http://www.irrawaddy.org/opinion_story.php?art_id=15307

Power Sharing Must Precede Lifting of Sanctions
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By YENI Monday, March 16, 2009

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Calls by Burma’s opposition National League for Democracy and its leader Aung San Suu Kyi for continued sanctions have met with increasing criticism recently, with charges that they are systematically weakening the country's economy.

It is theoretically true that limitations on trade, investment and foreign aid have led to macroeconomic instability and even deterioration. But the question remains: could Burma's economy boom if Western sanctions were lifted?

Burma observers, including critics from the anti-sanctions camp, would surely reply in the negative. They must agree that the suffering of the Burmese people has been almost exclusively caused by decades of economic mismanagement and lack of vision.

Policy decisions are determined according to the whims of junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe and his number 2, Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye, who has assumed a prominent role in economic matters. Economic decisions are often based on strategic, military factors, and the state bureaucracy have to enact them whether they like it or not.

While monopolizing the country's economy, the ruling generals have rewarded personal friends and family members with preferential treatment. Certain companies close to the junta's top leaders have been given special import permits and preferential lending.

Special favors include preferential tariff rates and customs duties; preferred access to natural resources; monopoly privileges in certain lucrative areas of commerce and industry; special considerations in the issuance of licenses and permits; subsidized prices for land, buildings, petrol and diesel, gas, electricity and water; preferential exchange rates; and preferential treatment on government contracts.

The country’s military—the tatmadaw—is involved in many commercial activities via the Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Ltd (UMEHL) and the Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC). Foreign firms seeking to set up joint ventures have reported that affiliation with UMEHL or MEC proves useful in helping them receive the proper business permits.

"Nonetheless, entering into business with UMEHL or MEC does not guarantee success for foreign partners,” said a US State Department report. “Some investors report that their Burmese military partners are parasitic, make unreasonable demands, provide no cost-sharing, and sometimes muscle out the foreign investor after an investment becomes profitable."



Many investors have already withdrawn from Burma because of a hostile investment climate and disappointing returns.

Meanwhile, the tatmadaw and their cronies, in seeking to avoid Western sanctions, have turned to involvement in the informal economy, including private banking networks, smuggling, barter trade, unrecorded agriculture production, corruption, and illicit activities, such as narcotics production.

If Burma’s military rulers had any vision and the will to develop the country’s economy, they could follow the lead of Vietnam and China, which have instituted economic and political reforms and begun a path towards international reintegration.

At the same time, in response to a junta statement that “confrontation, utter devastation, economic sanctions and total isolation do not benefit the country or the people,” Suu Kyi informed the authorities through official mediator Aung Kyi that she "was ready to cooperate and issue a joint communiqué to prevent these problems [misunderstandings] from happening.”

Sanctions should indeed be lifted, but the Burmese regime must first agree to share power with the democratic leaders.

So far, there is no sign that the Burmese regime wants to change its current policy by releasing Suu Kyi and other political prisoners and starting dialogue with the opposition.
Without tangible political improvements, Burma cannot hope to reduce the pressure exerted by the international community.


COMMENT(30)

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Plan B Wrote: 20/03/2009

Why can't the Irrawaddy be like this news site, where your comments are uncensored and checked by readers who report abuses?

http://www.project-syndicate.org/about_us/support_us

There obviously is a double standard here.

Name calling against the junta is permitted. However, comments supporting the junta or suggestions against ASSK are censored.



Plan B Wrote: 20/03/2009

This is the continuation of last comment supporting BL.

Now the junta only builds what they want to stay in power.

Those who talk about R2P (dead horse buyer) know that this is the most ridiculous thought. Burma has known no peace from within until recently. R2P! So justify the junta's iron grip even more?

The basic tenant of Democracy is the middle class. Support the middle class and things will take care of themselves. Relying on one person to deliver Burma is not going to work. Those countries who advocate continuing the present policy are those who obviously prefer the status quo.

I realize any suggestion of working with the junta will either not get printed by this forum (lots of democracy here!), or attract lots of flaming (see comments by Okkar).

Well "the plague be on both your houses" (Shakespeare: Romeo & Juliet), Irrawaddy, if you fail to faithfully execute your duty to bring different view.



Plan B Wrote: 20/03/2009

To BL
I could not agree with you more. After 40 plus years, not 20 years mind you, one might think we will need to change strategy. There was a blip a few months back when the brave Denmark PM suggested such, and she was almost called a heretic.

This is the fact:
People in Burma are suffering secondarily due to the present policies of the military government.

