Can he last?

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A former judge and a former permanent secretary, new Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat is a first-time MP with only seven months under his belt. He may run into a fog in terms of priorities and how to deal with the slew of problems for the ruling party.



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By Nattaya Chetchotiros
President of the Thai Journalists Association and Assistant News Editor, Bangkok Post



The days of uncertainty are finally over, with Somchai Wongsawat, the People Power party's (PPP) deputy leader, emerging from political obscurity to succeed Samak Sundaravej, who exited the premiership in disgrace. But the ship of state with Mr Somchai at the helm could be headed for a violent vortex, whipped up by growing sentiment against another "nominee" prime minister.



It's no secret that one reason why Mr Samak did not last very long in the prime minister's seat was in part due to his openness about his alignment with the coup-ousted prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra. Mr Samak went on record as Mr Thaksin's proxy and with such a label his opponents kept hounding him with criticism, which chiselled awayat his credibility.


The force of the "proxy" criticism will hit Mr Somchai a lot harder, as he is Mr Thaksin's brother-in-law. The husband of Mr Thaksin's younger sister, Yaowapa, has put himself on a collision course with the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which has staged a marathon protest against what it calls a puppet government controlled by remote from London, where Mr Thaksin is now in exile after jumping bail in a corruption trial.



The PAD will be on Mr Somchai's back and will have a field day digging into his past, his every track record, and exposing any and every piece of dirty linen there might be.



Mr Somchai has been on the receiving end from party factions since Mr Samak's departure. He has reportedly been forced to bow to conditions from the camp in the PPP controlled by the influential former Thai Rak Thai party executive, Newin Chidchob, in return for the faction's support for him to secure the premiership.



Seventy-three MPs answer to the Newin-linked faction, which explains why Mr Somchai could not afford to let the group switch its backing to another candidate when it came to voting for prime minister in parliament.



Mr Somchai has agreed to allocate two ministerial posts to the faction, in addition to four deputy minister portfolios promised earlier.



Once Mr Somchai is sworn in as the country's 26th prime minister and the celebrations are over, the faction will come forth with its demand that he honour his word by handing them the cabinet seats.



Mr Samak and Mr Somchai appear to share a goal. Near the end of Mr Samak's days in office, he organised continuous commemorative events to be held between Her Majesty the Queen's birthday on Aug 12, and His Majesty the King's birthday on Dec 5. It would seem Mr Samak had envisioned his stint at least stretching past Dec 5, when a prime minister leads a delegation of officials in celebrating His Majesty's birthday, a duty of the highest esteem. But his hopes have been dashed.



By comparison, Mr Samak possessed far more political clout than Mr Somchai does, and many have begun to wonder whether the latter will even survive the next few months as prime minister.



Mr Somchai is not an abrasive character, nor is he adept at mobilising crowds, such as the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), whose members clashed with the PAD at the height of the recent political tensions.



Mr Somchai displayed his concern for the PAD and, in doing so, has shown he is a non-confrontational figure who would never adopt a violent approach in solving problems. However, his efforts to express a compromising disposition may not be enough to win over the PAD, which has vowed a protracted rally against any prime minister picked from the PPP basket.



A former judge and a former permanent secretary, Mr Somchai has only been an MP for the last seven months, after his first election. Despite advice and coaching from many of the 111 former Thai Rak Thai executives now deprived of election rights as a result of that party having committed electoral fraud, Mr Somchai may well be running into a fog in terms of priorities and how he can deal with the slew of problems for the party.



It is not clear whether he intends to stay in office long enough for Her Royal Highness Princess Galyani Vadhana's funeral in November, or whether he plans to keep his government intact till Dec 5.



Then, there is the nagging question as to when - not if - he thinks he should dissolve parliament: before or after the Constitution Court passes its judgement on the PPP, which is accused of poll fraud in the Dec 23 general election. The case is being investigated by the prosecution and it may not be too long before it is forwarded to the court.



The Somchai government's lifeline may hinge on the length of the court's deliberation, which could take up to four months, although many experts feel it would be a lot shorter. The court may not dwell much on the case since the Election Commission has, with a unanimous vote, ruled that the PPP should be disbanded. A dissolution of the party could come sooner rather than later.



Mr Somchai's first test of leadership will be selecting the people to be in his cabinet. Some critics are dismissive of his ability to cherry-pick capable individuals for the new line-up, which they remarked could be far less presentable than those under the Samak administration. With his limited bargaining power with the various factions, Mr Somchai has even less choice and freedom than Mr Samak did in shopping around for potential ministers.



Mr Somchai also has to convince parliament on the day he divulges his government's policies, about his plan to reconcile differences in this bitterly-divided society. Unless he can make the pro-government movement listen to him, he cannot guarantee to keep civil unrest under the lid.



On the economic front, Mr Somchai needs to soothe investors' nerves and assure them of the strength of the Thai economy in the face of the massive financial crunch in the United States.



Mr Somchai has been compared to the other two S's - Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee and Justice Minister Sompong Amornwiwat - who were also favourites to replace Mr Samak. While some regard him as the best fit for the top job, there is no one better to comment on his confidence in the new role than Mr Somchai himself.