News &Articles on Burma-Thursday, 09 February 2010-uzl

News &Articles on Burma Thursday, 09 February 2010 ----------------------------------------------- Don't rush to Burma, firms told The master plan for Myanmar SSA: Burma Army downgrading government peace efforts Myanmar's Defence Chief Meets Visiting Malaysian Counterpart After a decade ban, Mon revel in Rangoon Burma pledges full release of dissidents Hillary Clinton Meets Zaganar ABSDF Holds Peace Talks with Govt KNU Divided Over Peace Treaty EU says Burma elections a test of credibility Is Burma seeking a role in U.S. war games? Myanmar changes not like Arab Spring: State media -------------------------------------- Don't rush to Burma, firms told Lindsay Murdoch, South-east Asia Correspondent February 10, 2012 BURMA'S hardliners and reformers are locked in an intensifying power struggle as pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi warns foreign businesses against rushing to invest in the impoverished country. ''I think [business people] should wait and see a little, for their own good as well as the country,'' Ms Suu Kyi said in Rangoon, where hotels are full, mostly with visiting business delegations. ''I think it's not just a matter of potential investments but also a matter of the potential of the country to cope with the investments,'' she said. Referring to Burma's corrupt judicial system, she told heads of large Asian corporations that ''it's no good having good investment laws if you don't have a good judicial system to make sure the laws are applied.'' Earlier this week US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton signed a waiver that will make it easier for the World Bank and other multilateral institutions to advise Burma on reforms. After 50 years of international isolation and disastrous military rule, Burma offers the least legal protection for foreign companies and investors of any country, a report by the risk analysis firm Maplecroft says. Ms Suu Kyi repeated comments that the reforms implemented since August last year are not ''past the point where you can say it's irreversible''. ''We are going to have to make it irreversible ... that's why we are contesting in the byelections.'' Ms Suu Kyi, daughter of Burma's independence hero Aung San, is campaigning for a seat in elections scheduled for April 1. Analysts say her message of political freedom and democracy could snowball into a groundswell of support for more aggressive reforms. But Burma's Railways Minister, Aung Min, who has played a key role in negotiating peace deals with armed ethnic groups, has confirmed reports of the power struggle in the capital, Naypyidaw, telling Thailand-based exiles that reforms implemented by President Thein Sein had met with stiff opposition from within the government, the Irrawaddy newspaper run by Burmese exiles reported. Reports have emerged from within the military-dominated government recently that hardliners led by Vice-President Tin Aung Myint Oo want to derail reforms. Some of the hardliners who were close to ageing military strongman Than Shwe before he retired are said to be upset at the recent release of about 2000 political prisoners. There has been heated debate about the release in the powerful 11-member National Defence and Security Council, which is co-chaired by Thein Sein, according to informed reports. Hardliners wanted the prisoner releases to occur after the April by-elections for more than 40 parliamentary seats. They are said to be poised to attack the reformers if social unrest or political demonstrations breaks out, reports say. But at least 60 per cent of government ministers are sitting on the fence, waiting to see who wins the power struggle, several reliable analysts say. http://www.watoday.com.au/world/dont-rush-to-burma-firms-told-20120209-1rwp8.html ------------------------------------- ASIA TIMES ONLINE: Feb 10, 2012 The master plan for Myanmar By Bertil Lintner BANGKOK - Myanmar is winning more foreign friends while international criticism of the current and previous government's abysmal human rights records has all but ceased. Old adversaries in the United States and European Union have scrapped - or are planning to scrap - economic sanctions against the regime, and big-time multinational companies are preparing to lunge into what many seems to believe is Asia's last investment frontier. A nearly unanimous Western world has heaped praise on President Thein Sein's supposed moves towards "democratic reform" and "national reconciliation". But what has actually changed and what's behind the hype? In near unison, the international community condemned the Myanmar regime for its brutal repression of Buddhist monk-led pro-democracy protests in 2007, its initial callous response to the Cyclone Nargis disaster in 2008 - when a widely condemned sham referendum on a new constitution was held in the killer storm's wake - and a blatantly rigged general election swept by military-backed candidates in November 2010. One theory goes that the administration is locked in a power struggle between military "hardliners" and "reformers", and that the latter, at least for now, have the upper hand. Several Western