Burma hesitant over Suu Kyi: analysts နွင့္ ကၽြန္ေတာ့္အျမင္

ဗမာစစ္အာဏာရွင္ေတြကသူတို ့ကိုယ္ကိုသူတို ့သိပ္ခိုင္ေနျပီဆိုျပီးျပင္ပဖိအားေပးတာေတြကိုသိပ္ဂရုမစိုက္
ေတာ့ပါဘူး အခု အမိန္ ့ခ်မဲ့ရက္ေနာက္ေရႊ ့လိုက္တာကေတာ့ ၈၈၈၈ ေန ့နဲ ့တိုက္ေနလို ့ေနာက္ထပ္ ၈၈၈၈
ေန ့လိုမ်ိုုုဳးလူထုအုံႀကမႈမျဖစ္ေအာင္လို ့ယူဆပါတယ္။ႀကိဳကန္ထားတာေပါ ့ဗ်ာ။ ကၽြန္ေတာ္ကေတာ့အေကာင္း
မျမင္ပါဘူး။ အခ်ိန္ရိွတုံးအားလုံးအားနဲ ့ဝိုင္းတြန္းႀကရင္ေတာ့တခုခုေတာ့ျဖစ္လာမွာပါ္ ျပည္တြင္းမွာအုံႀကြလာေအာင္
ေတာ့မေျပာခ်င္ေတာ့ပါဘူး ကိုယ္က ျပည္ပေရာက္ေနေတာ့ ျပည္တြင္းကရဲေဘာ္ေတြခ်ည္းဘဲေသြးေျမက်ေနတာ့
ကုိယ့္ဘာသာကိုယ္ေတာင္ျပန္ရွက္မိပါတယ္။
ေလးစားစြာျဖင့္-

ဘုန္းလိႈင္

Burma hesitant over Suu Kyi: analysts
Claire Truscott
August 2, 2009 - 12:24PM

Burma's junta showed rare concern for foreign opinion by delaying the Aung San Suu Kyi verdict, but only because it wants to minimise the fallout while pursuing its hard line against her, analysts say.

The postponement of the judgment until August 11 is a sign that normally intransigent military ruler Than Shwe is at least partly considering the domestic and international uproar a long jail term would provoke, they said.

But the regime's apparent indecision over the trial is about balancing its determination to have Suu Kyi locked up during elections next year with its desire to give the trial a veneer of legitimacy abroad, analysts added.

"It's international pressure and they're worried about domestic anger," Thailand-based Burma analyst and academic Win Min told AFP.



Since Suu Kyi was charged in mid-May with breaching the terms of her house arrest after an American man swam uninvited to her house, a trial that was expected to last a few days has become a two-and-a-half- month farrago.

The court has repeatedly put off hearings - helped by frequent appeals by Suu Kyi's defence team - and on Friday said it would not hand down a verdict as expected but would pass judgment later this month instead.

Suu Kyi's lawyers hailed the delay as a sign that the judges have "serious legal problems."

Win Min said domestic anger over the case was worrying the authorities, as evidenced by recent editorials in Burma's state media, which warned people against demonstrating in case of a guilty verdict.

With critics accusing the junta of using the charges against her as an excuse to keep her behind bars during the 2010 elections promised by the ruling generals, the international community has meanwhile kept up the pressure.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called, during a regional meeting in Thailand last month, for Suu Kyi's release and also held out to Burma the carrot of possible US investment.

UN chief Ban Ki-moon visited Burma last month, when Than Shwe refused to let him see Suu Kyi, and in a meeting with Burma's UN ambassador on Thursday Ban pressed for the Nobel Laureate's release, a spokesman said.

The last time Burma bowed to international pressure was in 2008, when it allowed in foreign aid for victims of Cyclone Nargis following another trip by Ban.

But it is close ally China that is likely to have the most sway in the Suu Kyi case - and analysts said Beijing has so far avoided giving overt support with its usual statements that the country's internal affairs are its own business.

"There could be pressure from China. If China said this was an internal matter they (Burma's leadership) would make the (verdict) as they like," Win Min said.

But while the junta was keen to dampen the international outrage, its intentions towards the woman it has kept in detention for nearly 14 of the last 20 years remained the same, said Benjamin Zawacki of Amnesty International.

"They put forward an appearance of fairness by saying 'We just can't reach a decision, this is really hard,' when all along the verdict was scripted months ago," said Zawacki, echoing widespread expectations Suu Kyi will be convicted.

"Also, it's really not in their interests to issue a verdict any time soon ... As soon as they issue a verdict the clock is ticking, but this is just extra time that she's out of the way," he added.

Zawacki, the group's Burma researcher, acknowledged, however, that the international reaction was a factor in the delay if not the likely verdict.

"They're hesitant to send the verdict so close to the criticism they received last month. It would be a little bit strident," he said.

