News & Articles on Burma-Tuesday, 07 February 2012-uzl

News & Articles on Burma Tuesday, 07 February 2012 ---------------------------------------- Thousands flee north Burma for safety in China Crowds cheer Suu Kyi on Burma poll trail Suu Kyi campaign leaves Burmese leaders on edge Hamish McDonald Is Myanmar the new Asian tiger? Suu Kyi campaigns for Burma polls as US eases sanctions Four Karen armies in talks over alliance Western companies 'still wary' of Burma Burma: regime critic Aung Zaw allowed inside after two decades in exile Bitter struggle puts reform process at risk Economic dimensions in Myanmars opening ---------------------------------------- RADIO AUSTRALIA NEWS Thousands flee north Burma for safety in China Last Updated: 6 hours 3 minutes ago Thousands of Burmese refugees have flooded into makeshift tent cities in China to escape fighting between the Burmese military and the rebel Kachin Independence army. Aid groups say as many as 10,000 refugees, many of them women, children and elderly people, have fled to an area in southwestern Yunnan province. The refugee influx creates a humanitarian crisis and a complex diplomatic dilemma for stability-obsessed Beijing. http://www.radioaustralianews.net.au/stories/201202/3425418.htm --------------------------------------- SKY NEWS Crowds cheer Suu Kyi on Burma poll trail Updated: 02:16, Wednesday February 8, 2012 Aung San Suu Kyi has been met by thousands of cheering supporters in Burma's Irrawaddy delta on her second campaign trip ahead of by-elections that could sweep her into parliament. Huge crowds clogged the streets of Pathein on Tuesday to see the democracy icon, whose decision to contest the April 1 vote is seen as a key sign of reform in a country that emerged from nearly half a century of direct army rule last year. Local people waved pictures of the Nobel laureate and held out flowers, while saffron-robed monks waved the flag of her National League for Democracy (NLD) party. "We all need to work for free and fair elections," Suu Kyi told supporters packed into the town's sports stadium. "I saw many young people on my way here - they are the force, the future of the country." Suu Kyi's latest foray outside of Rangoon comes after a planned two-day visit to the central city of Mandalay on Saturday was postponed because the venue offered by the authorities was too small. In her first campaign trip to the southern city of Dawei in late January, streets were flooded with tens of thousands of local people. Suu Kyi's participation in the April vote is likely to lend legitimacy to Burma's parliament, which is dominated by former generals. The April polls, held to fill places vacated by those elected in 2010 who have since become ministers and deputy ministers in the government, will mark the first time Suu Kyi has been able to directly participate in a Burma vote. The NLD is running for all 48 seats up for grabs in the polls and Suu Kyi is standing in a rural constituency near Yangon, but the seats available are not enough to threaten a majority held by the army-backed ruling party. A new regime has surprised observers with reforms including welcoming the NLD back into the political mainstream, signing ceasefire deals with ethnic minority rebels and releasing hundreds of political prisoners. The nominally civilian government came to power following November 2010 elections that were marred by widespread complaints of cheating and the absence of Suu Kyi, who was under house arrest at the time. The United States on Monday lifted one of its many sanctions against Burma in recognition of recent positive moves and other Western nations have also tentatively begun easing punitive measures. But controversy surrounding the 2010 vote means the upcoming by-elections will be heavily scrutinised. http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=716015&vId= -------------------------------------- The Sydney Morning Heral Suu Kyi campaign leaves Burmese leaders on edge Hamish McDonald February 8, 2012 RANGOON: Burma's opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, has resumed the campaign trail for a slew of parliamentary byelections, with her popularity causing evident nervousness in the new government dominated by former army generals. Before her mass meeting in Pathein, a port city in the Irrawaddy delta, local authorities suddenly announced an unusual ''pre-entrance test'' exam for local students seeking to enrol in universities, ensuring that large numbers of students would be otherwise engaged while she was in town. Last weekend, Ms Suu Kyi called off a planned rally in the second-biggest city, Mandalay, after authorities refused to let her National League for Democracy use a large football stadium, instead offering a smaller field. Advertisement: Story continues below Her party is running candidates for all the 40 seats vacated in the 440-seat lower house of parliament in the capital Naypyidaw by members elevated to ministerial and other executive