However the sufferings are compounded or made worse by the Western government sanctions (dead horse). Look at all the responses--the majority of the printed responses still support sanctions.

As a result compounded by the natural disaster we are now seeing an eventual "failed state" in the making.

Worsening health care. Burma traditionally relies on the WHO and UNICEF heavily. That support is gone.

Worsening education. The junta loved uneducated people, be it outside (the dead horse beater) or inside.

Deteriorating infrastructure. Again Burma depends heavily on the UN and World Bank for building roads, communication etc.



Okkar Wrote: 20/03/2009

Glad to see my comments stirs up angry and hostile defense from opposition camp. It seems like they have been rattled by the questions that I raise, they all came out of the wood work to defend the NLD. While they put up strong arguments and condemnation to the regime, no one has really answered the question with regards to the reckless strategies of the NLD. The sad truth is, neither the NLD nor their uneducated supporters have a clue how to lift Burma out of the poverty pit! They don't have any solution nor credible strategy for post-regime Burma, all they want is power, and that is all the care about. They are happy to make promises that they can't keep along the way and they don't care who suffers from their mistakes, which makes them no different from the very regime they are supposed to be fighting against.



BL Wrote: 19/03/2009

Dakota tribal wisdom says that when you discover you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount. However, in the case of Burma we often try other strategies with dead horses, including the following:
1. Buying a stronger whip.
2. Demand more dead horses.
3. Declaring that "No horse is too dead to beat."
3. Change the requirements declaring that "This horse is not dead."
4. Providing additional funding to increase the horse's performance.
5. Arranging to visit South Africa to see how they rode the horse when it was alive.

After 20 years, it is time to take an assessment of what has been achieved - and what has not been achieved. The paper "Limitations of the Global Human Rights Paradigm" from Pederson should be discussed.

But I think that with 20 years of experience under its belt, the regime has learned to circumvent the Western sanctions and they have not brought the regime to its knees.
It is time to find a better strategy for change.




Kyi May Kaung Wrote: 19/03/2009

I agree with Yeni, who seems to understand economics better than most journalists.

It is more than the lack of development
"almost exclusively caused by decades of economic mismanagement and lack of vision" on the part of the SPDC.

It has not grown economically because of a system of central planning and control that was first set up in 1962 by Gen. Ne Win, the grand daddy of them all, and then exacerbated by the factors Yeni describes, which started after the Slorc's so-called "open economy" after 1988.

What will happen if sanctions are suddenly lifted? As they did not have much effect anyway, trade may grow a little but it won't be as much as if the SYSTEM were changed -- in a Chinese or Vietnamese way which involved Special Economic Zones and lifting of compulsory delivery quotas on rice, etc., and long term leases for farm land to real farmers.

Give me a break, I am tired of people writing about economics when they know no economics.



Thura Wrote: 18/03/2009

We must accept the realities.

The junta has a very strong control over the country. They can successfully oppress the opposition with little international pressure. They have a rather stable income from gas exports. Natural gas resources have enabled them to get a better position in dealing with China, India, etc. Like it or not, you need to give up your dreams of 100% democracy, and be prepared to give the junta a major role in politics to compromise with them.

Achieving 100% democracy is, in the coming few decades, almost impossible. Burma needs to embrace a hybrid-democracy, or Indonesia-styled democracy, or whatever it is called, in order to break the current stalemate.

I think the NLD should accept the realities, and move forward in a realistic direction.



Moe Aung Wrote: 18/03/2009

Why have sanctions been ineffectual? Because they've been inconsistent, uneven, full of loopholes, and more importantly, because of the full scale 'sanctions-busting' by the states that are not party to any of this. Is this so hard to understand?

Lift the sanctions and add fuel to the hellfire of repression, deprivation, contempt for rule of law and justice, and massive inequity already plain for all to see. Yes, more of the same for the rest of us, more gazillion dollars for the generals to feather their nests and keep their own private army to keep us down.

If they had no qualms about reneging so shamelessly (soldier's honor? Whoa!) on the results of the 1990 elections before the entire world, why would they honor the results of another sham election if - heaven forbid - it doesn't go their way?

sandar,

So it's only fair the opposition should take part, bound and gagged, in everything rigged up by the junta, and shouldn't yell 'Foul'. You've earned your dollar; not minimum wage?