countries have apparently taken the policy decision that every effort should therefore be made to support the "reformers" and recent reform signals to ensure that Myanmar doesn't return to its old repressive ways. The EU and US have expressed public views to that effect. On January 31, EU president Herman Van Rompuy said in a statement after a summit in Brussels: "I welcome the important changes taking place in Burma/Myanmar and encourage its government to maintain its determination to continue on the path of reform." The US State Department said the day before that it was "encouraged " by Myanmar's recent reforms, "including its decision to allow opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to run in upcoming elections". Others, however, suspect that the signs emerging from Myanmar's leadership reflects a well-orchestrated "good cop, bad-cop" routine to neutralize domestic opposition and win new foreign allies, especially among former critics in the West. Either way, Thein Sein's regime has so far skillfully played its cards in a way that few, probably even among themselves, could have foreseen. "Those in power are military men, not representatives of a democratic government. This is how they work," says a Myanmar national who has followed political developments for decades. Well laid plans In order to understand Myanmar's policy shift - and why the West has been so supportive - it is instructive to look back to the early 2000s. Then condemned and pressured by the international community, the ruling military junta announced in August 2003 a seven-step "Roadmap to Discipline-Flourishing Democracy." That plan called for the drafting of a new constitution, general elections, and convention of a new parliament which would "elect state leaders" charged with building "a modern, developed and democratic nation". The "roadmap" was made public, but at the same time a confidential "master plan" which outlined ways and means to deal with both the international community, especially the US, and domestic opposition was also drawn up. The authors of that plan are not known but an internal military document written by Lt Col Aung Kyaw Hla, who is identified as a researcher at the country's prestigious Defense Services Academy, was completed and circulated in 2004. The Burmese-language document, received and reviewed by this writer, outlines the thinking and strategy behind the master plan. It is, however, unclear whether "Aung Kyaw Hla" is a particular person, or a codename used by a military think-tank. Anecdotal evidence suggests the latter. Entitled "A Study of Myanmar-US Relations", the main thesis of the 346-page dossier is that Myanmar's recent reliance on China as a diplomatic ally and economic patron has created a "national emergency" which threatens the country's independence. According to the dossier, Myanmar must normalize relations with the West after implementing the roadmap and electing a government so that the regime can deal with the outside world on more acceptable terms. Evidently the internal thinking was that normalization with the West would not be possible as long as Myanmar was ruled by military juntas. Aung Kyaw Hla goes on to argue in the master plan that although human rights are a concern in the West, the US would be willing to modify its policy to suit "strategic interests". Although the author does not specify those interests, it is clear from the thesis that he is thinking of common ground with the US vis-a-vis China. The author cites Vietnam and Indonesia under former dictator Suharto as examples of US foreign policy flexibility in weighing strategic interests against democratization. If bilateral relations with the US were improved, the master plan suggests, Myanmar would also get access to badly needed funds from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and other global financial institutions. The country would then emerge from "regionalism", where it currently depends on the goodwill and trade of its immediate neighbors, including China, and enter a new era of "globalization". The master plan is acutely aware of the problems that must be addressed before Myanmar can lessen its reliance on China and become a trusted partner with the West. The main issue at the time of writing was the detention of pro-democracy icon Suu Kyi, who Aung Kyaw Hla wrote was a key "focal point": "Whenever she is under detention pressure increases, but when she is not, there is less pressure." While the report implies Suu Kyi's release would improve ties with the West, the plan's ultimate aim - which it spells out clearly - is to "crush" the opposition. At the same time, the dossier identifies individuals, mostly Western academics, known for their opposition to the West's sanctions policy, and somewhat curiously suggests that "friendly" Indian diplomats could be helpful in providing background information about influential US congressmen. The dossier concludes that the regime cannot compete with the media and non-governmental organizations run by Myanmar exiles, but if US politicians and lawmakers were invited to visit the country they could help to sway international opinion in the regime's favor. Over