positions. The seats are scattered across the country, mostly in the central plains dominated by the ethnic Burman majority and the result will be a pointer to elections due in 2015. The military has 25 per cent of the seats, voted ''according to discipline'', and the constitution can be amended only by a 75 per cent vote, but the prospect of a sweep by Ms Suu Kyi and the NLD, and formation of a government, is a nightmare for the military's old guard. Yet Ms Suu Kyi's decision to enter the race - after previously boycotting the November 2010 elections and swearing not to accept the 2008 constitution engineered by the former military regime - is also seen as a reflection of consideration by the NLD that the new President, former general Thein Sein, might be building a popular political persona himself. As well as meeting Ms Suu Kyi and drawing her into the political system, the President has begun releasing political prisoners, suspended a much-criticised Chinese dam on the upper Irrawaddy and signalled intentions to open Burma's moribund economy. ''Daw Suu [or ''Aunty Suu'' as Ms Suu Kyi is often called here] is the conscience of our nation and icon of freedom, but to be honest the action on reform has to be attributed to this government,'' a prominent local business figure said. ''The credit should fairly go to our current leadership.'' A former senior army staff officer who is now a political adviser to Thein Sein, Ko Ko Hlaing, said critics had previously dismissed the new government as ''old wine in a new bottle'' but were now realising the political climate was completely different to that under the former regime of Senior General Than Shwe, now formally retired. ''In this byelection the environment has changed because relations between the newly elected President and Daw Suu are very different from the previous relations between Senior General Than Shwe and Daw Suu,'' Ko Ko Hlaing said. ''We have to remember there is a new government and a new atmosphere. So the political culture and the mood among political forces are not so similar to the previous time.'' Previously a prime minister appointed by the State Peace and Development Council, the military's ruling body, Thein Sein emerged as a conciliatory figure, meeting a stream of foreign leaders as his prisoner releases and registration of the NLD as eligible to contest the byelections earned recognition. ''As a military man everyone has to obey the order of his superior,'' Ko Ko Hlaing said. ''That's why under Senior General Than Shwe he acted like a good staff When he takes the responsibility of state power and he is the most senior person in the country he has to make decisions by himself. So he can do everything that he thinks is correct. ''The situation of the country is not the same We have to play according to the rules of the new game. According to the new constitution, as a democratic government, so there will be very significant differences between the activities of the present government and the previous government.'' The Herald's Asia-Pacific editor, Hamish McDonald, is in Burma as a guest of Melbourne University's Asialink for a dialogue with Burmese and other south-east Asian officials, businessmen, and opinion leaders. Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/suu-kyi-campaign-leaves-burmese-leaders-on-edge-20120207-1r5fb.html#ixzz1liM4pesk -------------------------------------- Is Myanmar the new Asian tiger? Despite some reforms, Myanmar remains a hardcore military dictatorship and lacks a civil society. Last Modified: 07 Feb 2012 09:57 Bangkok, Thailand - While the big story of 2012 in south-west Asia is the increasingly lethal US-Iran psychodrama, there's no bigger story in south-east Asia in the Year of the Dragon than the controlled opening of Myanmar. Everyone and his neighbour, East and West, has been trekking to Myanmar since US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit last November. It's virtually impossible these days to book a flight or a hotel room. Like Ashgabat in Turkmenistan and Astana in Kazakhstan a few years ago, the new capital Naypyidaw ("the abode of kings") - built from scratch with natural gas wealth halfway between Rangoon and Mandalay - is surging as a new promised land. In parallel, the European Union (EU) has lifted a travel ban on senior Myanmar officials. The Myanmar delegation was virtually mobbed at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos. Imagine rows of European CEOs salivating to the tune of Rail Transport Deputy Minister U Lwin saying: "Like Norway and Sweden, we have access to two seas and have fishing potential." Talk about a lot of fish to fry; the global mandarins of turbo-capitalism in crisis are falling over themselves with all that gold, gas, oil, teak, jade, uranium, coal, zinc, copper, precious gems, loads of hydropower and - crucially - cheap labour, all there for the taking. This may not be exactly a letter of recommendation - considering the ignominious past record - but