Kyaw Thu kicked upstairs, junta turns reclusive-MIZZIMA

http://www.mizzima.com/edop/anslysis/1667-kyaw-thu-kicked-upstairs-junta-turns-reclusive.html

by Larry Jagan
Friday, 06 February 2009 20:04

Bangkok (Mizzima) - Burma's top military rulers have begun to show further signs that they have no interest in the international community and its efforts to assist the regime's humanitarian programmes.

The country's No.1 military leader Sr. Gen. Than Shwe has signaled a further retreat from the outside world with the sacking of the deputy foreign affairs minister, Kyaw Thu.

The junta surprised everyone, especially humanitarian agencies, including the UN, and diplomats alike earlier this week by transferring Kyaw Thu -- who is chairman of the Tripartite Core Group (TCG) which coordinates and monitors international assistance and for the country's relief and reconstruction efforts in the wake of Cyclone Nargis which hit the country in May last year -- to become Chairman of the Civil Service Selection and Training Board.



The new post is a minister-level appointment, but is considered an inactive post. "For the time being at least", Kyaw Thu will continue to oversee the TCG and will be present at the crucial 9-month meeting in Bangkok on Monday [9th February], he told senior UN officials in Rangoon. But most diplomat and aid workers involved in the post-Nargis programme were dismayed at the announcement, and remain uneasy about what will happen and the future of the group's work.

Kyaw Thu has become a crucial link between Burma and the outside world in the past nine months. He has chaired the TCG – which brings together ASEAN, the UN and the Burmese government – and manages the government and international relief and reconstruction efforts in Burma.

The former deputy foreign ministers was instrumental in speeding up visa clearances for extra international staff of aid agencies working in Burma, eased access to the Irrawaddy Delta area, and made sure supplies and equipment were brought into the country as quickly as possible – waving a lot of the bureaucratic red tape.

"It is a slap in the face to all of us in the donor community, who have tried to funnel funds into the country to support the post-cyclone work," said a European diplomat based in Bangkok who is responsible for his country's aid programme in Burma.

"Even if Kyaw Thu continues in his role for the time being – his removal from the foreign ministry casts a long, black shadow over future government cooperation with international assistance," he said.

Senior figures in the UN were more sanguine, and told Mizzima that it was necessary to see what happened in the future before jumping to worst-case conclusions. One scenario, that at least one UN consultant suggested, was that actually this may strengthen Kyaw Thu's role in the TCG. The minister has frequently complained in the past to UN officials and diplomats that he was overwhelmed with the work involved in the TCG.

"It's a full-time job, and I cannot concentrate enough on it with my other ministerial duties," he told UN officials several months ago when the last assessment meeting of the TCG was held in Bangkok. Now he's been relieved of all his foreign ministry duties, he could concentrate on the cyclone reconstruction, a UN official mused. That is, if the senior general wanted to continue the current level of engagement with the UN and the international donors.

Kyaw Thu's profile has been rising ever since he took in the task of chairing the TCG. He recently traveled to ASEAN-member nations to meet with ministers and has attended TCG meetings and conferences abroad to raise more assistance for Burma's relief efforts. Earlier this week, he also accompanied the UN special envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, on an inspection tour of the cyclone-affected areas in Irrawaddy.

Sources close to Kyaw Thu, warned Mizzima several weeks ago that he was worried about his future and feared there were those who were trying to have him removed. Some members of the government, especially the information minister General Kyaw Hsan was jealous of the limelight that had fallen on the deputy foreign minister since the Nargis disaster.

The foreign minister, Nyan Win and the other deputy foreign minister, Maung Myint were reportedly jealous of Kyaw Thu's standing in the international community, especially amongst other ASEAN capitals.

"He finally feel foul of the petty jealousies within the regime," a Burmese businessman with close links with the top generals told Mizzima. "The knives have been out for him for some time," he said.

The fact that he was now a civilian in a military government, which only trusts its own kind, would not have helped him either. Although Kyaw Thu served in the 33rd Light Infantry Division, more recently he has become something of a career diplomat, having served as an ambassador to South Africa and India. His father was the late president and scholar Dr Maung Maung – who is believed to have been the key drafter of the current constitution.

But the crucial question now is for the future of relations with the international community – and especially the TCG. Originally set up in June last year, at the international donor conference in Rangoon, it is due to expire in four months time. While the international community, the UN and ASEAN are keen to see its mandate extended, only the Burmese government can decide that.

The fear is that Kyaw Thu's being effectively kicked upstairs may signal the end of the TCG. There are many hardliners, especially the Planning Minister Soe Tha, Science and Technology Minister, U Thaung and Industry 1 Minister Aung Thaung, who have Than Shwe's ear, have been urging an end to cooperate with the international community – and pointing out that few of the promised funds have actually eventuated. They also say that cooperation has not brought any change in the international community's real desire – regime change -- and particular nothing has been done to end sanctions.

Many analysts believe Kyaw Thu may stay in place until June, after which, if the regime does decide to extend the TCG, the hardliner planning minister Soe Tha would replace him. This would mean that the TCG would be maintained but weakened – cooperation with the community would be reduced and a facade maintained, especially in deference to ASEAN.

So far the regime has been non-committal about the future of the TCG. "The issue of extending the life to tripartite core group will be taken into consideration," Prime Minister Thein Sein told Mr. Gambari, according to the state-owned newspaper, The New Light of Myanmar.

"There were talks with the Foreign Affairs minister and the issue will be kept open till June 2009. Measures will be taken as necessary after June 2009," he reportedly said.

Of course Kyaw Thu is not likely to be involved in these discussions. Even the ASEAN secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan is only cautiously optimistic that this tripartite formula is going to have a future.

"Lessons learned from the Tripartite Core Group in its dealing with Cyclone Nargis relief efforts and confidence building measures could provide guidance for future dealings with the Government of Myanmar on other sensitive issues of humanitarian, economic and political nature," he told Mizzima on the eve of Mr. Gambari's visit to Burma last week.

Hints of the future may emerge from Monday's meeting of the TCG, but Kyaw Thu's removal from the foreign ministry cannot be seen as a good-will gesture in the part of the junta, warned a Burmese businessman with strongly links to the regime.