the years, many Americans have visited Myanmar and often left less critical of the regime than they were previously. In the end, it seems that Myanmar has successfully managed to engage the US rather than vice versa. Institutional Sinophobia Aung Kaw Hla's internal thesis is the first clear sign of dissatisfaction with the regime's close ties with China, which, in part, were forged because the West downgraded its relations with Myanmar after massacres of pro-democracy demonstrators in 1988 and other gross human-rights violations. More signs of a worsening relationship could be discerned in internal reports that began to circulate within the military in 2010. China, until then praised as a dependable ally, was beginning to be viewed increasingly as the root of Myanmar's many ills, from the rape of the country's forests to rampant drug trafficking. China's close ties with the United Wa State Army, Myanmar's main drug-trafficking militia, has not go unnoticed by the authorities in Naypyidaw. Then, in September 2011, came Thein Sein's decision to suspend the China-backed US$3.6 billion joint-venture Myitsone dam project in the far north of the country. Seen from a US perspective, encouraging Myanmar to move away from China became a priority when Naypyidaw showed that it was willing to engage with the US. Washington was also eager to undermine Myanmar's disturbing military ties with North Korea. Not surprisingly, North Korea was high on the agenda when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Myanmar last December. The last of several recorded attempts to ship weaponry from North Korea to Myanmar took place in May and June 2011, several months after the supposedly "reformist" Thein Sein became president and after government officials had claimed that there was no military cooperation with North Korea. On May 26, the USS McCampbell caught up with M/V Light, a Myanmar-bound North Korean cargo vessel suspected of carrying missile parts and possibly other military equipment. The US destroyer approached the ship and asked to board but the North Koreans refused. The first encounter took place in the sea south of Shanghai and a few days later closer to Singapore. The M/V Light eventually stopped and turned back to its home port in North Korea - all the way tracked by US surveillance planes and satellites. After that incident - and incentives from the US such as easing restrictions on Naypyidaw's access to multilateral lending institutions - there has been no known attempt by North Korea to ship weapons to Myanmar. And the US is no doubt taking full advantage of Myanmar's drift away from China. "What the US is trying to do is to send every signal of support to the forces pushing for liberalization in Burma," said Robert Fitts, a former US diplomat in the region now attached to Thailand's Chulalongkorn university. The US will soon send a new ambassador to Myanmar, representing an upgrade of diplomatic relations. On February 7, the New York Times quoted US officials as saying that the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), David Petraeus, may visit Myanmar later this year. The CIA is not exactly known for being a leading proponent and promoter of liberal values in the developing world; the agency has other priorities such as Myanmar's strategic importance to the US. But therein lies a danger, which Aung Kyaw Hla outlined in his thesis of more than seven years ago. If Myanmar does manage to improve bilateral relations with the US, China could counteract in a way that threatens Myanmar's integrity and independence. A balanced approach is therefore needed, Aung Kyaw Hla argued, but it was not set out in the master plan how that balance may be achieved. Well-worn routine There are other reasons to doubt that Myanmar's new policies will work over the long term. While the international community appears to fall for the latest incarnation of the regime's well-worn good cop, bad cop routine, local and exiled mainstream opposition groups are less likely to be so gullible. One of the supposed "good cops" in Myanmar's current nominally civilian leadership is former Maj Gen Aung Min, currently the railway minister, who has been tasked with shuttling back and forth between Myanmar and Thailand to meet with influential exiled dissidents. Some of those who have recently met him are deeply suspicious of his motives and the less conciliatory signals sent from the regime's "bad cops". They note that Aung Min once served under Tin U, Myanmar's powerful intelligence chief until he was ousted in 1983, ostensibly for corrupt practices but more likely because he had built up a state within a state that threatened the leadership of former junta leader Gen Ne Win. Writing in the Far Eastern Economic Review in 1983, British journalist Rodney Tasker characterized Tin U and his intelligence colleagues as "men of the world compared with other more short-sighted, dogmatic figures in the Burmese [Myanmar] leadership. They were allowed to travel abroad, talk freely to foreigners and generally look behind the rigid confines of the current regime." But they were also known to be ruthless and extremely skilled at manipulating their enemies