THAILAND IN TURMOIL

On the brink of becoming a failed state
PAVIN CHACHAVALPONGPUN



Is Thailand at risk of turning into a ''failed state''? The current political crisis suggests the existence of certain indicators of the state's vulnerability to collapse amid unending conflict. The People's Alliance for Democracy has pledged to oppose any members of the ruling People Power party from leading a new government, including new Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, the brother-in-law of Thaksin Shinawatra; the latter was ousted in a military coup two years ago today, and is at present a fugitive from Thai law residing in London.


The PAD accuses the PPP executives of working as agents of Mr Thaksin and is continuing its crusade to uproot his political legacy. But getting rid of Mr Thaksin's political influence seems to be a ''mission impossible'', considering his strong support at the grassroots level.


This political zero-sum game led to a serious confrontation between the PAD and the pro-government camp, the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), which is believed to be backed by some factions of the PPP.


The military, despite possessing absolute control under the state of emergency decree (which was announced on Sept 2 and lifted on Sept 14), has declined to use force against the protesters.


But a fresh coup d'etat should not be discounted if the crisis deteriorates and the country slips into a political coma.


The Democrat party's proposal of a ''national unity'' government failed to make itself attractive. The PPP has no reason to hand over its majority rule to the opposition.


Meanwhile, the Thai economy has been badly affected by the political unrest, with the tourism industry being hit hardest. Some foreign investors have cast doubts over the country's long-term political stability and threatened to curb manufacturing orders, which could have a devastating impact on the export sector.


These are the symptoms that insinuate Thailand is experiencing conditions of a state collapse.


What is a failed state? Noam Chomsky defines it as a state whose central government is so weak or ineffective that it has little practical control over much of its territory. According to Max Weber, a state could be said to succeed if it maintains a monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force within its borders. When this is broken, such as through the domination of warlords and terrorists, the very existence of the state becomes dubious; and the state could become a failure.


A failed state also implies the conditions in which a state has been rendered ineffective and is unable to enforce its laws uniformly because of many reasons, including extreme political corruption, military interference in politics and grave political situations in which non-state actors wield more power than the state.


Since 2005, the US-based Fund for Peace and the magazine Foreign Affairs have jointly published an annual ''Failed State Index'' based on a number of social, economic and political indicators of state vulnerability. The indicators are not designed to forecast when states may experience violence or collapse. They are instead meant to measure a state's vulnerability to collapse and conflict.


In the Thai case, certain conditions indicate that the country may be on the brink of collapse. The current political struggle appears to have derived from a legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievances. The PAD, while presenting itself as a defender of democracy, accused the Thaksin regime of committing power abuse, corruption and leaning towards authoritarianism. But the PAD is also acting on behalf of the Bangkok elite, who have embarked upon a vengeance mission against Mr Thaksin, simply because he was considered a threat to their power.


Although Thailand is not experiencing sharp or severe economic decline, the ongoing political wrangle has already badly impacted the economy.


The Thai Tourism Services Association revealed that the number of international arrivals in recent weeks has fallen by 70%. Hotel room occupancy has dropped by 30-40%, evidently in the aftermath of the closure of airports in Phuket, Krabi and Hat Yai late last month. Tourism accounts for 6.5% of the country's gross domestic product. The estimated loss to tourism and related service industries has been more than 42 billion baht.


Other symptoms of a failed state are also seen in the Thai case. The country has suffered endemic corruption by the ruling elite and their resistance to transparency and accountability. Court cases against the Shinawatra family reaffirm the deep-rooted corrupt practices, leading to a widespread loss of public confidence in state institutions and due process.


The governments under the Thai Rak Thai party and the PPP, despite winning landslide elections, adopted certain authoritarian characteristics in which constitutional and democratic institutions and processes were manipulated. There were attempts to use nationalistic political rhetoric by the ruling elite, often in terms of forcing communal solidarity, to serve its own legitimacy. On top of this, the media was often silenced for its critical comments on the governments.


Meanwhile, the emergence of the PAD which has operated with impunity also contributes to the possibility of Thailand becoming a failed state. A large portion of civilians is seen to be sympathetic to the PAD, even endorsing its ''New Politics'' that could take Thai democracy back a few decades to the time when despots thrived.


The PAD supported the unions' strike to disrupt essential services, such as public transportation, electricity and water supplies. The aim was to put the blame on the government for being unable to maintain basic state functions that serve the people.


Certain Asian countries are listed as failed states in this year's index, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Burma, North Korea and Sri Lanka.


Although Thailand has not yet got itself onto the list even when there seems to be no solution in sight to the crisis, the country is likely to be put under a ''warning'' status that suggests a likelihood of it turning into a failed state.


It is really up to the ruling leaders and the opposition to work their way out of this political deadlock. The final destination is indeed not so much about getting away from the Failed State Index, but about getting our lives back on track and living like civilised citizens of the world.


Dr Pavin Chachavalpongpun is a Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.