The Burmese junta's true color

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/11/14/opinion/opinion_30088389.php

EDITORIAL
The Burmese junta's true color
By The Nation
Published on November 14, 2008


When the Burmese junta decided to jail the 14 pro-democracy leaders of the 1988 generation to 65 years old each, or in other word life sentence, it was clear that the junta leaders want to challenge the whole world community to respond. The junta leaders know full well for now on it could do anything to any person who is considered a threat. Indeed, the Rangoon leaders are getting stronger by the day and become even more dictatorial in its approach and suppression.


It is amazing as well that the harsh jail sentences came at the time there are debates on whether the UN, international relief agencies should continue to engage Burma and continue to provide humanitarian aid in the post-Nargis. After the disaster in May, Burma has received overwhelming sympathy from around the world, foreign assistance have poured in to help the suffering Burmese villagers in the Irrawaddy Delta. Medical supplies and others items such as small tractors and other necessities also come to Burma. The point here is the Burmese junta could not care less about the international community. Its leaders happen to know the limits of international cooperation. Once it involves their own national interests, they would be discreet, for fear of further exposure.



Like it or not, the Burmese decision would pose a challenge to the incoming US president- elect Barack Obama. His vice president-elect, Joseph Biden, has a long history of support tough legislatures in the Congress in the past several years. The latest JADE ACT, which banned the import of Burmese jewelry, was also the product of collaboration of him and among key law makers. Throughout the Bush administration, the Burma situation has been a non-partisan issue in the Congress. President George W Bush and First Lady Laura Bush have been rather passionate about the plight of Burma. On their latest visit to Thailand in Augusty, they met with the Burmese dissidents and visit camps along Thai-Burmese border. They have done a great job in keeping the Burmese junta on the radar screen in Washington and the rest of the world. Now with Obama, it would be interesting to watch if the US can cooperate with China and India as well as Asean to improve the situation in Burma. Obama has said that he would use dialogue and negotiation to end deadlocks on issues the US encounters.

Intuitively, Burma is playing with the international shifting sentiment, which is very temperamental at best. In the time of global economic crisis, it would be difficult to discuss the Burmese suffering. After the Saffron Revolution last September, the sympathy from around the world increased towards the democratic groups operating inside Burma. Everybody thought that they would be able to embed further democratic values. Then, the May devastation caused by the Cyclone Nargis turned schemes of things inside Burma upside down. At first the catastrophe was a curse but later on it turned out to be a blessing because now the junta with a bigger coffer, thanked to influx of foreign currencies and aid; and it is stronger and is more determined to stay the course and annihilated all, both young and old, elements that challenge the regime.

The junta is proceeding with its seven-point roadmap with a planned election in 2010. Of course, the outcome is predictable at the moment. But it wants to be sure that in the next polls in 2010 there would be no surprise liked the one in 1990 when the opposition won a landslide votes. Sad to say, the junta leaders are not yielding because they realize that there is a high level of hypocrisy out there in the world. If they stick together and their leadership left unchallenged and do not crack on pressure, nobody can do anything about it. Changes will come only when the opposition groups or the rest of the world accept the junta's terms and conditions. Even at that kind of dire state, many observers continue to back the arguments that the Burmese regime should be engaged, no matter what because there is no other option.

Finally, it is obvious after the planned election in 2010, Burma plans to resume its Asean chairmanship, which it skipped in 2005, succeeding Vietnam. That would be the best of time because by that time there would be a surrogate government in place.