still the IMF, after a two-week trip, declared Myanmar as the "next economic frontier in Asia". And this even before the US and the EU lift all their sanctions, arguably within the next few months, supposing the April 1 by-elections - where the star of the show will be The Lady, the iconic Aung San Suu Kyi - and her National League for Democracy (NLD) party - are really free and fair. In the long run, Myanmar will also need to be compatible with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Economic Community playbook, to go into full effect by 2015. Myanmar takes over the chairmanship of ASEAN in 2014. Yet for all the hoopla around President Thein Sein's "economic reforms" and the usual suspect companion rhetoric of "untapped markets" and "wide interest from foreign investors", this is still an ultra-hardcore military dictatorship. Thein Sein, a former prime minister, is an ex-general and member of the junta. He became president less than a year ago, after sham elections in November 2010 from which Suu Kyi was excluded. It's always crucial to remember that the 1990 general election was overwhelmingly won by the NLD. The junta ignored it - and kept Suu Kyi under house arrest for no less than 14 of the past 20 years. There's no guarantee against the junta deciding to re-arrest Suu Kyi all over again - when no one is watching. The amazing race What's certain is that the (remixed) road to Mandalay will be long. Myanmar badly needs foreign capital. It starts with a new investment law - spun by Myanmar officials as "the most attractive in the region", and including an eight-year tax exemption if projects are profitable for the country. The law may be approved by the end of this month. Then there's the herculean task of completely overhauling a supremely corrupt and incompetent legal system, and at least trying to contain corruption in all areas of activity. According to Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, Myanmar is only less corrupt than North Korea and Somalia. The infrastructure is in tatters - from erratic electricity to crumbling roads, railways and ports. Myanmar will go nowhere without massive investment in the transportation/energy infrastructure. In this race against time, Asia is ahead of the West. Thein Sein is just back from Singapore - the ultimate economic success story in East Asia. The Lion City will advise Myanmar not only in legal, banking and financial reform but also on trade, tourism and urban planning. Japan, for its part, wants a bilateral investment treaty as soon as possible. And Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra also met with Suu Kyi in December. Thais pride themselves of being one of Myanmar's top trading partners already, and want to market themselves as investment leaders and the key hub for regional trade involving Myanmar. And then there are the two hippos in the golden pond - China and India. Enter Pipelineistan Myanmar is usually regarded in the West as the strategic crossroads between BRICS members India and China, and between them and the rest of south-east Asia. For the paranoid/conspiratorial set, it's above all a land bridge for China to dominate the Indian Ocean. As far as the Pentagon is concerned, Myanmar is absolutely essential in the strategy, recently announced by President Obama, of "pivoting" from the Middle East to East Asia. For their part, Myanmar's wily leaders are now starting to play up Singapore elder statesman's Lee Kuan Yew's maxim that the US "must be a counterbalance" to China in south-east Asia. It's unlikely that Myanmar will be turned into a Chinese province. The Pipelineistan scenario is fascinating. A port is already under construction in Kyaukpyu - in Arakan state, on the west coast of Myanmar, close to Bangladesh. This is the home of the immense Shwe gas fields. The port will connect via a dual oil and gas pipeline to Yunnan, the huge southwest China province. For China this Pipelineistan node could not be more strategic, because it bypasses a crucially problematic choke point for Beijing; the Strait of Malacca. And the best route to the heart of China from the Indian Ocean is via Myanmar - and not via Pakistan or Bangladesh. But as Zha Daojiong, a professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University has observed, there is no conspiracy involved. Actually Myanmar's first choice for the delivery of oil and gas was India. Only after India dragged its feet, "and the international consortium of gas field developers (that did not include Chinese) was running out of patience, did Myanmar turn to China as an outlet for sales". There's no way Myanmar won't be central to China's vast, complex energy strategy. The gas to Yunnan will certainly come from Myanmar. But the oil will have to come from the Middle East (mostly Saudi Arabia and Iran, top Chinese providers) and Africa (Angola and Sudan). For all these networks to function smoothly, China needs a stable, relatively prosperous Myanmar. Then there's the even