Kaw Thaw Wrote: 17/03/2009

Burma is reaching a dead-end, and the world has used up all its resources and brains to try to influence its regime. Even the world's only superpower has admitted the limited leverage the international community has over Burma. Nothing can influence its regime. The only way out is we have to fight fire with fire. We can't afford another half century of waiting for the result of sanction or engagement to be materialized. We the Burmese people are already a dead pig, so why are we still afraid of boiling water? After all I think we have to be realistic with the fact that power can only be wielded from the gun barrel. That's why the regime is sticking to that tactic no matter what.



e.r. Wrote: 17/03/2009

The author's analysis is obvious to any honest observer. Many in the anti-sanctions camp argue as if sanctions had always and universally been enforced. Everyone knows that both premises are absolutely untrue. Western sanctions have been in place for little more than a decade and before sanctions the situation for Burmese people was quite the same. Moreover, investments and money are entering Burma from neighbouring countries. If the generals would improve the lives of their people they could easily do it. Instead, they prefer to fill their strongboxes. These two simple facts are enough to put an end to every speculation or manipulation.

It's not sanctions that make the difference for Burmese people in an economic environment like Burma's (monopolized by the junta and its cronies): just regime change could make the difference. Burma is, in my opinion, one of clearest examples in history of economic mismanagement by an absolute dictatorship. All the rest is fiction (or lies).



sandar Wrote: 17/03/2009

Aung San Suu Kyi is the main source of economic sanctions. Like it or not, there are many of her sayings in various interviews/ statements (all these interviews/ speeches/ statements are recorded) about her call for economic sanctions. Now she denied it. She lied to the people of Myanmar shamelessly. Nobody will denounce her desire for power (everybody wants power) but if she wants to be a state leader she needs to be honest in her saying. The whole world knows that she is lying. But she pretends to be “a good saint” cleaned of all sins. She is visibly very much afraid of getting out of her comfort zone of “victim”.

I can only hope that she will not end her life like Taslima Nasrine one day.

NLD should review their failed policies. NLD should update their policies. NLD should work hard in order to re-gain people's support. NLD should rethink their strategy of always showing they are “victimized.” It is no longer workable.

The lifting of sanctions in my view will largely depend on the ability of the new government that will be in place after 2010 elections according to the constitution.



Thu Ri Ya Burma Wrote: 17/03/2009

The lifting of sanctions won’t change Burma’s economy too much, especially during the global economic downturn. To improve Burma’s economy, an open-door policy and economic reform might work. Get right people in the right place; we need experts, no corruption, no mismanagement, no wrongdoing, etc. Otherwise, don’t even think about it.



Thura Wrote: 17/03/2009

Why are many people here sticking to a policy that has produced no positive result in the past 20 years?

Those who supported the sanctions must accept the fact that the sanctions did not produce the intended results in the case of Burma. If you plan to continue to support these sanctions, you must provide more realistic reasons for sticking to the policy that has not worked in the past 20 years.




sandar Wrote: 17/03/2009

The articles, as well as most of the comments, have no insight. Some do not even dare to suggest the NLD to take up armed revolution, as if they are not aware of 50 years of failed armed struggles of various ethnic groups.

The international policy makers will notice that, in effect, there is no vision for the future in the pro-opposition society of Myanmar [Burma]. The very excellent thing given by the opening of the comments session is that it will make them (the international policy makers) understand the mindset of the opposition they are supporting with blind eyes (just for the words: “democracy” and “human rights”). Western countries think and believe that these words belong to their culture. Therefore whenever these words are concerned, they think that they have to defend them in order to protect their interests.

If NLD or the international community will wait until now for the “talks” between the junta and opposition to lift the sanctions imposed on Myanmar, they can wait another 20 years. The “talks” will never happen. Everybody in Myanmar knows it, the NLD knows it, and the exiled community knows it.

NLD wants a review of the constitution, they said. We, the people of Myanmar, did not know that. If they wanted a review of the constitution, why didn’t they attend the National Convention in 2004? They were invited by the junta. The ethnic parties were also invited to the NC by the junta. We only learned that they had refused to attend the NC because their leaders were not released. Now they are giving a different version of events. You need to be extremely consistent in each word you say if you want “power” to govern a nation.




Salai Bawi Wrote: 17/03/2009

I agree with the idea that economic development will bring about democracy in Burma. This is a development model in East Asia.

But the Burmese regime has to open up the economy. It's time to abandon the stupid things they have done to the country. If sanctions are lifted, it means the door to development is open. The regime should give sufficient incentives to Burmese people including those students abroad to go back to Burma and work for the country. The regime has failed to use its Burmese intellectuals. It's a pity.




Eric Johnston Wrote: 17/03/2009

If one draws up a table, columns World Regions, rows Type of Sanctions, it becomes obvious that there are few real sanctions.

