Change we can believe in? 2008 showed the world needs it

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/editorial/change-we-can-believe-in-2008-showed-the-world-needs-it-20081230-77c9.html?page=-1

December 31, 2008
AROUND the world, 2008 challenged preconceptions and overturned complacent assumptions. It is a year in which an "unsinkable" global economy steamed into the iceberg of the US financial crisis. The resulting crises dramatically altered the political calculus, at national and global levels. At the same time as the financial crisis demonstrated the worldwide impact of US policy, it helped ensure the remarkable election of America's first black president, Barack Obama.

By the time of the US election, it was clear the status quo was no longer tenable — whether the issue be financial regulation, economic development and trade, energy policy and climate change or global security and diplomacy. The US has a central role to play in almost every one of these global challenges. No wonder the eyes of the world are on the US President-elect to see what change he delivers once he assumes office on January 20.

Eight years of the Bush Doctrine has laid bare the intellectual poverty of the "with us or against us" mentality of the "war on terror". Squandering the sympathy aroused on September 11, 2001, the Bush Administration alienated even once friendly nations with its scorn for multilateral diplomacy and international laws and conventions.

It is easier to avoid a mess in the first place than to clean it up later. The closure of Guantanamo Bay is emblematic of the difficulties confronting Mr Obama, but may be among the least of them. Six years into the disastrous folly of the Iraq war, George Bush is the last of the leaders of the so-called coalition of the willing still in office. Mr Obama is committed to withdrawing US troops from Iraq, but the seven-year conflict in Afghanistan is now sucking in the depleted stocks of the US and its allies.The Obama administration will need to harness global diplomacy and political progress in Afghanistan in tandem with military muscle, the limitations of which are now obvious.



The US and Europe will also have to repair relations with Russia after the war in Georgia. Even though the Kremlin might have been chastened by the collapse of oil revenue and foreign investment, any eastward expansion of NATO and missile defences will be seen as provocative — and Europe's energy dependence on Russia is open to exploitation.

The world will again look to the US to give the lead in tackling a long list of festering conflicts, failed states and the humanitarian disasters that inevitably accompany these. The people of Sudan's Darfur region, Congo, Burma, Somalia and Zimbabwe, among others, are dying as they wait for the world to go beyond diplomatic platitudes. One of the Bush Administration's undeniable achievements was a multibillion-dollar increase in AIDS relief for Africa, but rich nations as a whole have not lived up to their Millennium Development Goal promises to end hunger and disease. Mr Obama's appointment of UN ambassador Susan Rice, an advocate of "dramatic intervention" to stop crimes against humanity, could be seen as a signal of intent to bolster, rather than undermine, the UN.

Every conflict represents ongoing political failure. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Middle East, where generations of Israelis and Palestinians have been trapped in a conflict that defies resolution by military means. In the absence of meaningful political dialogue to halt the rockets that threaten its civilians, Israel has resorted to a military assault on Hamas strongholds in Gaza, with disproportionate casualties among Palestinian civilians. Never has the need for the US and other global powers to twist arms to secure a settlement been clearer; rarely have the prospects for peace seemed dimmer. The Obama administration should aim to reclaim the mantle of honest broker, prepared to speak home truths about the concessions needed to achieve a just and secure future for Israelis and Palestinians alike. Outcast nations such as Syria must be induced to be part of the solution.

Concerted diplomatic efforts are also needed to defuse the nuclear threats from Iran and North Korea and to put nuclear rivals India and Pakistan back on the path of rapprochement after the terrorist atrocities in Mumbai. If there is a silver lining to the clouds of global recession, it is that old enemies China, Korea, Japan and Taiwan have already begun improving relations in their desire to co-ordinate their responses. It remains to be seen how China's leaders manage the domestic fallout.

Long after economic hard times are past, the uncertainties of climate change will still confront every nation. A post-Kyoto agreement is due to be struck at a UN summit late next year. In contrast to his obstructionist predecessor, who ensured the US is now the lone dissenter from Kyoto, Mr Obama has talked the talk on climate change. Now he must lead global action. If 2008 was the year the world held its breath to see if the US would elect a leader capable of re-engaging with other nations and global institutions, 2009 will establish the worth of the change that Mr Obama and other leaders are now promising.