bigger Dawei port, in the southern coast. This one is geared towards Thailand, the rest of Southeast Asia and southern China. For Beijing, this is also a key alternative to the Strait of Malacca; it will boast a Chinese-style Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and an industrial park, developed by an Italian-Thai partnership. Another SEZ established near Rangoon will also benefit China plus Japan, Korea and Thailand. The Lady and the tramps The military junta, which used to be known by the Orwellian acronym SLORC (State Law and Order Restoration Council) renamed the country Myanmar in 1989. Myanmar is the Bamar term for the country's central valley. Needless to say, the country's ethnic hill tribes - Karen, Shan, Kachin and others - could never agree with it, and fought it relentlessly. In practice, the now "reformed" junta has treated the absolutely majority of its citizens - even the Bamars - in an absolutely ghastly way. For all the official talk of an ongoing "peace process", the concept of civil society in Myanmar is still virtually non-existent. So it all depends now on the election on April 1, and how Suu Kyi and her party will be able to rally not only Myanma but also the hill tribes towards sharing a real social contract. That's the hope shared by all who have been deeply moved by the terrible beauty (Yeats comes to mind) of the country and the graciousness of its people (including this writer; and in this respect, my friend Peter Popham's book, The Lady and the Peacock: The Life of Aung San Suu Kyi, is highly recommended.) Yet Myanmar is immensely more complex than a simple beauty (The Lady) and the beast (the junta) script. It will take the political activism of millions to end what's been a de facto civil war raging for the past six decades; most of all a war of the Myanmar military against the overwhelming majority of their own people. Pepe Escobar is the roving correspondent for Asia Times. His latest book is named Obama Does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009). http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/02/201223141639797384.html ------------------------------------ BBC News: 7 February 2012 Last updated at 07:23 GMT Suu Kyi campaigns for Burma polls as US eases sanctions Aung San Suu Kyi in Pathein on 7 February 2012 Ms Suu Kyi said she would focus on the rule of law and development Burmese pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is travelling outside her home town for the first time as a registered candidate for elections. Ms Suu Kyi is visiting the Irrawaddy Delta, an area she last visited two decades ago. On Monday, her candidacy for 1 April by-elections was formally accepted. Meanwhile, the US has eased one of the sanctions it levels against Burma, in what it said was a response to ongoing reforms. The partial waiver, signed on Monday, will allow Burma to receive limited technical assistance from international financial institutions. April polls On Tuesday, crowds of cheering supporters greeted Ms Suu Kyi as she campaigned in the region devastated by Cyclone Nargis in 2008. In a speech punctuated by jokes, Ms Suu Kyi told a huge crowd gathered on a football pitch in the main town that she was confident Burma would move forward. Her party's election campaign, she said, would be focused on the rule of law, development and national reconciliation. The Nobel Peace laureate, who spent years under house arrest, is standing for parliament in the rural township of Kawhmu, southwest of Rangoon. Supporters of Aung San Suu Kyi Crowds of supporters greeted Aung San Suu Kyi as she started her parliamentary campaign According to UN Human Rights Rapporteur Tomas Ojea Quintana, the polls will be a key test of the military-backed government's commitment to reform. Mr Quintana was in Burma for a six-day mission last week. Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) boycotted the elections in November 2010 that saw a military junta replaced with a nominally civilian government backed by the armed forces. Since then, the new administration has embarked down a road of reform, leading the NLD to rejoin the political process. Western nations have said that they will match progress on reform with movement on sanctions. According to the US State Department, US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton on Monday signed a partial waiver of restrictions under the Trafficking Victims Protection Act "in response to encouraging reforms under way" in Burma. This would allow institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to conduct assessment missions in the country. Other US sanctions against Burma, however, remain in place. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16921340 --------------------------------------- Four Karen armies in talks over alliance By NANG MYA NADI Published: 7 February 2012 Officials from four ethnic armies in Karen state held talks last week over the possibility of developing an alliance, following ceasefire talks between the government and one of Burma's most prominent armed opposition groups, the Karen National Union (KNU). The discussions brought together groups whose past relations exemplify the dynamic history of the war-torn eastern state, where six decades of conflict have caused changing allegiances: the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), the Karen Peace Force (KPF) and the KNU/KNLA Peace Council all formed after a split in the KNU in the mid-1990s, and allied themselves to the former junta. Now however they are in talks to rekindle an alliance, prompted largely by a decision by the KNU to meet with government officials in early January to negotiate a truce. The KPF and the Peace Council had maintained ceasefires with the government, while the DKBA's was broken in November 2010 after it refused to become a government-aligned Border Guard Force. In December last year however that was rekindled. "We, all armed Karen associations, need to unite together in the future," said Saw Lont Lon, foreign affairs coordinator of the DKBA. "We discussed how to unite ourselves, to solve political problems and to build an understanding among the armed groups, all of whom are looking to future ... development and peace in the region." The issue of designating economic zones in Karen state featured in the talks, Saw Lont Lon added. While the finer details of the ceasefire offers have not been revealed, it is likely the KNU, and indeed the DKBA last year, were offered business concessions along the border with Thailand, where trade in timber can be lucrative. Saw Lont Lon said however that it was only an informal meeting, but that more official negotiations would take place soon. The hope is to launch a state-wide Karen conference that would include religious, political and social organisations, as well as the armed groups. Government efforts to negotiate with rebel groups have been largely successful, although fighting continues in Kachin state and several clashes have occurred in Karen state since the ministers met with the KNU on 12 January. The KNU's General Secretary, Zipporah Sein, told the New York Times however that no official agreement had been signed. In Karenni state, north of Karen state, rebels from the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) say they have also agreed among themselves to hold ceasefire talks with Naypyidaw, although details of future meetings with the government's so-called 'peace delegation' are vague. Additional reporting by Ko Htwe http://www.dvb.no/news/four-karen-armies-in-talks-over-alliance/20110 -------------------------------------- Western companies 'still wary' of Burma By NAY THWIN Published: 7 February 2012 Labourers work on a building in Rangoon, which has seen a flurry of development as the country attempts to open up to western investment (Reuters) Japanese and Korean companies are leading the way in terms of recent interest in Burma but western investors continue to tread with caution, awaiting signs of concrete reforms in the business environment before launching ventures, according to a leading business figure in Burma. Myo Thet has been meeting with companies "every day for a year", he tells DVB. The secretary of Burma's largest business federation, the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (UMFCCI), is well placed to assess the current developments and says that "there is still rather low interest from the west". "There have been some bank owners from the west and also Australia but it's still low compared to Asian countries. We wish to see more [investment] not only from the east but also the west ... because the west, in terms of technology and finance, is stronger." Sanctions have been largely to blame for lack of interest from European countries, as well as Australia, Canada and the US, but that could be about to change: the EU has already dropped a longstanding visa ban on President Thein Sein and other ministers, while the US yesterday relaxed restrictions on the World Bank and IMF entering Burma. But according to industry minister U Soe Thein, who was at the World Economic Forum in Davos last month, companies are "rushing" to Burma, and claimed his maiden appearance at the Forum was proof of the country's growing status as a strategically key market for the west. Economic reforms underway are aimed at making the business environment more attractive to western investors, many of whom fear the effects of widespread corruption and conflict in the resource-rich border regions. Investment figures suggest Asian companies are less nervous about those two factors, with China leading the way in FDI, followed by Thailand and Singapore. Japan is also fronting around a quarter of the capital for the massive Tavoy industrial project in southern Burma, which will eventually cost some $US50 billion. While much of this is concentrated in the energy sector, with Burma hosting significant gas and hydropower resources, Myo Thet thinks outside