THE NATION - The US lays down new rules of engagement on Burma

By KAVI CHONGKITTAVORN
Published on August 19, 2009

KUDOS must go to Senator Jim Webb, the chairman of the US Senate Subcommittee on Foreign Affairs for East and Southeast Asia, who secured the release of John Yettaw over the weekend on humanitarian grounds.

He also met with the Burmese opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, which was rather unusual at this juncture. But he failed to convince the Burmese junta leader General Than Shwe to give in to his third request - lifting her house arrest. As things stand, for the next eighteen months this issue will be the main focus of tense negotiations between the US and Burma, with far-reaching implications for Asean and regional players.

It was interesting to note that Than Shwe was silent on the issue of Suu Kyi's terms of house arrest. For Webb, it was a good sign, as he personally did not treat it as a rejection of any kind. As such, he still views the junta's attitude with optimism.

As a Vietnam War hero coupled with his experience in dealing with the aftermath of the Vietnam War including sanctions, Webb is extremely confident that he can accomplish results in Burma - that is, increasing engagement, ending sanctions and bringing investment to the country. He hopes that such moves will reduce China's influence there, as well as in the region.


On that score, the Burmese have maximised Webb's visit, knowing full well his Vietnam history, senatorial power and close connections to both US President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. By backing Webb's initiative, Burma's junta has managed to kill quite a few birds with one stone. Firstly, it has somewhat altered its image of a pariah state into one of a goodwill state with a merciful leader. Secondly, the trip has helped the international community to refocus on ways to secure Suu Kyi's freedom. Certainly, nobody, except the junta leaders, knows what her fate will be in the coming days and weeks. Thirdly, the junta now has ample time until October to ponder its next move, especially in response to moves that come from Asean. Finally, it shows Burma's diplomatic finesse in broadening its international outlook by engaging with the US directly - which no one would have thought possible just a few days ago. North Korea has been trying to do this for decades but has not been very successful.

Apart from Suu Kyi's current house arrest, the junta knows that the international community will only accept an inclusive election, scheduled for next year, with the participation of Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy.

During the meeting between Webb, Suu Kyi and members of the NLD, conditions under which they would participate in the election were discussed. They saw eye to eye that pushing for Suu Kyi's freedom will continue, and that ways must be found to ensure that the opposition is part of the electoral process. According to a well-informed diplomatic source, who asked not to be identified, Suu Kyi has declined to state her position on the upcoming election unless she has a party position.

At this juncture, it depends on how the US government wants to engage with Burma in the coming months, especially after its review on Burmese policy which has been delayed for months. Will Washington want to find an exit strategy for the regime it has condemned for decades?

If Webb has his way, he would like to do so. He would move forward to reduce sanctions and to provide additional incentives for the junta to respond constructively. His wartime experience taught him to take whatever one has and to work with it. Unfortunately, his maverick approach is not widely supported by the Burmese community in exile and colleagues in the US Congress.

With such a drastic development, Asean has a lot of catching up to do. Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya is seeking a consensus among the grouping to urge Burma to free Suu Kyi. But half of the Asean members (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma and Brunei) do not want such a statement. They consider it an infringement of national sovereignty.

In the coming days, the core Asean members have to decide if they want to hold a special ministerial meeting on Burma, as suggested by Malaysia. It is a Catch 22 situation for Asean. Holding such a ministerial meeting - known as a minus-x formula - would be unprecedented since the Cambodian conflict (1978-1992). It would also reveal the huge rift within Asean on the issue of Burma. After the Phuket meeting, Asean members agreed that Kasit should fly to Burma for further talks. However, like previous Asean efforts, without a strong and sustained Asean position, the junta leaders will just turn a blind eye, as they have always done.

With the US diplomatic offensive on Burma, China's role in and interest inside Burma will be exposed further. Webb has been bothered by China's ever-growing influence there. He has argued constantly that China's gain in Burma is at the expense of US strategic interests in the region. As a global power, he thinks Beijing should be doing more to push for national reconciliation and stability inside Burma.

With this new diplomatic pressure, China also needs to rethink its own Burmese strategy by collaborating more with Asean - something that Beijing has been avoiding.

The conventional wisdom has been that Asean has never attained a consensus view on Burma that China could back diplomatically. Now, with a new twist, the time has come for Asean and China to work together on Burma - not to placate the US effort but to maintain China's regional credibility.