News & Articles on Burma-Tuesday, 22 March, 2011

News & Articles on Burma
Tuesday, 22 March, 2011
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Wa Leader Vows to Fight On
Thailand Accused of Creating Instability in Burma
Wa Leader Vows to Fight On
1,000 Burmese Fisherman in Need of Rescue
Burmese Army warned to stop movement in KIA areas
The brunt of the fighting comes to the people – as usual
Monks condemn Germany’s sanctions line
Funeral charity marks 100,000 cremations
Thailand could help curb Karen insurgents: Myanmar
Can Indonesia become the central leader of Asean?
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Wa Leader Vows to Fight On
By WAI MOE Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Leaders of the United Wa State Army (UWSA)—Burma's largest ethnic armed group—said on Sunday that they will not give up “an inch” of their land and called on Wa people to fight against their common enemies. The statement comes amid strained tensions between the Burmese junta and minority groups near the Sino-Burmese border.

“We will not give up any bullet or any weapon which is protecting as many as 500,000 multi-ethnic people’s lives and properties in Wa territory. Holding arms is quite necessary for our security and development of our land,” said UWSA leader Bao Youxiang, according to sources in group headquarters Panghsang.

His address came on Sunday before more than 200 attendees at the closure of the five-day year-end conference in the Wa town near the Sino-Burmese border.

“The Wa regions have been being built for more than 20 years [since the 1989 ceasefire and split from communists] by Wa people through their good will and hard work. Therefore we will not give up an inch of our people’s land freely and easily,” he added.

At the meeting, Bao Youxiang repeatedly mentioned the togetherness of the Wa region saying “successful development projects” were due to the unity of people living in the area. He added that “unity could vanquish any enemy and any threat.”

Bao Youxiang—who is believed to be in his 60s—did not appear throughout the first four days of the event, but gave a rousing speech at the end of the conference. UWSA’s other senior members— including Zhao Zhongdang, who is expected to succeed Bao Youxiang—led the meeting. Discussions centered on handling fresh military threats on the UWSA from government troops, and alliances with other ethnic groups in the region.

However, despite Bao Youxiang’s defiant speech, the UWSA seems to be edging towards negotiations with the junta over the Border Guard Force (BGF).

After the Wa meeting, officials of the Military Affairs Security (MAS) reportedly came to Panghsang on Monday to pick up their Chinese counterparts for a regular border committee. While MAS officials were in the Wa headquarters, the UWSA leadership handed over a letter for Naypyidaw.

Although Wa officials declined to talk about details of the letter, observers said it was from Bao Youxiang to ex-Gen Thein Sein who is President-in-waiting for the new government in Naypyidaw.

Sources close to the UWSA said Thein Sein has a close personal relationship with the Wa leader ever since the pair crossed paths when the Burmese general was posted as the commander of Triangle Regional Military Command in eastern Shan State.

Shortly after Thein Sein was named president of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar in early February, Bao Youxiang was the only person among ethnic armed groups which dispute the BGF who sent a letter of congratulations to Naypyidaw.

While key UWSA members gathered in Panghsang for the meeting, junta troops launched a series of attacks on the Shan State Army-North (SSA-North) in an attempt to seize the group’s headquarters in Wimhing, Shan State. The SSA-North also rejected the BGF plan.

Ethnic minority sources claim junta troops used large caliber shells during operations against the SSA-North. “Our intelligence reports said that the government army sent more reinforcements—including at least eight trucks and extra 120 mm-artillery weapons—to northern Shan State,” said an SSA officer who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The SSA had an alliance with the UWSA and other ethnic armed groups—such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Mongla group of the National Democratic Alliance Army—following continuous pressure from Naypyidaw over the BGF issue and the fall of the Kokang army in 2009.

But UWSA leaders reportedly told their SSA-North counterparts recently that the agreement did not extend past last year. However, with non-military aid apparently still offered to the SSA-North, it is uncertain what the exact scope of the alliance remains.

Apart from the UWSA and its former communist comrades in the Mongla armed group, the SSA-North and the KIA formed a new alliance in 2010 alongside other armed ethnic groups based along the Thai-Burmese border. These include the Karen National Union, the Karenni People Progressive Party and the New Mon State Party.

Ethnic minority sources said the UWSA and the Mongla group’s decision to abstain from the new alliance is due to China’s opposition, even though Wa and Mongla leaders support the alliance informally.