interest in the agriculture and service sectors will grow. "Malaysia is keen to invest in rubber plantations and other forestry and agricultural projects, which can bring outstanding business development," he said. Later this month around 120 delegates from Singapore will arrive, and Myo Thet they will bring with them a proposal for greater Singaporean investment in the tourism and electricity sectors. He suggested that Burma was trying to lessen its dependence on China, which has become "the sole monopolist" over the country's economy, by seeking a greater variety of countries keen to invest in Burma. In a bid to attract more business interest, the government announced last month that it would offer eight-year tax exemptions to companies newly investing there. The government has also claimed it is revising restrictive investment laws enforced by the former junta. http://www.dvb.no/news/western-companies-still-wary-of-burma/20104 --------------------------------------- Burma: regime critic Aung Zaw allowed inside after two decades in exile Regime allows one of its most high-profile detractors to visit Patrick WinnFebruary 7, 2012 02:47 Aung Zaw, a Burmese exile who founded and continues to operate The Irrawaddy. The news outlet is known for its strong critiques of Burma's army-managed regime. (Screengrab) Journalist-in-exile Aung Zaw, one of the most prominent critics of Burma's government abuses, has been allowed to visit his homeland after two decades living abroad. This is surprising even to those growing numb to the flurry of recent changes in Burma, officially titled Myanmar. Aung Zaw runs The Irrawaddy, an online magazine known for detailing the misdeeds of Burma's goverment. He's also published in the Asian Wall Street Journal and the Bangkok Post in Thailand, where his operation is based. (Sample Aung Zaw headline: "Junta's dream is the world's nightmare.") Until recently, information from inside the authoritarian state has been a precious commodity. Burmese who gather news in their own country have traditionally done so at the risk of detainment or worse. "I have always wanted to return to Burma as a journalist," he said, according to The Irrawaddy. "I expect to be very busy meeting with fellow journalists and possibly with government officials." Aung Zaw has been granted a five-day journalist visa. Now that the government has allowed one of its best-known detractors to visit, is there any journalist that's still forbidden from entering Burma? http://www.globalpost.com//globalpost-blogs/southeast-asia/aung_zaw_irrawaddy ------------------------------------- Bangkok Post Bitter struggle puts reform process at risk Published: 7/02/2012 at 12:00 AM Newspaper section: News Myanmar's reform process is in the balance as the hardliners and liberals in government are locked in a bitter power struggle. Change in Myanmar remains fragile, despite encouraging signs and growing goodwill towards President Thein Sein internationally. So far there have been a lot of good intentions, but this has only produced limited practical change, according to analysts. The reason is that the liberal-minded ministers who support Thein Sein and the reform agenda are being cramped by the persistent pressure from the hardliners, led by the Vice President Tin Aung Myint Oo, who are intent on derailing the reform process. The case of the release of political prisoners highlights the bitter battle being waged behind the scenes. Government ministers, advisers and even the president himself had promised the international community that the political prisoners would be freed as soon as possible. The speaker of the lower house, Shwe Mann, hinted to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on her visit to Myanmar last December that they should all be free before the end of the year. Now many have been freed, including the high-profile activists from the 88 Generation students' group, Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi; the Shan political leader Khun Htun Oo; the Buddhist monk Gambira, and the former prime minister and intelligence chief, Khin Nyunt. But many still remain in prison as the power struggle at the top of the regime intensifies in the lead-up to the forthcoming by-elections in April. Before their release on Jan 13, there had been hints that most of the political prisoners would be freed on Jan 4 (Independence Day) and Feb 12 (Union Day). But when only a handful of political prisoners were let out and the sentences of other prisoners reduced, there was widespread dismay amongst the liberal circles in Myanmar. President Thein Sein appeared to have been cowed again by the hardliners. Aung Min, the railways minister who has been leading the peace process and ceasefire talks with many of the rebel ethnic groups, was visibly depressed by the fresh holdup, according to one of his close personnel friends. Speaker Shwe Mann virtually made a public apology. The fate of the political prisoners is a microcosm of the broader