Suu Kyi's international legal counsel, Jared Genser, said the timing of the latest postponement was a clear strategy to bounce the final decision to the quietest time of the year.

"It is in some ways a smart move - push off the verdict until the middle of August when numerous government and United Nations officials around the world will be on vacation," Genser said in a statement.

"But it remains to be seen whether this ploy will work or if anticipation will be heightened in the run-up to the issuance of the verdict."

© 2009 AFP http://news. theage.com. au/breaking- news-world/ burma-hesitant- over-suu- kyi-analysts- 20090802- e5l3.html
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Lawyers still hope Suu Kyi will be 'freed unconditionally'
Yangon, AFP:

Lawyers for Myanmar democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi on Sunday said they still hoped she would be "freed unconditionally", despite widespread fears of a guilty verdict in her prolonged prison trial.

The Nobel peace laureate faces up to five years in jail if convicted on charges of breaching the terms of her house arrest following an incident in which an American man swam across a lake to her heavily-secured villa in May.

The two-and-a-half month trial has provoked international outrage and critics have accused Myanmar's junta of using the intrusion as an excuse to keep her locked up during elections scheduled for 2010.

A verdict had been expected on Friday but judges postponed their pronouncement until August 11, saying they needed time to review the case.

"We hope that she will be freed unconditionally," said Nyan Win, one of Suu Kyi's lawyers and a spokesman for her National League for Democracy (NLD).

"We have nothing much to do. We are just waiting for the next trial date. Tomorrow we will submit an application to the authorities to meet Aung San Suu Kyi and we hope to meet her on Wednesday or Thursday," he said.

He said Suu Kyi, currently detained at Yangon's notorious Insein prison, had instructed her defence team to visit her before August 11.
http://www.deccanhe rald.com/ content/17402/ lawyers-still- hope-suu- kyi.html
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New Article
2 Aug 2009, 1555 hrs IST, PTI

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NEW DELHI: After Iran and North Korea, the next international pariah to be accused of having nuclear ambitions is
Myanmar.

A report in the 'Sydney Morning Herald' on Saturday quotes two Myanmarese defectors as saying that the Myanmar junta was secretly building a nuclear reactor and plutonium extraction facility with North Korea's help, with the aim of acquiring its first nuclear bomb in five years.

According to the report, "The secret complex, much of it in caves tunnelled into a mountain at Naung Laing in northern Burma, runs parallel to a civilian reactor being built at another site by Russia that both the Russians and Burmese say will be put under international safeguards."

One of the defectors was described as an "officer with a secret nuclear battalion in the Burmese army who was sent to Moscow for two years' training". The other, it said, "was a former executive of the leading regime business partner, Htoo Trading, who handled nuclear contracts with Russia and North Korea".

If true, the full weight of international pressure will be brought against Myanmar, said officials familiar with developments. But equally, the information that has been peddled by the defectors is also "preliminary" and could be used by the west to turn the screws on Myanmar- on democracy and human rights issues- in the run-up to the elections in the country in 2010.

In 2002, Myanmar had notified IAEA of its intention to pursue a civilian nuclear programme. Later, Russia announced that it would build a nuclear reactor in Myanmar. There have also been reports that two Pakistani scientists, from the AQ Khan stable, had been dispatched to Myanmar where they had settled down, to help Myanmar's project.

Recently, the David Albright-led ISIS rang alarm bells about Myanmar attempting a nuclear project with North Korean help.

During an ASEAN meeting in Thailand last week, US secretary of state Hillary Clinton highlighted concerns of the North Korean link. "We know there are also growing concerns about military cooperation between North Korea and Burma which we take very seriously," Clinton said.

None of the information supplied is indepth, said sources, but it can be used to raise the temperature and awareness of Myanmar's alleged intentions.

The Australian media report said, "China and other Asian nations recently helped persuade Rangoon to turn back a North Korean freighter, the Nam Kam 1, that was being shadowed by US warships on its way to Burma with an unknown cargo. A month ago, Japanese police arrested a North Korean and two Japanese for allegedly trying to export illegally to Burma a magnetic measuring device that could be used to develop missiles."

According to the report, "A South Korean intelligence expert, quoted anonymously, claimed satellite imagery showed the ship was part of clandestine nuclear transfer and also carried long-range missiles. Shadowed by the US Navy, the vessel eventually turned around and returned home."

The Russian assistance to Myanmar's nuclear programme would be under IAEA safeguards, but not, if Myanmar is pursuing it with North Korea.

Myanmar has proven reserves of uranium, and the technology acquired from North Korea might be used to extract plutonium.

According to reports, the Russian reactor hasn't taken off because Myanmar just has no money. But reportedly over the past 6 years, many Myanmar scientists, technicians and military personnel have received nuclear training in Russia.
http://economictime s.indiatimes. com/Myanmar- building- nuke-reactor- says-media- report/articlesh ow/4848481. cms
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Aug 2, 2009