OPINION: Asians cannot count on "magic bullets" from U.S. for their problems

By Hiroki Sugita TOKYO, May 1, Kyodo Every time the U.S. president visits Asia, there are agreements, such as the "Global Alliance" or the "Strategic Partnership," which are well received in Asian countries but very modest in terms of concrete actions and effectiveness. In his late April visit to Asia, President Barack Obama was gracious enough to tell the people in the countries he visited exactly what they wanted to hear. Of course, Asians are happy right now, but we cannot ignore deeper doubts about whether he will follow through on what he said. In Tokyo, the first stop of President Obama's Asian trip, he said that the Senkaku Islands fall under the Japan-U.S. security treaty, in a show of U.S. commitment to defending the Japanese-administered islands against any attempt by China to seize them. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan praised Obama's statement, which no previous U.S. president has voiced, as "epoch-making." Japanese security experts say that the statement is the best way to deter China from starting any military operations against the islands in the East China Sea. Then, in Seoul, Obama rebuked Japan and pleased South Korea. At a press conference with President Park Geun Hye he described "comfort women" as a "terrible and egregious" violation of human rights and for the first time urged Mr. Abe to address the issue with the South Korean government. Many of the comfort women who were forced to work at Japanese military brothels during World War II were from the Korean Peninsula. President Park followed Obama by saying delightedly, "I really look forward to efforts made by the Japanese side." In Manila, Obama announced a defense pact that would give American forces greater access to Philippine military bases and facilities, including airfields and seaports. The main purpose of the pact is to fend off China's military expansion in the South China Sea. Asians except Chinese welcome all of Obama's words and policies. Many Japanese even support the "comfort women" statement. Although Obama's comfort women comment clearly puts Abe in an awkward position, it may act as a catalyst to end the bickering between Japan and South Korea over this issue. According to U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice, the remark was in line with the purpose of Obama's trip, namely to cement ties with Japan and South Korea and to encourage improved dialogue between these nations. However, the question is: to what extent can Obama oversee the implementation of these words and agreements? Asians were joyful when Obama announced the U.S. pivot to Asia three years ago after its long and enduring Middle East military ventures. But, we soon found in dismay the policy (later called "rebalancing") more rhetorical than real, as it lacked follow-up measures. Since the pivot announcement, Obama has cancelled two trips to Asia to deal with domestic political affairs, and last year he gave silent approval to China's Air Defense Identification Zone, over protests from Japan. One of the pillars of the pivot is the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, which was intended to create an Asia-Pacific free trade zone. During this trip to Asia, Obama made it clear that the United States would not make meaningful concessions to Japan and other TPP countries on trade negotiations for fear of angering some U.S. industries. Again, it is clear that Obama places domestic politics above Asia rebalancing. Even the Senkaku statement is not so assuring. At the Tokyo press conference, Obama avoided answering a question about the use of U.S. military force if China were to make a military incursion into the Senkakus. He explained that what he had said about the U.S. commitment to the islands was nothing new; it just repeated the U.S.'s historical interpretation of the U.S.-Japan security treaty. This response gave the impression that he would be very hesitant to use any kind of force. Given Obama's weak reaction to his declared redline regarding the use of chemical weapons in Syria and his ineffective response to the crisis in Ukraine, some Japanese naturally wonder whether the Senkaku statement is another Obama redline that would be easily ignored. Considering China's substantial economic and military strength, it is highly unlikely that the United States would get involved in a confrontation with China over a group of small and inhabited islands. Because of strict budget cuts, the U.S. military cannot meaningfully strengthen its presence. Yoko Iwama, a professor at the National Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, noted, "The Ukraine crisis shows the U.S. still has to put a great deal of efforts into Europe to counter Russia. It is too much to ask the U.S. to show strong presence both in Asia and Europe." Although security ties with the United States are the foundation for stability in the region, Asian countries would be wise not to expect much from the United States in the events of conflicts. It is equally important that Asian countries strengthen their own individual defense capabilities and build better relations with China. Obama has a unique capability to please host countries, as we saw in his April trip to Asia. In November, he will go to Beijing to attend the annual Asia-Pacific leaders' meeting. He most likely will reiterate strategic relationships with China for global and regional agendas, which the Japanese and Filipinos will not be happy to hear. In Tokyo he called on Japan to have talks to de-escalate the tension over the Senkakus saying, "I've said directly to the prime minister that it would be a profound mistake to continue to see escalation around this issue rather than dialogue and confidence building measures between Japan and China." If the issue is not resolved by November, then Obama in China may blame Abe for not doing enough. Asians should not be happy or disappointed each time the U.S. president makes a statement on the region. We can't expect magic bullets from the United States for Asian problems because they do not have quick solutions. Therefore, we Asians must find our own solutions to the Senkakus, comfort women, China, and any other issues we face. (Hiroki Sugita is managing feature writer of Kyodo News.) ==Kyodo