power struggle that continues to dog the reform process. Although the president is the one who finally decides who will be released and when, he is constantly walking a tight-rope, trying to build a consensus around his "gentleman's agenda" and not provoke the hardliners in his cabinet. A precarious game in Nay Pyi Daw: Reform-minded President Thein Sein, far left, is being obstructed every step of the way by hardliners led by Vice President Tin Aung Myint Oo. Now news of what happened has emerged. At the Dec 30 meeting of the powerful National Defence and Security Council _ the 11-member body chaired by Thein Sein and military C-in-C Gen Min Aung Hlaing, which discusses security and other major issues of national concern _ the topic of the political prisoners was heatedly debated. The country's leading hardliner, Tin Aung Myint Oo, strongly disagreed with releasing political prisoners before the April 1 by-elections, saying they could disrupt the poll. Apparently the former second most powerful general, Maung Aye, has been constantly campaigning behind the scenes to prevent the political activists, including Khin Nyunt and his military intelligence officers, from being freed. Shwe Mann _ the third top military man in the old regime _ has been at the forefront of trying to get the political prisoners released as soon as possible. At the meeting, he argued that if the government did not keep its promise to free them, then Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) might decide not to contest the by-elections. Interior Minister Ko Ko, another former general, supported the immediate release of the prisoners. Some of the others suggested it was important not to release political prisoners, especially Min Ko Naing and the other 88 Generation leaders, until at least after all the candidates for the by-elections had officially registered. The hardliners' greatest fear is that the 88 group would form a party and run in the elections. So, in the face of this strident opposition, the president dithered. In the end only a handful of activists were released for Independence Day; though two weeks later a significant batch of high-profile detainees including the hardliners' bete noire, the 88 student leaders and Khin Nyunt, were freed. The president's apparent volte-face was brought about by the reformers' successful peace talks with the ethnic minorities, especially the Karen National Union (KNU). This emboldened Thein Sein and gave him room to manoeuvre. On Jan 12, immediately after the KNU signed the truce with the Myanmar government delegation led by Railways Minister Aung Min, the latter rang Thein Sein, according to sources at the meeting. This was what the president was waiting for; four hours later he announced the major prisoner release and signed off on freeing most of the high-profile prisoners. That's how fragile the situation is, stressed sources in the Myanmar government. The hardliners have been dogging the president and the liberals all along the way, making it as hard as possible for the reform process to proceed unhindered. They have been pushing for the prisoner release to be delayed until after the by-elections _ or at least to keep the 88 Generation student leaders and Khin Nyunt detained until after the registration of candidates. They were in fact freed shortly before that. The favourite method of the hardliners is to mention the former military supremo Than Shwe, who is officially retired and now lives in a mansion not far from the president's palace. The hardliners, especially Aung Thaung, the former industry minister and now a leading member of the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), constantly claim that the "old man" would be upset by a massive prisoner release, thereby hoping to dissuade the president from speeding up the process. These old reactionaries from the former regime, who were close the old man before and still see him occasionally, are at the forefront of the battle to limit reform. Everything is being tossed into the arena in this silent, dirty war. The hardliners are using every hiccup and problem to hound the liberals. The failure of the peace talks with the Kachin is strengthening the hardliners' hand. Now they are waiting for social unrest and possible political demonstrations to use against Thein Sein and his liberal supporters as a pretext to attack the government's recent release of political prisoners _ behind the scenes, of course. For the moment there is something of an impasse, at least until the by-elections on April Fools' Day. The result of these elections may then determine the pace and extent of reform in the future. Some 20% of ministers are liberal and 20% are hardline, with 60% sitting on the fence waiting to see who wins, the railways minister told foreign diplomats recently. It is a precarious game the liberals are playing, according to officials close to them. "If we lose we'll end up in jail." one of them confided. Larry Jagan is a former BBC