What to do about Burma

http://asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1557&Itemid=168

Written by Nehginpao Kipgen
Thursday, 20 November 2008
The US appears ready to move beyond sanctions


With years of sanctions following years of sanctions that have had little effect on Burma's leaders, the US government has apparently shifted to a new policy with the creation by the Congress of a post for policy chief for Burma to increase pressure on the junta.

That was followed by the announcement by the White House on November 10 of the nomination of Michael Green, who has served as a senior director for Asian Affairs on President George W. Bush’s National Security Council, to the position.

According to the legislation passed by the Congress, the policy chief is to consult with the governments of China, India, Thailand and Japan, members of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the European Union to coordinate international strategy to see if they can move the junta into a more reasonable stance than its hard-line refusal to allow the Burmese even a modicum of democracy.


Whether this maneuver brings vigor to the Burmese democratic movement is a question remains to be seen, however. Green, long involved with the Burmese situation, should have noticed the quandary over the Burmese political imbroglio, especially the futility of conflicting approaches by the international community. Sanctions have little impact on the military regime due to engagements by neighboring countries, notably China, India and members of ASEAN. Nor have popular uprisings had any effect. They have been tasted twice, in 1988 and in 2007. Both events were brutally crushed by the military with force.

There is no doubt about the U.S. sanctions hurting the military generals and also the general public. Had there been a coordinated international approach, Burma could have been different today. It must be difficult for the US government to abandon its traditional policy of isolating the Burmese generals and start engaging with them. But they have to realize that sanctions alone are not effective in resolving Burma’s crisis when there is engagement on the other end.

While sanctions are in place, the new envoy can start initiating a ‘carrot and stick’ policy by working together with key international players. The one similar to the North Korean six-party talks model which involved United States, North Korea, China, Japan, Russia and South Korea should be given emphasis on Burma. The hard work of the US in North Korea has now paid off with North Korea being removed from the State Department’s list of terrorists, and in return, North Korea promised to shut down and dismantle its nuclear facilities.

It was not only the stick that worked but also the carrot. The U.S. offered energy and food assistance to the North Korean leadership. A similar initiative could convince Burma’s military generals to come to the negotiating table. The Burmese talks, also a six-party negotiation involving the United States, European Union, ASEAN, China, India, and Burma should be initiated. In the beginning, the junta and some other countries might resist the proposal, but we need to remember that the North Korean talks were also initially not supported by all parties.

Now that the UN Secretary General is heavily involved in the process, the US could garner stronger support from the international community. Without such a move from the U.S., Ban Ki-moon’s 'Group of Friends of the Secretary General on Myanmar' will yield little.

The most effective UN intervention would happen if the Security Council were decide to take action. This scenario is bleak with China and Russia vetoing the move, and likely to do it again if the Burma issue were to come up on the Council’s agenda.

The creation of a U.S. special envoy and policy chief for Burma is a welcome move. With this new position coming into place, the U.S. should start moving beyond imposing sanctions.



Nehginpao Kipgen is the General Secretary of US-based Kuki International Forum (www.kukiforum.com) and a researcher on the rise of political conflicts in modern Burma (1947-2004).



Comments (4)

Observer
written by Redwing , November 20, 2008
Do something? Do what? So far everything that has been tried has been a miserable failure because the world has not taken into consideration the reality in Burma. The generals are in charge and there is nothing that can be done to change that fact in the short run, other than outright invasion and occupation, a la Iraq. Just clamoring for action has no utility whatsoever unless there is a workable strategy for doing something that is effective. So far no one has been able to come up with such a plan. As in Iraq, the first step toward a workable approach must include close cooperation with Burma's neighbors. They do not agree with the western effort to isolate Burma because they have correctly argued from the outset that this will not work. Unless the international community can come up with a better alternative than this there is no hope of success in developing a common policy more aligned with the facts on the ground.
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WHEN?
written by David Calm , November 20, 2008
DO SOMETHING NOW!!! The people are suffering. Enough is enough. These monster generals have played their selfish game for far too long. The Burmese people deserve freedom and opportunity. WORLD UNITE!
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As the world faces new economic challenges, we still need to remember and try to help in places like Burma
written by Keerock Rook , November 20, 2008
True, sanctions have not worked, but the tools available to apply pressure have been limited for the reasons you sited.
Every aspect of Burmese society is infused by a military that has had decades of having its own way.
Along with having raw materials to sell and eager neighbors willing to buy, neighboring countries, like Thailand, are now acting more like Burma in suppressing participatory democracy among their own people.
The attempt by UN Secretary General to call the top Burmese General to help get aid to the Burmese people during the cyclone illustrates the challenges. The general wouldn't answer the phone or return the call.
Having said that any effort to help the Burmese people is worth a try.


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Observer
written by Redwing , November 20, 2008
Why would the Burmese generals want to negotiate with anyone at this point.? Western sanctions hurt the Burmese people much more than the leadership, who are buttresed by the sale of gas and other commodities to their friends in China and India. This is more wishful thinking, of the type that has failed for the last 20 years. The US and other western countries will have to come up with a much more innovative approach if they expect to promote meaningful change in Burma. That will have to start wthl accepting that this will be a slow and gradual process which will require some accommodation with the Burmese military leadership in the short run. Otherwise they are just continuing to spin their wheels.
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