and adversaries. Tin U himself was trained by the CIA on the US-held Pacific island of Saipan in 1957. Aung Min somehow survived the 1983 purge and moved to join Myanmar's Intelligence Battalion 21 in 1992. He was with the 66th Light Infantry Division in 2000, was elevated to Southern Commander of the Myanmar Army in 2001, and became railway minister in 2003 under the previous military junta led by Gen Than Shwe. In today's context, solving the long-burning ethnic issue will be key to realizing the master plan's ultimate vision of keeping the military in power. One of the supposed "bad cops" in the current power configuration is Aung Thaung, another peace negotiator, who met ethnic Kachin rebel leaders in Ruili in southwestern China earlier this year. A former heavy industry minister, he is believed by many to have been one of the architects behind a 2003 mob attack on Suu Kyi and her colleagues in Depayin that left scores of her supporters dead and wounded. "The good cop" Aung Min did not attend the talks in Ruili but some analysts suggest may later step in to "rescue" the talks with a softer approach. Whether Myanmar's many rebellious ethnic minorities will accept these well-known personalities and well-worn negotiating tactics remains to be seen. The fact that the government has consistently refused to even consider a federal structure does not bode well for reaching lasting agreements with armed groups. The 2008 constitution lays down the fundamentals for a centralized state structure where the military is a main, if not dominant, player. Thus the recent euphoria over recent "reforms" in Myanmar may therefore be short-lived. Unless the present constitution is scrapped or widely amended, which is extremely unlikely due to the military's de facto veto power in parliament, Myanmar's ethnic issue will likely remain unsolved. And if the country becomes an arena of competition between the US and China, there will certainly be more trouble ahead - as Aung Kyaw Hla warned in his master plan now being put into practice. Bertil Lintner is a former correspondent with the Far Eastern Economic Review and author of several books on Burma/Myanmar, including Aung San Suu Kyi and Burma's Struggle for Democracy (Published in 2011). He is currently a writer with Asia-Pacific Media Services. http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/NB10Ae01.html --------------------------------------------- SSA leader: Burma Army downgrading government peace efforts Thursday, 09 February 2012 11:51 S.H.A.N. Burma Army units have been in a drive to and to dislodge units of Shan State Army (SSA) that had concluded a ceasefire agreement on 2 December in Shan State East, according to Lt-Gen Yawdserk, Chairman of the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), the SSA's political arm. "The agreement with the government is that we stay out of towns and the Burma Army out of the countryside," he said, "and that movements outside of one's sphere of control must be notified in advance to the other. This is a deliberate act of discredit against the government." According to SSA sources, SSA units in Shan State East are under relentless pressure to withdraw to their main bases along the Thai-Burmese border. Inevitably, the drive resulted in clashes: one on 6 February near South Monghai, Tachilek district and the other on 7 February in Mongpulong, Mongpiang township. "I have lodged a protest with the Triangle Region Command in Kengtung," said the SSA leader. "So far no reply has been forthcoming." The SSA's liaison officer in Kengtung, Shan State East capital and headquarters of the Triangle Region Command, is Col Aung Mawng. All SSA units have been placed on a state of alert since. "Now we are learning first hand how the Burma Army is flouting ceasefire orders coming from Naypyitaw in Kachin State," said an SSA officer who requested anonymity. "It should serve as another warning for all movements that have signed ceasefire agreements." So far, Naypyitaw has concluded ceasefire pacts with 8 armed movements (though 2 say they have only reached initial agreement to discuss for durable ceasefire). It is still in negotiation with two other main groups: Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) and Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP). http://www.english.panglong.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4404:ssa-leader-burma-army-downgrading-government-peace-efforts&catid=85:politics&Itemid=266 ------------------------------------ February 09, 2012 15:21 PM Myanmar's Defence Chief Meets Visiting Malaysian Counterpart NAY PYI TAW, Feb 9 (BERNAMA-NNN-MNA) --The Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services of Myanmar, General Min Aung Hlaing, met the visiting Chief of Defence Forces of the Malaysian Armed Forces, General Zulkefli bin Mohamed Zin, at Zeyathiri Beikman here Tuesday. Gen Min Aung Hlaing said Myanmar and Malaysia had been strengthening friendly ties for many years and both countries are members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean). He added that defence services personnel representatives are attending the two houses of the Myanmar and regional and