regional correspondent based in Bangkok who extensively covers Myanmar issues. http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/278587/bitter-struggle-puts-reform-process-at-risk -------------------------------------- Economic dimensions in Myanmars opening Simon Tay, Singapore | Tue, 02/07/2012 10:40 AM Just as Myanmars long-detained icon, Aung San Suu Kyi, began campaigning for a parliamentary seat, the countrys President Thein Sein made a state visit to Singapore. Accompanied by a high-level delegation, the presidents visit concluded with an agreement for technical assistance and training in a number of key areas including finance, investment law and trade facilitation. These two events over the same week demonstrate the ambitious pace of change and growing confidence in Myanmar. Reaching out to Singapore also brings into the spotlight an economic dimension to the ongoing political reform. Businesses from many countries have been eager to explore investments in Myanmar. Considered the last, large and untapped market in Asia, many sectors of the economy have been underdeveloped or else dominated by Chinese firms. ASEAN the regional group to which Myanmar belongs wants to be supportive and so does Singapore. This goes beyond the politics of having Myanmar assume the groups chairmanship in 2014. ASEANs plan for a more integrated economic community in 2015 can also gain. Much however depends on whether sanctions put in place by the West for more than two decades are lifted. The European Union has already begun to unwind its sanctions. In Washington DC, a complex legal process is gaining bipartisan support. There is cause for optimism, but is Myanmar ready for business and investment? Can the country follow up its current political reform with parallel reforms to the economy and boost the countrys development? A recent publication by the International Monetary Fund predicts the economy will grow at a rate of some 5.5 percent for 2012. Such projections in line with neighboring Indo-Chinese economies are significant given the weak global outlook. But there is potential for greater, sustained growth. Consider the countrys ample natural resources of oil and gas, as well as forestry products and minerals. Factor in a strategic location that can link China, India and Southeast Asia. Add also that Myanmar has sizeable population of some 54 million, many of whom are of working age, and eager for jobs. The economy, among the regions poorest at present, has the potential to grow. There are of course concerns, many of which are typical of frontier economies like the need for infrastructure and concerns about corruption and power shifts during this political change. But Myanmar also faces special challenges. One key issue are exchange controls and currency stability. Officially, US$1 is exchanged for just 6 Myanmar kyats. But in the widespread black market, the rate currently hovers around 750 kyats and has been as high in recent years as 1250 kyats. Only with astute financial management can the country hope to liberalize its currency while maintaining macroeconomic stability. Another issue important for businesses coming in is that investment protection laws need improvement, with stable policies to be put in place. Recall that in the mid 1990s, some companies invested in the country, anticipating its membership in ASEAN. Many investors of that period were however left stranded by circumstances and policy changes. Another issue to watch will be the central governments effort to settle decades of fighting with different ethnic groups. The recent cease-fire deal with the Karen is a prime example. The Karen have been active in the Dawei industrial zone in the south of the country and this is now undergoing a major overhaul worth $50 billion as a cornerstone of the governments revitalization plan. As economic opening moves ahead, it will be essential that gains go beyond the circle of those in power. If development is to be sustained in tandem with political reform, the government must give attention to educating and training its people, and meeting their basic needs, such as housing. This sets the context for the agreement between the governments of Myanmar and Singapore. Tapping on Singapores expertise in finance, law and providing public services can help Myanmar kick-start economic development. The agreement was in many ways to be expected, given that the countries have long-standing ties in trade, as well as training programs for public officials. The spotlight has understandably been on Myanmars dramatic political opening. Economic reform is now emerging as a twinned issue and the agreement with Singapore is but an early step on this path. Advocates for human rights and democracy will continue to watch developments in Myanmar but expect that businesses too will increasingly be part of the equation for change. The writer is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2012/02/07/economic-dimensions-myanmar-s-opening.html