“Chinese officials do not want the UWSA and Mongla group to have a close relationship with other ethnic groups based on the Thai-Burmese border. The Chinese think these groups are pro-West,” an ethnic minority source revealed on condition of anonymity.
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=20985
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Thailand Accused of Creating Instability in Burma
By HTET AUNG Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Burma's information minister has accused Thailand of not being a friendly neighbor by promoting instability in Karen State, according to the state-run New Light of Myanmar.

“If the neighbor [Thailand] would stand as a friendly nation, [the] problems of Kayin [Karen] State would soon be solved,” said Information Minister Kyaw San at a parliamentary session in Naypyidaw.

“There are base camps which they call refugee camps in the territory of the neighbor near Myanmar [Burma] border. Those camps are founded with contribution[s] of some certain super powers, INGOs and the neighbor. Insurgents use those camps as their base and launch guerrilla attacks on the army, which is the reason that [exchanges of fire] are still occurring in Kayin State.”

The remark was reportedly made in response to a question by Saw Thein Aung, a leader of Phalon Sawaw Democratic Party, who is an elected MP in the Lower House representing Hlaingbwe constituency.

Saw Thain Aung asked the government about its plan to restore peace and stability in Karen State and the role of Karen nationals in the process. He also said that the people in Karen State want a cease-fire and peace, and are “sympathetic toward war refugees.”

Although the state media didn't mention Thailand by name, the information minister blamed the “neighbor” as a source of prolonging instability in Karen State. Thailand has given sanctuary along the border to refugees fleeing from Karen State, although the Burmese regime does not recognize the shelters as refugee camps.

The junta has previously made this accusation, but on this occasion it went a step further in attacking the international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs) based in Thailand that provide humanitarian assistance to the refugee camps along the Thai-Burmese border.

The junta's attack on the INGOs coincides with the decision of the European Union (EU) to reduce aid to the Burmese refugees in Thailand, which came soon after the EU Commissioner for International Cooperation, Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Response Kristalina Georgieva led an EU delegation to Mae La refugee camp, the biggest camp with about 50,000 refugees.

According to camp sources, the EU commissioner told the camp management body that the EU will reduce their aid in the coming years, but will provide assistance to promote livelihoods for the refugees with the goal of allowing them to stand on their own feet by getting access to paid jobs inside and outside the camps.

Thailand currently hosts about 150,000 Burmese refugees in nine refugee camps along its western border opposite Shan, Karenni and Karen states and Tenasserim Division.

Currently, there are 78,682 refugees from Karen State living in three refugee camps—Mae La, Nu Po and Umpiem Mai, located in Tak Province—according to 2011 data issued by the Thailand Burma Border Consortium, an umbrella organization comprised of INGOs that provides food, materials for building shelters, and other assistance to the refugees.

For more than a quarter of a century, Thailand has hosted and received Burmese refugees due to continuing armed conflict between various ethnic armed groups and the Burmese army.
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=20982
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Wa Leader Vows to Fight On
By WAI MOE Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Leaders of the United Wa State Army (UWSA)—Burma's largest ethnic armed group—said on Sunday that they will not give up “an inch” of their land and called on Wa people to fight against their common enemies. The statement comes amid strained tensions between the Burmese junta and minority groups near the Sino-Burmese border.

“We will not give up any bullet or any weapon which is protecting as many as 500,000 multi-ethnic people’s lives and properties in Wa territory. Holding arms is quite necessary for our security and development of our land,” said UWSA leader Bao Youxiang, according to sources in group headquarters Panghsang.

His address came on Sunday before more than 200 attendees at the closure of the five-day year-end conference in the Wa town near the Sino-Burmese border.

“The Wa regions have been being built for more than 20 years [since the 1989 ceasefire and split from communists] by Wa people through their good will and hard work. Therefore we will not give up an inch of our people’s land freely and easily,” he added.

At the meeting, Bao Youxiang repeatedly mentioned the togetherness of the Wa region saying “successful development projects” were due to the unity of people living in the area. He added that “unity could vanquish any enemy and any threat.”

Bao Youxiang—who is believed to be in his 60s—did not appear throughout the first four days of the event, but gave a rousing speech at the end of the conference. UWSA’s other senior members— including Zhao Zhongdang, who is expected to succeed Bao Youxiang—led the meeting. Discussions centered on handling fresh military threats on the UWSA from government troops, and alliances with other ethnic groups in the region.

However, despite Bao Youxiang’s defiant speech, the UWSA seems to be edging towards negotiations with the junta over the Border Guard Force (BGF).