State legislatures in accordance with provisions of the constitution of Myanmar. He explained that the Tatmadaw (Armed Forces) were systematically participating in the endeavours for establishment of a discipline-flourishing, modern and developed democratic nation which is the primary goal of the nation, and various countries recognize the participation of the Tatmadaw. He said sports teams of both armed forces will be exchanged for promoting bilateral relations. Myanmar is maintaining cordial relations with neighbouring countries and global countries, including Asean member countries, he added. Gen Zulkefli voiced his appreciation for the warm welcome he and his entourage received. He expressed his amazement at the progress of Nay Pyi Taw. He believed that Myanmar will host the XXVII SEA Games in 2013 and assume the Chairmanship of Asean in 2014 successfully. He said his visit is aimed at raising friendly relations between the two armed forces and the two countries. He also noted that he is delighted with the undertaking of various tasks for unity in Myanmar. At the welcoming ceremony held earlier, the two generals took the salute and inspected the Guard of Honour. -- BERNAMA-NNN-MNA http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v6/newsworld.php?id=644558 --------------------------------- After a decade ban, Mon revel in Rangoon By NANG MYA NADI Published: 9 February 2012 Mon children attend a ceremony in Mawlamyaing village near the Thailand-Burma border in 2007 (Reuters) Ethnic Mon gathered en masse in Rangoon yesterday to mark the first public celebration of Mon National Day in more than a decade, after the government relaxed a ban first enacted in a bid to clamp down on displays of ethnic nationalism in mainland Burma. Hundreds gathered at the People's Square and Park in the former capital to watch traditional dance shows and tuck into Mon food. The decision to allow celebrations to go ahead follows the signing of a tentative ceasefire agreement between the government and the armed New Mon State Party (NMSP) in late January. Nai Pe Tin, chairman of the event's organising committee, said that the decision to drop the ban was another sign of the pseudo-civilian government's attempts to reach out to ethnic groups. After 2009 the regime had begun to roll back restrictions on Mon National Day, but until yesterday continued to block public events. Naypyidaw has moved to secure a number of ceasefire deals with rebel armies which ostensibly represent the interests of millions of disparate minority populations who have long been persecuted by the government. Meals were offered to monks in the Mon state capital of Moulmein, while migrant workers as far afield as Bangkok marked the day, which celebrates the founding in 573 CE of Hanthawaddy, the Mon kingdom, with smaller ceremonies. The NMSP, which was formed in 1962, agreed to a ceasefire with the former junta in 1995, but relations have dramatically fluctuated since 2010 when the government demanded that the NMSP become a Border Guard Force. The January agreement, while not a formal ceasefire, could pave the way for an official truce once planned future negotiations take place. http://www.dvb.no/news/after-a-decade-ban-mon-revel-in-rangoon/20164 -------------------------------------- Burma pledges full release of dissidents By FRANCIS WADE Published: 9 February 2012 Political prisoners seen leaving the gates of Insein jail in the 13 January amnesty (Reuters) Fears over the fallout from a UN report detailing the human rights situation in Burma, and which is being delivered in March by rights' envoy Tomas Ojea Quintana, may have spurred the government into promising the release of all "prisoners of conscience". Parliamentary speaker Shwe Mann is quoted by the domestic Weekly Eleven journal as acknowledging that the 13 January amnesty of political prisoners might not have been all-encompassing. Shwe Mann, a powerful figure in the government and former third-in-command of the junta that ceded power in March last year, met with Quintana during his visit last week. The parliamentary speaker was reportedly pressed by the envoy to come clean on the remaining dissidents behind bars, to which he replied: "We said that the latest prisoner release was based on the list of the NLD [National League for Democracy], and the remaining prisoners of conscience might be those who breached laws," he said. The wording of the statement appears to be an admittance that highly arbitrary laws have been used to jail opposition figures, something long denied by a government known for criminalising freedom of speech and media. "However, I promised him that more prisoners of conscience would be examined and released if the NLD provides a list of them," he continued. The categorisation of the thousands of opposition figures that were jailed in Burma during military rule has been a topic of hot debate: the government has long refused to acknowledge the presence of 'political prisoners', but has begrudgingly adopted the term 'prisoners of conscience' in recent months. Like the NLD, however, it rejects the notion that detainees jailed for committing or intending to commit violent acts, such as