Totalitarian and Isolation: Different Sides of the Same Coin

http://www.tayzathuria.org.uk/bd/2007/6/10/e/nnl.htm
10.06.2007


_ By Nyi Nyi Lwin

The question of whether the ruling military generals are heading Burma towards isolation and distancing the nation from the global order is growing. Recent development of closer relationship with the China and ambition for nuclear possession aided by the Russia is another also controversial. Moving the ministerial offices from Rangoon to Pyinmana without informing neighboring countries, especially the ASEAN, raises uncertainty and suspicions to the region.

Contrarily, some analysts claim that those growing foreign investments in Burma and trading with the neighboring nations are tangible indicators of Burma opening its door for a free market economy. Other observers disagree that the investments and trades are the wary adjustment of power-equilibrium between the neighboring nations.

That China:

The First Secretary Thein Sein of State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and its delegations are visiting Chin, being invited by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China, in June second week. He meets China’s top legislator Wu Bangguo. Both leaders reaffirm to continue bilateral cooperation in “various fields” and build mutual political trust. Thein Sein also meets State Councillor Tang and briefs Burma’s about “7 point roadmap” and resuming National Convention.

The call for the Burmese leaders for the state-visit to China comes in the middle of international pressures to release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and for tangible political reforms. Burma’s watchers mull over Chinese invitation of Thein Sein as unusual move. Before Thein Sein headed to China, the SPDC announces it will resume the National Convention on July 18 to finalize the last chapters of their pro-military constitution. Besides, China along with Russia vetoed Burma’s peace resolution before the United Nations Security Council.

This Russia:

The recent agreement between Burma and Russia to build nuclear reactor and research plants alarms the world. Russia's atomic energy agency Rosatom will assist Burma to build a 10 megawatt nuclear reactor with low enriched uranium consisting of less than 20 percent uranium-235. The United States of America openly warned Russia.

Since several years ago, Kachin local news agencies have reported that joint-ventures of Burma and Russia discovered rich uranium mines in the Kachin State, northern Burma.

In fact, Burma has enough energy for domestic consumption. Burma has discovering large onshore and offshore gas and oil fields. It has signed several contract agreements with China and Thailand to build hydro-electric power plants in Karen state and Shan state. It even earns 20% of its revenues from the gas sales to its neighboring countries, especially to Thailand.

Those ASEAN:

Despite to Burmese generals’ bad behaviour, Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) includes Burma in its forum by adopting “constructive engagement” rhetoric. The interest of the generals is to use ASEAN as a shell to protect itself from international pressure. In recent years after lack of political development, the patience is running out among ASEAN members. The association recently released a joint statement with the European Union to call for an end of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s house arrest. Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong urges international community in June during 6th Shangri-La dialogue held in Singapore that ASEAN should not be taken hostage to Burma’s political and human rights violations. ASEAN even announces it will not defend Burma in the international community.

It’s Burma:

The mindset of military generals is tyrannical blind-nationalism and isolationist. In opposite, leaders of democracy movements and ethnic nationalities seek freedom, democracy, and justice. These two sides clash in ideology, in terms of policy and strategy. The opposition wants to open up the country. They want to solve political problems via political means, in the form of peaceful transition. The call for tripartite dialogue by the opposition since 1994, and later endorsed by United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), is their current strategic position.

On the other hand, the military generals respond to the opposition with isolation, cutting off Burma from the globe. At the same time, they arrest political leaders, control business, and attack ethnic nationalities forces. They modernize their weapons and military technology. China and Russia are in conspiracy with the generals who vigorously oppose the western nations. India is trying to penetrate into the conspiracy by providing a few weapons and surveillance planes.

In the end, only the people of Burma are suffering.

What Next:

US President George W. Bush announces in Europe that the cold war is over. It means the conflict between the US led block and the Russian led block is no more. Concurrently, regional power grouping among the so-called Third World, non-allied nations, is growing in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Both US and Russia are trying to influence the non-allied nations, under the rhetorical approach of with-us or not-with-us. In addition, China’s growing economic and military power is absorbing the non-allied nations. This tri-bock power competition cannot be ignored to understand the Burmese general’s pursuit of isolation.

To end Burma's isolation, there are many exits. One of the exits is tri-partite dialogue in Burma—ruling generals, the opposition National League for Democracy and Ethnic Nationalities Council should talk to find a common ground. And, China, India, and ASEAN should discuss Burma’s problem during the coming APEC meeting this year. The US and Europe can facilitate the talks. In broader sense, the United Nations should sponsor for 6 Party Talks; ASEAN, Burma, China, India, Europe, and the United States of America, without preconditions.

In fact, the eventual change in Burma will happen internally. The international forum can be a meaningful auxiliary of acute changes. Both internal and external forces are equally important to end Burma’s isolation.

(Nyi Nyi Lwin is head of ENC-Economic and Development Planning Committee and Advisor of Arakan National Council)