After the Wa meeting, officials of the Military Affairs Security (MAS) reportedly came to Panghsang on Monday to pick up their Chinese counterparts for a regular border committee. While MAS officials were in the Wa headquarters, the UWSA leadership handed over a letter for Naypyidaw.

Although Wa officials declined to talk about details of the letter, observers said it was from Bao Youxiang to ex-Gen Thein Sein who is President-in-waiting for the new government in Naypyidaw.

Sources close to the UWSA said Thein Sein has a close personal relationship with the Wa leader ever since the pair crossed paths when the Burmese general was posted as the commander of Triangle Regional Military Command in eastern Shan State.

Shortly after Thein Sein was named president of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar in early February, Bao Youxiang was the only person among ethnic armed groups which dispute the BGF who sent a letter of congratulations to Naypyidaw.

While key UWSA members gathered in Panghsang for the meeting, junta troops launched a series of attacks on the Shan State Army-North (SSA-North) in an attempt to seize the group’s headquarters in Wimhing, Shan State. The SSA-North also rejected the BGF plan.

Ethnic minority sources claim junta troops used large caliber shells during operations against the SSA-North. “Our intelligence reports said that the government army sent more reinforcements—including at least eight trucks and extra 120 mm-artillery weapons—to northern Shan State,” said an SSA officer who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The SSA had an alliance with the UWSA and other ethnic armed groups—such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Mongla group of the National Democratic Alliance Army—following continuous pressure from Naypyidaw over the BGF issue and the fall of the Kokang army in 2009.

But UWSA leaders reportedly told their SSA-North counterparts recently that the agreement did not extend past last year. However, with non-military aid apparently still offered to the SSA-North, it is uncertain what the exact scope of the alliance remains.

Apart from the UWSA and its former communist comrades in the Mongla armed group, the SSA-North and the KIA formed a new alliance in 2010 alongside other armed ethnic groups based along the Thai-Burmese border. These include the Karen National Union, the Karenni People Progressive Party and the New Mon State Party.

Ethnic minority sources said the UWSA and the Mongla group’s decision to abstain from the new alliance is due to China’s opposition, even though Wa and Mongla leaders support the alliance informally.

“Chinese officials do not want the UWSA and Mongla group to have a close relationship with other ethnic groups based on the Thai-Burmese border. The Chinese think these groups are pro-West,” an ethnic minority source revealed on condition of anonymity.
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http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=20977
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1,000 Burmese Fisherman in Need of Rescue
By KO HTWE Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Nearly 1,000 fishermen whose boats were swept out to sea by a storm are in need of urgent rescue assistance, according to Tun Lwin, the retired director-general of Burma's Department of Meteorology and Hydrology.

The stranded fisherman had been among nearly 2,000 from the Cyclone Nargis hit areas of Pyapon, Dedaye, Labutta and Myaungmya townships in the Irrawaddy Division who gather at the mouth of the Pyapon River between October and April of every year in search of fish and prawns. Most of these fishermen lost their boat in Cyclone Nargis and since have used a bamboo raft for fishing.

On and around March 13, three continuous days of winds of up to 70 miles per hour sent nearly 125 fishing boats out to open sea, Tun Lwin wrote on his website. Some were stranded on Heingyi Island and some drifted to shores of Kyaikkami and Ye townships in Mon State.

Fishing vessels and the Burmese Navy rescued nearly 800 fishermen, of whom 200 are now in Tavoy Township in Tanitharyi Division and 600 are in Rangoon.

“Authorities are collecting meals for the refugees who are being housed in the Tavoy High School. The security is strict around the camp,” said a resident of Tavoy, also known as Dawei.

Authorities said they will send the rescued fisherman to their homes within four or five days.

“There are also a lot of causalities and the need to rescue more fisherman who have drifted out to sea,” said another Tavoy resident.

However, the Burmese state-run newspaper Myanmar A Lin said on Tuesday that the Burmese Navy rescued 3,374 fisherman and 3,152 of those fishermen have been sent home.

The Myanmar [Burma] Climate Change Watch website mentions the danger of the downburst on its web page but does not mention details of the meso scale phenomena. In Burma, weather forecasting is made with limitations because of the lack of equipment to measure localized phenomena, according to Tun Lwin's website.
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=20983
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Burmese Army warned to stop movement in KIA areas
Tuesday, 22 March 2011 19:29 KNG

The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) warned the Burmese Army to stop any movement in areas controlled by the KIA in Northern Shan State, after a recent offensive against the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N) was launched by Burmese troops, said local military sources close to the KIA.