rebel soldiers, can be classed 'prisoners of conscience'. However Shwe Mann appears to concede, perhaps inadvertently, that highly arbitrary laws, if any, were used to jail opposition figures Prior to the January amnesty, the party produced a list of 591 political prisoners, only 299 of which were freed. Around 300 others released were former intelligence agents and customs officials purged after the fall of ex-prime minister Khin Nyunt, and whose jailing, despite being largely on charges of corruption, was likely politically motivated. Quintana, who was able to visit the notorious Insein prison in Rangoon, said upon his departure on 5 January that despite a "wave of reforms" in recent months, "serious challenges remain". He is due to submit a report to the UN in March in which he will examine the continuing obstacles to democracy in a country where many top government ministers held senior ranks in the former junta. The issue of the remaining political prisoners, among whom are nearly 50 monks, is seen as problematic for western countries increasingly keen to engage with the government -- both the EU and US say their release must come before the dropping of sanctions. http://www.dvb.no/news/burma-pledges-full-release-of-dissidents/20169 ----------------------------------------- Hillary Clinton Meets Zaganar By SAW YAN NAING and LALIT K JHA/ THE IRRAWADDY Thursday, February 9, 2012 US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with three well-known Burmese activists including comedian Zarganar on Thursday in Washtington DC, according to a press release by the US State Department. Clinton greeted the Burmese comedian who was recently freed from prison, as well as National League for Democracy empowerment activist Khin Than Myint, and National Democratic Front Kachin ethnic minority rights activist Daw Bauk Gyar. The Burmese dissidents discussed the issues of political prisoners, womens rights, and ethnic minorities in Burma with senior officials. It was great, said an excited Khin Than Myint after her meeting with Clinton. I told her that we really appreciate her support, especially for democracy, human rights and women rights. I think she is really interested in womens affairs, that is why I encouraged her to promote the status of women in Burma, she said. Speaking to The Irrawaddy immediately after the meeting at the Foggy Bottom headquarters of the State Department, Zarganar said, This is the very start of improvement in our country. We wish it to go forward. It is very important for us, Noting that national reconciliation is vitally important for the people of Burma, Zarganar said that both the Burmese government and the opposition should show good will. Clinton previously met Zarganar in Rangoon in December when he was participating in a civil society roundtable. During his first foreign trip to Thailand, Zarganar said that the lifting of Western sanctions will bring more foreign aid to Burma, but balked when asked if he would formally join the political arena and run for Parliament. During the military regime under Than Shwe rule, Zarganar was an outspoken critic of the government. Prior to his release, Zarganar was serving a 24-year prison sentence in Myitkyina Prison in Kachin State, northern Burma, for publicly criticizing the slow and ineffective government relief efforts in the wake of Cyclone Nargis in 2008. http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=23001 ---------------------------------------- ABSDF Holds Peace Talks with Govt By SAW YAN NAING / THE IRRAWADDY Thursday, February 9, 2012 ABSDF fighters at the frontline in Karenni State. (Photo: Paddy OHanlon) Leaders of armed dissident group, the All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF), held their first ever negotiations with a Burmese government delegation on Thursday at the Thai-Burmese border, and agreed to a further round of talks aimed at a ceasefire and a peace agreement. Speaking to The Irrawaddy after the historic meeting in Mae Sot, ABSDF Vice-chairman Myo Win said the day's talks with Naypyidaw's Union-level Peace Discussion Group were a first step, but that no agreement had been signed. He confirmed that both sides had agreed to further negotiations. We received an agreement from them [government peace delegation] to hold further talks in Yangon, he said. And we agreed to solve political problems by political means. He said that no date had yet been set for the second round of talks. The ABSDF was established by Burmese university student activists in 1988 after they fled to Burmas border regions in the wake of a crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators. The government delegation was led by Saw Khin Soe, a retired army officer, in place of Aung Thaung, the head of the Naypyidaw peace delegation, who was unable to attend. We can say that we spoke frankly to each other and with respect, said Myo Win, a former Rangoon University student who joined the ABSDF at its forming nearly 24 years ago. The ABSDF is allied with ethnic rebels such as the Karen National Union (KNU) and the Karenni National Progressive Party, both of which helped students in 1988 when they arrived at the Thai-Burmese