months ago, killing as many as 140,000 people. Most of the very poor farmers and fisherfolk who lived in the delta flatlands of the Irrawaddy were killed not by the cyclonic winds but by the resulting sea surge that swept up to 35km inland.


The frightening scenario Planet Prepare highlighted was how sea level rise combined with massive populations living in delta or low-lying and sinking cities are putting tens of millions of poor people at great risk.


The warning signs are clear: Antarctic ice shelves are threatening to collapse, and mass deforestation and rapidly rising carbon-based energy use are combining to further raise atmospheric temperatures and sea levels. This will result in more frequent and violent storms and surges.


Here are some lessons that should be applied from the financial crisis if we are to stand any chance of responding to the impact of climate change.


Lesson One: Those at the bottom of the pyramid suffer most. In the United States, low-income sub-prime mortgage defaulters have lost homes while many more are at risk. A worsening crisis means that those without savings and jobs will be extremely vulnerable.


Climate change, likewise, will disproportionately impact the poor. This is especially true in Asia, with its massive coastal capitals - including Manila in the Philippines, Jakarta in Indonesia and Dhaka in Bangladesh.


A one-metre rise in sea level would inundate 800,000sqkm of land in Asia, displacing more than 100 million people. In Vietnam alone, 11% of the population would be displaced.


Lesson Two: We are all inter-connected. Any collapse of Wall Street would domino across the globe, resulting in devastating consequences for banks, bourses and economies. In turn this could lead to mass job losses and an increase in poverty and unknown economic, political and social consequences.


In a similar way, our environment is globalised and therefore any nations failure to significantly reduce greenhouse gases has severe implications for others.


America's gas guzzling cars emit carbon dioxide that will lead to sea level rises that will impact China, while Australian coal burnt in China's power stations will help fuel hurricanes that impact Florida.


However, some wealthier nations have historically emitted more carbon dioxide and therefore have a larger obligation to act.


Lesson Three: The money can be found.


The US$700 billion bailout package proves that wealthy nations can find the money when they have to, and they can sell it to their electorates when the threat and cost of inaction is made clear.


In environmental terms, aside from a global commitment to reducing greenhouse gases, tens of billions of dollars must be spent to help the developing world prepare for climate change that is already locked into the system.


This money is needed to help communities adapt, to build protective infrastructure, train children and adults how to prepare for and survive disasters.


Every US$1 spent on building disaster resilience is a wise investment because it saves many more that would otherwise be spent on post-disaster relief responses.


In 1970, Bangladesh lost over 300,000 people to a massive cyclone.


In response, humanitarian organisations like World Vision worked with the Bangladesh government to build scores of cyclone shelters and invested in early warning systems.


When Cyclone Sidr barrelled into Bangladesh last November, some 4,000 people died - a huge number, but far lower than what might have been.


If climate change is not taken seriously enough, the world will be forced to cope with mass migrations of millions and likely political and social upheaval associated with poverty and displacement.


The challenge climate change presents has obvious parallels with how governments are responding to the current financial crisis.


The danger signs are clear, the need for an urgent response is undeniable, and the money can be found.


All that is lacking is the decisive political will from wealthy nations to act quickly and comprehensively.


If we fail to do so, we will all suffer - and the poor more than most.


Time is running out.


Laurence Gray is Advocacy Director for World Vision, Asia-Pacific