The warning was released by Dai Lawn Rung, the central military command of the KIA, based in Laiza, in Kachin State. It means Burmese troops will face armed resistance if they enter the KIA areas, according to KIA officials in N. Shan State.
kia_4th_brigade

The entrance of KIA's 4th brigade based in Loikang, near Kutkai in Nothern Shan State.
Local military observers in Munggu (Mongkoe) told the Thailand-based Kachin News Group, “At the moment, Burmese troops have stopped any movement in the KIA areas. Fighting will break out if they neglect the KIA’s warning.”

The KIA’s 4th brigade, which has five battalions, is based in N. Shan State. Battalions No. 17 and No. 29 are nearest to the current military conflict between Burmese troops and the SSA-N.

The KIA is closely watching the latest fighting between the SSA-N and Burmese troops, according to the KIA officials.

Both the KIA and SSA-N are members of the recently formed United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), the political and military alliance organized by 12 ethnic groups.

The United Wa State Army (UWSA), the KIA’s ally outside the UNFC and the strongest armed ethnic group said it also will fight the Burmese Army if they enter its territories.

The SSA-N wants the stronger armed groups, like the KIA and the UWSA, to join the military response against Burmese troops, according to local military analysts.

The two groups are preparing for inevitable civil war with the Burmese junta. However, both are reluctant to respond to the junta’s military action against the SSA-N so far.

Military analysts near the China border said the current fighting between the Burmese Army and SSA-N will test the UNFC, which formed in last month.

The KIA is the second strongest armed ethnic group in military-ruled Burma. It has five brigades. Four of them are based in Kachin State. There are about 30 battalions, with over 30,000 fighters- including regular and reserved forces, said KIA.

There is no official ceasefire agreement between the KIA and Burmese regime. However, the KIA will not start the war according to KIA officials. http://www.kachinnews.com/news/1874-burmese-army-warned-to-stop-movement-in-kia-areas.html
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The brunt of the fighting comes to the people – as usual
Tuesday, 22 March 2011 13:04 S.H.A.N.

Since 22 February, travel between the Monghsu gemland and the rest of Shan State has been restricted. But since 13 March, when the Burma Army launched the offensive with at least 19 battalions on the Shan State Army (SSA) North that had turned down its “One country one military” program, the situation has turned from bad to worse in Monghsu and its neighboring townships: Kehsi. Tangyan and Mongyai.

The following are the first reports that have reached SHAN from the conflict zone:

Nampook village, Phak Narm village tract, Kehsi township

On 9 March 2011, a cow worth 500,000 kyat ($500) was taken by the Langkher-based battalion (number of unit unidentified) for food. Later on 14 March 2011, another cow worth 600,000 kyat ($600) was taken from the main village, Phak Narm. There was no compensation.

On 15 March, Capt Min Min Hlaing, commander of the unit, summoned Loong Sai, 50, headman of Wanwarp to Nampook. On his arrival, the major accused him of being late and punched his face and kicked him several times. His soldiers later visited Loong Sai and asked him to stay calm as the major was a habitually short tempered person.

Namlao, Mongkao tract, Tangyan township

On 16 March 2011, after the SSA had retreated from Namlao, more than 100 villagers, most of them women, children and the elderly people, were detained at the military camp. The occupying force was made up of Infantry Battalion 33 (Mongkao-based) and Infantry Battalion 291 (Lashio-based).

On the next day, young people in Mongkao were summoned and detained at a villager’s house in Namlao. They were accused of assisting the rebels by not giving information to the Army.

As a result, more than 500 people had fled and taken refuge in the jungle. Their left behind possessions were ransacked and looted by the soldiers. At least 50 motor vehicles were taken each for his own

Markman village, Kehsi township

On 18 March 2011, Maj Aye Aung of Light Infantry Battalion 578 (Langkher-based), 67 strong, took the following items without paying:
Liquor 50 bottles Price K 50,000 ($50)
Chicken 150 Price K 400,000 ($400)
Cooking oil 5 pails Price K 170,000 ($170)
Ajinomoto 10 bags Price K 20,000 ($20)
Rice 1 tang Price K 20,000 ($20)

On the next day, he and his men arrived at Pa Tep village and commandeered a bullock cart for use. The owner Sai Pi, 45, and another youth Sai Aung, 25, were beaten as they had no information about the rebels.

Sai Pi was punched, kicked and beaten with a piece of wood used as a fence stake, until he was drenched in blood. As for Sai Aung, he was hit on his forehead with a rifle stock.