border by providing shelter, food, weapons and training. The Naypyidaw peace delegation has already reached ceasefire agreements with several armed ethnic groups, including the KNU, Shan State ArmySouth and the United Wa State Army. http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/SEAsia/Story/STIStory_764772.html -------------------------------------- KNU Divided Over Peace Treaty By SAW YAN NAING / THE IRRAWADDY Thursday, February 9, 2012 Disagreement within the Karen rebel leadership over its recent signing of a truce with a Burmese government peace delegation has led to confusion. Nineteen members of the Karen National Union, led by its military chief Gen. Mutu Say Poe, signed on Jan. 12 a ceasefire agreement with Burmese government peace delegation in Karen capital, Pa-an, without the consensus of other top KNU officials. Brig-Gen Saw Johnny, the commander of Brigade 7 of the KNU's military wing, Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), was involved in the negotiations in Pa-an. He told The Irrawaddy that the KNU delegation signed an 11-point agreement, including an immediate ceasefire, with the Burmese government delegation. He said that the KNU delegation signed the agreement to end hostilities between the Burmese army and the KNLA. How can we proceed with peace talks if we dont stop fighting each other, Johnny said. Now the government officials are able to travel freely to our areas and visit us. They also ordered their troops not to attack our units. But this is just the first step of many, he added. We dont know for how many months or years we will have to continue this process of peace talks. However, hardline KNU leaders are believed to be unhappy with the agreement, complaining that it is too early to trust the new government, and that the Burmese army have not withdrawn their battalions from Karen areas. They, however, agreed to hold further talk with the Burmese peace delegation perhaps in Naypyidaw in late February. Sources close to the KNU leadership say that the hardliners include Vice-president David Takapaw and General-secretary Zipporah Sein who insist the Burmese army withdraw all its troops from Karen State before calling a ceasefire. Speaking to The Irrawaddy on Tuesday, Zipporah Sein denied that a ceasefire agreement was signed in Pa-an. However, she said that an agreement to hold further ceasefire talks was signed. The KNU's president, Tamla Baw, Vice-chairman David Takapaw, General-secretary Zipporah Sein, and Joint General-secretary 1 Saw Hla Ngwe are believed to be the main hardline faction that rejects the ceasefire. According to sources close to the KNU, the KNU representatives who attended the peace talks in Pa-an included Saw David Taw, Gen. Mutu Say Poe, Saw Ah Toe, Saw Roger Khin, and Brig-Gen Johnny. One source said that these were the pragmatic faction of the KNU, and that they wanted to test the water. However, other Karen sources said that this faction appears more interested in development and business opportunities in Karen State. Sources said some Karen communities are worried that the ceasefire will only benefit the government, politically and economically. Various sources from within the Karen community say they believe the KNU delegation signed an agreement which was conducive to their own interests but not to those of the KNU or of the Karen people. But the KNU peace delegation maintains that they are motivated by a series of political reforms in Burma, and that they take encouragement from the recognition of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the release of political prisoners, and the government's concessions on media and Burmese dissidents. Saw David Taw, a Pa-an signatory, on behalf of the peace delegation, noted that the KNU's previous ceasefire in 2004 had been a verbal agreement. He said he believed the Jan. 12 agreement was evidence of steps toward a real peace. His colleague, Brig-Gen Johnny, said that the Burmese government needed to prove their political commitment to the world. I think the government is in a real political crisis, he said. It seems like they really need to enact reforms. Since the Jan. 12 agreement, government troops have been given access by the KNU to receive supplies and rations in Karen State. In the past, Karen guerrillas had been largely successful in cutting government army supply lines. However, some grassroots organizations close to the KNU say they are worried the Burmese army will launch a series of severe attacks to wipe out KNLA bases once they stock up on rations, supplies and manpower. Brig-Gen Johnny maintained that it was very difficult to persuade the government to withdraw all its troops from the region, and said that the KNU and Naypyidaw were embarking on a journey of building bilateral trust. We have been fighting each other for more than 60 years, so we cannot resolve all the issues in just one or two days, he said. We need more time to build trust. If the government break their word, the ceasefire can be broken at any time, he added. http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=23004 ------------------------------------- RADIO AUSTRALIA NEWS EU says Burma elections