Time For A Revision

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Editorial/Time_For_A_Revision/articleshow/3441750.cms

Caught between engagement and isolation, Burma, renamed Myanmar by its dictatorial military junta, is in a state of decline. What was once the richest land in South East Asia is now one of the poorest. What was once a vibrant nation is now subject to strict control by a clique of generals determined to countenance no dissent.

Although two political crises have rocked Burma recently, neither has loosened the tight political grip of the junta. Rather, each has amply exposed the impotence of western powers in dealing with a regime widely viewed as odious.

Last September, nascent monk-led democracy protests were brutally crushed. This May, attempts to mount a rapid global response to cyclone devastation in the Irrawaddy delta were severely hampered. In neither case, however, were the US and the EU able to develop an effective policy response.




Indeed, it was striking that even a natural disaster of the magnitude of Cyclone Nargis did not create an opportunity to unlock a closed political process. When the tsunami hit Aceh in December 2004, a window for dialogue and communication among opposing parties opened up and became one of the key catalysts for peace. In Burma, despite loud calls from many western powers for global engagement with humanitarian relief efforts, no such political shift has taken place.

The inability of western powers to craft a viable Burma policy means that attention turns back to Asia. In both crises, China used its unrivalled access to open up some communication channels and facilitate a measure of engagement with Burma's reclusive junta. ASEAN moved beyond its standard practice to express 'revulsion' at the state-sponsored violence against monks, and to lead humanitarian responses to cyclone damage. However, real change inside the country seems unlikely to come by either route.

There is, then, an important opportunity here for India. Following a brief flirtation with Burma's democracy movement in the late 1980s, New Delhi has since the mid-1990s taken a hard-nosed strategic interest in building close ties with the military government. To date, however, those efforts have met with limited success.

This is chiefly because a security dynamic has been allowed to predominate. India is determined to defeat insurgents in its restive north-east who find refuge across the porous Burmese frontier. It is also keen to counter what it sees as a creeping Chinese security presence in Burma. For these reasons, military links are now well developed, and Indian supplies to the Burmese army have passed from the non-lethal to the lethal.

Yet there can be much more to the bilateral relationship. New Delhi is interested in Burmese oil and gas reserves, and has had some success in securing contracts. In addition, the Look East Policy launched some 15 years ago must run through Burma if links with South East Asia are to be enhanced. India is also involved in infrastructure projects designed to upgrade major roads and port facilities.

At present, however, these are little more than necessary foundation stones for a comprehensive Burma policy.

Trading links can be pursued not just through natural resources, but also through small-scale cross-border commerce that helps to enrich marginalised and impoverished parts of both Burma and India. Currently, however, such trade is constrained by restrictive travel regulations informed by security concerns rather than development perspectives.

Cultural diplomacy is another important area that should rise up the agenda. Only 60 years ago, India's first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, and Burma's first premier, U Nu, were good friends and often consulted each other on international issues. Twenty years ago, Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was a personal friend of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi. However, several decades of xenophobic rejection by successive Burmese generals mean that New Delhi must now work hard to re-establish friendly relations.

Education also holds the key. The shambolic state of teaching and learning in Burma means that the country is in desperate need of outside help to train future generations. Indian schools, which have been successfully opened in many parts of the world, have a crucial role to play.

The Burma problem runs deep and will not be solved in a matter of months or even years. To build a platform for long-term engagement with its strategic neighbour, India's foreign policy elite needs to be more creative.

By taking its Burma policy beyond military and natural resource issues, New Delhi can both enhance its security leverage, and recapture a relationship that was once cordial. Promoting this policy shift is also in the interests of the wider world that desperately wants to facilitate long-term change inside Burma. Indeed, if India were able to gain the confidence of military leaders in Burma through multiple strands of engagement, it could start to promote multilateral talks bringing ASEAN, China and Japan from Asia together with the EU and US from outside to engage in talks with the Burmese junta and, ultimately, leading opposition forces.

In charting a new Burma policy for India, it has to be acknowledged that greater engagement by New Delhi will not generate immediate political reform. However, it will mean that when fresh crises create new opportunities for mediation, India will be better placed to step up to the plate.

Ghoshal is senior fellow, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, and Holliday is dean of social sciences, The University of Hong Kong.