They also took 50 liquor bottles, 20 bottles of cooking oil, 5 cooking pots, 10 Ajinomoto bags and 3 Buddha images from the village. http://www.shanland.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3518:the-brunt-of-the-fighting-comes-to-the-people-as-usual&catid=87:human-rights&Itemid=285
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Monks condemn Germany’s sanctions line
By JOSEPH ALLCHIN
Published: 21 March 2011

Two monks representing the All Burma Monks Alliance (ABMA) will present an open letter to the German foreign ministry today and lead a silent protest outside its Berlin headquarters.

Ashin Sopaka, who will present the letter alongside Ashin Kovida, told DVB that he was calling on the German people to oppose their government’s alleged lobbying of other EU nations to remove sanctions on the country. “They are more interested in business with this regime; they said this is a new government so they want to work together – this is their interest. That’s why they want to lobby and work with the junta, and they don’t want to hear criticisms from other countries.”

Activist group Burma Campaign UK corroborates that the German government as well as Italy and Spain have been lobbying other EU nations to support the removal of the EU’s weak sanctions on Burma. This allegation also appeared in a leaked Wikileak cable, where a British diplomat told his US counterpart that the Germans had “‘heard what they wanted to hear’ about the situation in Burma and therefore ‘have subsequently started discussions within the EU about relaxing the current measures’.”

Since the junta held an election in November last year there have been renewed calls for an end to sanctions. Sopaka however told DVB of the protest: “We want to tell the story that is going on behind – how they organised the election and formed the new government. We want to tell them that they changed only their clothes, their uniforms, from soldiers to normal; they didn’t change their policies. We want to tell them that there are more political prisoners now, and the monks are still in jail.

“We wish that they stay with the EU common position; that is our hope. I hope they understand and hear our voice.”

Germany has a long history of business dealings with the Burmese junta, and following the September 2007 monk-led protests German campaigners noted that slain Japanese journalist Kenji Nagai was in all probability murdered by a German-made G3 assault rifle, which has been the primary battle assault rifle of the Burmese army since the 1960s. Moreover, in a major investigation by DVB a Burmese defector alleges that the German machine parts company Deckel Maho Gildemeister (DMG) had supplied parts for Burma’s nuclear program.

Reflecting what activists allege to be an attitude of appeasement by the German government, a large EU delegation of some 30 diplomats met with Aung San Suu Kyi in Rangoon to discuss sanctions. This was also joined by a plea from parties, including the National Democratic Force (NDF), which split from the National League for Democracy (NLD) in order to take part in last year’s elections, to remove sanctions.

Sopaka will lead the silent protest today outside the foreign ministry in central Berlin from 2pm to 6pm.

The junta meanwhile responded to the NLD’s continued support of sanctions with the threat that the party, including Aung San Suu Kyi, could meet a “tragic end”.
http://www.dvb.no/news/monks-condemn-germanys-sanctions-line/14864
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Funeral charity marks 100,000 cremations
By BARANI
Published: 22 March 2011

A charity set up by a prominent Burmese film star to provide free funerals for hard-up families yesterday held its 100,000th ceremony in Rangoon.

A regular target of attacks from the Burmese junta, the Free Funeral Service Society (FFSS) was founded a decade ago to relieve families of the onerous cost of funerals, which often cost several hundred dollars in country where average annual salaries are little more than $US400.

The founder, Kyaw Thu, a two-time Myanmar Academy Award winner and once one of Burma’s leading film icons, told DVB that the group was also able to provide the family of Chit Han, who was cremated yesterday, with 350,000 kyat ($US400).

Since Kyaw Thu’s retirement from the big screen and switch to social work he has become an increasingly vocal critic of the ruling junta, and was arrested after publicly supporting the September 2007 monk-led uprising.

His relief work and raising of some $US400,000 following 2008’s cyclone Nargis also drew the ire of the generals, who eye with distaste anyone filling the void left by the decrepit public services.

The rising popularity and influence of the FFSS, which relies on private donations, among the Burmese public has worried the junta, so much so that in February 2008 it ordered several Rangoon journals not to publish information about the group’s activities, while the year before, its registration renewal was refused by the government until an appeal met with success.
http://www.dvb.no/news/funeral-charity-marks-100000-cremations/14871
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Mar 22, 2011
Thailand could help curb Karen insurgents: Myanmar

YANGON - A TOP official in Myanmar says a decades-old insurgency in the country could be curbed with the help of neighboring Thailand.

