Burma’s Bleak Prospect in 2009-IRRAWADDY

http://www.irrawaddy.org/highlight.php?art_id=14860

NEWS ANALYSIS
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By WAI MOE Tuesday, December 30, 2008


All parties in Burma can expect 2009 to be a busier year than the one now ending as the country heads for a general election in 2010, with uncertainty and many more challenges to be faced.

The election will be the fifth stage of the seven-step “road map” to a system of “disciplined democracy” unveiled by the ruling generals in August 2003.


The year 2009 will be consequently quite exciting. The military junta, their cronies and proxy parties will be preparing for victory, applying various strategies to achieve that result.

According to the state-run media, Burmese government ministers and leading members of the regime-backed Union Solidarity and Development Association have been making field trips to rural areas, meeting with local people. These trips were seen as part of the preparations for the coming election.

However, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said in a forecast for Burma that the military junta would face serious challenges ahead of the 2010 election, despite maintaining its firm grip on power in the next two years.

The EIU said the political scene in Burma would be volatile as the public held the military in intense abhorrence because of its handling of the Cyclone Nargis disaster and the military’s brutal suppression of the September 2007 demonstrations.


Diplomats at the UN also hope that democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi will be released from house-arrest in 2009. There are rumors that she could be freed as early as January, perhaps as a strategy to appease western governments and critics before confining her again in her home.

The EIU, however, doesn’t share those hopes or believe the rumors. It said in its December report: “There is little prospect that Aung San Suu Kyi will be released from house-arrest ahead of the election.”

In September 2008, the junta released Suu Kyi’s former associate, the veteran journalist Win Tin, after 18 years’ imprisonment.

After his release, Win Tin attempted to reorganize Suu Ky’s National League for Democracy (NLD). The party re-launched its regular weekly meetings of the Central Executive Committee – since 2003 these meetings had been held randomly.

He also held a regular roundtable called “Youth and the Future” at the party’s headquarters. Suu Kyi had previously participated in the discussions.

Win Tin also visited family members of political prisoners to offer moral support. This initiative, called the “White Campaign,” was previously carried out by the 88 Generation Students group led by prominent pro- democracy activist Min Ko Naing and former student leaders, most of whom are now in jail.

It is expected that the NLD will become more dynamic in 2009, and some party members expect reforms that will replace ageing leaders with younger people.

So far, however, the NLD has kept quiet about the election. It did call in September, though, for a review by the regime of the military-sponsored constitution.

Predicting Burma’s future is not easy, although the EIU said in its report: “Nevertheless, it is still unlikely that any attempt to overthrow the military would succeed, as the armed forces can be expected to remain vigilant and will crack down hard on any signs of gathering protest.”

It added that internal conflict is the most likely obstacle to smooth progress by the military in implementing its plans.

The health of junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe is a factor in the election run-up, the EIU suggests.

By making two trips within as many recent weeks to the cyclone-devastated Irrawaddy delta, Than Shwe has shown the world, however, that he’s in good health and that he remains firmly in control. Burma’s future thus remains as bleak as ever.