Should there be sanctions? The question should perhaps be: Which sanctions?

Trade and investment in some sectors could produce much employment. The difficulty will be to persuade potential investors in such sectors that their Burmese officer partners will not edge them out when the business becomes profitable (a common occurrence). In some sectors, investment produces increased military presence together with forced labor, atrocities and huge profits for the regime and its cronies.

Of course, in normal circumstances, government revenues benefit the population - through improved health, sanitation, education, housing and other benefits. But in Burma?




Moe Aung Wrote: 17/03/2009

How unsurprising to see some of the people who've lived and worked in the West for a while tend to think all you need to do is develop the generals' economy further by lifting sanctions. Is this a kind of “non-ideology virus” that people get infected by after a while? That economic development is all that matters, never mind who rules, exploits and represses an entire nation full of a myriad and diverse range of ethnic peoples.

Politics matters more because that's what underlies the decision-making process, if it needs to be reminded. It boils down to the choices they make and the choices whichever group is in power - particularly those with a totalitarian mindset - deny the rest of us.




KKK Wrote: 17/03/2009

To Robert Mcintyre:

Sanctions must not be lifted until the regime has failed. Burmese people are suffering not becasue of NLD, but because of military regime.



KKK Wrote: 17/03/2009

To Okkar:

What do you want to do if The Irrawaddy is a mouthpiece of the NLD?
Did Burmese people give the generals the right to rule the country? Did you and your generals ever learn macro and micro economics at school? Who is currently ruling the country? NLD or junta? Junta, right? So you should blame the generals and yourself, not NLD. Why don't you and your generals ask help from "Swe Myo Pauk Phaw?" If you don't know what to do, sell your piece of land and Burmese people to China, India, Thai, Singapore and Malaysia.




kojew Wrote: 17/03/2009

Don't make simple things confused. What and who can make economic sanctions be lifted?
ASSK or SPDC?

Therefore, the SPDC should make the first move.



Luke Kent Myintthu Wrote: 17/03/2009

Okkar wrote:

The most important questions no one seems to be answering is: does the economic mismanagement of the regime give the NLD the right to destabilize the macro economy and systematically weaken the development of the country?

The answer is No. But, why there are sanctions:
1. Burma's regime is not responsible even with humanitarian aid money.
2. Burma's regime is not accountable even with humanitarian aid money.
3. Burma's regime is not transparent even with humanitarian aid money.
4. Burma's regime begs for money from China, Russia, Asean and uses it only for their benefit.
5. Sanctions are to punish the abusers: the Burmese regime. Low moral conscience of China's leaders with their monetary help is supporting the survival of Burma's regime.
6. People inside Burma even like sanctions, including my relatives.

Top secrets: Singapore’s Burmese embassy has to collect money in taxes from Burmese for Than Shwe's children shopping: S$200,000 per month last year. This year S$400,000 per month. Every Burmese in Singapore hates people in the Burmese embassy. This is one of the simplest examples why there are sanctions to Burma's regime.





Soe Kyaw Thu Wrote: 17/03/2009

From 1993 to 1999, I was in Rangoon, attending RIT. As a university student, I got a daily allowance of 5 Kyat besides a daily bus fare. At that time, there were Tun Kyi, Tin Oo and Khin Nyunt, who were abusing the Burmese people's money and became the richest persons in Burma. I don't want another Tun Kyi, Tin Oo and Khin Nyunt. We are fighting for system change and mindset change: Revolution of the whole system and mindset in unity.

Does Okkar:
Know how to earn money? Don't chase for money. Chase for the proof of being responsible, accountable, and transparent. Money will follow. Hey Okkar, tell your military generals to chase for proof of being responsible, accountable and transparent.

In USA, I don't beg for money like Burma's generals are begging money from China, Russia and Asean. And what did they do with that money? Deputy General Myint Swe abused materials donated by foreign countries as if he donated these.

Most people in the Burma democracy movement beg for money too. But, they work for the Burmese people. I worked in the US and helped my relatives and helped the movement.

If Burma's generals abused Burmese people’s money once, and they asked for second time? Chinese proverb: If someone fools you once, it is his/her fault; if the person fools you second time, it is your fault.




Zaw Min Wrote: 17/03/2009

I'm following up on what Okkar wrote.

Why were sanctions placed in the first place? Was it for NLD to get power or regime to share or cede power?

Whatever the answer is, sanctions are not bringing the answer closer while ordinary people are having a hard time that is becoming harder as time goes by. Meanwhile the regime can stay on forever with sanctions in place.

