Russian crisis could slip from Kremlin's grip: experts

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MOSCOW: The ruble is losing value, thousands of jobs are being cut and Russia's oil boom is over: after years of economic and political stability,
the Kremlin could be losing its grip, experts said.

Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin this week admitted that lower oil prices meant Russia's financial reserves could run dry next year, while Kremlin economic aide Arkady Dvorkovich conceded the ruble could slip further.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has meanwhile been berating the country's banks for not passing credits granted by the state on to ailing banks and companies in the wider economy, accusing them of "corporate egoism".

For ordinary Russians lulled into a sense of greater security - at least compared to the upheavals of the 1990s - by the sound economic management under ex-president Putin, the financial crisis has come as a shock.

Opinion polls in recent days show more and more people are feeling the effects of the crisis as Russian industrial giants suffer from the slump in global demand and credits that helped fuel Russia's boom dry up.

The All-Russia Centre for the Study of Public Opinion said on Thursday that seven times as many Russians saw their quality of life deteriorating in November as in September, and five times as many had noted unemployment rising.

In a poll in October, the Levada Centre found that normally sky-high confidence in the government had gone down from 66 percent to 59 percent since September, and Medvedev's popularity was down from 83 to 76 per cent.

And just as economic worries rise, President Dmitry Medvedev is pushing a constitutional reform through parliament that he says will boost Russia's political stability but that analysts say is paving the way for Putin's return.

The reform involves extending presidential terms from four to six years. Analysts say it could lead to early elections that would be won by Putin and some accuse the Kremlin of a power grab that could not come at a worse time.

"The Kremlin does not realize the seriousness of the situation and lacks a plan for dealing with the financial crisis," said Nikolai Petrov, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Centre, writing in the Moscow Times newspaper.
"The authorities are preoccupied with something they personally find much more important - planning out a change in leadership," he said.

Vladimir Ryzhkov, a liberal commentator, said in a recent editorial: "The Kremlin wants to rush legislation to extend the presidential term to make sure the Constitution is changed before the financial turmoil snowballs."

Yulia Latynina, a commentator on political and economic affairs, said the financial crisis would now be blamed on Medvedev, who would be forced to resign and leave the path wide open for Putin's return to the presidency.

"There is going to be a major devaluation, then Medvedev is going to take responsibility and resign and the saviour will step in," Latynina said, referring to the much-discussed possibility of further ruble devaluation.

"The authorities are quite worried. I think Medvedev is being put in a role in which he will have to answer for everything. The main thing is who is to blame. Medvedev, America and the liberals are going to be guilty," she said.

Referring to the recent problems encountered by the authorities in getting state money to ailing banks and companies, she said: "They're not in a condition to control what's happening to the money. There's no trust.

"There's a Soviet economy where you can command. There's a market economy where you can't. The hybrid only survives if oil prices are high."

Russia still relies strongly on export revenues from oil and gas and has taken a hit as oil prices have fallen to a low of around 50 dollars per barrel. The Russian budget is balanced when the oil price is around 70 dollars.