Not So Great Expectations for U.S. Diplomats in Burma

Not So Great Expectations for U.S. Diplomats in Burma
By Robert Horn / Bangkok Wednesday, Nov. 04, 2009

The first high-level team of U.S. diplomats to visit Burma in 14 years met with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi in Rangoon on Wednesday in what some hope may signal the first steps towards breaking the political deadlock that has gripped Burma for more than 20 years. But Burma analysts said any positive developments from the mission would depend upon the man the Americans did not meet — Burma's reclusive military leader Gen. Than Shwe.

Instead, Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his deputy Scot Marciel met with Prime Minister Thein Sein, who wields little actual political power, in the inland capital of Nyapyidaw on the second day of their two day visit. They later flew to Rangoon to confer with 1991 Nobel Peace Prize winner Suu Kyi, who was allowed to travel from the home where she has spent 14 of the past 20 years under arrest, to a downtown hotel where the diplomats were staying. (See pictures of Burma's slowly shifting landscape.)

"Our expectations are modest,'' says Aung Zaw, editor of The Irrawaddy, an influential Thailand-based magazine on Burma affairs. "We've seen these on-again, off-again discussions many times before with the United Nations and the European Union, among others.'' Real change, he said, could only come from Than Shwe, the supreme leader since 1992 of the military committee that rules the country and calls itself the State Peace and Development Council. Describing Burma as an oligarchy, he says that if Than Shwe had the political will, "He could solve 40 years of Burma's problems in four hours.''





The visit is the second meeting between the nations' diplomats since President Barack Obama announced in September that his administration would pursue a policy of engaging the generals who rule the country, rather than rebuffing them. The first meeting took place several weeks ago in New York City. Burma has been under military rule since 1962, and since the bloody suppression of a democracy uprising in 1988, the U.S. has incrementally reduced contacts with the regime and increased sanctions against it for its record of human rights violations and quashing democracy. Larry Dinger, thecharge d'affairs at the U.S. embassy in Rangoon, was quoted in the state-run Myanmar Times this week as saying that Washington wanted to make progress on "important issues" but would maintain sanctions "until concrete progress is made." The State Department has referred to the trip as a "fact-finding mission."

The regime blames Suu Kyi for having called for sanctions in the past. She has said she is open to rescinding the call if the regime agrees to engage in a genuine dialogue with her, her party and ethnic minorities. The junta is planning on holding elections next year for the first time since 1990, when they lost to Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy, by a landslide, and then ignored the results. Suu Kyi has been barred from participating in the upcoming poll, and unless she is pardoned, will still be under house arrest when it takes place. Thein Sein recently told Southeast Asian diplomats that the terms of her could be eased if she "behaved." (See the world's top 10 contested elections.)

The Obama Administration has said it has changed its approach because sanctions alone have not worked in bringing about change in the isolated and impoverished nation. For their part, the generals are interested in improving relations because they are overly reliant on China, which has major investments in Burma, as an ally. The junta wants sanctions removed and their upcoming elections to be regarded as legitimate.

Debbie Stothard, executive director of ALTSEAN, an activist network involved in Burma issues, urged the two American diplomats to stand firm on democracy and human rights during their visit this week. "The regime won't like it, but they will respect the U.S. more for it. They will know that the U.S. can't be pushed around or fooled like the Association of Southeast Asian nations,'' she says. ASEAN, which admitted Burma as a member in 1997, has advocated a course of "constructive engagement" as a way of moderating the regime's behavior, including expanding economic and business ties. Stothard says that policy has failed, as evidenced by what she calls "an all-time high in the number of political prisoners and a spike in military aggression against the country's ethnic minorities.' '

Aung Zaw credits Campbell, who specializes in East Asian and Pacific affairs for the White House, with being well-informed on Burma issues. It was unlikely the regime could pull the wool over his eyes, as it has done with other prominent visitors, he says. "Campbell met and listened to everyone, whether they were Burman, ethnic minorities, pro-regime or anti-regime. Everyone was pleased with that."

Read more: http://www.time. com/time/ world/article/ 0,8599,1934441, 00.html?xid= rss-world# ixzz0VtVfn6Et

============ ========= ========= =