Removing sanctions will not remove the regime. Removing sanctions will not result in an economic boom. Removing sanctions will certainly allow more foreign investment to come in and work with the regime, which is working even with sanctions in place. But removing sanctions will also allow ordinary people to work with foreign investors who want to work with them. This will at least level the field a bit while allowing more eyes and ears of the world to be in our country where it matters most.

If the regime is stupid enough to challenge the world to open up the country by dropping sanctions, what is the opposition, NLD, and whoever is afraid by helping them keep it shut? Ordinary people are the ones who are going to gain the most through economic and education development. Development in economy and education is the key to bring about democracy, human rights and rule of law to our country and it is sure that sanctions are hindering this development, not helping.




robert mcintyre Wrote: 17/03/2009

The sanctions must be lifted, or the people that implement them are causing suffering to get their point over. The NLD party in Burma must call for this or face being a party to policies as destructive to the people of Myanmar as any military legislation.



mg win Wrote: 17/03/2009

The economic mismanagement and excessive brutality of the regime toward its civilians (including ethnic nationals) does give the international community the right to impose economic sanctions on "regime-controlled" economy, regardless of what the NLD thinks or says.



Nay Min Wrote: 17/03/2009

Most people focus and talk about too much about politics, but not business and economic development plans. Does the NLD have any alternative and comprehensive business and economic strategy and plans to replace the current failed policy? Or to show a clear alternative idea how they will make the county get back on the business and economic growth?

Just blame and blame others, but without alternative plan and preparedness, no way to get from this economic turmoil. Just changing the seats/guards from uniforms to “Pin Ni Tik Pon” (traditional Burmese jacket), for the people, farmers and workers, no one getting benefit. The country needs people with strong management and business minded leaders, but [not] activists shouting on the street or making statements. That is the minor work of the students on the campus, not decisive leaders who can bring change and reform to the country with prosperity and development.




Moe Aung Wrote: 17/03/2009

Okkar,

Questions, questions, questions. The voice of reason, eh? Destabilize? Of course the status quo is so much better. Weaken development? Oh no, not stunted and crushed under the military boot, of course not, all hunky dory. Reckless? No guns please, we are squeamish. Something to hide? No, you can't beat blatant repression and rampant exploitation. Nah, nana, nah, nah! We got the guns! You got none!

Power-sharing? No way! Lifting sanctions? Yes way! What the generals want the generals get.

Stalemate? Deadlock? Only from the opposition point of view, mate. Our generals are going from strength to strength, and zooming down the roadmap. Outta the way! Or we'll run you down! Nah, nana, nah, nah!

You'd make a Martian think Burma is being misruled by the NLD and not your generals. Hope you get not just a medal but dollars for services rendered.




MyoChitThuNYC Wrote: 16/03/2009

It is obvious that Okkar is a junta apologist/member of the Tatmadaw.

It is obvious that corruption and mismanagement of the top junta officials has ruined Burma's economy over the past 20 years. The Irrawaddy is not a mouthpiece of the NLD. The Irrawaddy frequently had articles criticizing NLD CEC's ineffective leadership over the past 20 years.

If there are more American and EU investments in Burma, the top generals will siphon off all the $$$ into their bank accounts in Singapore. Just look at funds given to the SPDC by the UN for Nargis relief. A good percentage of those millions of $$$ was siphoned off into the junta's bank accounts, due to FECs. What about import permits for cars horded by top generals/cronies? These are making cars very expensive for ordinary people. If Burma is so poor due to Western sanctions, where did Than Shwe get $$$ to build a brand new capital?

The main reason that Burma's economy is in shambles are the SPDC generals' mismanagement.





Eric Johnston Wrote: 16/03/2009

If the NLD gets what is its ultimate goal: human rights and democracy - which is obviously the goal of those who supported pro-democracy parties on the only occasion they could express themselves freely - Burma's economy is likely to experience a boom such as it has never known before. However, far from making small hesitant steps in this direction, the SPDC is walking backward into ever greater economic chaos. Economics, politics and human motivation cannot be isolated from one another.



Okkar Wrote: 16/03/2009

Same old apologists and whitewash stories. Irrawaddy has finally become a mouthpiece of the NLD.

The most important questions no one seems to be answering is:

Does the economic mismanagement of the regime give the NLD the right to destabalise the macro economy and systematically weaken the development of the country?

Was NLD right to behave recklessly without considering the impact their actions would have on the grassroots?

Why do NLD and their apologists seek to avoid these questions? What have they got to hide?



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