Information Minister Kyaw Hsan did not mention Thailand by name, but referred to the country neighbouring Kayin State. Karen ethnic rebels in that eastern region have been fighting for autonomy.

The government-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper reported that Kyaw Hsan made the comments Monday in response to a question in parliament.

Aside from Thailand, he was also quoted as saying 'the modest cooperation' of certain powers and non-governmental organisations would lead to an effective solution to Kayin's unrest.

Myanmar is ruled by a military junta. Human rights groups have long accused the army of abuses in insurgent areas. -- AP http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/SEAsia/Story/STIStory_647892.html
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Can Indonesia become the central leader of Asean?
By Sarinna Areethamsirikul
Bangkok
Published on March 22, 2011

Indonesia is now not only the largest economy in Southeast Asia, but also the only Asean member ranked as a free country by the Freedom House Index (FHI). No one can deny the current force of economic and political development or development of civil society organisations (CSOs) in Indonesia. This situation has revitalised the new phase of Indonesian leadership in Asean. The Philippines has risen from the political ashes under the government of President Beningo Aquino III. By contrast, Thailand has demoted its democratic paradigm since the 2006 coup.

What is so significant about Indonesia's rising star of democracy while other Asean members continue with the ideologies of socialism and authoritarian democracy?

Indonesian leadership does not stop within Asean, as it is now recognised by the international community as the regional representative at the G-20. The largest Muslim country in the world also plays a bigger role at the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) and is a vital US partner against terrorism in Southeast Asia.

Indonesia is the current Asean chair, which provides an opportunity for the country to officially demonstrate its intention and responsibility to lead Asean in 2011 and beyond. Some say one year is too short to make a change in the direction of Asean. It is partly true. But with hundreds of Asean meetings each year, Indonesia should be able to create a new regional atmosphere either through public announcements or actions. Indonesia can influence the new direction of Asean by supporting Asean's new credos - democracy and human rights under the Asean Charter - bringing these ideals a little closer to reality.

Challenges for Indonesia and Asean are climate change, regional infrastructure building (under "Asean Connectivity"), human and drug trafficking, migration, and the protection of low skilled workers, women, children and the disabled.

In addition, Asean now has its own human rights commission, the Asean Inter-governmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR). But the AICHR apparently has only the mandate of promotion, not protection of human rights. The terms of reference (TOR) shamefully make the commission look like a lame duck. The commission does not have the power to hear or investigate cases, to make country visits or even produce fact-finding reports. Indonesia should try to expand the AICHR's connection with Asean in order to build a pro-human rights atmosphere and shape the draft of the Asean Human Rights Declaration.

Another issue that sooner or later will get regional attention again is democratic development in Burma. The assessment of the future political situation in Burma and how Asean can improve its relationship with the recalcitrant member are big tests.

The question is whether Indonesia has the will to take a lead. If yes, what are the complications of becoming the regional leader?

Jakarta is the centre of Asean diplomacy, where the Asean Secretariat is located and the Asean permanent representatives and ambassadors to Asean reside. This gives Indonesia leverage to raise attention, discuss issues, call for meetings and create regional direction.

If Indonesia is willing to lead, the principles of the "Asean Way" such as consensus, consultation and non-intervention should be eased in order to shift the regional environment from passive to proactive and more effective. This will irritate Asean members that prefer domestic politics to remain within borders even when they infringe on the regional values of democracy and human rights.

Indonesia will start increasing its military spending this year from around 1 per cent of GDP to 1.5 per cent by 2014. Some Asean members have showed support for this increase and even complimented it as a way to enhance the capacity of Asean defence, particularly in the Malacca Strait.

Building up armed forces and modernising the defence sector always raises a red flag to neighbours. Indonesia does not want to send the wrong signal or set off an arms race in the region. Closer defence cooperation among members will possibly assuage this concern.

The expansion of Indonesian leadership together with the increase in its military budget may shake the balance of power in Asean and ignite fears of a self-proclaimed regional leader, because Asean has never endorsed the creation of a responsible de facto regional leader like Germany in the EU or the United States in Nato. When a country has obvious newfound power, people certainly expect something out of that privilege. It is hard for Indonesia to create a new regional atmosphere while maintaining complementary, not competing, cooperation, but so far the signs have been good.

Sarinna Areethamsirikul is a lecturer at Naresuan University's Bangkok campus.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2011/03/22/opinion/Can-Indonesia-become-the-central-leader-of-Asean-30151407.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Nationmultimediacom-Opinion+%28NationMultimedia.com+-+Opinion%29