a test of credibility Created: Thu, 09 Feb 2012 04:00:23 GMT+0700 Burma's upcoming by-elections will be crucial for the credibility of reforms that remain "fragile," the EU's foreign aid chief said ahead of a trip to offer almost $US200 to the country. While calling for free and fair polls that "bring more unity," Andris Piebalgs, the European Union development commissioner, said the EU would not be sending observers to the April 1 by-elections. "There is a lot of opening and a very promising dynamic in Myanmar [Burma], even if it is still fragile," Mr Piebalgs said in an interview before traveling to Myanmar Saturday to become the first EU official to meet President Thein Sein since reforms began there in March. "We'll pass the message that we have noticed it and appreciate what is being done, and what still has to be done," he said, adding that more political prisoners could be released. "The elections will be crucial for the credibility of the change," the commissioner added. After nearly half a century of outright military rule in the country formerly known as Burma, the regime has surprised observers with a series of reforms culminating recently with democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi standing for a seat in parliament. Thein Sein's nominally civilian government, which came to power in Myanmar last year following controversial 2010 elections, has made a number of positive moves including releases of political prisoners. The EU agreed in January to begin easing sanctions on Myanmar to encourage reform, lifting travel bans against the nation's leaders and pledging further action pending continued change. The 27-nation bloc will progressively re-examine its sanctions, which include an arms embargo, a ban on gems and an assets freeze on nearly 500 people and 900 entities. "We haven't fully re-evaluated yet our relations with Myanmar," Mr Piebalgs told AFP. "We have removed part of the restrictive measures, but the country is still in transition, the political situation is still delicate." http://www.radioaustralianews.net.au/stories/201202/3427214.htm?desktop --------------------------- Is Burma seeking a role in U.S. war games? Kyodo: Burmese officials interested in joining Cobra Gold, among the world's largest military exercises Patrick WinnFebruary 9, 2012 00:25 U.S. marines stand guard during Exercise Cobra Gold 2009 at a Thai military base. (PORNCHAI KITTIWONGSAKUL/AFP/Getty Images) According to this blurb in Japan's Kyodo news service, officials from Burma (officially titled Myanmar) are feeling out the possibility of joining America's largest war games in Asia. The Cobra Gold exercise, held jointly with Thailand, is a weeks-long display of American military power: live fire drills, search-and-rescue ops and a full-on beach assault waged with fighter jets and amphibious vehicles. Many of America's Asian allies -- Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia -- send troops to participate. (My on-the-ground coverage of the war games in 2009 is here.) But does Burma really have a shot at getting an invite? The past months have shown taught us to expect the unexpected from Burma, which has only recently attempted to transform itself from an tyrannical pariah state into an up-and-coming quasi-democracy. Its U.S. ties are fast warming on the heels of Hillary Clinton's December visit. Sending a secretary of state to Burma -- still under sanctions for its military abuses -- which would have been unthinkable just two years ago. But welcoming Burma's army to Cobra Gold, for the moment, is a huge long shot. Hillary sitting down with Burma's new reformist president is, for most, politically palatable. U.S. troops collaborating with an army known for forced labor, shelling ethnic villages and firing on protesters is not. In the minds of most international observers, Burma's army still evokes villainy. What Burma may be angling for is a less controversial opportunity: sending military attaches to observe future war games. But American marines storming the hill with Burmese commandos? That remains unthinkable. http://www.globalpost.com/globalpost-blogs/southeast-asia/burma-myanmar-cobra-gold ------------------------------------------- Myanmar changes not like Arab Spring: State media Published on Feb 9, 2012 YANGON (AFP) - Myanmar state media contrasted the country's reforms with the Arab Spring on Thursday, saying the nominally civilian government would avoid bloodshed in its transition to democracy. The comment piece in the New Light of Myanmar also said the examples of Iraq and Afghanistan showed how 'errors of strategy' condemn people to a 'cycle of tears'. 'Despite the poetic title, (the) Arab Spring is the spring painted in blood and is supposed to end with troubles and poverty. What resulted from it are only splits between ethnic groups,' the English-language official paper said. Myanmar will avoid this thanks to its 'harmonious' changes and the 'genuine goodwill' of the former and current governments that 'helped the country walk on the road to democracy in (a) stable and peaceful manner'. http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/SEAsia/Story/STIStory_764772.html